02 Future Analysis 2013

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02 Future Analysis 2013

  1. 1. Strategic Management @ 2013Wai chamornmarn2
  2. 2. Strategic Management @ 2013The first ……… in thailand that make a big change.
  3. 3. Strategic Management @ 2013The first………Then……………….• The oil palm was first introduced to Southeast Asia in 1848, when fourseedlings, originating from West Africa, were planted in the botanicalgardens at Buitenzorg (now Bogor) in Java (Hartley 1988, 21).• http://www.cambridge.org/us/books/kiple/palmoil.htm• While on a trip to the United States in 1952, Masura Ibuka, founder of TokyoTelecommunications Engineering Corporation (nowSony), discovered that AT&T wasabout to make licensing available for the transistor. Ibuka and his partner, physicist AkioMorita, convinced the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) tofinance the $25,000 licensing fee (equivalent to $216,134 today). For several monthsIbuka traveled around the United States borrowing ideas from the American transistormanufacturers. Improving upon the ideas, Tokyo Telecommunications EngineeringCorporation made its first functional transistor radio in 1954.[5] Within five years, TokyoTelecommunications Engineering Corporation grew from seven employees toapproximately five hundred.• Other Japanese companies soon followed their entry into the American market and thegrand total of electronic products exported from Japan in 1958 increased 2.5 times incomparison to 1957.[11]• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_radio
  4. 4. Strategic Management @ 2013•
  5. 5. Strategic Management @ 2013FuturesLong-term notionsof the good societyUnrealized but realisiticpossibilities of problemsolutionsLikely temporaldevelopmentof societal problemsPossible futuresDesirable futuresProbable futures
  6. 6. Strategic Management @ 2013•••••Technology forecasting•Scenario Planning–Decision AnalysisGame theoryAnalogies and Patternrecognition
  7. 7. Strategic Management @ 2013The Cynefin framework
  8. 8. Strategic Management @ 2013Thinking the FutureDebating the Future Shaping the FutureParticipatoryAction orientedOpenNot only analysing or contemplating futuredevelopments but supporting actors inactively shaping the futurenot predicting a pre-determined future butexploring how the futuremight evolve in differentways depending on theactions of various playersand decisions taken „today‟.•involving the keystakeholders•Results aredisseminated anddiscussed among awide audienceFORESIGHTA process of systematic collective reasoning about the futureProfessor Ron JohnstonExecutive DirectorAustralian Centre forInnovationUniversity of Sydney
  9. 9. Strategic Management @ 2013• Type of Scenario
  10. 10. ThomasPowell
OxfordUniversity
  11. 11. Strategic Management @ 2013Scenarios versus Forecasts
  12. 12. Strategic Management @ 2013Types of Scenarios• Deductive ←→ Inductive• organizing the big uncertainties or questions about the future into a logical form vs. taking intoconsideration all data and ideas about the future,then insights about the future are induced from thisstudy of the data.• Exploratory ←→ Anticipatory• Present → Future. The current situation and then describe the steps that lead to a future situation vs.Present ← Future Start with a prescribed vision of the future (either optimistic, pessimistic, or neutral)and then work backwards in time to visualize how this future could emerge.• Qualitative ←→ Quantitative• visual symbols: diagrams; pictures or words: written phrases, outlines; or storylines vs.Numerical information ,Commonly computed with models•
  13. 13. Strategic Management @ 2013Scenario Planning – TypesScenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3InductiveScenario 1 Scenario 2Scenario 3 Scenario 4DeductiveOfficialFutureAlternative scenarioIncrementalVisionNormativeAdapted from Ged Davis, Scenarios as a tool for the 21st century, Shell International, 2002Ged Davis is ManagingDirector, Head of the Centrefor Strategic Insight at theWorld Economic Forum.
  14. 14. Strategic Management @ 2013Starting from the futureStarting from the presentExploratory and Normative Scenario AnalysisWhat next?What if?Where to?How to?
  15. 15. Strategic Management @ 2013•
  16. 16. Strategic Management @ 2013History of Scenarios
  17. 17. Strategic Management @ 2013ScenariosCaribbeanSource: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2006)
  18. 18. Shell Scenarios
  19. 19. Strategic Management @ 2013Eurelectric Power choices –scenario 2050Total consumption of energy will decrease...Paradigm shift to efficient electric technologiesMore electricity = less energy
  20. 20. Strategic Management @ 2013• Steps in ScenarioDevelopment
  21. 21. Opportunities and threats can be found by analysing thechanges in the operating environmentTrend analysisOne or several dominating developmentprocess analysedScenario analysisSeveral alternatives described and analysedWeak signal analysisUncertain but potentially high impact
  22. 22. Strategic Management @ 2013• Exercise: AEC 2025
  23. 23. Strategic Management @ 2013AEC Logic
  24. 24. Strategic Management @ 2013IF ………Then…………
  25. 25. Strategic Management @ 2013If………….. Then………………
  26. 26. Strategic Management @ 2013•• Scenario building workshop
  27. 27. Strategic Management @ 2013• “Genius” forecasts• Expert Groups, deskwork,• Modelling tools like simulation, cross-impact; gaming• Surveys, clustering articulated viewpoints• Workshops
  28. 28. Strategic Management @ 2013- ,OutwardDRIVERS• Social• Technological• Economic• Environmental• Political• ValuesABC“drivers and shapers”/ group trends and eventsdrivers -/brainstorming--drivers
  29. 29. Strategic Management @ 2013• Exercise: Thailand 2025
  30. 30. Strategic Management @ 2013If…………….. Then…………….
  31. 31. Strategic Management @ 2013Climate CrisisDrought and saline resistant cropsEfficient irrigation techniquesClimate proof infrastructureEarly warning systemsAdaptationResources Constraints andClimate CrisisClimate SecurityLikely Impacts
  32. 32. Strategic Management @ 2013Climate Change
  33. 33. Strategic Management @ 2013Thai Agriculture Scenarios: Biotechnology, GM, Organic AndExtensification
  34. 34. Strategic Management @ 2013•Exercise•
  35. 35. ::- value creationclustering R&D. R&D Motor Way: - EWEC ICD/ CY- - Clustering:
  36. 36.  -
  37. 37. Strategic Management @ 2013
  38. 38. Strategic Management @ 2013•• Elements of a Scenario
  39. 39. Strategic Management @ 2013Write ScenariosScenario –/multidimentional overviewVignette -/Focuses on one dimension, others contextual.Profile -/skeletal description of future in terms of key parameters.
  40. 40. Strategic Management @ 2013Elements of a Scenario• 1. A base year (or period)• 2. A time horizon (or period) and time steps.• 3. A geographic coverage – city, country, global?• 4. A description of step-wise changes• 5. Driving forces or uncertainties• 6. Storyline.
  41. 41. Strategic Management @ 2013Effective Scenarioskneejerk-Robust (not Accurate as such)Novel/ StimulatingProvocative/ Challenging/Useful
  42. 42. Strategic Management @ 2013TransportationPowerInformation & CommunicationsHealthLightingServicesAutomation & ControlDietmar TheisSiemens AGCorporate TechnologyMünchendietmar.theis@siemens.comPictures of the Futureand Horizons2020 :Developing scenarios forfuture technologies andfood for thoughtabout future lifeworlds
  43. 43. "Pictures of the Future" and "Horizons 2020" complement eachother in providing holistic scenarios about the long-term future5 . . .10 years Time Horizon 10 . . . 20 yearsCustomers SocietyMarkets Focus IndividualTechnologies ValuesTechnology Planning CommunicationBusiness Opportunities Benefit DiscussionCommunication ImpulsesCorporate TechnologyDriverCorporate CommunicationsTransportationPowerHealthServicesInformation &CommunicationsAutomation &Control
  44. 44. Future designs• VISION (desired future; „mission“ a means to approach the vision)• TREND (forseeable developments, extrapolated from present situation;expert knowledge)• FORECAST / PROGNOSIS (quantifies time and degree of use of trends;expert knowledge)• SCENARIOS (comprehensive approach, covers multiple trends and theirmutual interaction, allows for the emergence of several possible futures– STRATEGIC SCENARIOS (operational preparation for the future, quantifiedoptions)– COMMUNICATION SCENARIOS (intended for public discussion, qualitativeaspects of alternative future designs)
  45. 45. Picture of the FutureInformation and Communication
  46. 46. © Siemens AG, CT SMPicture of the FutureTransportation
  47. 47. Smart Traffic Management Increases Infrastructure Efficiency© Siemens AG, CT SMSpecific Transportation Trends: Cost Reduction in Rail Operation Efficiency in Road Utilization Gate-free, Electronic Fare Managementsystems Automatic Passenger Counting solutions Automated, demand-oriented systemsfor train operation Advanced highway maintenanceplanning systems Infrastructural systems to supportcollision avoidance Smart, cost-efficient systemsfor traffic detection Advanced planning and controlsystems for Traffic Management
  48. 48. Strategic Management @ 2013CORPORATETECHNOLOGHealthPatient-Centric HealthcareIntegrated ServicesTheranosticsBio-, Nano-,Info- Technologies© Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved.
  49. 49. Strategic Management @ 2013

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