Financial Storm, Economic Rainbow:
Find the Gold in the Recovery!
Dr. Bill Conerly
for
NSA
July 19, 2009
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 1

1. How the Business Cycle
Changes Our Clients’
Needs
2. Cyclical Timing Across
Our Markets and
Industries
3. The Picture of Recovery
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 2

Real GDP
12.0
11.5
11.0
n
o
s
$
0
2
r
t
l
i
10.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 3

Real GDP
12.0
Old
Challenges
11.5
11.0
n
o
s
$
0
2
r
t
l
i
10.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 4

Real GDP
12.0
Old
Challenges
11.5
Current
11.0 Challenges
n
o
s
$
0
2
r
t
l
i
10.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 5

Real GDP
Coming
12.0 Challenges
Old
Challenges
11.5
Current
11.0 Challenges
n
o
s
$
0
2
r
t
l
i
10.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 6

Real GDP
12.0
11.5
Current Challenges
Cash flow
11.0 Cutting costs while running
n
o
s
$
0
2
r
t
l
i
the business
Cutting costs and being
ready for recovery
10.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 7

Speaking Today
Apply Your Expertise
to
Today’s Challenges
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 8

Old Topic New Topic
“Leadership in High “Leadership of
Performance Stressed Out
Organizations” Employees”
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 9

Old Topic New Topic
“Leadership in High “Leadership of
Performance Stressed Out
Organizations” Employees”
“Sales Skills for the 21st “Recession Selling:
Century” the Value-Driven
Customer”
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 10

Old Topic New Topic
“Leadership in High “Leadership of
Performance Stressed Out
Organizations” Employees”
“Sales Skills for the 21st “Recession Selling:
Century” the Value-Driven
Customer”
“How I Overcame “Motivating People
Death to Rule the When the *%#! Has
World” Hit the Fan”
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 11

Keep It Real !
A Title Isn’t Enough
Be Able to Pitch to a Prospect
with 3 Substantive Points
Added to Your Presentation
Make the Presentation Truly Different
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 12

Coming Challenges
Financial stress
Real GDP HR: hiring, integrating
12.0 new employees
Consumer Attitudes
11.5
11.0
n
o
s
$
0
2
r
t
l
i
10.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 13

Speaking in the Recovery
Apply Your Expertise to
Tomorrow’s Challenges
• Lay Groundwork: the Expert on
the Future Challenges
• Offer a choice: Which
Challenges Are Your Members
Facing?
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 14

2. Cyclical Timing
Across Markets and
Industries
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 15

Real GDP
Lagging
11.8 Series
11.3
n
o
s
$
0
2
r
t
l
i
10.8
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 16

Timing of Speakers’ Markets
• Federal gov’t: independent of economy
• Consumer direct: leads overall economy
• Corporate: coincident w/ overall economy
• Association: lags overall economy
• Education: lags overall economy
• State & local gov’t: lags overall economy
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 17

Industry Sectors
(in order of recovery)
• Relatively immune:
– Federal Gov’t + Stimulus-related
– Consumer staples & services
• Consumer discretionary
• Exports
• Business equipment
• Non-residential construction
• State & local government (except stimulus-related)
• Residential construction
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 18

The biggest swings
in market share
occur at market
turning points.
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 19

3. The Picture of Recovery
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 20

Housing Starts
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
m
u
n
o
s
t
f
l
i
0.4
0.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 21

Vacancy Rates
11
10
Rental
9
8
7
6
5
4
Owned
u
o
n
p
s
c
e
r
f
t
i
3
2
1
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 22

Retail Sales
400
375
350
325
n
o
b
s
$
l
i
300
275
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 23

Income, Spending $ Chg.
180 Disposable income
Consumer spending
120
60
0
-60
m
o
g
n
h
e
a
c
$
t
,
-120
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 24

Money Supply
M-2
8500
8000
7500
7000
n
o
b
s
$
l
i
6500
6000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 25

Interest Rates
7
6
5
4
3
n
p
c
e
r
t
2
10-year Treasury
1 Fed Funds
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 26

Resources
General Economics
Businomics book: www.Businomics.com
Businomics blog: http://businomics.typepad.com
Businomics newsletter: www.ConerlycConsulting.com/charts.php
Survey of Professional Forecasters: http://tinyurl.com/c2jqg9
Speaking Business
Future Watch 2009 by MPI: http://tinyurl.com/bxvcl9
NSA Membership Survey, 2007: http://tinyurl.com/atmttt
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 27

Questions?
Bill @ ConerlyConsulting.com
one “n”
Bill Conerly www.ConerlyConsulting.com 28