CORDIO started in 1999 as a regional network withcoordination nodes in Sweden, Kenya, Sri Lankaand SeychellesCORDIO East Africa… not‐for‐profit research organisation.
Mainly note that the alert is available on the website and each two-week update is sent an email list.Observations start at the beginning of the bleaching season, and end in May/June depending on the severity of bleaching.
Past year’s alerts are being analyzed in three geographic belts – south, central and north.Accuracy of the alerts can be analysed by coding them, and coding the bleaching observations reported …Graphs of the alert levels by month, and bleachaing observations by month …
WD-NACE data gathering approach #2 – ECOSYSTEM HEALTH The necessity of a multi-level framework for understanding coastal managementDavid Oburawith Stephen Oluoch, Brigid Mibei, Innocent 27th September 2012 London, UKWanyonyi, Risper OtekeCORDIO East Africa;www.cordioea.net;firstname.lastname@example.orgPrincipal partner – Kenya Marine andFisheries Research InstituteDr. Renison Ruwa, Khyria Karama,Emmanual Mbaru, Stephen Mwakiti
Overview of CORDIOCoastalOceansResearch &DevelopmentIndianOcean
• CORDIO project/network - Initiated in 1999 as a direct response to the 1998 El-Nino = caused mass bleaching & mortality of corals in Indian Ocean.• CORDIO East Africa - registered in Kenya in 2003 as a non-profit company, based in Mombasa, Kenya• Focus on coral reefs – biological, resource use, socio-economic, management, policy, education• Conservation of marine and coastal ecosystems in WIO• Generating knowledge to find solutions that benefit both ecosystems and people.
Project scopeKenya activities• Characterize the marine environment (for understanding ecosystem services at the project site), based on existing information (PI time)• Support data collection for social/porverty component and decision-making support analysis (2 Scope of activities/budget support workshop including fieldwork and staff time supported) • October 2010 – project inception• Develop framework for modelling – • January 2011 – 1st project workshop in domain, ABM (PI and staff time) Kenya • September 2011 – field data collection, supervized by N. Matin • June 2012 – modelling workshop in Mombasa, led by Richard Taylor, Howard Noble • September 2012 – final workshops – London, Bangladesh, Kenya
Ecosystem services Poverty AlleviationEcosystems are the foundations of goods and services in local to national economies
The reef ecosystem – the primary system in theKenya case studyThe coral reef ecosystem –Is highly biodiverse andbiologically productive Provides diverse resources that sustain fisheries and other economic activities Supports many diverseProvides renewable cultural and aestheticphysical protection values of coastal societiesfor tropical coastlines
These are undermined, forexample by coral bleaching Coral bleaching is a tress response – can lead to death Bleaching is the loss of zooxanthellae (commonly 60-90% loss); and/or Reduction in photosynthetic pigments in zooxanthellae (50-80% loss) Bleaching is caused by: temperature + UV light salinity change disease sedimentation pollution Bleaching is patchy because: • Susceptibility differs by species & location • Some areas are resistant or resilient
From organism/ecological impacts to ecosystem servicesFunctions within the Functions at the communitycoral-algal symbiosis; e.g. level; e.g. habitat creation,reproduction, growth – nutrient cycling, microbial‘local’ or small scale metabolism Wild et al. 2011impacts
A primary interest is on fish – fisheriesA big unknown – climate impacts on fish translating into impactson fisheries/food production- Direct effects on fish biology- Population/community level shifts Sumaila et al, 2011- Extinction riskThe main reef fisheryspecies not sovulnerable to climatechangeBut no studies havebeen done on this inthe WIO
Potential modelling framework A) Unexploited resource Multi-species, full size range, full biomass Also – coral/algae as community indicators INDICATORS # species, biomass, size r0 r1 B) Sustainably exploited resource Multi-species, full size range, lower biomass Fishers Gears C) Over-exploited resource Effort Fewer-species, smaller sizes, low biomass D) Degraded resource Few-species, small, very low biomass
Temperature – wind – rain The broader IO is warming at approx. 0.1oC per decade, with some hotspots (Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea, SW Madagascar)Decadal trend in SST (sea surfacetemperature) – Rouault, pers. comm. Increased wind stress may result in higher rainfall over the ocean, but less inland (East Africa). But stronger ENSO/IOD signals dominate the pattern, with increased rainfall in the short rains and decreased rainfall in the long rains.Decadal trend in surface windstress in theIndian Ocean. Backeberg et al. 2012.
Rainfall patterns already changingSource: Tanzania Meteorological DeptMajambo Jarurmani, MSc, Univ. ofCape Town/CORDIO Long rains – March-May, not much change Short rains – October - December, increasing dry spells. But long range forecast is for more rain in the short rains and less in the long rains
In what ways are coastalcommunities vulnerable to Humanclimate change? Social FinancialSocial vulnerability analysis – tovarious climate factors (rain,temp, seasons) Natural PhysicalEmbed this process in aSustainable Livelihoods Approach(SLA) and Sustainable LivelihoodsEnhancement and Diversification(SLED) framework
Prioritize climate hazards – existing and potential coping strategies (CRiSTAL)Fishers vs. farmers (within the same community)
Priority climate hazardsRelevant to all: Climate variability, in the language of “the people” …• High rainfall/floods• Strong windsRelevant to fishers:• Strong wavesRelevant to farmers/others• No rainfall/drought/heat Distant seconds: - Coral bleaching - Mangrove recession/erosion - Fishery species changes We are not looking at the right things!
Climate hazard - forecasting WIO bleaching product, CORDIO www.cordioea.net/bleachingalert 1) Global indicators 2) Regional/inter-annual variability indicators 3) 2-week to monthly forward 4) Present state of SST, clouds etc. Three alert levels: 1. ‘watch’ 2. Moderate bleaching 3. Strong bleaching January February March April May JunePrepare for implementation Regular alerts and monitor Assess impact & Assess coral bleaching of response plan conditions in the field recovery
How well does it work? Performance tests: 1. Accuracy 2. Probability of detection 3. Critical success index 4. Piercess skill score 5. Probability of false detection 6. False alarm 7. Bias Three alert levels: 1. ‘watch’ 2. Moderate bleaching Findings: 1. Good performance of Next steps: 3. Strong bleaching level 2 (moderate 1. Expand the relevance bleaching) and level 3 by covering primary (strong bleaching) hazards to coastal forecasts communities – storms, rainfall, dry/wet spells 2. With higher number of subregions, problem is of 2. Partnership with network reports of – regional climate OBSERVED RESULTS institutes (ICPAC – Greater Horn of Africa), UNESCO-IOC, national meterological depts.
Informed decision-makingThese provide the ecosystem/resource foundation orbasis for deeper analysis of the primary social work –• Participatory approaches - decision mapping, poverty analyses, etc.• Information layers for models - BMU Agent Based Model Pointers to next steps – Assessment of Key Ecosystem Services for integrated coastal zone management planning for Poverty Alleviation (AKESPA) • Produce an integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) framework • Use it to identify (and collect/derive) ‘missing’ data relating to ecosystem functioning, services, and benefit • Multiple modelling approaches (modules – GIS (spatial, structure), stock-flow (Stella), agents (NetLogo) • Simplicity/elegance of indicators, and relationships between different modules in the GIS/models