Bust2Boom: Are you ready for the recovery? 7 th May 2009 (A MDeC & TeAM joint Forum)
Panelists Mr. Chris Chan, CEO, The Media Shoppe Bhd (TMS) Mr. Michael Lai, CEO, Packet One Networks (M) Sdn Bhd Mr. Low Huoi Seong, CEO, Vision New Media Sdn Bhd Mr. Zubir Ansori Yahaya, CEO, Malaysia Debt Ventures Bhd Mr. Saifol Bahri Shamlan, VP, Multimedia Development Corp (MDeC) Moderator Dr. V. Sivapalan
<ul><li>Are world economies on the mend? </li></ul><ul><li>Will we see a recovery soon or will this be a long drawn recession or prolonged slowdown? </li></ul><ul><li>What statistical evidence is there that to support the thesis that a recovery is around the corner? </li></ul><ul><li>The following slides provide some evidence. </li></ul><ul><li>However, you have to draw your own conclusions. </li></ul><ul><li>My comments are in red font. </li></ul><ul><li>Dr.V.Sivapalan </li></ul>
USA - Confidence in the economy is growing Siva: Confidence is the key to the return of normalcy. The graphs show that consumer confidence is growing in the USA. More people think the economy is getting better.
Consumers are starting to spend on homes, general shopping & gifts.
US Unemployment Rate still going up Unemployment has currently hit 8.9% (as at 8 th May 2009). But the rate of layoffs is slowing.
Non-farm payroll is the normal indicator used to measure job losses. As can be seen, the current recession is not the worst, far from it. It may get worse, but it will probably not be as bad as 1948, 1957 or maybe even 1981.
US job losses in ten post-war recessions & time to recovery Most recoveries have been almost ‘V’ shaped, except for 1990 & 2001. Will this mean the current recovery will be strong & fast? Time will tell.
Latest US Jobs Report <ul><li>Latest News from CNNMoney.com as at 6 th May 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>P rivate-sector employment decreased by 491,000 in April, a 31% improvement from the revised 708,000 drop in March. </li></ul><ul><li>Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected a loss of 643,000 jobs last month. </li></ul><ul><li>J ob cut announcements by U.S. employers total l ed 132,590 in April, an improvement of 12% from March's 150,411 cuts. It was the lowest total since last October . </li></ul><ul><li>The unemployment rate is predicted to rise to 8.9% from 8.5% </li></ul>
US Durable Goods & Home Sales Orders for durable goods & home sales are finally turning around. That is always a good sign of consumer confidence that will lead to industrial & economic recovery.
China Manufacturing New Orders & Export Orders China has been the recovery story of the year. As probably the second leading economy in the world after USA, a strong recovery in China will help the rest of the world & even the USA. It certainly helps commodity dependent economies like Australia & Africa.
China Total Loans Growth Loans have been growing strongly, perhaps too strongly. Chinese authorities have started to moderate loans growth fearing a bubble may be forming. This is good for the economy.
China – Shipping Rates Baltic Dry Index vs Export Orders As Chinese exports rise, shipping rates are also rising, another indicator of a turnaround in the world economy. We still need to see a more prolonged rise to be certain.
Are commodity markets bottoming? China’s manufacturing is growing strongly & commodities are rising off their bottom. US manufacturing is showing positive signs but EU is still slow. So what else is new? The GSCI Spot Index tracks the price levels of principal physical commodities that are available in active, liquid futures markets. The commodities selected for this hypothetical portfolio are intended to be broadly representative of the entire spectrum of commodities available for investment.
GDP Growth Rates The IMF is predicting positive growth in 2010.
GDP Growth Rates – Alternative Scenarios Based on PwC’s alternative scenarios, unless there is a prolonged recession we will see positive GDP growth worldwide in 2010.
GDP Growth Rates – Asian Region Source: Asian Dev Bank Self-explanatory. All economies in East and South Asia expected to see positive GDP in 2010, including Singapore one of the worst affected economies in 2009.
Stock Markets Is the stock market bull in the toilet?
Worst S&P Bear Markets last between 20 to 34 months. Its been 18 months already for the current bear market. Is that why markets are rallying? Does it know something we don’t?
Market Indices – BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India & China) vs S&P The BRIC countries’ stock markets are showing signs of bottoming. As as 7 th May, most are having mini bull runs.
Bursa Malaysia Rally from 840 to 1023 (21.7%) Bursa Malaysia, the Malaysian Exchange is having a nice bull run as well with a 21% gain over 45 days.
Conclusion The Panel Discussion that followed concluded that we will definitely see a recovery in 2010 if not late 2009. So companies should start preparing for the recovery.
Conclusion <ul><li>Some concrete measures were recommended by the Panelists: </li></ul><ul><li>Get yourself benchmarked. A slowdown is a good time to get yourself benchmarked and to prove to customers that you have high standards in place. For example software companies can get themselves benchmarked to CMMI standards. </li></ul><ul><li>Do more R&D. When business is good, you will be busy serving clients but a slowdown is a good time to analyze your business and improve what you have to offer by spending the time on R&D. </li></ul><ul><li>Take advantage of the many grants on offer, not just R&D grants but also marketing grants. They can help you build up the business for the coming recovery </li></ul>
Conclusion <ul><li>Build more partnerships, locally, regionally and globally. When times are slow everyone will be more willing to look at new partnerships so this is a good time to do this. </li></ul><ul><li>Build credibility and a good track record, both for the business and personally. </li></ul><ul><li>Spend time exploring the needs of your customers and fulfilling those needs. </li></ul><ul><li>Broadband and convergence is a powerful medium that will disrupt the way business is done globally. It is no longer only about the Internet but convergence will happen with other devices and the most powerful of these will be mobile. Study how this will affect your business and your customers and use it to build new disruptive businesses. </li></ul>
Contact Dr.V.Sivapalan Email: firstname.lastname@example.org Visit my Blog: www.docsiva.com Follow my Twitter: http://twitter.com/docsiva