IM, Avatars and virtual worlds.

Avatars, IM and Communities How Important will Avatars Become in the Role of IM and Communities? Vincent Sider BT – November 2007 Join us they said…

Breaking News – 27/11 Philippine PRESIDENT Gloria Arroyo is now literally “in the game.” Arroyo activated her virtual self called an “avatar” in the Second Life online game and community as part of the launch of the Philippine National Innovation Strategy in the National Innovation Summit in Makati City. Take-home: Avatars are being discussed beyond the Telco industry

Agenda

In consumer messaging, is the role of the avatar set to increase and be the channel through which all IM is communicated?

What are likely future evolutions?

Which communities are active in this area and how do they differentiate themselves?

A significant portion of the senior execs ( including my boss ) in the Telecom Industry are highly skeptical of avatarization in general, and are convinced that video -- as in video-conferencing, vlogging, video on i-Phones, etc. -- to be more important and just better. Avatarization ?

Some people think that avatars will be ubiquitous , but the threshold for mass adoption may be very high. Avatarization ?

Some think avatars won’t make sense until we can all talk to our computers verbally Avatarization ?

Some think that unless avatars makes solving our problems faster or easier people won’t use them Avatarization ?

Avatars are the cheapest and strongest emotional link between a service and a user. What do I think ?

And emotional intensity has a direct correlation with

How much attention a user is willing to spend on any given product/service (Quantity)

The Quality of the interaction the user is likely to have with this service.

Emotional Link

What is at stake ? Attention… Users are saturated with more content they could possibly consume in a lifetime

Their attention is the most valuable currency What is at stake ? Attention…

What is at stake ? Attention… People spending time in VW are extremely attached to their avatars with careful attention given how they represent themselves

So the question is not … In consumer messaging, is the role of the avatar set to increase and be the channel through which all IM is communicated? But rather… If avatars create a strong emotional link, are they going to become a proxy for user’s identities? YES NO YES NO

We need to capture the trends that will confirm or disconfirm the fact that avatars are going to become a proxy for a user’s identities ( personas). The trends

Shift from standalone avatars applications to avatars in social network and blogs Trend 1

Trend 1 : Standalone Avatars expands Unknown. Start-up. Mainly for customer support avatars. Unknown. Images and videos. None. Technically possible. Unknown. Start-up, with several major customers. Skype plug-in. Yes – component for integration with other apps. Yes – for MMS messages and full client for Symbian. Difficult as uses custom, head-only format. Technically possible. Technology licensing (e.g. mobile content platforms) Part of larger DA group. WeeWorld.com, Skype, Instant Messaging plugins Yes – character generation and animation SDK Yes – for video/images and Java application. None. Technically possible. Unknown. Part of larger company (Comverse) Skype web portal (appears as caller ID) Unknown. Yes, ringback tones on some phones, video/images. None. Technically possible. Negotiable. Start-up Skype client, plug-ins for MSN, Yahoo, AOL, Google Talk Unknown. Video playback only, Difficult as uses custom format. Technically possible. Technology licensing. Part of larger Spirit group which provides VOIP solutions. Skype client No. Video playback only. Difficult as uses custom format. Technically possible. Per user license fee / negotiable Part of larger company. Under Discussion Yes, although functionality is limited. Yes, supports smartphone client. Difficult as uses custom, head-only format. Built-in face recognition. Business model / costs Company size / financial position IM and VoIP extension SDK available Mobile phone extension Importing / Exporting of Avatars Security integration

Example 1 : Gizmoz expands in video

Example 2 : Voki lets its users export their avatars along with voice recordings to social networking sites in that case Scene Caster

More examples

Trend 2 : Toward virtual worlds Avatars moving into virtual worlds The ultimate customer experience? (compared to the web )

It fits who I am

My generation, age group, gender, lifestyle, politics

It’s all ‘about me’

I’m playing, not working at it (life’s a game)

My friends are all here

It’s a regular, normal part of my life

I’m getting service

I’m not just a customer – I ‘co-create’ my product

I’m getting exactly what I want

Famous people are here too

Advertising is not intrusive

Are VW the ultimate customer experience ? What is the ultimate customer experience ?

Virtual Worlds versus Web 2.0 *Facebook is looking at this: people are delivering casual games that allow you to interact and that's a step in the right direction High for immersed customers Very High Social Networking Very high Medium* Game-like quality Very high Very low (widgets?) Virtual products GenX/Y & V Gen X/Y Tied to a generation ??? UNDERPERFORM Customer experience translated to Sales Very high High User-generated content Very rare Very common Advertising Rare->common Common Visits from celebrities Vworlds Web 2.0 Feature

Take-home: 2.5D vworlds aimed at kids and teens will soon have significant audiences relative to web 2.0 Audience ?

WoW (traditional RPG)

~10 million active accounts (inflated?)

average age 26-32

16% female

FaceBook

~30 million active accounts (inflated?)

originally 18-22, now skewing older

genders split evenly

(“Generation X” +some “Y”)

MySpace

~100 million accounts (inflated 2x?)

genders split evenly

(“Generation X” + “Y” + Older Generation” V”)

“ 2.5D” vworlds

8.3 million logins monthly (inflated?)

25% of US kids & teens 3-17 log in monthly (“Generation V”)

75% in just a few years

3D There

1 million accounts

40% female

most between 13-25 (“Generation V”)

Kaneva

~800,000 accounts

3D Second Life

~10 million unique accounts

1 million active accounts

~40% female (declined from 2006 peak near 50%)

most between 25-44 (“Generation X” +some “Y”)

Second Life (Aug 2007)

24 hours/month (counting actual monthly logins)

3.7 hours/month (counting unique accounts)

MySpace (Aug 2007)

~ 30-90 minutes/month per page (depending on how you count)

Wow (Aug 2007)

~80-100 hours/month(!)

Time Spent ? Take-home: vworlds have smaller audiences, but individuals are MUCH more engaged

Trend 3 : Multiple Avatars Accounts in VW

Trend 3 : Multiple Identities Why multiple accounts ? It is all about context ANONYMOUS users view VW as a standalone virtual environment. A place where they leave their real world identity behind and immerse themselves in the dynamics of the world. These people have wide social networks inside VW and engage heavily in the activities and events. > Immersionalists For people using their PUBLIC IDENTITY it’s an extension of their real world social networks and activities and in some cases is business driven. This group includes people from real world companies with VW presence as well as those researching virtual worlds. > Augmentalists

Trend 3 : Anonymous Communications Called InsideOut and positioned underneath the ‘Make the most of Now’ campaign, the device is driven by a branded HUD. The HUD is available from Vodafone island in SL or from the dedicated website. Both parties have to have the HUD in order for the service to work. In terms of pricing, calls and texts from inside SL are free until Nov 30 and then will be in the L$300 per minute range after that. Communication from the real world into SL will be charged at network operator standard rates. This is a great example of a metabrand - a service or product created purely for virtual consumption. Metabrands are a main growth area for real world brands looking for revenue streams from virtual worlds. Vodafone has actually been in Second Life for almost a year now, with their metaphorically themed island. So, it’s good to see that there’s now a good reason to visit the venue. What will be interesting to see is the type of people using the service - I would assume this will be of more use to Augmentalists than Immersionalists. Vodafone in conjunction with Rivers Run Red has opened up the beta version of a cross-world communication device allowing avatars to send and receive texts and voice calls in and out of Second Life. Pause for breath .

Trend 3 : Anonymous Communications

Vivox: Second Life Phone Boxes and Second Phone Client

$14 a year for unlimited use

Voice calls with other Second Life users (if they have client and are registered)

Breakout calls to North American Landlines

IM to other second life users through client (if they have client and are registered)

Star Fruit: Offer free SMS

Anyone can have one on their land

No sign up required

Trend 3 : Anonymous Communications

Features

Next Generation Design

Allows user to call any number globally (GSM, VoIP, PSTN) charged per usage or free (TBD)

Hardwired ClicktoCall to agreed sponsor

Outbound SMS charged per usage or free

Video Advertising Display (BT Vision etc)

Hyperlink to BT Broadband

Deployment

Advertised on BT website with SLURL (Second Life URL that links to locations)

Popular areas of second life (via internal contacts)

Corporate areas (Dells etc) of second life

Your islands ?

Take Home :Today, the value of communicating through the Avatar in Virtual World is to remain anonymous

Summary

People use Avatars to represent their self image

Avatars expands into blog, mobile, social network and virtual worlds

People use Avatars to communicate anonymously

People using Avatars in VW are much more engaged

Virtual Worlds aimed at kids and teens will soon have significant audience compared to web 2.0

Agenda What are likely future evolutions?

Agenda Evolutions for Standalone Avatars

Future Evolutions : Emotions “ They pay attention to the facial expressions and body language and that is how they know what’s going on inside a person’s head-by condensing fact from the vapour of nuance” Snowcrash.

Vivian’s avatar smiles. The background is populated with hearts .

Future Evolutions :Emotions

Jeff’s avatar morphs to indicate that he’s making arrangements for their trip .

Future Evolutions :Emotions

OKI Face Communicator Future Evolutions :Emotions

Software to realize visual communication using 3D character

Visualized emotional expression

Enable you to express difficult emotion only by voice using face expression of 3D character, background image and emotional movement

Privacy Protection

Able to hide your own face while video calling or video chatting

Able to hide your background

Fun and Lovely Contents (3D character, Background image)

Able to replace character and background image according to your feelings on the day

Happy Angry Surprised Sad Visualized Privacy Protection Visualized Emotional Expression Fun & Lovely Contents Face Recognition

Agenda Evolutions for Avatars in Virtual Worlds

“ Always connected ” with your Virtual World Identity

mobile access

(IP TV access)

Future Evolutions: Remote Gaming for VW messaging

First life meets Virtual World but people remain anonymous – Future Evolutions : Presence awareness contact list

Future Evolutions : Interworking Take Home : Social networking sites are all about asynchronous interaction and virtual worlds are about real-time interaction . . . there is no question they will come together Kaneva encourages the use of true identities and personal information to help people interact. Virtual interaction is much more immediate than in real life. "It's much easier to read your profile in the virtual world and see you have the same friends and interests and, all of a sudden, you have those connections." “ Users of MySpace are building representations of themselves - their page is, in a sense, their avatar. Doing that in a 3D space can lead to more interaction between people”

Future Evolutions : Avatar “outer”operability

A virtual character, or avatar, for all the virtual worlds in which people play is the goal of a joint project between IBM and Linden Lab.

The project aims to open up virtual worlds by introducing open tools that work with any online environment.

The project started by IBM and Linden Lab aims to create a universal character creation system so people only have to create a digital double once.

While the character's appearance may change depending on where it is taken, its basic characteristics, such as looks and underlying personal data, would be retained.

Initially the partners will concentrate on creating a system that lets people move between worlds.

Later will come the universal character creation system that lets people create a single avatar to venture into online worlds.

Platforms like Multiverse , Metacrasher , and OpenMetaverse , just to name a few are looking to connect virtual worlds and allow users to transport their avatars and items across multiple platforms. Alternatives

Future Evolutions: VW comms Interconnect IM Presence Voice SMS ideo Remote Gaming HUB Mobile IM SP2 SP1 Fixed IM Meet Me Japanese second life Multiverse

AGENDA Which communities are active in this area and how do they differentiate themselves?

Community Map Avatars Virtual Worlds MMOG + Blabla, City Pixel, Cybertown, Dubit, Faketown, Mokitown, Moove, Taatu, Towechat, Vside, Whyville…

Screenshots

Gaming -> Themed Shopping -> Social Networking Dressup -> Vproducts ->User-created Second Life (Social) Kaneva Most tween & teen 2.5 vworlds, e.g.Stardoll , Habbo, Whyville, Club Penguin Entropia WoW IMVU There Moove ? Take-home: as tween/teen vworld residents grow, they will look for RPGs, or a themed shopping experience in the same of new virtual worlds Second Life (RPGs) Second Life (shopping) How do they differentiate?

Top Second Life destinations, with sex and ‘dwell’ regions stripped, Sept. 2007

Shopping

- New Brussel Mega Mall (shopping and dance club) - 106K - Phat Cat's Jazzy Blue Lounge (PG ballroom dancing/shopping) - 92K - Hedonistic Isle (beach/nightclub/shopping/etc.) - 55K RPGs

- NORSIM MultiSIM (Mature goth/cyberpunk RPG, multiple areas) - 78K - City of Lost Angels (Mature Goth/Cyberpunk RPG) - 46K - Midian City (Mature goth/cyberpunk RPG, Multiple locations) – 43K

- Romance

- Heavenly Rose Gardens (romance and wedding) - 54K - Blackhearts Cafe (80's lounge/music/dancing/romance, multiple areas) - 53K - The Lost Gardens of Apollo (romantic PG, multiple locations) - 45K

Education

- Music Academy Online

Take-home: Eliminate sex in vworlds attracting older audiences, and what’s left is shopping and RPGs Communities inside the community

Conclusion

Conclusion Generation X & Y : Today, avatars are mainly used as an anonymous way of communication in Virtual Worlds

Conclusion Generation X & Y : As virtual worlds grow, if these users see a value in remaining anonymous, it is likely that Avatars will be an important channel for their communication capabilities

Conclusion Generation X & Y : If social networks merge with 3D world it is likely that the avatar will become an identity proxy

Conclusion Generation V : Avatars are being used as a way to represent their self-image in dedicated 2.5D virtual worlds or as add on to their IM clients

Conclusion As Generation V grows, their attention will shift to Role Playing Games as well as themed shopping experience on top of social networking use

Conclusion YES YES As Generation V grows In consumer messaging, the role of the avatar is set to increase and be the channel through which IM is communicated

Final Note

Success is recognising that Avatars can have multiple forms

A key to success is to promote a way for avatars to interconnect between social network or/and 3D worlds, just like SMS success was based on interconnect

A key to success is to remain open and curious and look for which next virtual worlds will capture generation V audience

Recommendations for carriers

Expose your IM/Presence capabilities to Avatars in virtual world and social networks, gain experience and link them to your existing IM/Presence service (fixed and mobile)