Training and Simulation and Beyond

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Presentation at IQPC's Armoured Vehicles Africa Conference 4 July 2013 – London UK

Presentation at IQPC's Armoured Vehicles Africa Conference 4 July 2013 – London UK

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  • Moore's Law says that the number of transistors on a given chip can be doubled every two yearsNielsen's Law says that network bandwidth available to users doubles roughly every 21 monthsKryder's Law says the density of information on hard drives doubles roughly every 13 months
  • Varies from system to system.Trend lines -
  • Varies from system to system.Trend lines -
  • Varies from system to system.Trend lines -

Transcript

  • 1. Andy Fawkes IQPC - Armoured Vehicles Africa – London UK 4 July 2013 Training and Simulation and Beyond
  • 2. What is this about? • The impact of Digital Technologies on: –Preparing your People –Ability of the Threat to Prepare
  • 3. My Background Source - UK MoD; NATO
  • 4. Overview • Military Training and Education • Training and Education Technology • Simulation • Beyond Simulation • A Buyer’s Guide
  • 5. Military Training and Education
  • 6. Military Training and Education (UK) • Scale - 257,160 Military/Civilian (2011) • Depth – eg. Fighter Pilot, Reactor Operator • Breadth – Apache Pilot through to Cook • Flexibility – Current Operations
  • 7. Global Defence Training and Simulation Market • Exceeds US$6.6 billion per year. • Although defence budgets are being cut, the simulation and training market is stable. Source:- South African National Defence Force (SANDF) (2013)
  • 8. Cost of Training and Education in Defence • Manpower • Platforms and Equipment • Fuel and Maintenance • Training Estate and Establishments • Training Systems and Simulators • Approximately 20% of Defence Budget
  • 9. Armoured Vehicle Training and Education • Individual • Crew • Collective • Joint • Combined • Support and Maintenance • OA, Experimentation and Acquisition
  • 10. Military Capability Defence Lines of Development (UK) • Training • Equipment • Personnel • Information • Doctrine and Concepts • Organisation • Infrastructure • Logistics Source:- UK MoD Acquisition Operating Framework - version 3.2.3 – July 2013
  • 11. Importance of Military Training and Education • The Military understands that training and education is fundamental to their endeavour • People are assessed by how well they do in Training • Career progression depends on training and education • Much of military life is spent training and exercising • Lessons learnt are fed back
  • 12. Training and Education Technology
  • 13. Nothing New Images - Imperial War Museum
  • 14. Nothing New
  • 15. Nothing New
  • 16. Falling Simulator Costs 0 50 100 150 200 250 1970s Now RelativeCost(%) Flight Simulator Combat Aircraft
  • 17. Simulation
  • 18. Source: Wikipedia; Pictures: Lockheed Martin, Royal Navy, CAE, PA What is Simulation? Typically a military training simulation is interactive, with a “human in the loop” eg. a flight simulator or driving simulator
  • 19. What is Simulation?
  • 20. Live Simulation A simulation involving real people operating real systems. Virtual Simulation A simulation involving real people operating simulated systems. Constructive Simulation Models and simulations that involve simulated people operating simulated systems. Real people stimulate such simulations, but are not involved in determining the outcomes. Live Virtual Constructive Simulation Source:- DoD M&S Glossary 5000.59-M
  • 21. Why Use Simulation? Reduce Costs Improve Training Reduce Environmental Impact Safety Reduce Time to Train
  • 22. Benefits of Simulation • A Canadian Study looked at the influence VBS had on their Armour School's Troop Warrant Officer’s course. • A blended approach (Serial 0702) cost about 33% less through reductions in fuel etc and drove the pass rate up from 72% to 100% compared to purely live training. • Only one day of VBS took the pass rate to 30%. • The new blended live/simulation mix reduced the cost to train (and qualify) each trainee by about a half. I/ITSEC Conference 2008 Paper Games – Just How Serious Are They? Dr. Paul A. Roman Mr. Doug Brown Source:- “Games – Just How Serious Are They?” - Dr. Paul A. Roman & Mr. Doug Brown – I/ITSEC 2008
  • 23. Cost of Training? Estate People Platforms Fuel Weapons Estate People Simulation Fuel Live Simulation
  • 24. Live-Synthetic Balance !   !! # * ?  ?
  • 25. The Live Synthetic Balance • Language – What does the word “Synthetic” Convey? • Culture - “Live will never be replaced” • Assessing Training Cost Effectiveness is Difficult • The simulation needs to be in place first • Technology is Changing and so do Operations • How often do we change the Way we Manage?
  • 26. 2010s - Access to Simulation 1990 2000 2010 Numbers 10’s 100’s 1000’s
  • 27. What is Driving the Advances in Simulation? • Computing/Internet/Multimedia/Games • The UK has an internet economy 8.3% of GDP (2012) (defence 2.5%) Source:- Wikipedia
  • 28. Simulation for Operations: More than just training? • Exploiting the simulation facility • Collating, filtering, displaying the information • Through-mission simulation
  • 29. “All But War Is Simulation” Credit:- US Army's Program Executive Office for Simulation, Training, & Instrumentation (PEOSTRI)
  • 30. Beyond Simulation
  • 31. Are things changing?
  • 32. Mobile (2013) Source:- visual.ly
  • 33. Internet Usage 2012 Source:- www.internetworldstats.com
  • 34. www.intel.com
  • 35. Putting Technology in Perspective
  • 36. Training and Education Technology
  • 37. Knowledge in Your Hands
  • 38. Major Players in the MOOC Universe Source: The Chronicle of Higher Education (2013) MOOC massive open online course
  • 39. Digital and Online Classrooms South Korea 2015 Florida 2015 Stanford University 2012 - 23,000 Graduates
  • 40. Interfaces & Augmented Reality Images: Microsoft, Organic Motion
  • 41. Looking Ahead? • Robots/AI • Internet of Things/”Connected Life” • Wearable Computers • Sensors • Augmented Reality • 3D Printing/3D Scanning • “Generation C”
  • 42. Internet of Things/Connected Life - Vehicles • By 2020 it is expected that 90% of new passenger cars sold will be connected to the Internet – Position/Speed Monitoring – Continuous Testing/Evaluation – Just in time repair • 75% of cars on the road by 2040 will be autonomous IEEE (Sep 12)
  • 43. The Future of Knowledge and Skills? Larry Page - 2004 "Search will be included in people's brains…. Eventually, you'll have the implant, where if you think about a fact, it will just tell you the answer.“ Images - Google Sergey Brin – 2012 “You'll ride in robot cars within 5 years”
  • 44. Train Less.. Train at All?
  • 45. Military & Civilian Technology Convergence?
  • 46. Time Spent in Training and Education? “Classroom” “Simulation” “Live” “Classroom” “Simulation” “Live” Future? Now
  • 47. A Buyer’s Guide
  • 48. Who/What is the Technology Benefitting? • The Organisation – eg. improved cost effectiveness • The Trainee – eg. 24/7 access to knowledge • The Trainer – eg. audio/visual aids • All of the Above
  • 49. Organisational Boundaries Office Systems Office Systems Sim Sim Sim Sim Sim Sim Sim DLP Learning Tech Learning Tech Learning Tech Learning Tech Sim Learning Tech ISTAR Systems C2 Systems C2 Systems ISTAR Systems Office Systems
  • 50. The Mysteries of Simulation DIS SEDRIS HLA Architectures Agent-based ASP Distributed M&S CORBA DoDAF Serious Gaming CBML Human-in-the-loop Monte Carlo Latency LVCSOAP AVCATT CATT MSHTF DSALT MCTS I/ITSEC ITEC SISO NMSG DTEC SCORM DLP VR synthetic environment RTI Federate SEBA EmulationConstructive CGF TENA Accreditation BOM VV&A AI AR FOM DTED
  • 51. How much? • “Cost Simulation 20% of Live Training” • “Cost Simulation 5% of Live Training” • “Training 20% of Defence Budget” • “Save £100m’s” £ $ ? €
  • 52. Provision of Training and Simulation • Training or Simulation or Both? • Equipment or Service • As Part of Overall Vehicle Procurement Contract? • As Separate Training/Simulation Procurement Contract? • Army provided – Central – Local
  • 53. Getting it Wrong Photograph: Alamy
  • 54. Level of Fidelity • Visual – Degrees of view – Resolution – Frame rate • Audio • Motion – Motion Cues – Physical challenge • Human Machine Interface – “Switchology” – Constraint • Data
  • 55. Mental Capacity Demands of a Mission Aviate Comms & Procedures Mission / Situational awareness Enemy Forces Friendly Forces Internal External othersFly Checks Crew Training Mission Training
  • 56. Simulation Cost/Capability Spectrum Full Motion Simulators Part Task Trainers Mission Trainers Training Media Individual Crew Collective £1m£5m£20m+
  • 57. Combined Arms Tactical Trainer (UK) • CATT supports foundation and mission- specific training in Warminster (UK) and Sennelager (Germany). • Links 140 manned simulators and up to 450 participants – so all elements of the battlegroup can practise individual and collective skills. • Allows training crews to operate simulated vehicles and aircraft – and interact with computer-generated civilians as well as friendly/enemy forces. • Has 70 vehicle-specific simulators and 70 generic vehicle simulators that replicate surface and air vehicles. • Offers full after-action review so that participants get the full learning experience. Source:- Lockheed Martin
  • 58. – Procured as a Service – Mobile and deployable capability – Virtual Mission Specific Training – Improves response and awareness to threats – Provides tactical command and control training – Uses VBS2 – Scenarios including: • CIED drills • Mounted/Dismounted operations • Combat Logistic Patrols Operational Joint Combat Operations Virtual Environment (Op JCOVE) Source:- Newman & Spurr
  • 59. Modern Computer Games Based Simulation Software Bohemia’s VBS2 • Land Convoy Collective Training • IED Training & Situational Awareness • Aviation Tactics Training • Gunnery and Crew Training • Close Weapon Gunnery Training • Anti-Piracy & Boarding Operations Training • Fixed Wing Aviation Mission Training • Maritime Submarine Training Capability • Cultural Awareness & Language Training • Engineer Training • Army Recruiting • E-Learning
  • 60. Defence Systems Approach to Training Source: JSP 822
  • 61. Training & Education Technology Operating Model Derived from MIT Sloan School of Management Co-ordination • Diverse Software, Shared Data & Network Unification • Single Infrastructure and Services Diversification • Diverse Software, no Data Sharing & Network Replication • Similar Software, no Data Sharing & Network Organisation Standardisation OrganisationIntegration
  • 62. Enduring Principle • Focus on the Human Element of Warfare and Decision Making
  • 63. Questions ?? andy.fawkes@thinke.co.uk