Workforce Planning
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Workforce Planning

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An overview of workforce planning, its elements and sample applications.

An overview of workforce planning, its elements and sample applications.

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  • 1. Workforce Planning
    Presented by Senga Consulting Inc.
  • 2. Participants will learn the…
    • Categories of HR forecasting.
    • 3. Rationale for attention to specialist, technical and executive personnel in forecasting.
    • 4. Impact of environmental and organizational variables on HR demand and supply.
    • 5. Various demand forecasting techniques.
    • 6. Methods of determining external and internal HR supply.
    • 7. Relationship between forecasting and succession planning.
    2
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  • 8. Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved
    Workforce Planning
    3
  • 9. Workforce Planning
    • Business process for ensuring an organization has access to talent to ensure future success.
    • 10. Access to talent includes considering all access sources.
    • 11. Talent: The skills, knowledge, predisposition and ability to undertake required activities including decision making.
    4
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  • 12. Getting Started
    • Obtain support from senior leaders.
    • 13. Communicate benefits and results to managers.
    • 14. Establish a workforce planning team of knowledgeable employees from different functional areas and levels.
    • 15. Develop and implement a plan.
    • 16. Solicit continuous feedback for ongoing improvements.
    5
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  • 17. Workforce Planning Steps
    Step 1
    Supply Analysis
    • Staffing levels
    • 18. Workforce skills
    • 19. Workforce demographics
    • 20. Employment trends
    Step 2
    Demand Analysis
    • Workforce skills needed
    • 21. Staffing patterns
    • 22. Anticipated workload changes
    Step 3
    Gap Analysis
    • Compare supply analysis with demand analysis
    • 23. Determine future gaps (shortages) and surpluses (excesses)
    • 24. Identify future changes in workforce demographics
    • 25. Identify areas in which management action will be needed
    Step 4
    Strategy Development
    • Plan
    • 26. Recruiting
    • 27. Succession
    • 28. Employee development and retraining
    • 29. Organizational change
    6
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  • 30. Workforce Planning Model
    7
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  • 31. Environmental Scanning
    Cost and availability of capital
    Government Regulations
    Labour availability
    Competition
    Technology
    Supplier power
    Globalization
    Customer expectations
    8
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  • 32. Techniques
    • Scanning – identify early signals of changes and trends.
    • 33. Monitoring – follow key indicators that affect the organization.
    • 34. Forecasting – after monitoring, project the impact on the organization.
    • 35. Assessing – describe the impact of the monitored trend on the organization, make a judgment of the probability of outcomes.
    9
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  • 36. Forecasting Methods
    • Trend Analysis – a quantitative approach to forecast future personnel needs based on extrapolating information from historical changes.
    • 37. Delphi Technique –forecasts and judgments of a group of experts are solicited and summarized to determine the future of employment.
    • 38. Impact Analysis –trends are analyzed by a panel of experts who then predict the probability of future events.
    • 39. Scenario Planning –creating future scenarios that differ radically from those created by extrapolation of present trends
    10
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  • 40. Environmental Factors
    • Economic climate –the economy affects HR management
    • 41. Globalization – affects sovereignty, prosperity, jobs, wages, and social legislation
    • 42. Political and legislative factors – influence organizations with changes to laws and regulations
    • 43. Technological factors –new issues include online HR functions, identity theft, e-learning, answering email on vacations
    • 44. Demographic factors –include age, gender, family status, education, economic status, labour market
    • 45. Social and cultural factors
    11
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  • 46. Exercise
    • What key environmental factors affect your organization’s ability to achieve its goals?
    • 47. What are the HR implications?
    12
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  • 48. Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved
    The HR Forecasting Process
    13
  • 49. Learning Topics
    • Categories of HR forecasting activity and their relationship to the HR planning process
    • 50. Rationale for attention to specialist, technical, and executive personnel groups in the HR forecasting process
    • 51. Impact of environmental and organizational variables on the accuracy and time period of estimates derived from future estimates of HR demand and supply
    • 52. Various stages in the process of determining net HR requirements
    14
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  • 53. Forecasting Activity Categories
    15
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  • 54. Human Resources Supply and Demand
    16
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  • 55. Key Personnel Analyses
    17
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  • 56. Designated Group
    Receive the most discrimination within organizations
    18
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  • 57. 5 Stages of the Forecasting Process
    19
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  • 58. Organizational Factors
    • Corporate mission, strategic goals
    • 59. Operational goals, production budgets
    • 60. HR policies
    • 61. Organizational structure, restructuring
    • 62. Worker KSAs, competencies, expectations
    • 63. HRMS level of development
    • 64. Organizational culture, climate, job satisfaction, communications
    • 65. Job analysis
    20
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  • 66. Environmental Factors
    • Economic situation
    • 67. Labour markets and unions
    • 68. Government laws and regulations
    • 69. Industry and product life cycles
    • 70. Technological changes
    • 71. Competitor labour usage
    • 72. Global market for skilled labour
    • 73. Demographic changes
    21
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  • 74. Time Horizons
    Medium-run
    – 2 - 5 years
    Long-run
    – 5 or more years
    Current
    – up to 1 year
    Short-run
    – 1 - 2 years
    22
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  • 75. Ascertain HR Supply
    23
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  • 76. Determine NET HR Requirements
    External supply requirements =
    replacement + change supply components
    Change supply =
    hiring to increase (or decrease) the overall staffing level
    Replacement supply =
    hiring to replace all normal losses
    External supply =
    current workforce # x (replacement % per year + change % per year)
    24
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  • 77. Example
    External supply = current workforce x (replacement % per yr + change % per yr)
    Surplus =
    1000 x (4 % per year (0.04) + 2 % per year (0.02)
    40 + 20 = 60
    Need for 60 employees
    Deficit =
    1000 x (4% per year (0.04) + -7% per year (-0.03)
    40 + -70 = -30
    Need to reduce by 30 employees
    25
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  • 78. Your Turn
    External supply = current workforce x (replacement % per yr + change % per yr)
    Surplus =
    10,000 x (3.5 % per year (0.035) + 3 % per year (0.03)
    + =
    Need to hire employees
    Deficit =
    10,000 x (6% per year (0.06) + -8% per year (-0.08)
    + =
    Need to reduce by employees
    26
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  • 79. HR Surplus/Deficit
    • Internal workforce supply exceeds the organization’s requirement or demand for personnel
    • 80. Demand exceeds the current resources available in the organization's workforce
    27
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  • 81. Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved
    HR Demand
    28
  • 82. Learning Topics
    • Demand forecasting
    • 83. Linkages between labour demand forecasting and the supply
    • 84. Various demand forecasting techniques
    29
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  • 85. HR Demand
    Projected human resources requirement
    30
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  • 86. Trend Analysis
    • Historical relationship between a business index (e.g., sales, contracts, units sold etc.) and the number of employees required to achieve that index (labour demand)
    31
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  • 87. Effective Trend Analysis
    Five steps to conducting an effective index/trend analysis:
    Select the appropriate business index
    Track the index over time
    Track the total number of employees over time
    Calculate the average ratio of the business index to the total number of employees
    E.g. employee requirement ratio - the relationship between the business index and the demand for labour
    Calculate the Forecasted Demand for Labour
    32
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  • 88. Employee Requirement Ratio
    Current Year
    33
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  • 89. Steps for Delphi Technique
    Sequential surveys with feedback on opinions in previous rounds
    34
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  • 90. Steps for the Nominal Group Technique
    Long-run forecasting technique utilizing expert assessments
    35
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  • 91. HR Budgets
    • Quantitative, operational or short-run demand estimates that contain the number and types of personnel required by the organization as a whole and for each subunit, division, or department
    36
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  • 92. HR Budgets: Staffing Table
    37
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  • 93. Scenario Forecasts
    Projections of future demand for human resources based on differing assumptions about future events.
    Optimistic
    Sales
    Normal
    Pessimistic
    Now
    T + 2 Years
    T + 1 Year
    T + 3 Years
    Time
    38
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  • 94. Regression Analysis
    • Presupposes a linear relationship between independent (casual) variables and dependent (target) variable, e.g., HR demand
    • 95. Linearity is the relationship between the independent and dependent variables
    39
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  • 96. Regression Analysis
    Y = dependent variable (HR demand)
    A = constant (Y intercept)
    B = slope of linear relationship between X and Y
    X = independent variable (e.g. level of sales)
    B
    Y – Dependent Variable
    A
    X – Independent Variable
    40
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  • 97. Regression Prediction
    Y = A + BX
    Y = dependent variable (HR demand)
    A = constant (Y intercept)
    B = slope of linear relationship between X and Y
    X = independent variable (e.g. level of sales)
    Where
    41
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  • 98. ExerciseData
    X
    Sales
    ($ Millions)
    2.0
    3.5
    4.5
    6.0
    7.0
    Y
    # of Marketing Personnel
    20
    32
    42
    55
    66
    5 Sets of observations
    42
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  • 99. Exercise Step 1Calculate XY, X2, average X and average Y
    X
    Sales
    ($ Millions)
    2.0
    2.5
    3.5
    5.0
    6.5
    19.5
    Y
    # of
    Employees
    25
    28
    30
    38
    54
    175
    XY
    50
    70
    105
    190
    351
    766
    X2
    4.00
    6.25
    12.25
    25.00
    42.25
    89.75
    Average X = 19.5/5 = 3.9 Average Y = 175/5 = 35
    N = 5
    43
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  • 100. Exercise Step 2Calculate the value of B (slope of the linear relationship between X and Y)
    XY
    50
    70
    105
    190
    351
    766
    X2
    4.00
    6.25
    12.25
    25.00
    42.25
    89.75
    Average X = 3.9
    N = 5
    Average Y = 35
    44
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  • 101. Exercise Step 3Calculate A (constant or intercept)
    Average X = 3.9
    Average Y = 35
    B = 6.09
    IF
    Y = A + BX
    Then
    AND
    A = 35 – (6.09)(3.9)
    A = 11.23
    45
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  • 102. Exercise Step 4Determine the regression prediction equation
    Y = A + BX
    Whew! So what?
    Independent causal variable X
    (e.g., sales) AND
    Dependent variable Y
    (e.g., predicted # of personnel)
    Even if sales are zero the value for A is 11.23 (round to 11.0) or 11 persons.
    For every increase unit ($1 Million) sales (X) there is a predicted increase of 6.09 staff (Y) associated with that change.
    A = 11.23
    B = 6.09
    X = Dependent Variable
    Y = 11.23 + (6.09)(X)
    46
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  • 103. Exercise Step 5Calculate predicted HR demand (Y) by inserting values for X
    Predict the HR demand for personnel at $8 million and $10 million.
    Y = A + BX
    Y = A + BX
    Y = A + BX
    $10 million
    $8 million
    A = 11.23
    A = 11.23
    A = 11.23
    B = 6.09
    B = 6.09
    B = 6.09
    X = Sales ($M)
    X = 8
    X = 10
    Y= 11.23 + (6.09)(X)
    Y = 11.23 + (6.09)(8)
    Y = 59.99
    60 Staff required
    Y = 11.23 + (6.09)(10)
    Y = 72.18
    72/73 Staff required
    47
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  • 104. Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved
    Ascertaining HR Supply
    48
  • 105. Learning Topics
    • Relationship between demand / supply forecasting
    • 106. Relationship between forecasting and replacement management
    • 107. Methods of determining external and internal supply of employees such as:
    • 108. Skills and management inventories,
    • 109. Replacement analysis,
    • 110. Markov models,
    • 111. Linear programming,
    • 112. Movement analysis,
    • 113. Vacancy/renewal
    49
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  • 114. Human Resources Supply
    • Source of workers to meet demand acquired internally or externally.
    50
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  • 115. Skills Inventory
    • Record held on employee except management or professionals
    Personal information
    Education, training and skill competencies, licensing etc.
    Work history
    Performance appraisals
    Career information
    Hobbies, interests, volunteerism, community involvement
    51
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  • 116. Management Inventory
    • Record for managerial, professional, or technical personnel that includes all elements in the skills inventory with the addition of information on specialized duties, responsibilities, and accountabilities.
    History of management or professional jobs held
    A record of management or professional training courses
    Key accountabilities for the current job
    Assessment centre and appraisal data
    Professional and industry association memberships
    52
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  • 117. Replacement Management
    • Process of ensuring that pools of skilled employees are trained and available to meet the strategic objectives of the organization
    • 118. Process of finding employee for key managerial positions
    Long-term succession
    Training and work experience to enable individuals to assume higher-level job appointments in the future
    Short-term emergency replacement
    Individuals who have quit, been terminated due to performance problems, have died, and so on
    53
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  • 119. Replacement Analysis
    Improve effectively filling vacancies
    Performance
    1Outstanding
    2Above average
    3Average/good
    4Below Average
    5 Unacceptable
    Readiness
    AReady now
    BReady in 1 year
    CReady in 2 years
    DNot suitable for this job
    54
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  • 120. Ripple Effects
    • Caused when one promotion or transfer in the organization causes several other movements as a series of people are promoted to fill the openings
    55
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  • 121. Markov Model
    • Produces a series of matrices that detail the various patterns of movement to and from the various jobs in the organization
    • 122. Determines the likelihood that an individual will display movement behaviours
    56
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  • 123. Sample Markov Matrix*
    *Adapted from Strategic Human Resources Planning, Belcourt and McBey, Nelson, 2010.
    57
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  • 124. Markov Analysis Conclusions
    • Number of people who move between job levels annually
    • 125. Number of external hires needed
    • 126. Movement patterns and expected duration in specified jobs associated with patterns of career progression
    • 127. Number and percentage of starters at a particular job who target a future job within a specified time
    58
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  • 128. Linear Programming
    • Mathematical procedure used for project analysis in engineering and business applications
    • 129. Determine the optimal supply mix to minimize costs or other constraints.
    59
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  • 130. Movement Patterns
    Remain in current job
    Promotion to higher job classification
    Lateral move
    Exit from a job (e.g., termination, layoff, voluntary exit)
    Demotion
    60
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  • 131. Movement Analysis
    • Analyze people supply and the ripple effect that promotions or job losses have on the movements of others in the organization
    61
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  • 132. Exercise*
    • 5% increase for levels 6-9
    • 133. 1 additional level 4
    • 134. 6 additional level 5
    • 135. Historical annual loss rates
    Retirements
    • 2 positions level 5
    • 136. 15% levels 6-9
    Turnover
    *Adapted from Strategic Human Resources Planning, Belcourt and McBey, Nelson, 2010.
    62
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  • 147. Exercise
    Start at the top with the most senior positions since most movement in organizations is up due to promotions and replacements.
    63
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  • 148. Exercise
    Movement analysis has identified this year’s need to fill 68 vacancies.
    167 moves will be required because of promotion from within.
    64
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  • 149. Vacancy Model
    • Analyzes people flow throughout the organization at each functional or compensation level
    Use the following information to calculate next year’s supply forecast.
    HR loss during the year
    Level 88 (president = 100%
    Level 87 (vice presidents) = 15%
    Level 86 (directors) = 17%
    Level 85 (managers) = 20%
    Level 84 (senior analysts) = 25%
    Level 83 (analysts) = 50%
    Replacement Policy (% external / % internal)
    % external % internal
    Level 88 0 100
    Level 87 10 90
    Level 86 20 80
    Level 85 30 70
    Level 84 55 45
    Level 83 100 0
    65
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  • 150. Exercise*
    Start at the top and work your way down
    *Adapted from Strategic Human Resources Planning, Belcourt and McBey, Nelson, 2010.
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  • 151. Supply and Retention Programs
    • Monitor and control absenteeism and turnover
    • 152. Retention programs are vital to keeping experienced, high-performers
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  • 153. Costs of Replacing Employees
    Hard Costs
    • Advertisements
    • 154. Headhunter, recruiting fees
    • 155. Interview training
    • 156. Travel costs
    • 157. Admin expenses
    • 158. Costs of lost production
    • 159. Bonuses
    • 160. Increased salaries
    • 161. Cost to replace a fully proficient employee - 70-200% annual salary
    Soft Costs
    • Lost business and customer contacts
    • 162. Decreased productivity due to training and learning curve gaps
    • 163. Orientation and training time
    • 164. Decline in team morale and productivity
    • 165. Increased turnover due to the “follow-me” effect
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  • 166. Retention Programs
    • Offering effective communication programs
    • 167. Facilitating an enjoyable and collegial work atmosphere
    • 168. Designing meaningful jobs
    • 169. Formulating and administering performance and compensation systems that reward better performers
    • 170. Offering more flexible and attractive work arrangements) -- flextime, telecommuting, cafeteria-style benefits plans
    • 171. Mentoring and developing intellectual capital
    69
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  • 172. Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved
    Succession Management
    70
  • 173. Learning Topics
    • Evolution of succession management
    • 174. Steps in the succession management process
    • 175. Compare job and competency approaches
    • 176. Identifying high potential talent
    • 177. Management development methods
    • 178. Measuring success of management succession
    • 179. Limitation of succession management
    71
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  • 180. Importance of Succession Management
    • Process of ensuring that a pool of skilled employees ready to achieve the strategic objectives of the organization
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  • 181. Evolution of Succession Management
    • Process of finding replacement employees for key managerial positions
    • 182. Replacement planning has evolved into succession management by:
    • 183. Broadening the focus
    • 184. Expanding the time horizon
    • 185. Creating a talent pool
    • 186. Improving the evaluation system
    73
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  • 187. Reasons for Succession Management
    Provide opportunities for high-potentials
    Identify replacement needs
    Increase the talent pool of promotable employees
    Contribute to implementing strategic business plans
    Help individuals realize their career plans
    Tap the potential for intellectual capital
    Encourage the advancement of diverse groups
    Cope with the effects of voluntary separation programs
    Decide which workers can be terminated
    Cope with the effects of downsizing
    Reduce headcount to essential strategically important jobs only
    74
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  • 188. Succession Management Process
    75
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  • 189. Step 1Align Succession Plans with Strategy
    • Organizations must start with the business plan
    • 190. Using environmental scanning, managers try to predict where the organization will be in three to five to ten years
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  • 191. Step 2Identify the Skills and Competencies
    Job-Based Approach
    Competency-Based Approach
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  • 192. Job and Competency Approaches
    Job Based Approach –
    • Focus on duties, skills, job experience, and responsibilities required to perform the job
    • 193. Not adequate since jobs change rapidly
    Competency-Based Approach
    • Focus on measurable attributes
    • 194. Differentiate successful employees from non successful
    • 195. Hard and soft skills
    • 196. Produce more flexible individuals
    78
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  • 197. Types of Competencies
    Core competencies
    Role or specific competencies
    Unique or distinctive competencies
    79
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  • 198. Step 3Identify High-Potential Employees
    Several approaches to identify managerial talent, including:
    • Temporary replacements
    • 199. Replacement charts
    • 200. Strategic replacement
    • 201. Talent management culture
    80
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  • 202. Management Development Methods
    81
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  • 207. Leadership Development Activities*
    * From Strategic Human Resource Planning, Belcourt and McBey, Nelson, 2010.
    82
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  • 208. Management Development Methods
    83
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  • 213. Step 5Monitor Succession Management
    • Corporations with strong succession management programs are higher performers in revenue growth, profitability and market share
    • 214. HR metrics can be used to help monitor succession management
    84
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  • 215. Succession Management Metrics
    • Increase engagement scores
    • 216. Increase positive perceptions of development opportunities
    • 217. High potentials’ perceptions of the succession management process
    • 218. Higher participation in developmental activities
    • 219. Greater number involved in the mentoring process
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  • 220. HR Metrics – Lag Measures
    • Increased ave # of candidates
    • 221. Reduced ave # of positions with no identified successors
    • 222. Increased % of managers with replacement plans
    • 223. Increased % of key positions filled according to plans
    • 224. Increased ratio of internal to external hires
    • 225. Increased retention rates of key talent
    • 226. Increased % of positive job evaluations
    • 227. Increased # of manager as talent developers
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  • 228. Contact Information
    Wayne Rawcliffe
    Senga Consulting Inc.
    604.909.3840
    205, 1275 West 6th Avenue
    Vancouver, BC V6H 1A6
    wayne@senga.ca
    www.senga.ca
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