Victorvan Rij Sesti EuropeParliament7april2011

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prentation held for the STOA forum of the Europese parliament on the importnace of wide early warning and RDI intelligence for Europe

prentation held for the STOA forum of the Europese parliament on the importnace of wide early warning and RDI intelligence for Europe

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  • 1. Scanning for emerging science and technology issues Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities [Experiences with searching for emerging S&T issues , tools and approaches Presentation for STOA Victor van Rij 7-april-2011 The SESTI project is funded under the European FP7 and researches the application of weak signals and emerging issues for improving the anticipatory intelligence of the European Commission and the EU Member States on future developments and issues
  • 2. Scanning for emerging science and technology issues Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities 2 Objectives of the SESTI project• Researching the added value of early warning signal scanning to identify emerging issues• Assessing the pro’s and con’s of several scanning methods• Identifying ways to connect scanning to the policy communitySESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
  • 3. Scanning for emerging science and technology issues Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities 3 Media Voters Advisory boardsPlanning agencies Info and IssuesLobbyists Decisions for the Future SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
  • 4. Scanning for emerging science and technology issues Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities 4 Why should we look for emerging issues? • Much info and many issues are biased by their bringers, even scientific advice is biased by disciplinary thinking • Media got a good nose for bad news and incidents, they scan the world for this (allthough there are some good exceptions) • Most issues coming to the policy makers have a short term character • While good governing needs the capacity to foresee and to anticipate • Luckily politicians and policymakers have a good intuition for what the future may bring, but the knowledge they can use for this , is limited to their sourcesSESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
  • 5. Scanning for emerging science and technology issues Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities 5 SESTI project • Are there ways to improof the information basis to identify the most important future issues that need policy attention today? • Are there early warning (weak) signals that can be used to identify them? • If so where and how to find them and how to use them to feed them into the policymakers agenda?SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
  • 6. Scanning for emerging science and technology issues Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities 6 Definition and criteria emerging issue Emerging issues are storylines (Future Narratives) with: • High impact (on society, economy, ecology and the domain) • Plausible storyline (including factual basis –reliable sources ) • Novelty (is the issue described really new for the policy makers) • Emotional aspects and critical aspects (does the issue appeal or concern emotional and or ethical legal aspects) • Interests at stake (commonalities and or conflicts) • Changeability (Can the story or its impact be altered by human action) • Policy relevance (does the issue relate to present day decision making and action and on different levels)SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
  • 7. Scanning for emerging science and technology issues Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities 7 Sources and tools for scanning Non participative / (digital) written sources • Systematic manual scanning (internet –search engines) • Literature study • Text mining Participative / stakeholders & experts • Survey • Wiki • Blogs/linked In /and others like Facebook • Twitter • Workhops etcSESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
  • 8. Scanning for emerging science and technology issues Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities 8 Systematic Internet scanning • Internet Search on internet using search engines provided by : google / bing • Google selects all pages (texts & vids) with the “search string” • sorts the pages that are most connected/central Needed • Qualified scanners (fast interpretation) • Frame of reference (coordinates/for which domain does the scan take place/criteria) • Intelligent questions • WorkhopsSESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
  • 9. Scanning for emerging science and technology issues Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities 9 SESTI-manual scanningSESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
  • 10. The principles of Issue / Wild card Centered Scanning = Primary signal (full or partial future issue description) = Affirmative Secondary signal = Not affirmative Secondary signal = Expected affirmative signal not showing up = Analysis of Primary signal (leading to indication of Secondary signals to watch for) B Emerging issue BPast Present Future
  • 11. The principles of Issue / Wild card Centered Scanning = Primary signal (full or partial future issue or wild card description) = Affirmative Secondary signal = Not affirmative Secondary signal = Expected affirmative signal not showing up = Analysis of Primary signal (leading to indication of Secondary signals to watch for) B Emerging issue B WC CPast Present Future
  • 12. Scanning for emerging science and technology issues Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities 1 2 Primary signal & secondary signalsSESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
  • 13. ISSUE CENTERED SCANNING A Emerging issue A WC B Emerging issue B C Hype issue CPast Present Future
  • 14. Scanning for emerging science and technology issues Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities 1 4 Wiki/Blog/linked In/Twitter • An invitation is send to experts- stakeholders : Q what they see as new emerging issues /early warning signals? Needed: • own website (SESTI-wiki – blog ) or account on existing platform (Linked In , Face book, Twitter) • Wide variety, qualified willing contribuants • Open /structured set up • Analists to interprete data (text mining)SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
  • 15. Scanning for emerging science and technology issues Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities 1 5 SESTI Wiki –for emerging issuesSESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
  • 16. Scanning for emerging science and technology issues Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities 1 6 SESTI Blog /Linked In Blog/TwitterSESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
  • 17. Scanning for emerging science and technology issues Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities 1 7 Experience scanning methodsTool Reach Observation Coherence Quality Novelty Dialogue /Source time degree of the check signalManual Very Anytime Large Available high NAscanning large and small wwwLiterature Large Anytime Large Available medium NAstudy wwlSurvey Specific One time Small Low, medium NA limited except expertsText Large Runs with Small ?? ? NAmining preparation ComplexWiki Specific Dependent Large in theory Available Medium Some limited on Small in to high participants practiceBlog Specific Dependent Medium to large Dialogue Medium OpenLinked In limited on to highetc participantsTwitter Specific All the time Small NA high Twitter limited continuousSESTI Presentation for STOA 7 April 2011
  • 18. Scanning for emerging science and technology issues Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities 1 8 Partners • TNO: Main coordinator • MinOCW: Scanning (v.vanrij@minocw.nl) • AIT: Processing of information • UniMan: In depth analysis • IPTS: Policy workshops • MCST: Knowledge disseminationSESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
  • 19. Scanning for emerging science and technology issues Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities Set up of the SESTI projectFocus of this presentation Further information: www.sesti.info
  • 20. Scanning for emerging science and technology issues Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities Emerging issue A Emerging issue C WC Emerging issue F Hype issue D EXPLORATORY SCANNINGPast Present Future