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Next generation Waterside Convention 10-2012 Amundi
1. Asymmetrical Equities:
Improving the efficiency of your equity exposure
October 2012
Stephane Mauppin-Higashino, CFA
Head of Equity Investment Specialists
This material is solely for the attention of "professional” investors (see
more details and definitions at the back).
2. Equity context : A changed regime
S&P 500
1950-1999 Average Return = 9.4 % Average Volatility = 13.7%
2000-2012 Average Return = 1.9 % Average Volatility = 19.5%
50%
40% Volatility
40%
33% Annual return 35%
31% 32%
31% 30%
29%
30%
25%
24%
20% 21% 20%
18% 19%
20% 16% 16%
14% 14%
13%
11% 11% 12%13%12% 12% 12%
11%
12%
9% 10% 10% 9%
11% 8% 8%
10% 6% 7%
7%
5% 4% 4%
2% 1% 2%
0%
0%
déc.-51 déc.-56
-1% déc.-61 déc.-66 déc.-71 déc.-76 déc.-81 déc.-86 déc.-91 -2%
déc.-96 -2%
déc.-01 déc.-06 déc.-11
-4% -4%
-7% -7% -7% -6%
-10%
-13%
-20% -17% -17% -17%
-20%
-24%
-30%
-40%
-40%
Source: S&P, data from January 3rd 1950 to June 29th 2012 in USD Next Generation Equities
All data are annualized. Volatility are calculated using a weekly data on a 52-week rolling period 2
3. Equity context : one or two lost decades ?
The market – MSCI World The clients
« I agree to give up some gains if it helps
A trading range reducing losses »
with high volatility?
« Active portfolio managers are bound by
their benchmarks and do not avoid market
bubbles »
« Are market cap weighted indices good
benchmarks ?»
Source: Amundi, MSCI. Price index, monthly data in USD to Next Generation Equities
15/09/2012 3
4. Equity context : vulnerable macro backdrop for years
Years of global deleveraging process to live through
Exhausted policy mix
Sub-potential, vulnerable growth cycle leads to macro volatility
Debt to GDP ratio Monetary policy
Composite of Central Bank interest rates
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: IMF, Reinhart and Rogoff Next Generation Equities
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5. Amundi’s offers to navigate through volatile markets
From “Relative risk” strategies Information ratio
To “Total risk” strategies Sharpe ratio
Minimum Variance Minimum Risk-parity Directional TOBAM
correlation (“Smart”) asymmetrical
Double Yield
Low volatility Equi-risk Monetize equity Anti-benchmark
anomaly approach volatility skewness approach
Low average
correlation
Launched 12/2007 Launched 12/2010 Launched 06/2010 Launched 12/2005 Launched 12/2005
Next Generation AUM : EUR 3.0bn
Source: Amundi. Data as of end September 2012 Next Generation Equities
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6. Seasoned processes enhancing risk – return ratios
Downside risks reduced
Higher compounded annualized returns
Asymmetrical participation (bull/bear)
Unconstrained approaches (high TE)
Global Universe - Simulation
Cumulated Sharpe Max up down
04/2003 - 06/2012 Volatility
Return Ratio Drawdown participation participation
Max Diversification / HDYield 203,0% 13,4% 0,81 -34,2% 90,9% 58,5%
Minimum Variance 197,5% 10,3% 1,03 -31,5% 73,8% 37,0%
Risk parity - SMART 186,0% 15,7% 0,65 -46,5% 104,8% 80,3%
Asymmetry 88,6% 11,2% 0,46 -32,2% 65,9% 52,9%
TOBAM 147,6% 11,5% 0,73 -35,1% 81,2% 58,2%
MSCI World 82,5% 16,6% 0,29 -54,0%
Excess sharpe
Inception
Excess sharpe ratio date
ratio vs
since stategy inception benchmark
Max Diversification / HDYield Apr. 2003 0,52
Minimum Variance Jan. 2003 0,71
Risk parity - SMART Jan. 2003 0,35
Asymmetry Aug. 2000 0,23
TOBAM Dec. 1998 0,35
Gross total return performance in USD. Monthly data Next Generation Equities
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7. Disclaimer
This material is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation, a solicitation, an offer, an advice or an invitation to purchase
or sell any fund, SICAV, sub-fund, (“the Funds”) described herein and should in no case be interpreted as such.
This material, which is not a contract, is based on sources that Amundi considers to be reliable. Data, opinions and estimates may be changed without notice.
Amundi accepts no liability whatsoever, whether direct or indirect, that may arise from the use of information contained in this material. Amundi can in no way
be held responsible for any decision or investment made on the basis of information contained in this material.
The information contained in this document is disclosed to you on a confidential basis and shall not be copied, reproduced, modified, translated or distributed
without the prior written approval of Amundi, to any third person or entity in any country or jurisdiction which would subject Amundi or any of “the Funds”, to any
registration requirements within these jurisdictions or where it might be considered as unlawful. Accordingly, this material is for distribution solely in jurisdictions
where permitted and to persons who may receive it without breaching applicable legal or regulatory requirements.
Not all funds, or sub-funds will be necessarily be registered or authorized in all jurisdictions or be available to all investors.
Investment involves risk. Past performances and simulations based on these, do not guarantee future results, nor are they reliable indicators of futures
performances.
The value of an investment in the Funds, in any security or financial product may fluctuate according to market conditions and cause the value of an investment
to go up or down. As a result, you may lose, as the case may be, the amount originally invested.
All investors should seek the advice of their legal and/or tax counsel or their financial advisor prior to any investment decision in order to determine its suitability.
It is your responsibility to read the legal documents in force in particular the current French prospectus for each fund, as approved by the AMF, and each
investment should be made on the basis of such prospectus, a copy of which can be obtained upon request free of charge at the registered office of the
management company.
Amundi, French joint stock company (“Société Anonyme”) with a registered capital of € 578 002 350 and
approved by the French Securities Regulator (Autorité des Marchés Financiers-AMF) under number GP
04000036 as a portfolio management company
90 boulevard Pasteur -75015 Paris- France – 437 574 452 RCS Paris.
www.amundi.com
Next Generation Equities
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