Planning for Climate Change Special Water Planning Committee Meeting             January 10, 2013
Workshop Agenda Introduction of speakers Purpose of Climate Action Plan Briefing on local climate studies Current clim...
Water Supply and Climate Change  Potential impacts on supply and demand require   adaptive planning approach  Legislativ...
Climate Action Plan as part of     Comprehensive Planning FY 2012 and FY 2013 CIP Approved Budget    Water Facilities Ma...
Workshop Agenda Introduction of speakers Purpose of Climate Action Plan Briefing on local climate studies Current clim...
Climate Change: concerns about increased      dryness in Southern California                       Dan Cayan    Climate At...
Great year-to-year variability in San Diego precipitation           Ranges from ~33% to 280% of average                   ...
and, when Southern California is dry--     Northern California is often dry       and the Colorado River drainage is somet...
average summer    afternoon temperature                            9
average summer    afternoon temperature                            GFDL A2 1km downscaled to 1km                          ...
Projected Climate Warming through the 21st Century• because of greenhouse gas build-up we are committed and are already wa...
California’s Sierra Nevada snowpack      How long will it remain?        Sponsors:         California Energy Commission, C...
Substantial Decline of California Spring SnowPack from Projected Climate Warming       high or even higher losses by end o...
Projected patterns of precipitation changes      2090-2099 versus 1980-1999      Globally, dry regions become drier      i...
San Diego County Hydrological Modeling Framework   Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC)       A SIO/SDCWA Project         ...
SummaryCalifornia has a dry, volatile climate. Southern California’s water supply vulnerable to climate changes and weathe...
Workshop Agenda Introduction of speakers Purpose of Climate Action Plan Briefing on local climate studies Current clim...
State Regulatory Context• Executive Order S-3-05  • Identifies Climate Change as an issue California needs    to address  ...
AB 32 Compliance Guidance AB 32 states that emissions in 2020 shall be reduced  to 1990 levels However, few agencies hav...
State & Federal GHG Reduction              MeasuresSB 375             Per-capita GHG reductions from passenger vehicles (7...
What is Legally Required of the      Water Authority? Cannot hinder State from achieving 2020 goals Individual projects ...
Workshop Agenda Introduction of speakers Purpose of Climate Action Plan Briefing on local climate studies Current clim...
San Diego County Water Authority    Response to Climate ChangePartnerships        Adaptation         Mitigation    Collabo...
San Diego County Water Authority    Response to Climate ChangePartnerships        Adaptation         Mitigation    Collabo...
Examples of Partnerships in Research Scripps Institution of Oceanography/  San Diego Foundation   Currently collaboratin...
San Diego County Water Authority       Response to Climate ChangePartnerships        Adaptation         Mitigation    Coll...
Climate Change Response Incorporated     throughout SDCWA Activities Regional Supply Planning Facility Master Planning ...
Regional Supply Planning         Climate Adaptation Process                      Understanding Understanding climate scien...
Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change               (Example)Area of Concern• Changes in rainfall and runoff patterns ...
SDCWA 2010 Urban Water Management Plan   Incorporating Uncertainty into Supply Planning 1. Analyzed climate change impact ...
Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Demand  SIO provided downscaled temperature and precipitation   projections for the...
SDCWA 2010 UWMP – Major Steps in     Scenario Planning ProcessProjected        Uncertainty       Potential          Key Tr...
Implement Resource Strategies to ManageUncertainties and Adapt to Climate Change Diversify sources of supply     Develop...
San Diego County Water Authority       Response to Climate ChangePartnerships        Adaptation         Mitigation    Coll...
San Diego County Water Authority           Mitigation Strategies The Climate Action Plan will be developed in conjunction...
CAP Meets Legal Requirements Required for developing a “qualified greenhouse gas    reduction plan” under CEQA Guidelines...
Benefits of Comprehensive PlanningClimate Action Plan (CAP):• CEQA streamlining for future projects• Can look at the “big”...
Water Authority’s Climate Action Plan• Inventory GHG sources (facilities, buildings, fleet)• Estimate emission changes ove...
CAP Development• Climate Action Plan will comply with all mandated GHG  reduction target requirements and timelines set fo...
Summary of Ongoing Activities SDCWA Response to Climate ChangePartnerships             Adaptation           Mitigation  Sc...
Timeline of Next StepsJan. 10, 2013               Jan. 24, 2012                   Feb. 28, 2013• Special Water Planning   ...
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January 10, 2013

  1. 1. Planning for Climate Change Special Water Planning Committee Meeting January 10, 2013
  2. 2. Workshop Agenda Introduction of speakers Purpose of Climate Action Plan Briefing on local climate studies Current climate change regulations Water Authority’s planning for climate change Next steps 2
  3. 3. Water Supply and Climate Change  Potential impacts on supply and demand require adaptive planning approach  Legislative and regulatory requirements  CEQA / AB 32  Water Authority formed partnerships to enhance science understanding & collaborate on solutions  Water Authority 2010 Urban Water Management Plan  Impacts of climate change on demand and supplies  Local climate modeling provided by Scripps Institute 3
  4. 4. Climate Action Plan as part of Comprehensive Planning FY 2012 and FY 2013 CIP Approved Budget  Water Facilities Master Plan  Climate Action Plan  Water Facilities Master Plan Program EIR Conducting all 3 studies provides the Board:  Comprehensive information to set long term direction  Full and thorough evaluation of long-term facility needs and associated environmental impacts Comprehensive planning approach is cost effective 4
  5. 5. Workshop Agenda Introduction of speakers Purpose of Climate Action Plan Briefing on local climate studies Current climate change regulations Water Authority’s planning for climate change Next steps 5
  6. 6. Climate Change: concerns about increased dryness in Southern California Dan Cayan Climate Atmospheric and Physical Oceanography Research Division Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego Sponsors: San Diego Foundation California Energy Commission NOAA RISA program 6 6
  7. 7. Great year-to-year variability in San Diego precipitation Ranges from ~33% to 280% of average 7
  8. 8. and, when Southern California is dry-- Northern California is often dry and the Colorado River drainage is sometimes dry 8
  9. 9. average summer afternoon temperature 9
  10. 10. average summer afternoon temperature GFDL A2 1km downscaled to 1km Hugo Hidalgo Tapash Das Mike Dettinger 10
  11. 11. Projected Climate Warming through the 21st Century• because of greenhouse gas build-up we are committed and are already warming• amount of warming in future decades depends on greenhouse gas emissions 11
  12. 12. California’s Sierra Nevada snowpack How long will it remain? Sponsors: California Energy Commission, California DWR NOAA RISA program US Geological Survey Douglas Alden US Department of Energy Scripps Institution of Oceanography Installing met station, Lee Vining, CA 12 12
  13. 13. Substantial Decline of California Spring SnowPack from Projected Climate Warming high or even higher losses by end of 21st Century depending on how much warming David Pierce/Dan Cayan Dec 2012 to appear in California Water Plan Updat See also Pierce and Cayan 2013 J Climate 13
  14. 14. Projected patterns of precipitation changes 2090-2099 versus 1980-1999 Globally, dry regions become drier including the Southwest United States! 14
  15. 15. San Diego County Hydrological Modeling Framework Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) A SIO/SDCWA Project sponsored by SD Foundation and CNAP RISA Hillslope Routing Runoff (HRR) Streamflow (cfs) 2,000 0 G M2 15
  16. 16. SummaryCalifornia has a dry, volatile climate. Southern California’s water supply vulnerable to climate changes and weather extremes.Warming is already underway and more to come +2ºF by 2050. Model projections suggest warming may be intensified in summer, especially in interior areas.Recent IPCC climate model projections for California precipitation are scattered, but several show significant drying.Hydrological model simulations indicate these drying trends, if they were to occur, would be more accentuated in runoff and soil moisture. Frank Gehrke, 16 California Cooperative Snow Surveys, DWR 16 16
  17. 17. Workshop Agenda Introduction of speakers Purpose of Climate Action Plan Briefing on local climate studies Current climate change regulations Water Authority’s planning for climate change Next steps 17
  18. 18. State Regulatory Context• Executive Order S-3-05 • Identifies Climate Change as an issue California needs to address • 2000 emissions levels by 2010 • 1990 levels by 2020 • 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 (from IPCC)• Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32) • Requires GHG emission reductions • 1990 levels by 2020• CEQA Guidelines Revisions (SB 97) • Requires analysis of GHG emissions • Required to make CEQA determination on GHG emissions • Comprehensive approach or project-by-project basis 18
  19. 19. AB 32 Compliance Guidance AB 32 states that emissions in 2020 shall be reduced to 1990 levels However, few agencies have accurate data from 1990 CARB has determined that a 15% reduction from baseline levels (e.g., 2005-2010) can be used to comply with AB 32 19
  20. 20. State & Federal GHG Reduction MeasuresSB 375 Per-capita GHG reductions from passenger vehicles (7% by 2020; 13% by 2035)SB X 1-2 California utilities must provide at least 33% of their electricity from renewable resources by 2020EO S-1-07 Requires a reduction in the carbon intensity of California transportation fuels of at least 10% by 2020.AB 1493 and CAFE Vehicle emissions standards for 2016 and 2025Cap & Trade Requires participation of large emission generators and creates a market-based system with an overall emissions limit for affected sectors 20
  21. 21. What is Legally Required of the Water Authority? Cannot hinder State from achieving 2020 goals Individual projects must undergo CEQA review CAP streamlines CEQA analysis for GHG emissions on future projects Water Authority has chosen to prepare a Climate Action Plan (Section 15183.5) 21
  22. 22. Workshop Agenda Introduction of speakers Purpose of Climate Action Plan Briefing on local climate studies Current climate change regulations Water Authority’s planning for climate change Next steps 22
  23. 23. San Diego County Water Authority Response to Climate ChangePartnerships Adaptation Mitigation Collaborate with entities on understanding Reduce Reduce Reduce supply greenhouse climate change vulnerability to vulnerability to impacts and climate change gas emissions climate change to comply with ways to impacts impacts mitigate and AB 32 / CEQA adapt 23
  24. 24. San Diego County Water Authority Response to Climate ChangePartnerships Adaptation Mitigation Collaborate with entities on Reduce understanding Reduce supply greenhouse climate change vulnerability to gas emissions impacts and climate change to comply with ways to impacts AB 32 / CEQA mitigate and adapt 24
  25. 25. Examples of Partnerships in Research Scripps Institution of Oceanography/ San Diego Foundation  Currently collaborating to identify impacts to local reservoir yield due to climate change Vista Irrigation District Water Utility Climate Alliance Lake Henshaw  Ten utilities that collaborate on climate change issues affecting drinking water California Urban Water Agencies  Ten major urban water agencies responsible for about two-thirds of California’s drinking water supply www.wucaonline.org 25
  26. 26. San Diego County Water Authority Response to Climate ChangePartnerships Adaptation Mitigation Collaborate with entities on Reduce understanding Reduce supply greenhouse climate change vulnerability to gas emissions impacts and climate change to comply with ways to impacts AB 32 / CEQA mitigate and adapt 26
  27. 27. Climate Change Response Incorporated throughout SDCWA Activities Regional Supply Planning Facility Master Planning Environmental Planning (Climate Action Plan) Water Authority Solar Panels Capital Improvement Program Operations San Vicente Dam Raise 27
  28. 28. Regional Supply Planning Climate Adaptation Process Understanding Understanding climate science and climate model projections AssessAssess water system vulnerabilities to potential climate changes Plan Incorporate climate change into water utility planning Implement Implement adaptation strategies 28
  29. 29. Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change (Example)Area of Concern• Changes in rainfall and runoff patterns Potential Impact on Water Resources • Reduced reservoir yield • Increased frequency and intensity of droughts Primary Supplies Affected • Imported • Local Groundwater and Surface Waters 29
  30. 30. SDCWA 2010 Urban Water Management Plan Incorporating Uncertainty into Supply Planning 1. Analyzed climate change impact on water demands 2. Conducted traditional scenario planning process  Identify “no regret” strategies to manage uncertainties and adapt to climate changeSupply Uncertainties Project SWP Reliability Climate Change Development Risks Recurring Droughts Growth 30
  31. 31. Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Demand  SIO provided downscaled temperature and precipitation projections for the San Diego region  Substituted downscaled weather data into demand model Average Results from Alternative  Analysis resulted in slight Climate Scenarios increase in demand over Sector Difference from 2035 UWMP planning horizon Baseline Demand (2035) Overall +1.2%  Appears that any significant Single Family +1.9% increase in water demand Multifamily +0.2% will occur beyond 2035 Non-Residential +0.4% Agricultural +3.3% 31
  32. 32. SDCWA 2010 UWMP – Major Steps in Scenario Planning ProcessProjected Uncertainty Potential Key TrackingResources Scenarios Strategies MetricsMix • Based on • Programs and • Metrics to track• Develop in critical Projects implementation coordination uncertainties • Manage of resource mix with member • Risk uncertainties and need for agencies assessment of • Fill potential additional resources mix “supply gap” strategies • Identify “supply gap” 32
  33. 33. Implement Resource Strategies to ManageUncertainties and Adapt to Climate Change Diversify sources of supply  Develop local projects not vulnerable to climate change  Promote conservation Increase storage capacity to capture variable runoffSan Vicente Dam Raise Water Efficient Plantings Water Recycling 33
  34. 34. San Diego County Water Authority Response to Climate ChangePartnerships Adaptation Mitigation Collaborate with entities on Reduce understanding Reduce supply greenhouse climate change vulnerability to gas emissions impacts and climate change to comply with ways to impacts AB 32 / CEQA mitigate and adapt 34
  35. 35. San Diego County Water Authority Mitigation Strategies The Climate Action Plan will be developed in conjunction with the 2013 Master Plan Update  Purpose: To proactively address the issue of climate change as it relates to activities within the Water Authority  The Water Authority is taking action to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions Master Plan Climate Action Plan Identify future facilities needed Will add new facilities to and associated emissions baseline emissions 35
  36. 36. CAP Meets Legal Requirements Required for developing a “qualified greenhouse gas reduction plan” under CEQA Guidelines Section 15183.5 Baseline greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory Estimate of future emissions based on anticipated growth (Master Plan projects and operations) Defines GHG reduction targets Strategies that are feasible and meet reduction targets Monitoring program and flexibility to revise assumptions and estimates as new/better data becomes available In order to qualify as a GHG reduction plan, specific requirements for compliance 36
  37. 37. Benefits of Comprehensive PlanningClimate Action Plan (CAP):• CEQA streamlining for future projects• Can look at the “big” picture through comprehensive analysis of cumulative impacts• Provides broad list of mitigation measures • Possible cost savings through energy efficiency and water conservation• Contributes to regional sustainability goals• Demonstrates leadership within the community 37
  38. 38. Water Authority’s Climate Action Plan• Inventory GHG sources (facilities, buildings, fleet)• Estimate emission changes over time, including new facilities from Master Plan• Establish required targets for compliance• Identify mitigation actions to reduce GHGs• Document GHG reduction measures on feasibility, cost and implementation• Allow for periodic updates 38
  39. 39. CAP Development• Climate Action Plan will comply with all mandated GHG reduction target requirements and timelines set forth in AB 32 and CEQA • 1990 levels by 2020 (15% reduction from baseline)• Uncertainty regarding regulatory requirements beyond 2020 • CAP will be updated every 5 years, concurrent with Master Plan and UWMP • Address changes in future updates 39
  40. 40. Summary of Ongoing Activities SDCWA Response to Climate ChangePartnerships Adaptation Mitigation Scripps Institution Implement resource of Oceanography strategies to manage supply Complete 2013 The San Diego uncertainties Climate Action Plan Foundation and implement cost-effective Water Utility Climate Update plans with mitigation actions Alliance latest research on to reduce GHG impacts and emissions California Urban adaptation Water Agencies (2015 UWMP) 40
  41. 41. Timeline of Next StepsJan. 10, 2013 Jan. 24, 2012 Feb. 28, 2013• Special Water Planning • Water Planning • Water Planning Committee: Workshop on Committee: Information Committee: Information Climate Change item on status of Master item on status of Master Plan and related activities Plan and related activitiesFeb. 2013 Mar. 14, 2013 Mar. 2013• Member Agency TAC mtg. • Special Water Planning • Member Agency TAC• Issue Notice of Committee: Workshop on meeting Preparation (NOP) to Master Plan begin CEQA processMar./Apr. 2013 Jul. to Sep. 2013 Nov. 2013• Water Planning Release of Draft Program Water Planning Committee: Selection of EIR, CAP and draft Master Committee: Final Master Plan preferred Plan for 45-day review and Program EIR certification alternative & CAP comment period and approval of Master approach Plan and CAP 41

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