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Climate Change

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Climate Change – Is Time of The Essence?

Climate Change – Is Time of The Essence?

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  • 1. ClimateChange A Sense of Urgency 1 http://walimemon.com Wali Memon
  • 2. 2 Wali Memon A paradox Noone sets out to change the climate or diminish the Earth‘s ability to sustain us. Yet that is exactly what is happening. Why? Collectively, the climate surprises us – it doesn‘t behave the way ‗common sense‘ might suggest. Systems like the climate — massive, slow to change, complex — fool our human intuition. We explore four capacities that allow individuals to respond creatively to the challenges climate change brings before us. http://walimemon.com
  • 3. 3 Wali MemonFour Capacities for Response toClimate Change  Through despair to empowerment  Climate change– a working knowledge  Vision,its importance and how to envision alternatives  What is climate change telling us? Learning from the Earth http://walimemon.com
  • 4. 4 Wali Memon Through Despair to EmpowermentClimate change is in the room.When I think about climate change … http://walimemon.com
  • 5. 5 Wali MemonEmotions as Guides Fear — pay attention Anger — protect something precious Sadnessor Grief — accept the things that cannot change Happinessor Excitement — seize the opportunity Numbness — response when short-term and long-term are conflicting; it is a signal to transcend that trap http://walimemon.com
  • 6. 6 Wali MemonThe Basics –the CO2 influence on theEarth‘s temperature http://walimemon.com
  • 7. 7 Wali MemonBefore the burning of fossil fuels CO2levels in the atmosphere were steady http://walimemon.com
  • 8. 8 Wali Memon CO2 levels were in balance for hundreds of years prior to our Industrial Revolution 400 380 360Atmospheric CO2 (ppm) 340 320 300 280 260 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 Year http://walimemon.com
  • 9. 9 Wali MemonWith the burning of fossil fuels, CO2emissions grew larger than removal http://walimemon.com
  • 10. 10 Wali Memon Today, we release more than twice asmuch CO2 as can be absorbed;the rest accumulates in the atmosphere Accumulates Emissions Absorbed http://walimemon.com
  • 11. 11 Wali Memon CO2 accumulations 400 380 360Atmospheric CO2 (ppm) 340 320 300 280 260 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 Year http://walimemon.com
  • 12. CO2 in the "recent" past 400 380 360 340 320 300 280 Wali Memon 260 240 220 200 180 160 12 http://walimemon.com
  • 13. CO2 in the past 13 Wali Memon 8000Atmospheric CO2 (ppm) 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 600 500 400 300 200 http://walimemon.com 100 0 Millions of Years Ago
  • 14. A useful image: higher CO2 levels 14 Wali Memonmean a thicker blanket aroundthe Earth, slowing the Earth‘scooling 1750 1950 2005 http://walimemon.com
  • 15. 15 Wali MemonIf you reduce the rate at whichsomething cools, it warms up http://walimemon.com
  • 16. 16 Wali MemonIf you reduce the rate at whichthe Earth cools, it warms up, too http://walimemon.com
  • 17. 17 Wali MemonSo far average temperatures haveincreased by about 1.3°F http://walimemon.com
  • 18. 18 Wali MemonClimate Change –A Working Knowledge Four Surprises 1 – Growth 2 – Delays 3 – Thresholds 4 – Conditions for stability http://walimemon.com
  • 19. 19 Wali MemonSurprise #1 Exponential Growth – the problem gets worse more and more quickly http://walimemon.com
  • 20. Yearly Carbon Dioxide Production From 20 Wali Memon Human Activities 8 7 6 Gigatons C/year 5 4 3 2 1 0 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 http://walimemon.com Year
  • 21. Yearly Carbon Dioxide Production 21 Wali MemonFrom Human Activities 8 7 6 Gigatons C/year 5 4 3 2 1 0 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year http://walimemon.com
  • 22. Yearly Carbon Dioxide Production 22 Wali MemonFrom Human Activities 8 7 6 Gigatons C/year 5 4 3 2 1 0 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year http://walimemon.com
  • 23. Yearly Carbon Dioxide Production 23 Wali MemonFrom Human Activities 8 7 6 Gigatons C/year 5 4 1896 Svante Arrhenius describes the phenomenon of the greenhouse effect 3 2 1 0 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year http://walimemon.com
  • 24. Yearly Carbon Dioxide Production 24 Wali MemonFrom Human Activities 8 7 1979 Ad Hoc Study Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate 6 Gigatons C/year If carbon dioxide continues to 5 increase, the study group finds no reason to doubt that climate 4 changes will result and no reason to believe that these changes will 3 be negligible…. 2 1 0 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year http://walimemon.com
  • 25. Yearly Carbon Dioxide Production 25 Wali MemonFrom Human Activities 8 The world has already reached the 7 level of dangerous concentrations of 6 carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Gigatons C/year We need immediate and very deep 5 cuts in CO2 emissions if humanity is 4 to survive. -- Dr. Rajendra Pachuri 3 Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in January, 2005 2 1 0 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year http://walimemon.com
  • 26. Yearly Carbon Dioxide Production 26 Wali MemonFrom Human Activities 8 7 6 Gigatons C/year 5 4 3 2 1 75 years 0 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year http://walimemon.com
  • 27. Implications of exponential 27 Wali Memongrowth of CO2 emissions… Our scientific and social processes take time to respond to change; meanwhile the problem gains momentum.  Delaying our response means taking on a much bigger problem in the future.  If you don‘t know when problems are triggered and something is growing exponentially, ―as soon as possible‖ is the right time to act. Seeing the momentum in the system helps focus us on how to address the problem– the drivers of this growth in emissions are the keys to stabilizing the climate http://walimemon.com
  • 28. 28 Wali MemonSurprise #2 - Delays – the climate responds slowly to changes in CO2 levels – CO2 levels respond slowly to changes in human decision making http://walimemon.com
  • 29. 29 Wali MemonThree key delays The slow process by which CO2 in the atmosphere leads to changes in temperature The lifetime of carbon in the atmosphere The lifetime of the stock of CO2 producing capital http://walimemon.com
  • 30. 30 Wali MemonSlow warmingA pot of water doesn‘t warm up instantly when you put its lid on, and the earth doesn‘t instantly warm under its CO2 blanket either. We‘ve only felt the full impact of the layers of the blanket added up to about 1970. http://walimemon.com
  • 31. 31 Wali Memon The emissions that have had time to impact Earth‘s temperature 400 380 360Atmospheric CO2 (ppm) 340 320 300 280 260 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 Year http://walimemon.com
  • 32. 32 Wali Memon More warming is inevitable 400 ? 380 ? 360Atmospheric CO2 (ppm) 340 ? 320 ? 300 280 ? 260 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 ? Year http://walimemon.com
  • 33. 33 Wali MemonDelays plus exponential growth 400 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 http://walimemon.com
  • 34. 34 Wali MemonSurprise # 3 Thresholds – at unknown temperatures climate change could begin to feed on itself http://walimemon.com
  • 35. 35 Wali MemonWarming can lead to morewarming-1 average temperature reflectivity ice at poles http://walimemon.com
  • 36. 36 Wali MemonWarming can lead to morewarming-2 average temperature methane release from thawing soils warming arctic http://walimemon.com
  • 37. 37 Wali MemonTargets, to avoid ‗runaway‘warming Status quo achievable with scale up of 500 known technologies 400-500 ppm CO2 recommended target to avoid 400 serious risk of "runaway" warming 380 360Atmospheric CO2 (ppm) 340 320 300 280 to return to the pre-industrial 260 climate 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 Year http://walimemon.com
  • 38. 38 Wali MemonSurprise #4 Emissions must fall to removal rate – CO2 levels won’t stabilize until emissions fall to removal rate http://walimemon.com
  • 39. 39 Wali MemonEmissions need to fall to the rate ofabsorption before CO2 will stopaccumulating in the atmosphere Accumulates Current Global Emissions If Kyoto Adopted stabilize CO2 Absorbed Needed to Emission Rates http://walimemon.com
  • 40. 40 Wali MemonReflections Insmall groups -- what are your reactions to what you have heard so far?  What (if anything) surprised you?  What (if anything) moved you?  What are you thinking?  What are you feeling? http://walimemon.com
  • 41. The Bottom Line: 41 Wali Memon Understanding the four surprises means…  Recognizing that some change is inevitable:  Even if we stopped CO2 pollution today the world would continue to warm for decades because of the emissions of the last 30 years http://walimemon.com
  • 42. The Bottom Line: 42 Wali Memon Understanding the four surprises means…  Recognizing that some kinds of changes will only result if we refuse to change our lives:  If we don‘t stabilize CO2 levels we run the risk of triggering runaway warming. http://walimemon.com
  • 43. 43 Wali MemonUnderstanding the foursurprises means… Recognizingthat some kinds of change could be ours if we were to take bold action:  Cutting our yearly CO2 production in half would allow CO2 levels to stabilize  If we want to make this choice, the sooner we do, the lower the risk and the more of the diversity of the Earth‘s cultures and species we retain. http://walimemon.com
  • 44. 44 Wali MemonSurprise #5 – TremendousOpportunities – there’s an abundance of actions waiting to be taken http://walimemon.com
  • 45. 45 Wali MemonWe‘ve yet to employ thetechnologies we already have http://walimemon.com
  • 46. 46 Wali MemonElectricity 25% of energy from renewable sources in Sweden 45% in Norway 4.2% in the US http://walimemon.com
  • 47. 47 Wali MemonCars and trucks Rocky Mountain Institute‘s Amory Lovin‘s "hypercar" design is projected to be able to travel 90 miles on one gallon of gasoline The mass produced Prius and Insight get more than 50 mpg Current US fleet average is 25 mpg http://walimemon.com
  • 48. 48 Wali Memon Bikes 50% of all trips in some Chinese More than cities are by bicycle In some cities in the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany, bicycles account for 20 to 30 % of all trips. Bikes used for less than 1% of trips in US and Canada  but40% of all trips in US are 2 miles or shorter  90% of emissions in a 7-mile trip are generated in the first mile before the engine warms up http://walimemon.com
  • 49. 49 Wali MemonLighting, heating, cooling, wind, hydro, solar…..Inall these areas the gap between what is possible and what is being implemented is astounding. http://walimemon.com
  • 50. 50 Wali MemonMany energy efficient habitsimprove quality of life, too Local food Less stuff more fun Finding our satisfaction where we are Others? http://walimemon.com
  • 51. 51 Wali MemonOur collective wealth hasn‘tbeen directed at the need US military spending US solar energy http://walimemon.com spending
  • 52. 52 Wali MemonWe understand the collectiveactions that could help Carbon limits Carbon taxes Renewable energy infrastructure Investment Sharing clean energy technology with developing nations http://walimemon.com
  • 53. 53 Wali MemonTwo levers for tapping theseresources Individual habits and choices  energy efficiency  investment (E.g., carbon offsets); many promising resources already Collective action  local, state, federal, change the rules, charge the full costs of pollution, make collective investment in clean energy http://walimemon.com
  • 54. 54 Wali MemonIndividual Change, CollectiveAction Both are vital Many powerful resources already in place http://walimemon.com
  • 55. Impossible to know if individual 55 Wali Memonchange and collective changewill be enough, fast enough Status quo achievable with scale up of 500 known technologies 400-500 ppm CO2 recommended target to avoid 400 serious risk of "runaway" warming 380 360 you are here Atmospheric CO2 (ppm) 340 320 300 280 to return to the pre-industrial 260 climate 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 Year http://walimemon.com
  • 56. A Third Lever – Creating TheCapacity to Live Within theClimate System If the global system shifts in time the innovating groups and individuals will be thriving. If the system doesn‘t shift in time, local strength and adaptability will be essential. Creating the new makes it easier for others to follow http://walimemon.com 56
  • 57. 57 Wali MemonStepping Into the World WeWant Creates It # of bike paths # of bikers http://walimemon.com
  • 58. 58 Wali MemonStepping Into the World WeWant Creates It cost of solar technology # of solar panels purchased http://walimemon.com
  • 59. 59 Wali MemonStepping Into the World WeWant Creates It # of people eating local food # of farmers producing local food http://walimemon.com
  • 60. From Vision to Shared Vision to Action 60 Wali Memon Envisioning what we want, what we truly want from a place of expandend indentification is the basisShared vision is formed out of our individual vision – taking the time to envision what we want Development of socially shared goals depends on our shared vision of what kind of world we are trying to create Our ability to create workable models also depends on articulating clear, feasible, socially shared goals. Models are validated or disproved based on available information-- distortion of information or misinformation compromises the quality of the models we can build. Implementable policies are based on our models- individual and societal. The quality of the model with which we are working in turn affects the quality of the policies that we can implement. Implementation of policies is where things get done. It is the active, visible phase of achieving a goal and the most discussed phase. Good policies have their roots in a clear vision and well articulated goals. http://walimemon.com
  • 61. 61 Wali MemonSteps of Policy Formulation Vision “individual” High leverage possible at this Shared Vision level, but little time spent Goals Information When Vision Models guides Implementation, can have high Most Policy creation leverage actions time/effortspent at this level Implementation = DO THINGS! http://walimemon.com
  • 62. 62 Wali MemonEnvisioning the world we want  Picture the place you live today, your street your neighborhood, your piece of land.  Now begin imagining it in twenty years, or fifty, in a time when fossil fuel use has been cut in half- worldwide.  Whatdoes your place look like, what are people doing, what does it smell like, feel, like?  What‘sadded compared today and what is missing?  Share in small groups http://walimemon.com
  • 63. 63 Wali MemonClimate Change,the Teacher?Many people say that learn a great deal from painful anddifficult experiences even those that can be very frightening.What can we learn from climate change?I can learn that…I can learn how… http://walimemon.com
  • 64. 64 Wali MemonCreating the New What elements of what you saw in your vision of your world free of fossil fuels could you begin to create today? What would you need? Where will you start? http://walimemon.com
  • 65. 65 Wali Memon OCO Nurtures Two Processes (1) Education Individual # people Change taking action Collective Rules # people Changesperceived urgency for action teaching others Our Climate Ourselves # of citizens understanding climate system http://walimemon.com
  • 66. 66 Wali MemonOCO Nurtures Two Processes(2) Vision Creation# people daring to envision ahealthy society # people building the new awareness of our growing collective capacity to live within the limits of http://walimemon.com the climate system
  • 67. 67 Wali Memon Opportunities for participation in Our Climate Ourselves Host a follow-up meeting  Subscribe to the for this group. electronic OCO news for Make a donation. updates and essays Host an introductory OCO  Share your vision the program at your home. future and the steps you are taking towards it – for Learnto present this our visions of the future Introductory Session. web-page. http://walimemon.com
  • 68. 68 http://walimemon.com