Counter-hydro-hegemony in the Nile Basin: tipping the balance of power in favour of upstream riparian states Presentation to HH6 Workshop London, 12 January 2013 Ana Elisa Cascão, SIWI
Nile Basin: Geopolitical changes since HH5 • New map • New riparian (South Sudan) • Political volte-faceState of the Nile River Basin 2012 (NBI) • Redefinition of regional political & economic landscape • New infrastructure projects • Change of balance of power • New cooperation paradigms?
Bargaining and Ideational Power: what has changed?• Negotiations capacity• Power to set the ’Less’ power asymmetries agenda/timing• Collective bargaining power• New geopolitical actors and Counter-hegemonic actions settings• New ’joker’ cards (e.g. GRD)• New paradigm of Challenges to status quo cooperation
Multilateral Cooperation: the good and the evil Basin-wide Multilateral development of Cooperation transboundary water resources Basin-wide legal and institutional framework? New paradigms for development of water resources? Agenda-setting: who calls the shots?
Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA): A new hydropolitical set-up on the Nile? 1997-2007: Multilateral negotiations 2007-2010: Interlude 2010: Signature of the new CFA > 2013: Ratification by upstream riparians A not-all inclusive Nile Basin Commission?
Grand Renaissance Dam:a new paradigm for cooperation? • Multilateral cooperation has not delivered • Increasing needs and demands • Ethiopian unilateral move • Trilateral Committee • New paradigm for cooperation?
Cooperation without donors?• Who calls the shots?• Cooperation outside the NBI (although...)• Country-driven• Trilateral talks• Investment-driven• No external funding
Outcomes of transboundary cooperation Ideational Bargaining status quo Multilateral Conflict deadlock Cooperation avoidance Ideational Creative changeBilateral/Trilateral Conflict bargaining Cooperation addressed
Conclusions How do we know that soft power is being utilised?How does it have an impact on water resources management practices and allocation outcome?How can we assess it as being a form of justice being argued?