Training module on vulnerability assessment (II)

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  • 東南アジアでは、色々は災害が考えられる。しかし、だからといって、脆弱だとは限りません。
  • KonsepKerentananperubahaniklimterhadapproduksipadidi Bali berdasarkantiga sub komponenyaitu exposure, sensitivity, dan adaptive capacity. Nilaieksposuredidapatkandari data kesesuaianlahanberdasarkananalisis data hujandansuhu. Sedangkannilaisensitivitasdarisebarandaerahtanamanpaditerkini.Nilai Adaptive Capacity diperolehdari 2 cycle cropping, lowland, organic & inorganic fertilizer, infari 13 seed, inorganic fertilizer, cooperative, agriculture training, ownership of land.
  • Kejadian El Nino dapatmenyebabkanmundurnyaawalmusimhujandansemakinkeringnyamusimkemaraudiwilayah Indonesia,termasukdaerah Bali.Hal inilah yang dapatmempengaruhikondisipertaniandi Bali.
  • Berdasarkanhasilpenelitian Naylor dkkmenunjukkanbahwaketikaterjadi El Nino beberapadaerahJawadan Bali mengalamiketerlambatanAwalMusimHujansekitar 1 bulanataulebihdanhaltersebutmenyebabkanmenurunnyaproduktifitaspadisekitar6.5% untukjawabaratdantengahserta 11% untukJawatimurdan Bali.
  • Berdasarkanhasilpengamatan, jikaterjadipenurunancurahhujansebesar 20 % selamabulan April-JunidapatmengurangidaerahtanamdiJawadan Bali sekitar 2 %. Saatini, hanyasedikitdaerah yang untuktanampadiselamamusimkemarau, akantetapiterlambatnyamusimpolatanamdapatberubahjikacurahhujanselamaperiodeinibertambahatauberkurangsecarasignifikanin the future.
  • DiperlukanperhatiankhususterhadapKejadian El Nino inidikarenakandapatmenyebabkanterlambatnyaawalmusimsekitar 2 bulanSelainitu, ENSO dapatdigunakansebagaiindeksuntuktanamanpadidanjagungdi Indonesia {Boer, R. 2009}. Dimananilaikorelasinegatifantaraproduksipadidansuhumukalaut yang artinyaketikasuhumukalauttinggimakaproduksipadirendah.
  • 二毛作
  • Training module on vulnerability assessment (II)

    1. 1. Vulnerability concepts & Exercise Dr. Takeshi Takama takeshi.takama@sei-international.org
    2. 2. Today’s story Vulnerability concepts VA on rice in Bali Exercise
    3. 3. VULNERABILITY CONCEPTS
    4. 4. Climate related disasters Disaster = Exposure ≠ Vulnerability
    5. 5. Vulnerability Concepts 2 Outcome Vulnerability Contextual Vulnerability hazard Exposure Sensitivity Impact Adaptative Capacity Vulnerability to climate change Identify issues, context, purpose, system
    6. 6. Vulnerability Concept hazard Exposure Sensitivity Impact Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability to climate change
    7. 7. Exposure - - Vulnerability Assessment Maps Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
    8. 8. VULNERABILITY AND PADDY PRODUCTION
    9. 9. Climate change in Bali (SRES A2 2046-65) Max Temp. ~2℃ Min Temp.
    10. 10. Adaptation measures: 1. Agriculture = 23 2. Water = 20 3. Coastal zone = 15 4. Forestry = 12 5. Health = 11 Climate Change impacts in Indonesia: Based in 10 policy reports incl. RPJMN, ICCSR, NARASI e.g. “Develop drought early warning system” in National Action Plan 2007 e.g. “impact study of climate change to the agriculture” in ICCSR 2009 & National Action Plan 2007
    11. 11. KLH, 2010. Indonesia 2nd National Communication (UNFCCC). 22% of rice production in Bali/East Java Short wet season Important & vulnerable? Climate Change Strategies Project Sub-pro: Vulnerability assessment
    12. 12. VULNERABILITY AND PADDY PRODUCTION
    13. 13. Historical rice production in Bali Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Paddy Harvested area (ha) 155,049 147,942 148,025 145,294 142,663 141,577 7% 150,557 145,030 143,999 Paddy area Production rate (quintal/ha) Production (ton) 53.33 826,838 53.35 789,232 54.70 809,688 54.60 8% 793,260 55.00 788,361 55.00 785,481 Not 56.00 840,891 sure 58.00 839,775 58.37 840,465 X productivity = ?
    14. 14. Soil-climate suitability for paddy Paddy soil-climate suitability 1990-1999 20 % Paddy soil-climate suitability 2000-2009 Soil-climate Suitability by 20% in 20 years = productivity?
    15. 15. “always have enough water” “Not enough water, only 1 harvesting” “20% became housing” “not enough water , so need to rotate rice and crop ” “we never fail rice for 20 years” Conclusion: Rice production decline?
    16. 16. SENSITIVITY
    17. 17. Green is paddy
    18. 18. Paddy soil-climate suitability 1990-1999 Paddy soil-climate suitability 2000-2009 Suitability/Rain (Exposure⇧) If there is Paddy Production loss (Vulnerability⇧)
    19. 19. ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
    20. 20. Different production levels with different factors Totally ~ 53 kg/acre Totally ~ 45 kg/acre Agricultural training = 4kg 15%  27%  cooperative = 5kg Agricultural training = 4kg 2 cycle paddy production = 9kg With Infari 13 seed = 6kg Average low Average low productive productive farmer = 35kg farmer = 35kg 12%  19% 
    21. 21. Potential weighting factors for adaptive capacity 2 cycle Lowland 0.27 0.26 Organic &Inorga nic 0.26 Infari 13 0.19 Inorganic Coopera tive 0.17 0.15 Training Owner 0.12 0.09 Stronger tons/ha In-&organic = 4.45 Inorganic = 2.51 (Increasing 77.3%) In-&organic = 5.28 Inorganic = 3.52 (increasing 50%) enhanced by 21% and 24% Resource Year Place IPB 2008-2009 Bogor BPTP/South Sulawesi 2004 Buru Island (Maluku) Nanjing Agricultural Uni 1987-2005 Tai Lake Region, China
    22. 22. VULNERABILITY MAPS
    23. 23. Exposure Vulnerability decrease as northern/eastern part get drier
    24. 24. Sensitivity
    25. 25. AC in livelihood zones
    26. 26. Adaptive Capacity
    27. 27. Vulnerability in 20 years
    28. 28. VULNERABILITY MATRIX
    29. 29. 1. Select units affected 2. Select disasters 3. Rank them 4. Choose 3 units
    30. 30. Scaling the impact on exposure units 3 = significant impact on the exposure unit 2 = medium impact on the exposure unit 1 = low impact on the exposure unit 0 = no impact on the exposure unit
    31. 31. Terminologies Exposure unit Ecosystem service Livelihood ecosystem Soil water balance Smallholder farmers activities Water supply Emerging farmers livelihood Grazing and fodder Market traders
    32. 32. Fishery Exposure units 1. Ecosystem services 2. Livelihood activates 3. Livelihood Water Floods Heavy rain Farming land Drought Potential disasters
    33. 33. Thank you very much! Dr. Takeshi Takama
    34. 34. Risky without proper Risky without proper timing. variety selection. Abnormal climate (El Nino) Delayed wetseason Drier dryseason
    35. 35. 11% In Bali NAYLOR, R.L., BATTISTI, D.S., VIMONT, D.J., FALCON, W.P. and BURKE, M.B., 2007. Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture
    36. 36. 2% In Bali NAYLOR, R.L., BATTISTI, D.S., VIMONT, D.J., FALCON, W.P. and BURKE, M.B., 2007. Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture
    37. 37. Temporal sensitivity More Need to focus Delayed wet-season Drier dryseason Less
    38. 38. 5 most and 5 least productive villages 100.00% 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% two.cyc lowlan le d infari only.in cooper agritrai organic ative n owner Most productive 71.43% 100.00% 22.86% 11.43% 51.43% 91.43% 62.86% Least productive 6.90% 24.14% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 48.28% 34.48%
    39. 39. Rice production in Indonesia Production x 2 in 30 years Dec - Mar Wet Slow down in production Dry Population 300M in 2045 Sep - Nov May - July Food security
    40. 40. 5K Kms & 18K islands 230M people Agro, T ourism, Fissile Fast grow Indonesia Diverse , variable Big emerging Climate relate Vulnerable?

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