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Modelling interacting impacts of processes and decisions on ecosystem dynamics. By Dr. Ahmadul Hassan
 

Modelling interacting impacts of processes and decisions on ecosystem dynamics. By Dr. Ahmadul Hassan

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    Modelling interacting impacts of processes and decisions on ecosystem dynamics. By Dr. Ahmadul Hassan Modelling interacting impacts of processes and decisions on ecosystem dynamics. By Dr. Ahmadul Hassan Presentation Transcript

    • Final Workshop onWhole Decision Network Analysis in Coastal Ecosystem (WD-NACE)Modelling Interacting Impacts of Processes and Decisions on Ecosystem Dynamics Presented by Dr Ahmadul Hassan Director, R&D and Training Division, CEGIS ahassan@cegisbd.com Date: 27 September, 2012 London, UK
    • Objectives1. Contextualize knowledge on global climate change into local decision making2. To investigate the spatial and temporal dimensions in land use changes from paddy to shrimp farming in the coastal areas of Bangladesh.3. To develop a framework for estimating the ecosystem health index using Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA). 2
    • Study AreaThree districts:–Satkhira–Khulna–BagerhatArea :1,201,319 haPopulation: 5.74 millionArea of Sundarbans: - 577,000 ha 3
    • Objective 1: Contextualize knowledge on global climate change into local decision making 4
    • Application of Global Knowledge for Local Decision Making Downscaling • NAPA Global into local • BCCSAPModels and context • SNC Tools • Plans and policies • Generate funds 5
    • Observed Trends in Maximum Temperatures 6
    • Observed Trend in sea level rise Hiron Point, Passur River (Source: BIWTA) 2.10 y = 0.005x + 1.739 2.00 R² = 0.324 1.90 1.80 1.70WmneavLrtil 1.60 1.50 7 9 1 8 7 9 1 7 9 1 0 8 9 1 8 9 1 2 8 9 1 3 8 9 1 4 8 9 1 5 8 9 1 6 8 9 1 7 8 9 1 8 9 1 8 9 1 0 9 1 9 1 2 9 1 3 9 1 4 9 1 5 9 1 6 9 1 7 9 1 8 9 1 9 1 0 2 1 0 2 0 2 Year 7
    • Downscaling of Climatic Parameters for Bangladesh IPCC Used 23 GCMs for forecasting global climate Based on the method described in MGICC 8 best suited GCMs for Bangladesh has been selected1. CGCM 3.1 (T47) 5. GFDL-CM 2.0 2.12. CCSM 3.0 6. INM CM-3.0 7. MIROC 3.2 (medres)3. CSIRO-Mk3.0 and4. GFDL-CM 2.0 8. UKMO-HadCM3. 8
    • Climate Change Scenario (Bangladesh) Annual average changes Temperature PrecipitationEmission (Change in °C) (% change)Scenario 2030s 2050s 2030s 2050s A2 0. 73 1.32 4.9 8.1 B1 0.78 1.62 6.3 8.4** Ensemble average of eight GCM results [CGCM 3.1, CCSM 3.0, CSIRO-Mk3.0, GFDL-CM 2.0 and 2.1, INM CM-3.0, MIROC 3.2 (medres) and UKMO-HadCM3]***Assessment done by CEGIS 9
    • Changes in Annual Temperature and Precipitation 10
    • Sea Level Rise• Sea level rise will increase about 27 cm by2050 and 80 cm by 2080 in coast of the Bay ofBengal 11
    • Objective 2: To investigate the spatialand temporal dimensions in land usechanges from paddy to shrimp farmingin the coastal areas of Bangladesh. 12
    • Major Cropping Pattern Crops Reason for selection Shrimp Shrimp Economic and Physical Aman Shrimp Environment and Economic(Monsoon rice) Aman Boro Environment and Food security (Winter rice) 13
    • Landuse (2011) Boro (winter rice) Aman (monsooon rice) Districts Area Production Area Production (Mt) (Mt)Khulna 50,025 212,552 82,835 213,979Bagerhat 47,385 187,960 70,580 148,370Satkhira 73,985 291,713 87,080 235,876Total 171,395 692,225 240,495 598,225 14
    • Changes in Boro (winter rice) cultivated Area from1992-2009• Due tohigher salinity, Boro production decreases• Boro area started to reduce from 1990• Now people are shifting from shrimp to rice production• Shrimp area reduced in 2009 and Boro area increased in 2009 15
    • Changes in Bagda (salt water shrimp) cultivated Area from1992-2009• Shrimp cultivation started increasing in 1990 & increased upto 2005• Salinity increased because of shrimp culture 16
    • Change in Boro and Bagda Area over time In 2005, Boro area reduces where Bagda area shows slightly increasing trend. Area under Boro cultivation in 2009 increase significantly from that of 2005 17
    • Trend in Boro and Bagda Area Changes Boro and Bagda area in Satkhira districts changes slowly than that of Khulna district Boro and Bagda area in Bagerhat districts changes firstly than the other two districts. 18
    • Reasons Behind ChangesFallow Boro For more economic return Changes in physical factorsShrimp Boro - Conversion of saline areas to fresh water 19
    • Suitability – Boro 20
    • Suitability – BagdaScenarios Highly Suitable (S1) Suitable (S2) Moderately Suitable (S3) Not Suitable (S4)Base 0 25 35 4032 cm SLR 1 37 42 2088 cm SLR 9 29 29 33 Suitability for 32 cm SLR Suitability for 88 cm SLRFigure 9.3.4 Bagda - Suitability under different SLR scanrios 21
    • Objective 3: To develop a framework for estimatingthe ecosystem health index using Multi CriteriaAnalysis (MCA). Externalities Land use Changes- Demographicpressure Livelihood-Climate change- Ecosystem Dynamics 22
    • Changing pattern in distribution of Sundri and Gewa from 1992 to 04-05 23
    • Changing pattern in distribution of Goran and Gewa from 1992 to 2004-05 24
    • Salinity condition in coastal area (2005 and 2050) 25
    • Tree Species Distribution in Sundarbans 26
    • Conceptual Framework for Sustainable Ecosystem Services of Sundarbans Mangrove Forest Drivers Pressures State of the Ecosystem1. Demographic Land use change–Population pressure Salinity intrusion Forest Habitat–Livelihood • Canopy area, species Low dry season water flow2. Market dominance Overexploitation of forest–Commodity price3. Climate change resources Diversity–Freshwater flow Sedimentation in river channels •Terrestrial and aquatic–Sea level rise Drainage congestion4. Policies Industrial pollution Environment–Forest policy, land use policy •Hydrological condition–Law enforcement Responses Impacts • Declaration of Sundarbans as Reserve Forest, Ecologically Critical Area (ECA) Productivity •Restriction on timber and fish harvesting •Timber, fish, honey •Afforestation in the deforested land in the forest as well as in newly developed islands •Establishing fish sanctuary Services •Livelihood support, •Established 3 wildlife sanctuary •Disease and pest control tourism •Alternative livelihoods development programme for forest 27 dependent people
    • Mangrove Ecosystem Health Index: Computational Framework Pressures StateLand use change •Enabling forest habitatSalinity intrusion •Required HydrologicalLow dry season water condition Ecosystem •Conservation offlow Health biological diversity IndexOverexploitation offorest resourcesSedimentation in river Impact (On goods and services)channelsDrainage congestion •Sustainable forest productionsIndustrial pollution •Enhancement of socio- economic benefits 28
    • Criteria and Indicators for MCASl No Criteria Sub Criteria Indicators Type 1. Enabling Forest canopy % of forest area B forest habitat under high density forest canopy Species Area of Sundri B dominance coverage (%) Area of goran C coverage (%) Forest No. of Deer Poaching C Management offense per year 2. Required Upstream Annual flow of Gorai B Hydrological freshwater river (million m3/ yr) condition flow 29
    • Criteria and Indicators for MCA (Cont…)Sl No. Criteria Sub Criteria Indicator Type 3. Conservation Species density No. of Sundari tree/ B of biological ha diversity No. of Gewa tree /ha B 4. Sustainable Timber resource Annual timber B forest (Sunduri, Bine, harvest (cubic meter/ productions Keora, Gewa) yr) Fuel wood resource Annual fuelwood B (Goran, Hetal, harvest (ton / yr) Kakra and others) Fish (Dry and White Annual fish harvest B fish) (ton / yr) Honey Annual honey B collection (ton /yr) Golpata Annual golpata B harvest (ton / yr) 30
    • Criteria and Indicators for MCA (Cont…)Sl No. Criteria Sub Criteria Indicator Type 5. Enhancement Forest % of forest C of socio- dependant dependant economic livelihood livelihood (0-5 km benefits Impact zone) Tourism No. of visitors per B year Shrimp % of area covered by C farming shrimp farms in three districts 31
    • Values of Indicators and Score of MCA Criteria Sub Criteria Indicators Value Score Value ScoreEnabling forest Forest canopy % of forest area under high 53 15 24 6 habitat density forest canopy Species dominance Area of Sundri coverage (%) 29% 8 36% 15 Area of goran coverage (%) 8% 14 17% 5 Forest Management No. of Deer Poaching offense per 22 16 26 13 yearRequired Hydro- Upstream freshwater Annual flow of Gorai river meteorological flow 45,658 15 29,314 9 (million m3/ yr) conditionConservation of Species density No. of Sundari tree per ha biological 106 5 205 14 diversity Sustainable Timber resource (Sunduri, Annual timber harvest (cubic 3,220 8 5502 12 forest Bine, Keora, Gewa) meter/ yr) productions Fuel wood resource Annual fuelwood harvest (ton/ (Goran, Hetal, Kakra and 32,194 16 14,192 5 yr) others) Fish (Dry and white fish) Annual fish harvest (ton/ yr) 3,298 7 2,217 4 Honey Annual honey collection (ton/yr) 87 4 103 5 Golpata Annual golpata harvest (ton/ yr) 21,409 8 25,547 10Enhancement of Forest dependant % of forest dependant livelihood 18 7.5 18 socio-economic livelihood (0-5 km Impact zone) benefits Tourism No. of visitors per year 71,202 8 119,256 16 Shrimp farming % of area covered by shrimp 8 18 18 10 farms in three districts
    • Score of MCA Scores Criteria Previous yrs Ref Yrs (1983-2004) (2005-12)Enabling forest habitat 13 10Required Hydrological condition 15 9Conservation of biologicaldiversity 15 14Sustainable forest productions 9 7Enhancement of socio-economicbenefits 5 15Overall Score 57 55 33
    • Conclusion Global knowledge on climate change was incorporated in national strategies, policies and plans like NAPA, SNC Landuse changes is driven by both economic and environmental factors Dependency on Sundarbans for livelihood of the buffer area population is still higher Alternate livelihood options is needed to reduce the dependency on Sundarbans Detail historical data is required to understand the dynamics of Sundarbans ecosystem 34
    • Thank you 35