Paper on real estate stocks for the national seminar sept 2011Document Transcript
Real Estate Stock Performance in comparison to Real Estate Market Dynamics Year 2007 onwards By Saurabh Verma, Amity University August 2011
Real Estate Stock Performance in comparison to Real Estate Market Dynamics Year 2007 onwards AbstractReal estate industry is a new upcoming industry which started its journey as an index on BombayStock Exchange from July 2007 onwards. The real estate index has experienced tremendousvolatility and the performance has been very poor on the Bombay Stock Exchange. Suddenlyfrom a record 85% growth since inception in Jan 2008; the index has been among the worstsector performers. Even with Union budget decision to make Infrastructure (which includes realestate per union budget) a priority sector the performance never matched the standards of othersectors. This is very much in contract to the demand and price appreciation happening in themarket. The market has seen steady increase in prices and demand for real estate and big metrocities are becoming mega cities with growth in outskirts of the cities. This paper tends to explorethe reasons for erosion of value in Realty index because of withdrawal of money by FDI’s andnational investors. The paper also looks into what action need to be taken at government andindustry level so as investors gain more trust on real estate stocks and invest more on real estatestocks.Saurabh VermaLecturer in Finance, Amity UniversityEx. Portfolio Manager, Commodities TraderCertified Financial Services Professional, Houston, Texas USA.
IntroductionThis paper looks at the asset class which has grown fastest in India for the last decade ―The RealEstate‖. Before that Real Estate sector was considered to be a part of Construction Industry.Somewhere in 2000 the real estate started its recognition as a separate sector. Real estate sectorin India has seen rapid growth since 2002-03 onwards and FDI money was allowed in RealEstate Sector in the year 2005.With FDI money flowing in and Government declaringInfrastructure and real estate as priority sector with projected investment of 2,14,000 crores; thesector is projected to have double digit growth for years to come. The period from 2005 to 2008has seen boom in real estate prices and demand in residential, commercial and retail spaces. Thenew real estate companies came into existence during this time of year 2005 to 2008 and alsomore than 12 real estate companies became public; raising money by the sale of stocks in theyear 2007. BSE Realty index was created in July 2007 to measure performance of real estatesector in the market and 14 stocks of real estate companies constitute the index. To name a fewof them are DLF, Unitech, HDIL and DB Realty. Real estate stocks had seen tremendous growthwith BSE Realty Index debuting at Rs. 7377.53 on 10th July 2007 and closing at 13,848.09 on 8thJan 2008 which is more than 85 % growth since debut. On the other hand; the property pricesshowed 10-12 % growth during this time. After the historic market crash of 2008 the BSERealty Index plummeted to 1297.82 on 09th March 2009 with erosion of more than 90% valuewhereas there has been little effect on the prices and demand in the for real estate. It was aninteresting scenario where FDI’s and other investors were withdrawing money on real estatestocks on one hand and real estate prices/demand were affected negligibly in few cities on theother hand. In few cities actually there was increase in prices during the time of economic crisis.This leads us to conclusion that investors were seeing the market differently and withdrawal of
money from real estate sector by FDI and Investors were for reason beyond market demand andand this paper figures out the reasons for the same.ObjectiveThis paper is a study of real estate sector on BSE/NSE in comparison to prices and demand forreal estate in the Indian market. The paper attempts to answer dismal performance of BSE Realtystock during the economic crisis of 2008-09. The following questions arise the need to researchthis topic 1. Why erosion of real estate stock prices by 90% not reflected in price and demand for real estate in 2008-09 economic crisis? 2. Are drivers of performance of real estate stocks different from the real estate market drivers of price and demand? 3. Is there any co-relation that exists between real estate stock performance and price/demand for the realty in market?
Background The real estate relates to the land and development above the land or underground the land which is the built environment permanently attached to the land. India has been tremendous growth in IT sector services, manufacturing and exports from late 1990’s till year up to date. Indian IT sector led the torch of globalized IT services with IT companies’ revenues increasing double digits year after year. The incomes arose at a fast pace and GDP growth along with economic liberalization has made India a hub of economic activity. Few cities have been instrumental in growth of this country which developed as center of IT, IT services and manufacturing, creating new jobs and better salaries compared to other region. To name these few cities are New Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Hyderabad and Chennai. Many people from towns started migrating to these cities and creating strong demand for housing and commercial places. Further with rise in disposable incomes, city dwellers demanded luxury housing, nearby commercial spaces, better schools and hospitals. Also the cities attracted migrant and unskilled population who had better salaries and job prospects in cities compared to their villages and towns. Indian cities created demand for mid income housing and low income housing with better living conditions for city dwellers and migrant population. This process of urbanization following people moving to big cities from villages and town created stress and demand on cities to become mega cities. Demand for better living and working standards, better schools, hospitals, roads and railways, ports and airports, bridges and power plants. It is reported that 70% of GDP income will be generated by this cities and this process of urbanization will continue till next three decades. Looking at this scenario the government is planning major infrastructure capacity boost to cities and also creating 24 new cities along the fast moving Delhi Mumbai Industrial
Corridor. It is estimated that around USD 1.2 trillion dollars will be needed to develop infrastructure and create new cities in India. In the residential housing there is shortage of 26 million houses in India especially in mid income and lower income group as per reports. Also on the commercial side hotels, commercial complexes, service apartments and entertainment complexes will see strong demand in these cities. This growth of cities and real estate infiltrated the entrance of new developers and builders in this business. Introduction to BSE Realty Index - BSE Realty Index comprising of major real estate company stocks started trading on 9th July 2007 at BSE exchange taking 2005 as its base year and Rs. 1000 as index value. The following are the constituents of the BSE Realty Index as of Aug 12th 2011. The stocks that are actively traded on BSE are the ones which are selected in the index based on their trading frequency for last 3 months.Scrip Close Full Mkt. Free-Float Free-Float Mkt. Weight in CompanyCode Price Cap. Crores Adj. Factor Cap( Crores) Index %532868 DLF LIMITED 200.9 34,104.22 0.25 8,526.05 32.17507878 UNITECH LTD 29.1 7,607.41 0.55 4,184.08 15.79532873 HOUSING DEV 117.3 4,868.00 0.65 3,164.20 11.94532832 INDBUL REAL 82.4 3,319.98 0.75 2,489.99 9.4533273 OBEROI REAL 229 7,516.54 0.15 1,127.48 4.25503100 PHOENIX MILL 215.3 3,118.52 0.35 1,091.48 4.12533150 GODREJ PROP 693.2 4,842.00 0.2 968.4 3.65532784 SOBHA DEV 233.6 2,290.77 0.4 916.31 3.46515055 ANANT RAJ IN 63.7 1,879.76 0.4 751.91 2.84533274 PRESTIGE 110.65 3,630.14 0.2 726.03 2.74533160 D B REALTY 68.35 1,662.67 0.4 665.07 2.51532780 PARSVNATH 45.55 1,895.53 0.35 663.44 2.5512179 SUNTECK REAL 293.85 1,850.26 0.35 647.59 2.44503031 PENLAND LTD 46.2 1,289.91 0.45 580.46 2.19TOTAL 79,875.71 26,502.49
The market capitalization on free float adjustment basis for the index was 26,502.49 crores. Fewof the major companies of this index comprises of DLF Limited, Unitech Ltd, Oberio Realty andHDIL which constitute around 68% of the market capitalization for this index.
Methods and AnalysisTo build the analysis model a comparative chart was drawn between BSE Realty Index andSensex. The chart below details the performance of Realty index (Orange color) since inceptioncompared to BSE Sensex (Green). As one can see Realty sensex has been very volatile and sinceMarch 2009 hit the lowest and never recovered to the mark as per initial projections.
Analysis of market from July 2007 to Jan 2008 – The market during this time showedtremendous growth with bullish stock market and growth of various industries in India includingReal Estate Sector. The ASSOCHAM reported rise in disposable income of salaried class andnew multinational companies coming to India and demanding good commercial spaces and withincrease in incomes in India. FDI for Real estate that came in during 2007 – 2008 was valued atUSD 7.8 Billion. The real estate sector reaped the maximum advantage of bullish stock markettrends in 2007. Apart from DLF, other real estate players like Housing Development andInfrastructure Ltd., Puravankara Ltd., and Nirman Ltd. raised $3.7 billion from the primarycapital markets. There were twelve public issues in 2007, which included DLF mega IPO of Rs,9,000 crore. The preferred avenue for foreign investors has been going via the private equityroute.DLF sold 49 per cent stake in its seven townships to Merrill Lynch and BrahmaInvestments to raise Rs 1,675 crore.The private equity deals also happened at entity level. Wachovia Corp, one of the largestfinancial institutions in the US, picked up 15 per cent stake in Vipul for Rs 234 crore.As valuations plunge downward, real estate companies have been increasingly looking at FDIcompliant SPVs for different projects.The Shapoorji Pallonji group struck a $290 million deal — the largest so far in the real estatespace — with a clutch of foreign investors. CVC International and the Government InvestmentCorporation [GIC] of Singapore, along with others, picked up a 15% stake in a special purposevehicle [SPV] floated by the group. The following were the rationales under which FDI hasinvested money into various projects in India 1. There is tremendous demand for residential housing, commercial/retail spaces and infrastructure development in India as per research reports
2. Most of the projects will have average gestation period of 3 years after which revenues will start coming in. 3. Money invested in housing projects will have less political and clearance risk and exit from housing projects will be easy 4. The money coming in will be used by developers for Projects approved by the FDI and not on buying more land inventoryWith the investment coming in and strong demand the companies didn’t utilize the funds givento them appropriately. A closer look into balance sheets of real estate companies tells that moneyraised during 2007 – 2008 was invested by companies in buying more land instead of working onprojects. This caused delay in construction and delay in cash flows as developers wantedpurchase of more raw material Land first which was appreciating fast and will generate futurecash flows. The result was delay in FDI approved projects and revenue coming in was slow andunimpressive on FDI approved projected. As per figures cited by Asian Development Bankprojects in India took average 18 months more compared to China because of lack of capacity tohandle projects, engineering capabilities, red tapism and lack of planning in projectimplementation. With huge money inflow stock prices surged in 2007 and real estate pricesboomed without looking at local economic fundamentals of availability of power, goodinfrastructure and social infrastructure in place. Later when investors realized the long delays onprojects and incorrect allocation of resources by builders and developers they lost the faith andstarting withdrawing money from the market. A complete collapse of real estate stockshappened; whereas fundamental demand did exist in the market. The BSE Realty index
plummeted to 1297.82 on 09th March 2009 the sector was back bitted with little resources in kittyto implement projects.A look into real estate prices from 2007 to 2011 below in various cities of India gives a differentpicture showing healthy demand with marginal drop in prices in few areas ( From July 2008 –June 2009) where as during same time few cities witnessed increase in prices. The abovebehavior doesn’t show any correlation between prices on stocks and real estate prices. E.g.Mumbai residential real estate prices increased from 117 basis points to 124 basis points whereas the stocks during same time had an erosion of 50% of value from July 2008 to June 2009. Thisindicates that investors taking more abrupt measures and distrust in real estate companies overother sector companies which have more transparency and systematic processes in place fordevelopment. In the longer run these investors would have seen growth in their wealth had theytrusted the market fundamentals rather than taking abrupt measures signaling lack of faith in realestate companies handling investments. Jan- July- Jan- July- Oct- Jan- June Dec June Dec Jan- Apr- Jul-Sep Dec Mar 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 Mar Jun 2010 2010 2011CITIES Index Index Index Index Index 2010 2010 Index Index IndexHyderabad 100 96 92 65 81 81 82 87 87 83Faridabad 100 100 121 139 145 154 152 170 176 165Patna 100 103 100 107 119 127 124 148 146 146Ahmedabad 100 106 100 127 128 113 131 141 164 165Chennai 100 104 95 120 143 164 183 210 214 218Jaipur 100 119 115 71 63 66 61 63 69 67Lucknow 100 103 102 104 119 112 133 148 152 157Pune 100 101 97 103 117 124 135 140 141 148Surat 100 101 98 111 123 109 136 128 133 128Kochi 100 106 95 90 83 79 83 97 101 86Bhopal 100 139 151 139 162 158 153 166 173 167Kolkata 100 114 140 162 185 165 176 191 213 211Mumbai 100 112 117 124 126 134 160 167 173 175
Bengaluru 100 73 76 58 59 64 68 74 101 88Delhi 100 124 130 121 113 106 110 115 123 126ResultsThe following were things which resulted in withdrawal of money in Real Estate Sector 1. Indian realtors instead of investing money in projects; created more land banks to take advantage of increasing prices. This cause delay in cash flows and lack of trust of FDI as the money invested was not used appropriately for the given projects. 2. The real estate companies lacked capacity and structure to handle big projects. The engineering and project management capabilities to handle mega projects was not built and experienced by the companies. 3. The red tapism and government control and clearances required; caused delay in projects. 4. There was lack of planning, standard guidelines and real estate professionals who knew best practices, international standards and experience of implementing multimillion dollar projects. 5. There is definite correlation between Real estate stock performance and Real estate price index but crash of realty in 2008-09 had few other reasons than market demand and supply dynamics. The correlation coefficient exits between data collected for real estate
stock performance and real estate prices and calculation of these coefficient and explanation will be theme for another research paper.DiscussionTo attract real estate investment by FDI’s and other investors the government and companiesthrough its Real estate association have to undergo change in doing business. More transparencyand capacity building is needed to make investors confident about the Real estate sector. EscrowAccounts and third party performance appraisal should be mandatory for FDI approved projectsto decrease the risks as perceived by the Investors. The government need to further simplify andreduce the clearance time by centralizing the process of clearances and making clearances atmunicipal levels very simple and straight forward. Many foreign companies find it difficult tobusiness in India without having an Indian partner lack of structured practices and understandingof Indian market. Also dealing with corruption, political intervention and red tapism needs adifferent expertise which many foreign companies have no experience in dealing with . On theother hand real estate companies need to first build internal capacity to experienced engineers,project managers, designers, construction managers, building professionals, capital managementand finance professionals who have relevant knowledge and skill-set according to changingscope of real estate industry.A complete transparency and relationship building exercise with investors is needed to buildtheir faith in this sector. The money resource provided by investors has to judiciously used as perproject plans and relevant standard information about project progress and implementation alongwith risk measures taken should be provided to the investors. This will reduce the cost of capital
which is very high for this industry as investors will be more open to investing decreasing thecost of acquisition of money. The real estate projects are very capital intensive and onlytransparency and good governance of projects can bring in better investments to this sector. Ourtime for delivery will be significantly be improved with better execution and by taking abovementioned steps which will guarantee investors better exit strategy and money rotation will bemuch easier. This will significantly impact the real estate index performance and stocks willattract investments. The experience of real estate stocks on the Sensex has been for just four yearduration and better execution of projects will improve the prices of Realty stock and make stocksmovement more in tune with the fluctuations of the sensex.
References 1) ASSOCHAM Eco Pulse Study – Annual FDI Report 2008 – 2009 2) ASSOCHAM Business Barometer – Future Prospects of Real Estate Sector – Oct 2010 3) FDI Consolidated Policy – March 31st 2011 - Department of Industry Policy and Promotion – Ministry of Commerce 4) Bloomberg India 5) National Housing Bank http://www.nhb.org.in/Residex/About_Residex.php