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Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan
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Nexus Between Aid and Security: The Case of Pakistan

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  • This slide explains the challenge for us in designing the simulations. Between 2007 and 2009 the exports have infact shown an increase. Exports show some decline in 2009 due to doemestic supply side constraints.
  • Welfare Gain associated with Dutch Disease
  • We have already seen the success of AKRSP in pk that nourishes microfinance through community led programmes.
  • We have already seen the success of AKRSP in pk that nourishes microfinance through community led programmes.
  • We have already seen the success of AKRSP in pk that nourishes microfinance through community led programmes.
  • We have already seen the success of AKRSP in pk that nourishes microfinance through community led programmes.
  • Transcript

    • 1. 1
      Nexus Between Aid & Security: The Case of Pakistan
      Vaqar Ahmed (vahmed@gmail.com)
      Muhammad Abdul Wahab(wahab.907@gmail.com)
      Please do not quote without authors’ permission
      International conference on “Policy Priorities For Foreign Aid Reform In South Asia”
      29-30 July 2010 at lvy Room, cinnamon Grand Colombo
      Organized by institute of Policy studies of Sri Lanka and Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Columbo
      1
      1
    • 2. Outline
      Linking Macroeconomy with Aid
      Macro – Micro Impact of Foreign Resources
      Role of Aid in Pakistan Economy
      Foreign Assistance and Regional Security
      Aid Effectiveness in Pakistan
      Priorities for Aid Policy Reform in Pakistan
      2
    • 3. Linking Macroeconomy with Aid
      3
    • 4. Trends 2005 – 2010 ($ Billion)
      4
    • 5. Macro – Micro Impact of Foreign Resources
      5
    • 6. Results from CGE Model
      A 50 percent increase in foreign savings:
      Increase in real private consumption by 2.8 percent
      Given the greater amount of foreign exchange available, imports increase by 3.7 percent.
      However exports decline by 6.5 percent.
      Household welfare increases for all segments [highest for rural workers]
      6
      Welfare Gain Vs. Dutch Disease
    • 7. Role of Aid in Pakistan Economy
      7
    • 8. Debt Stock Outstanding (US $ billion)
      8
    • 9. External Debt and Servicing
      9
    • 10. Revenue Mobilization
      10
    • 11. Plan –wise Disbursements ($ Million)
      11
    • 12. Harsher Terms
      12
    • 13. Top 5 Sectoral Disbursements 2000 and 2009
      13
    • 14. Net ODA received per capita (current US$)
      14
    • 15. Net ODA received (% of GNI)
      15
    • 16. Foreign Assistance and Regional Security
      16
    • 17. 17
      Three Major War Fronts
    • 18. Net ODA received per capita (Current US$)
      18
      Afghanistan
      Sri Lanka
      Nepal
      Pakistan
    • 19. Net ODA received (% of GNI)
      19
      Afghanistan
      Nepal
      Sri Lanka
      Pakistan
    • 20. Aid Towards Afghan Relief
      20
    • 21. Damage to Pakistan Economy
      21
    • 22. Damage to Pakistan Economy
      This is loss to physical assets and business only.
      This loss does not account for:
      Loss of human life
      Loss of institutions
      Loss of investors’ base
      Loss of skill base
      22
    • 23. Aid, Loss of Life and Damage to the Economy
      23
    • 24. Aid inflows during Various Political Regimes
      24
    • 25. Aid Effectiveness in Pakistan
      25
    • 26. Paris Declaration Monitoring Survey
      Around 88 percent of total ODA disbursed by the government sector was recorded in the government system. This was due to increase in budget support in 2005 and government’s action to align its budget with priorities defined in Medium Term Development Framework.
      Out of the total ODA disbursed in 2005, 68% was disbursed by using the national procurement systems. In total, 7 out of 16 donors used the national procurement systems.
      26
    • 27. Paris Declaration Monitoring Survey
      However, only three of them (WB, ADB, USAID) account together for 97% of the total ODA disbursed by using national procurement systems. The vast majority of donors disbursed none or very small amounts of ODA by using the national procurement systems.
      Out of the total ODA provided for technical cooperation in 2005, only 28% was disbursed in support of coordinated capacity development programmes.
      27
    • 28. Paris Declaration Monitoring Survey
      The proportion of joint missions and joint analytical work is relatively low at 12% and 41% respectively. Coordinated missions and analytical work are still only conducted on an ad-hoc basis, but there are plans in place to achieve more systematic coordination.
      28
    • 29. Priorities for Aid Policy Reform in Pakistan
      29
    • 30. Development Planning Process in Pakistan
      30
      • Preparation of approach paper
      • 31. Formulation of technical working groups in all sectors
      • 32. Preparation of sectoral chapters by working groups and their presentation before Planning Commission
      Consultations with all Federal Ministries for input
      Consultations with all Provincial Govts. for input
      EconomicPlan
      Sent to all Federal Ministries and Dev. Partners for comments and input
      Sent to all Provincial Govts.
      for comments and input
      Finance Division
      (Resource Availability)
      Economic Affairs Division
      (Foreign aid availability)
      Finalization of draft plan by Planning Commission and its presentation before President/Prime Minister
      Submission to National Economic Council (NEC)
      Circulation of approved plan to all Provincial Govts. And Federal Ministries for implementation
      Transformation of plan into viable projects/programmes
      Requirements, programming and negotiations for external economic assistance
      External debt management
    • 33. Planning for Growth
      31
    • 34. Planning for Growth
      32
    • 35. Planning for Growth
      33
    • 36. Planning for (Inclusive) Growth
      34
    • 37. Planning for (Inclusive) Growth
      35
    • 38. Planning for (Inclusive) Growth
      36
      Aid Agenda that focuses on Market based solutions
    • 39. Policy Priorities for Aid Reform
      Draft Foreign Assistance Policy Framework
      • Friends of Democratic Pakistan (FoDP)
      Consensus Building  Security Plan  Governance Plan  Socio-economic Plan
      Kerry – Lugar Bill
      Pakistan as a Global Player
      37
    • 40. Conclusion
      The empirical literature on the impact of aid on economic development in Pakistan is inconclusive
      There are more concerning effects at that micro level where society has started to perceive aid as a compensation (and not assistance) for Pakistan’s involvement in war
      Pakistan urgently needs a new Aid Policy for managing increased aid flows
      Finally as the reconstruction work takes off in the war-torn areas, there will be increased need for regular/coordinated analytical work by both government and donors
      38
    • 41. Many Thanks
      Dr. Vaqar Ahmed
      Planning Commission of Pakistan
      vahmed@gmail.com
      39

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