Learning and Inferring Transportation Routines
Outline <ul><li>Introduction </li></ul><ul><li>Hierarchical Activity Model </li></ul><ul><li>Inference, Learning, and Erro...
Introduction <ul><li>A hierarchical Markov model that can learn and infer a user’s daily movements through the community <...
Hierarchical Activity Model <ul><li>Locations and transportation modes </li></ul><ul><li>Trip segments </li></ul><ul><li>G...
 
Inference <ul><li>GPS-based tracking on street maps </li></ul><ul><li>Goal and trip segment estimation </li></ul>
<ul><li>The factorization (1) separates the state space of our estimation problem into its continuous and discrete parts <...
 
Learning <ul><li>Finding goals </li></ul><ul><li>Finding mode transfer locations </li></ul><ul><li>Estimating transition m...
Finding mode transfer locations
Detection of User Errors <ul><li>The hierarchical tracker has “expensive” particles, each containing much state informatio...
Experimental Results   <ul><li>Activity model learning </li></ul><ul><li>Detection of user errors </li></ul>
<ul><li>(a) Probability of the true goal (work place) during an episode from home to work, estimated using the flat and th...
 
 
 
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1203

  1. 1. Learning and Inferring Transportation Routines
  2. 2. Outline <ul><li>Introduction </li></ul><ul><li>Hierarchical Activity Model </li></ul><ul><li>Inference, Learning, and Error Detection </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Inference </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Learning </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Detection of User Errors </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Experimental Results </li></ul>
  3. 3. Introduction <ul><li>A hierarchical Markov model that can learn and infer a user’s daily movements through the community </li></ul><ul><li>The model allows : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Infer the locations of usual goals, such as home or workplace </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Infer a user’s mode of transportation, such as foot, car, or bus, and predict when and where she will change modes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Predict her future movements, both in the short term and in terms of distant goals </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Infer when a user has broken his ordinary routine in a way that may indicate that he has made an error, such as failing to get off his bus at his usual stop on the way home </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Robustly track and predict locations even in the presence of total loss of GPS signals and other sources of noise </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. Hierarchical Activity Model <ul><li>Locations and transportation modes </li></ul><ul><li>Trip segments </li></ul><ul><li>Goals </li></ul>
  5. 6. Inference <ul><li>GPS-based tracking on street maps </li></ul><ul><li>Goal and trip segment estimation </li></ul>
  6. 7. <ul><li>The factorization (1) separates the state space of our estimation problem into its continuous and discrete parts </li></ul><ul><li>The left term on the right hand side of (1) , (2) follows by applying Bayes rule and the independences in our estimation problem </li></ul>
  7. 9. Learning <ul><li>Finding goals </li></ul><ul><li>Finding mode transfer locations </li></ul><ul><li>Estimating transition matrices </li></ul>
  8. 10. Finding mode transfer locations
  9. 11. Detection of User Errors <ul><li>The hierarchical tracker has “expensive” particles, each containing much state information, but requires few particles for accurate tracking </li></ul><ul><li>The flat, untrained tracker needs more particles to maintain tracking, but each particle is cheaper to compute </li></ul>
  10. 12. Experimental Results <ul><li>Activity model learning </li></ul><ul><li>Detection of user errors </li></ul>
  11. 13. <ul><li>(a) Probability of the true goal (work place) during an episode from home to work, estimated using the flat and the hierarchical model </li></ul><ul><li>(b,c) Probability of an activity being normal or abnormal, estimated by the concurrent trackers </li></ul><ul><li>(b) Normal activity: driving from home to work </li></ul><ul><li>(c) Abnormal activity: missing to get off the bus at time t2 </li></ul>
  12. 17. Thank you

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