Water Education Foundation San Diego Tour, by Kelley Gage

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September 8, 2011 presentation on long-term water supply planning, Urban Water Management Plans, and San Diego County's local water resources.

September 8, 2011 presentation on long-term water supply planning, Urban Water Management Plans, and San Diego County's local water resources.

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  • 1. San Diego County Water Authority 2010 Urban Water Management Plan l Kelley Gage Senior Water Resources Specialist September 8, 2011 1
  • 2. Water Authority’s 2010 UWMPWater Authority’s 2010 UWMP Update required by law every 5 years; purpose and importance has grown since first required 25 years ago Includes elements of drought management planning Official Water Authority policy document on supply and demand management planning for the region Utilized as supporting document in preparation of water supply assessments/verifications under SB 610 & 221 Required to be eligible to receive funding or drought assistance from state Foundation document for 2012 Facilities Master Plan 2
  • 3. 2010 Pl M i El2010 Plan Main Elements Water Use Water Demand Water Scenario Efficiency Resource Forecast Supplies Planning Target Mix Econometric Process to Water Resource Model M d l R t il Retail manage Authority mix to meet utilizing Compliance supply and member demands in SANDAG with SBX7-7: uncertainties agency normal and Regional 20% savings associated verifiable dry water Growth by 2020 with supplies l years Forecast resource mix 3 3
  • 4. SBX7 7 C liSBX7‐7 Compliance q pp Requires retail water suppliers to achieve a 20% reduction in urban per capita water use by 2020  Retail compliance can be achieved through a combination of recycled water supplies and additional b f l d l d dd l conservation savings Requires wholesale water agencies to include in their UWMPs discussions of programs they intend to implement to support water demand reduction p pp goals 4
  • 5. Normal Year Baseline Demand Normal Year Baseline Demand  Forecast with Future Conservation (AF) 1,000 TAF) 900 emand (T 800Total De 700 600 2020 2025 2030 2035 Baseline Demand without Price Effect Baseline Demand with Price Effect SBx 7‐7 Compliance Demand 5
  • 6. W t A th it P j t d S li Water Authority Projected Supplies  (Verifiable) 400 350 300 Carlsbad SeawaterTAF Desalination (online 250 2016) 200 Canal Lining Projects 150 100 IID Water Transfer 50 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 6
  • 7. M b A P j t dS liMember Agency Projected Supplies(Verifiable)140120100 80 Recycled Water 60 Groundwater 40 Surface Water 20 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Existing 7
  • 8. Development of Projected WaterDevelopment of Projected Water Resources Mix Member Retail Agency Local Compliance Supplies S li SBX7-7 S i SBX7 7 Savings “Verifiable” Targets Projected j Resource Mixes SDCWA MWD Supplies Supplies ( (Normal and Allocation Years) (QSA, Carlsbad Desal) 8
  • 9. Normal Water Year Assessment (2030)Normal Water Year Assessment (2030) (Verifiable Supplies) Demands 753 TAFNo shortages 800 MWDanticipated if: 700• Supplies are pp 600 292 TAF developed as planned Carlsbad by MWD, Water 500 Seawater Authority and 56 TAF Desalination 400 member agencies 124 TAF 300 Member• Member agencies Agency achieve SBX7 7 SBX7-7 200 Local savings targets 280 TAF 100 Supplies 0 QSA 2030 Projected Transfer Normal Year Supplies 9
  • 10. Single Dry Year Water Assessment (2030)Single Dry Year Water Assessment (2030) (Verifiable Supplies) Demands 804 TAF MWDNo shortages 900anticipated if: 800• Supplies are pp 700 developed as planned Regional 600 375 TAF Seawater by MWD, Water 500 Desalination Authority and (Carlsbad) member agencies 400 56 TAF 92 TAF Member• Member agencies 300 Agency achieve SBX7 7 SBX7-7 200 Local savings targets 152 TAF Supplies 100 QSA 0 Transfer 2030 Projected Dry Year Supplies 10
  • 11. Multiple Dry Year Assessment (SupplyMultiple Dry Year Assessment (Supply Allocations) 12 TAF Shortage* 900,000 PotentialPotential shortages 800,000 Shortage*in some years 700,000 Carryover y• Mitigated through 600,000 Storage carryover storage and 500,000 shortage g MWD 400,000 400 000 Allocation All i management actions 300,000 (P.R.) Member 200,000 , Agency 100,000 Supplies 0 Water Authority 2026 2027 2028 Supplies 11
  • 12. Scenario Planning – Managing anScenario Planning – Managing an  Uncertain Future Growth SWP Reliability Recurring Droughts Local Projects Climate Change Development Risk 12
  • 13. M j S i S i Pl i PMajor Steps in Scenario Planning Process  Projected j Uncertainty y Potential Key Tracking y g Resources Scenarios Strategies Metrics Mix • Based on • Qualitative • Metrics to track • Develop in critical and implementation coordination uncertainties t i ti quantitative tit ti of resource mix f i with member • Risk • Manage and potential agencies assessment of uncertainties need for resources mix • Fill potential p strategies • Identify “supply gap” • Avoid over “supply gap” investment 13
  • 14. 2010 Pl 2010 Plan – S i Pl i Scenario Planning  Evaluated 6 scenarios Scenario 4: Limited MWD, Water Authority  Developed based on and Member Agency Local Supplies uncertainties 1000  Quantitative and 900 Gap qualitative 800 Carryover TAF Identified potential 700 Storage supply gap 600 MWD  50 – 120 TAF 500 (allocations) Identified strategies to 400 S SBX7-7 300 Savings fill gap 200 Local Supply  Additional planned (2009 levels) projects j t 100 QSA 0 2030 (dry year) 14
  • 15. 2010 Pl2010 Plan ‐ A hi i R li bili Achieving Reliability Continue to explore Implement diverse water development of additional resource mix planned projects Supply Reliability Retail R t il compliance with li ith Adaptive management SBX7-7 conservation through Scenario Planning target 15