Nepal vulnerability assessment and indicatorsPresentation Transcript
Vulnerability indicators and mapping: Nepal Ruth Butterfield and Fernanda ZermoglioRead more on weADAPT at http://weadapt.org/knowledge-base/vulnerability/nepal-vulnerability-assessment
Figure 1: District-wise distribution of estimated loss due to these WRDs in Nepal (Thapa, 2006)
Source: DHM ( 2002, 2004-2006) Year Adverse Weather conditions 2002 Western Half of the country influenced by dry spell till end of July while the eastern half was havocked by floods. 2004 Southern plains of Far and Mid western regions recorded <75% of the normal rainfall while the eastern Terai experienced dry spell followed by heavy rainfall in July. The effect of drought was almost double than that of the floods. About 215 thousand hectares agriculture land in 10 districts in Western and Mid Western regions were affected by the deficit in rainfall. While, about 111 thousand hectares agriculture land was affected by floods in the Terai plains of Eastern and Central regions. 2005 Late onset and weak initial phase of monsoon caused a drought-like weather condition affecting the early stage of paddy planting. Only 45-85% of rice planting was completed by the end of August in the east. Eight eastern districts were the worst affected in terms of rice plantation. 2006 Dry winter. The country received less than 25% of the normal winter rain, affecting winter crops. The monsoon was also weak. June, July and August remained dry, except flooding in July in the Mid and Far Western regions. Because of this, eastern regions experienced drought and western regions were affected bt floods, both of these affecting the agriculture. Nine districts of the Terai (Southern plains) region were declared as dry regions for the first time in .
Livelihood profiles and principal livelihood activities of sampled households in 2005 takenfrom Nepal:Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis, WFP, vam, 2005 Livelihood Profile No. of % Primary Share Secondary and sampled Households Tertiary Share Households 1. Agriculture 371 25% Sales of crops Unskilled (76%) labour 2. Unskilled Wage 332 24% Unskilled wage Agriculture and Labour labour (82%) livestock 3. Remittances 280 15% Remittances Agriculture (81%) 4. Salaried & Skilled 291 16% Salaried/skilled Agriculture, Work work (84%) livestock 5. Livestock 172 7% Sales of livestock Agriculture (76%) 6. Petty Trade & 128 6% Petty trade or Brewing, Commerce commerce (81%) Agriculture 7. Natural Resources 76 5% Handicrafts and Other activities &Handicrafts use of natural resources (61%) 8. Government 63 3% Government Agriculture pension assistance (78%)
Proportion of hazards inDes-Inventar Hazards database
Losses $ Year/m DataCa Losses onth rds local$ Mid- Western Region 1980/ 7 1 0 9,400 1992/ 6 1 0 0 1992/ 8 5 0 0 1994/ 8 3 0 22,063 1994/ 9 1 0 0 2001/ 3 2 0 0 2002/ 7 2 0 0 2002/ 8 2 0 0 2003/ 6 1 10,000 0 Western Region 1982/ 9 1 0 0 1992/ 8 1 0 0 1994/ 8 4 0 21,548 2003/ 1 1 0 8,635Table: Drought events nationalSource: Dis Inventar ,Note that the two recent extreme droughts have been in 1992 and 1994 both of which were ENSO years.2003 and 2003 may also have been influenced by the ENSO.
Poverty and development indices Adult Literacy % GDP per capitaAdult literacy % Human development index Educational attainment index
Concern Indicator Data source NotesDimensionHuman Immediate impacts Deaths/ injuries due to Desinventar/ CRED Down to village level climate hazards Affected families Desinventar database Down to village levelNatural Loss natural Area of irrigated land (ha) National sample census District assets/livelihood of agriculture 2001/02Natural Number and area of National sample census District holdings, number of holdings of agriculture 2001/02 reporting and area of land made uncultivable due to flood/soil erosionNatural percentage crop area National sample census District of agriculture 2001/02Natural Sufficiency of agricultural National sample census District produce (number of holdings of agriculture 2001/02 out of total number of holdings))Natural Period of insufficiency National sample census District (months/12) of agriculture 2001/02Natural Loss/fragmentatio farm size (ha) National sample census District n/ Degradation of of agriculture 2001/02 productive landNatural no. holdings with land, National sample census District livestock and poultry of agriculture 2001/02
Physical Loss road network Road density (m/km2) ?Human infant mortality rate Nepal Human District Development Report 2004Physical Cost of damage due to Desinventar database Down to village level hazard eventSocial Population shifts population density, Population census population growth 1981,1991 2001Social Increased poverty Human poverty index Nepal Human District Development Report 2004Social Increase hunger food security index ?Social Access to drinking water (% Nepal Human District households) Development Report 2004Social Access to electricity/radio (% Human Development District households) report 2004Social Impact on health infant mortality rate Nepal Human District Development Report 2004Social Chronic malnutrition in Nepal Human District children under-5 Development Report 2004
Economic Impact on income household income Nepal Human District Development Report 2004 Loss of workforce migration into and out of the Population census 2001 District district/region % population collecting Districts of Nepal District firewood or water as primary Indicators of occupation development 2003, ICIMOD Impact of future Adult literacy (male/ female Nepal Human District prosperity/opportu literacy rate) Development Report nities 2004 agriculture as a percentage Nepal Human of GDP Development Report 2004 agricultural employees (% of Nepal Human District total population) Development Report 2004 Property damaged DesInventar Accessibilty to length of road network or ? markets access to a roadFinancial access to credit Nepal Human and financial Development Report networks 2004
A) tHe number of reported flood events across Nepal, and B) value of lossesB) related to these events available in the DesInventar database for the Nepal
Proportion of inward and outward migration
Proportion of households with access to institutional credit
Crop calendar for main cereal crops cultivated in Nepa l for regions P= Planting; TP= Trans-Planting; H= Harvesting. * Recent option adopted by some farmers in the Eastern region, allowing two paddy crops a year. ** Supplemental irrigation is practiced in the east. For instance, the lower parts of the Hills have similar cropping options as the adjacent Terai. Note that for paddy, maize and millet, the crop calendar is earlier in the Eastern region by approximately one month as compared to Far- and Mid-Western regions. Therefore, for the Eastern region the earlier dates presented in the crop calendar can be utilized while for the Far- and Mid-Western regions, the later dates are accurate. Wheat and barley are not affected. Taken from: Special Report, FAO/WFP food security assessment mission to Nepal, July 2007.
Event frequency of precipitation greater than 150mm over 3 days during period 1971-2000. Pokhara airpor
NUMBER OF FLOODS REPORTED: 1980 TO 20002CASUALTIES RESULTINGFROM FLOOD EVENTS
FIGURE 2: OCCURRENCE OF LANDSLIDES IN NEPAL AND SYANGIA
Priority ranking of climate change impacts for Nepal(takenfrom Development and climate change in Nepal: Focus on water resources and hydropowerby Shardul Agrawala, Vivian Raksakulthai, Maarten van Aalst, Peter Larsen, Joel Smith and John Reynolds. (OECD, 2003) Resource/ranking Certainty of Timing of impact Severity of Importance of impact (urgency) impact resource Water resources and High High High High Hydropower Agriculture Medium-low Medium-low Medium High Human health Low Medium Uncertain High Ecosystems/Biodiversity Low Uncertain Uncertain Medium-high