The Waterside Convention 2011 - Amundi Volatiliteit PresentatiePresentation Transcript
Volatility as antithesis: risk or performance ? ? Amsterdam, 27 January 2011 Alex Drabowicz, CAIA Volatility Product SpecialistThis material is solely for the attention of "professional” investors (seemore details and definitions at the back).
About Amundi and the volatility expertise Amundi Volatility team Investment team based in Paris run by Gilbert Keskin/Eric Hermitte since 2000 Track record directional funds since 2005 Significant AuM of € 4.6 billion Innovation Awards France 2005, EuroHedge 2008/2009/2010 Amundi Funds Volatility World Equities UCITS III, daily liquidity, Actively Managed Equity Volatility Fund Bloomberg ticker CAMVWIA LX Cost efficient replication of 1 year implied volatility, not VIX Using listed options and futures, with clearinghouse as counterparty Performances 2008 +25.84%, 2009 +8.53%, 2010 +5.10% Assets: USD 1.3 billionSource: Amundi, assets as of 31/12/2010 on directional volatility funds: Amundi Volatilité Actions Euro (French FCP), Amsterdam Volatility 2011 - page 2Amundi Funds Volatility Euro Equities and Amundi Funds Volatility World Equities (Lux SICAV).
Table of Contents 1. Passive approach: for risk 2. Active approach: for performance 3. Outlook Amsterdam Volatility 2011 - page 3
Volatility: An asset class in its own rightVolatility tends to rise when equity markets fall, providing diversification and decorrelation Equities vs. equities volatility: – Long term negative correlation: -0.70 = ideal for risk management 80 1600 1500 70 1400 60 S&P500 1300 50 1200 S&P500 VIX 40 1100 1000 30 VIX Index 900 20 800 10 700 0 600 Jan-00 Feb-01 Mar-02 Apr-03 May-04 Jun-05 Jul-06 Aug-07 Sep-08 Oct-09 Nov-10Sources: Amundi, Bloomberg Amsterdam Volatility 2011 - page 4
Volatility products: VIX Futures 1/3Futures on VIX: ideal for hedging VIX spot index is a theoretical calculation and is NOT a tradable index VIX indices have historically traded in “contango” markets: significant rolling costs Popular instrument to “hedge” an equity portfolioJan 11, 2011: Contango is magnifiedSource: Bloomberg Amsterdam Volatility 2011 - page 5
Volatility products: VIX ETN 2/3 Provides negative correlation but at a high cost VIX Futures vs. VIX Spot since 2004 show the effect of contango VIX ETN suffer also from the same effect as it is based on the VIX futures VIX Futures: using first maturity, rolled 3 days prior to expiry, adjusted for the price difference 500 60 600 450 50 500 400 VIX Spot VIX Spot 350 +2% VXX ETN Price Level 40 400 -58% VIX Spot Level %Base 100 March 2004 300 250 VIX Futures 30 300 200 -76% 20 200 150 100 VXX ETN 50 10 -91% 100 - 0 0 Mar-04 Nov-04 Jul-05 Mar-06 Nov-06 Jul-07 Mar-08 Nov-08 Jul-09 Mar-10 Nov-10 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Source: Bloomberg Amsterdam Volatility 2011 - page 6 As of 31/12/2010
Volatility products: VIX futures ETF 3/3Passive volatility exposure is a losing game Costly portfolio tool & expected performance to be negative over the long termSource: www.source.info Amsterdam Volatility 2011 - page 7
Volatility products: Large inflows in passive productsThe AUM in volatility ETNs exceeds $ 2 billion While the demand in 2009 was directed to the VXX (short-term VIX futures); VXZ (medium-term VIX futures) has become more popular 3.5 3.0 2.5 USD billions 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 - Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 VXX AUM VXZ AUMSource: Amundi, Bloomberg Amsterdam Volatility 2011 - page 8
Table of Contents 1. Passive approach 2. Active approach 3. Outlook Amsterdam Volatility 2011 - page 9
Volatility: its mean reverting behaviorUsing market turbulence as a source of added value Volatility behaves like an elastic band Over the long term, volatility has a strong mean reverting behaviour 50% 1yr implied volatility SP500 45% 1yr implied volatility DJ Euro Excessive Levels: 40% 1yr implied volatility Nikkei225 « expensive » 35% 30% 25% Average regime 20% Low Levels 15% “ Cheap “ 10% Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 ► By buying and selling volatility, the management team transforms uncertainty about the markets into returnsSources: Amundi, Deutsche Bank Amsterdam Volatility 2011 - page 10Past market behaviours are not a guarantee for future behaviours.
Amundi Funds Volatility World Equities Performance Inception date: 15 November 2007 Assets under Management: USD 1.3 billion (as of 31/12/2010) 1450 Amundi Funds Volatility World Equities I Share Net Performance 15/11/07 – 31/12/10 1350 1250 1150 1050 950 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Amundi Funds Volatility World Equities I (C) Net – Monthly Performance Bloomberg ticker: CAMVWIA LX Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year 2010 (0.64)% (0.32)% (0.77)% 1.27% 4.69% 0.48% 0.67% 0.77% (0.07)% (0.85%) 0.55% (0.69%) 5.10% 2009 0.90% 1.30% (1.63)% 4.74% 3.12% 0.55% 0.31% 0.51% (0.54)% 0.19% 0.02% (1.09)% 8.53% 2008 5.73% 1.58% 1.71% (4.44)% 1.84% 1.17% (0.63)% 0.96% 5.49% (3.51)% 4.17% 9.98% 25.84% 2007 0.45% (0.91)% (0.47)%Sources: Amundi. Net performance as of 31/12/10. Institutional Accumulation shares. Amsterdam Volatility 2011 - page 11Past performance does not prejudge future results, nor is it a guarantee of future returns
How the fund performed in different environmentsAmundi Funds Volatility World Equities* has performed well against theMSCI World** in several market configurations: Market Fund Volatility Performance Start End Bull/Bear Exposure Fund Market 1 15-Nov-07 31-Dec-07 Bull Long Vol -0.5% +0.2% 2 2-Jan-08 7-Oct-08 Bear Long Vol +15.6% -34.1% 3 8-Oct-08 9-Mar-09 Bear Short Vol +9.1% -31.4% 4 10-Mar-09 27-Jul-09 Bull Short Vol +6.2% +42.3% 5 28-Jul-09 10-Apr-10 Bull Long Vol -3.8% +20.8% 6 12-Apr-10 31-Dec-10 Bull Long Short Vol +7.4% +4.7% 14-Nov-06 31-Dec-10 Bull & Bear Long & Short +42.9% -19.2% VolSource: Amundi, Bloomberg. Net Performance * Amundi Funds Volatility World Equities (Lux SICAV): Amsterdam Volatility 2011 - page 12 Bloomberg ticker CAMVIA LX / MSCI World: Bloomberg ticker: MXWOPerformance based on daily date. Correlation based on weekly data.Past performance does not prejudge future results, nor is it a guarantee of future returns** The MSCI World is not the reference indicator of the Sub-fund and it is used only for information purposes
Diversification benefits across all asset classesAmundi Funds Volatility World Equities* shows low correlation: Amundi Amundi Broad Asset FD-VOLATIL HFRX classes FD-VOLATIL Classes WORLD WORLD S&P 500 Index 0.030 HFRX Global -0.162 MSCI WORLD 0.078 HFRX Macro -0.080 S&P GSCI Tot Return 0.062 HFRX Systematic -0.260 HFRX Global Hedge -0.162 HFRX Equity Market Neutral -0.263 JPM Global Bonds 0.197 HFRX Equity Hedge -0.133Source: Amundi, Bloomberg. Net Performance * Amundi Funds Volatility World Equities (Lux SICAV): Amsterdam Volatility 2011 - page 13Bloomberg ticker CAMVIA LX, data from 13/11/2007 to 12/31/2010Correlation based on weekly data. Past performance does not prejudge future results, nor is it a guarantee of future returns
Table of Contents 1. Passive approach 2. Active approach 3. Outlook Amsterdam Volatility 2011 - page 14
Volatility environment 1/2 Equity volatility is currently one of the least stressed risk measures across asset classesSource: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Data as of 2 Dec 10. Amsterdam Volatility 2011 - page 15
Volatility environment 2/2 European Financial CDS and Equity Implied Volatility is divergingSource: Morgan Stanley, Quantitative and Derivatives Strategies Dec2010. Amsterdam Volatility 2011 - page 16
Outlook for 2011: 3 scenarios can be drawnCentral scenario 1: volatility stays moderately volatile (2007-2008) 1yr implied volatility trades between 20/25%, with possible spikes above 25% triggered by tension on long term rates, FX imbalances, inflation surprises, sovereign risks – Directional funds: can perform in line with objectiveAlternative scenario 2: volatility below 20% (2004 or H2 2006) 1yr implied volatility falls below 20% as a virtuous circle unfolds: current debt crisis is solved by higher growth thanks to government and central banks measures, unemployment goes down, consumption resumes. – Directional funds: suffer as a result of long volatility exposureAlternative scenario 3: a new crisis emerges 1yr implied volatility spikes around 30%: sovereign default or downgrade (outside PIIGS), FX realignments, asset bubble, emerging market over-heating, Eurozone split, protectionism – Directional funds: performance can exceed its objective Amsterdam Volatility 2011 - page 17
Table of Contents Appendix: track records Amsterdam Volatility 2011 - page 18
Monthly track-recordsFRENCH FCPLUX SICAV Bloomberg ticker: CAVEQAI LXLUX SICAV Bloomberg ticker: CAMVWIA LX Sources: Amundi Amsterdam Volatility 2011 - page 19 Past performance does not prejudge future results, nor is it a guarantee of future returns
DisclaimerThis document contains information about Amundi Funds Volatility Euro Equities, Amundi Funds Volatility World Equities and Amundi Funds DynarbitrageVolatility (the “Sub-Fund”), three sub-funds of Amundi Funds (the“Sicav”), an undertaking for collective investment in transferable securities existing under Part Iof the Luxembourg law of 20 December 2002, organised as a société d’investissement à capital variable and registered with the Luxembourg Trade andCompanies Register under number B68.806. The SICAV has its registered office at 5, allée Scheffer, l-2520 Luxembourg.Amundi Funds has been authorised for public sale by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier in Luxembourg.Not all sub-funds of the SICAV (the "Sub-Funds") will necessarily be registered or authorized for sale in all jurisdictions or be available to all investors.Subscriptions in the Sub-Funds will only be accepted on the basis of the SICAV’s latest complete and simplified prospectuses, its latest annual and semi-annualreports and its articles of incorporation that may be obtained, free of charge, at the registered office of the SICAV or respectively at that of the representativeagent duly authorized and agreed by the relevant authority of each relevant concerned jurisdiction.Consideration should be given to whether the risks attached to an investment in the Sub-Funds are suitable for prospective investors who should ensure thatthey fully understand the contents of this document. A professional advisor should be consulted to determine whether an investment in the Sub-Funds is suitable.The value of, and any income from, an investment in the Sub-Funds can decrease as well as increase. The Sub-Funds have no guaranteed performance.Further, past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator for current or future performance and returns. The performance data do not take account ofthe commissions and costs incurred on the issue and redemption of units.This document does not constitute an offer to buy nor a solicitation to sell in any country where it might be considered as unlawful, nor does it constitute publicadvertising or investment advice. This material is solely for the attention of institutional, professional, qualified or sophisticated investors and distributors. It is not to be distributed to the general public, private customers or retail investors in any jurisdiction whatsoever nor to “US Persons”. Moreover, any such investor should be, in the European Union, a “Professional” investor as defined in Directive 2004/39/EC dated 21 April 2004 on markets in financial instruments (“MIFID”) or as the case may be in each local regulations and, as far as the offering in Switzerland is concerned, a “Qualified Investor” within the meaning of the provisions of the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Ordinance of 23 June 2006 (CISA), the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Ordinance of 22 November 2006 (CISO) and the FINMA’s Circular 08/8 on Public Offering within the meaning of the legislation on Collective Investment Schemes of 20 November 2008. In no event may this material be distributed in the European Union to non “Professional” investors as defined in the MIFID or in each local regulation, or in Switzerland to investors who do not comply with the definition of “qualified investors” as defined in the applicable legislation and regulation. Amundi, French joint stock company (“Société Anonyme”) with a registered capital of € 578 002 350 and approved by the French Securities Regulator (Autorité des Marchés Financiers-AMF) under number GP 04000036 as a portfolio management company 90 boulevard Pasteur -75015 Paris- France – 437 574 452 RCS Paris. www.amundi.com www.amundi-funds.com Amsterdam Volatility 2011 - page 20
DisclaimerThis material is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation, a solicitation, an offer, an advice or an invitation to purchaseor sell any fund, SICAV, sub-fund, (“the Funds”) described herein and should in no case be interpreted as such.This material, which is not a contract, is based on sources that Amundi considers to be reliable. Data, opinions and estimates may be changed without notice.Amundi accepts no liability whatsoever, whether direct or indirect, that may arise from the use of information contained in this material. Amundi can in no way beheld responsible for any decision or investment made on the basis of information contained in this material.The information contained in this document is disclosed to you on a confidential basis and shall not be copied, reproduced, modified, translated or distributedwithout the prior written approval of Amundi, to any third person or entity in any country or jurisdiction which would subject Amundi or any of “the Funds”, to anyregistration requirements within these jurisdictions or where it might be considered as unlawful. Accordingly, this material is for distribution solely in jurisdictionswhere permitted and to persons who may receive it without breaching applicable legal or regulatory requirements.Not all funds, or sub-funds will be necessarily be registered or authorized in all jurisdictions or be available to all investors.Investment involves risk. Past performances and simulations based on these, do not guarantee future results, nor are they reliable indicators of futuresperformances.The value of an investment in the Funds, in any security or financial product may fluctuate according to market conditions and cause the value of an investmentto go up or down. As a result, you may lose, as the case may be, the amount originally invested.All investors should seek the advice of their legal and/or tax counsel or their financial advisor prior to any investment decision in order to determine its suitability.It is your responsibility to read the legal documents in force in particular the current French prospectus for each fund, as approved by the AMF, and eachinvestment should be made on the basis of such prospectus, a copy of which can be obtained upon request free of charge at the registered office of themanagement company. Amundi, French joint stock company (“Société Anonyme”) with a registered capital of € 578 002 350 and approved by the French Securities Regulator (Autorité des Marchés Financiers-AMF) under number GP 04000036 as a portfolio management company 90 boulevard Pasteur -75015 Paris- France – 437 574 452 RCS Paris. www.amundi.com Amsterdam Volatility 2011 - page 21