Strategic Management @ 2013The first ……… in thailand that make a big change.
Strategic Management @ 2013The first………Then……………….• The oil palm was first introduced to Southeast Asia in 1848, when fourseedlings, originating from West Africa, were planted in the botanicalgardens at Buitenzorg (now Bogor) in Java (Hartley 1988, 21).• http://www.cambridge.org/us/books/kiple/palmoil.htm• While on a trip to the United States in 1952, Masura Ibuka, founder of TokyoTelecommunications Engineering Corporation (nowSony), discovered that AT&T wasabout to make licensing available for the transistor. Ibuka and his partner, physicist AkioMorita, convinced the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) tofinance the $25,000 licensing fee (equivalent to $216,134 today). For several monthsIbuka traveled around the United States borrowing ideas from the American transistormanufacturers. Improving upon the ideas, Tokyo Telecommunications EngineeringCorporation made its first functional transistor radio in 1954. Within five years, TokyoTelecommunications Engineering Corporation grew from seven employees toapproximately five hundred.• Other Japanese companies soon followed their entry into the American market and thegrand total of electronic products exported from Japan in 1958 increased 2.5 times incomparison to 1957.• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_radio
Strategic Management @ 2013FuturesLong-term notionsof the good societyUnrealized but realisiticpossibilities of problemsolutionsLikely temporaldevelopmentof societal problemsPossible futuresDesirable futuresProbable futures
Strategic Management @ 2013Thinking the FutureDebating the Future Shaping the FutureParticipatoryAction orientedOpenNot only analysing or contemplating futuredevelopments but supporting actors inactively shaping the futurenot predicting a pre-determined future butexploring how the futuremight evolve in differentways depending on theactions of various playersand decisions taken „today‟.•involving the keystakeholders•Results aredisseminated anddiscussed among awide audienceFORESIGHTA process of systematic collective reasoning about the futureProfessor Ron JohnstonExecutive DirectorAustralian Centre forInnovationUniversity of Sydney
Strategic Management @ 2013Scenarios versus Forecasts
Strategic Management @ 2013Types of Scenarios• Deductive ←→ Inductive• organizing the big uncertainties or questions about the future into a logical form vs. taking intoconsideration all data and ideas about the future,then insights about the future are induced from thisstudy of the data.• Exploratory ←→ Anticipatory• Present → Future. The current situation and then describe the steps that lead to a future situation vs.Present ← Future Start with a prescribed vision of the future (either optimistic, pessimistic, or neutral)and then work backwards in time to visualize how this future could emerge.• Qualitative ←→ Quantitative• visual symbols: diagrams; pictures or words: written phrases, outlines; or storylines vs.Numerical information ,Commonly computed with models•
Strategic Management @ 2013Scenario Planning – TypesScenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3InductiveScenario 1 Scenario 2Scenario 3 Scenario 4DeductiveOfficialFutureAlternative scenarioIncrementalVisionNormativeAdapted from Ged Davis, Scenarios as a tool for the 21st century, Shell International, 2002Ged Davis is ManagingDirector, Head of the Centrefor Strategic Insight at theWorld Economic Forum.
Strategic Management @ 2013Starting from the futureStarting from the presentExploratory and Normative Scenario AnalysisWhat next?What if?Where to?How to?
Strategic Management @ 2013Eurelectric Power choices –scenario 2050Total consumption of energy will decrease...Paradigm shift to efficient electric technologiesMore electricity = less energy
Strategic Management @ 2013• Steps in ScenarioDevelopment
Opportunities and threats can be found by analysing thechanges in the operating environmentTrend analysisOne or several dominating developmentprocess analysedScenario analysisSeveral alternatives described and analysedWeak signal analysisUncertain but potentially high impact
Strategic Management @ 2013•• Elements of a Scenario
Strategic Management @ 2013Write ScenariosScenario –/multidimentional overviewVignette -/Focuses on one dimension, others contextual.Profile -/skeletal description of future in terms of key parameters.
Strategic Management @ 2013Elements of a Scenario• 1. A base year (or period)• 2. A time horizon (or period) and time steps.• 3. A geographic coverage – city, country, global?• 4. A description of step-wise changes• 5. Driving forces or uncertainties• 6. Storyline.
Strategic Management @ 2013Effective Scenarioskneejerk-Robust (not Accurate as such)Novel/ StimulatingProvocative/ Challenging/Useful
Strategic Management @ 2013TransportationPowerInformation & CommunicationsHealthLightingServicesAutomation & ControlDietmar TheisSiemens AGCorporate TechnologyMünchendietmar.firstname.lastname@example.orgPictures of the Futureand Horizons2020 :Developing scenarios forfuture technologies andfood for thoughtabout future lifeworlds
"Pictures of the Future" and "Horizons 2020" complement eachother in providing holistic scenarios about the long-term future5 . . .10 years Time Horizon 10 . . . 20 yearsCustomers SocietyMarkets Focus IndividualTechnologies ValuesTechnology Planning CommunicationBusiness Opportunities Benefit DiscussionCommunication ImpulsesCorporate TechnologyDriverCorporate CommunicationsTransportationPowerHealthServicesInformation &CommunicationsAutomation &Control
Future designs• VISION (desired future; „mission“ a means to approach the vision)• TREND (forseeable developments, extrapolated from present situation;expert knowledge)• FORECAST / PROGNOSIS (quantifies time and degree of use of trends;expert knowledge)• SCENARIOS (comprehensive approach, covers multiple trends and theirmutual interaction, allows for the emergence of several possible futures– STRATEGIC SCENARIOS (operational preparation for the future, quantifiedoptions)– COMMUNICATION SCENARIOS (intended for public discussion, qualitativeaspects of alternative future designs)
Picture of the FutureInformation and Communication