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Technical Analysis
 

Technical Analysis

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    Technical Analysis Technical Analysis Document Transcript

    • REPORT ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS<br /> GROUP MEMBERS<br />
      • NITA CHANGANI
      • VIJAY POPAT
      • WASIM AHMED
      • RAHUL AGARWALLA
      • RACHNA JAIN
      • SONAM JAISWAL
      BENCHMARKERS<br />TECHNICAL ANALYSIS<br />Technical analysis is a security analysis discipline for forecasting the future direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. Technical analysis and fundamental analysis are the two main schools of thought in the financial markets. <br />Technical analysis looks at the price movement of a security and uses this data to predict its future price movements. <br />Fundamental analysis, on the other hand, looks at economic factors, known as fundamentals. Technical analysis is a method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume. <br />Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security's intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future activity. It uses charts and computer programs to study the stock’s trading volume and price movements in the hope of identifying a trend. In fact the decision made on the basis of technical analysis is done only after inferring a trend and judging the future movement of the stock on the basis of the trend.<br /> Technical Analysis assumes that the market is efficient and the price has already taken into consideration the other factors related to the company and the industry. It is because of this assumption that many think technical analysis is a tool, which is effective for short-term investing.<br />HISTORY OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS<br />The principles of technical analysis derive from the observation of financial markets over hundreds of years. The oldest known hints of technical analysis appear in Joseph de la Vega's accounts of the Dutch markets in the 17th century. In Asia, the oldest example of technical analysis is thought to be a method developed by Homma Munehisa during early 18th century which evolved into the use of candlestick techniques, and is today a main charting tool.<br />Dow Theory is based on the collected writings of Dow Jones co-founder and Editor Charles Dow, and inspired the use and development of modern technical analysis from the end of the 19th century. Other pioneers of analysis techniques include Ralph Nelson Elliott and William Delbert Gann who developed their respective techniques in the early 20th century.<br />Many more technical tools and theories have been developed and enhanced in recent decades, with an increasing emphasis on computer-assisted techniques. Walter Deemer was one of the technical analysts of that time. He started at Merrill Lynch in New York as a member of Bob Farrell's department. Then when the legendary Gerry Tsai moved from Fidelity to found the Manhattan Fund in 1966, Deemer joined him. Tsai used to consult him before every major block trade, at the start of a time when large volume institutional trading became the norm and the meal ticket for brokers. Deemer, could recreate market history on his charts and cite statistics. He maintained contact with the group of other<br /> pros around then, who shared their insights with each other in a collegial confidence worthy of the priesthood. Other pioneers of analysis techniques include Ralph Nelson Elliott and William Delbert Gann who developed their respective techniques in the early 20th century.<br />CHARACTERISTICS<br />
      • Technical analysis employs models and trading rules based on price and volume transformations, such as the relative strength index, moving averages, regressions, inter-market and intra-market price correlations, cycles or, classically, through recognition of chart patterns.
      • Technical analysis stands in contrast to the fundamental analysis approach to security and stock analysis. Technical analysis "ignores" the actual nature of the company, market, currency or commodity and is based solely on "the charts," that is to say price and volume information, whereas fundamental analysis does look at the actual facts of the company, market, currency or commodity. For example, any large brokerage, trading group, or financial institution will typically have both a technical analysis and fundamental analysis team.
      • Technical analysis is widely used among traders and financial professionals, and is very often used by active day traders, market makers, and pit traders. In the 1960s and 1970s it was widely dismissed by academics. In a recent review, Irwin and Park reported that 56 of 95 modern studies found it produces positive results, but noted that many of the positive results were rendered dubious by issues such as data snooping so that the evidence in support of technical analysis was inconclusive; it is still considered by many academics to be pseudoscience. Academics such as Eugene Fama say the evidence for technical analysis is sparse and is inconsistent with the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis. Users hold that even if technical analysis cannot predict the future, it helps to identify trading opportunities.
      • In the foreign exchange markets, its use may be more widespread than fundamental analysis. While some isolated studies have indicated that technical trading rules might lead to consistent returns in the period prior to 1987, most academic work has focused on the nature of the anomalous position of the foreign exchange market. It is speculated that this anomaly is due to central bank intervention. Recent research suggests that combining various trading signals into a Combined Signal Approach may be able to increase profitability and reduce dependence on any single rule.
      HOW TECHNICAL ANAYSIS IS DONE?<br />Technical Analysis is done by identifying the trend from past movements and then using it as a tool to predict future price movements of the stock. It can be done by using any of the following methods:<br />a) Moving Averages— This method is used to predict the trend and specify various support and resistance levels in the short and long term period. Most commonly used moving averages are 30 DMAs and 200 DMAs.Where DMA means Days Moving Average.<br />b) Charts & Patterns— Some analysts’ uses charts and patterns to decide on the trend and then judge the future movement. The tool used by such analyst is converting the chart in one of the many form of many shapes commonly formed by stocks. Some of such patterns are:<br /> TYPES OF TRENDS<br /> Trends can be classified broadly in 3 types.<br />a) Uptrend: - Generally a stock moves in any direction with phases of consolidation or moving against the trend for a short period. But still it creates a higher Highs and Lows in case of an uptrend. In short each short rally will create new High for the stock.<br />b) Downward: - In this case as against Uptrend the stock creates lower Highs and<br />lows. Furthermore in case of Downtrend the fall is much more steeper than the<br />rise in case of Uptrend.<br />c) Range-bound: - In case of such a trend the price moves in a small range for the<br />long period. There is no apparent direction as far as trend is concerned in this<br />case.<br />Role of Volume: Volume plays a key role in deciding about the kind of future movement in stock. Whenever there is a sudden rise in the volume of the stock and if it is not followed by a price fall, it is a sign of consolidation and that the price may rise in near future. Generally if any stock breaks any trend it is accompanied by huge rise in volume.<br />In case of range bound trend the volume tends to die down to a great extent. Smart investor uses technical analysis to judge the rise in volume and take early positions in the stock during breakthroughs.<br /> Who uses Technical Analysis?<br />Investors for their short-term trading decisions use Technical Analysis. This short-term may be further divided in day trading, short-term investment and for hedging purposes.<br />The role played by Technical Analysis in each case is as follows:<br />1) Day Traders: A day trader is one who takes and squares off his position both on the same day. Mostly a day trader counts on turnover rather than margin. A day trader will interpret the market movement in the manner stated below.<br />.<br />2) Short term investors: These people form the biggest clientele base of both the brokers and the Technical Analyst. To explain the working let’s take the price movement curve of Infosys Technologies on NSE for the period 1st January 2003 to 9th April 2003. On closely analyzing the chart you will notice that a sustained buying is coming at the level of around Rs.4000. Another aspect, which should be noted, is the declining trend in terms of short term ‘High’ created by the stock. We can clearly deduce that each short-term rally is creating a lower high over the given term. In such a situation it is recommended by analyst to buy at the resistance level but sell it off immediately if it breaks the level by a margin of 2-3%. This is just an illustrative example and the level of analysis varies with each case.<br />3) Hedgers: These are generally big investors, who have lot of money at stake and hence they look to have some hedging of their risk. The strategy followed by this section of investors is that they compare the stock in consideration with the index and on the basis of the result of this comparison they take their position in the stock. This can be explained by comparing the movement of nifty on the graph with Infosys movement as we have done in the figure given below.<br />If we look at both the charts of nifty movement with Infosys movement we find that although both have fallen over the period but Infosys has witnessed some rallies and hence we can clearly say that a hedger will benefit by using technical Analysis and getting out at the periods when Infosys has given an upward rally.<br />Thus if we use only technical analysis in itself and do not consider other aspects it is very unlikely that we will have much success in the long run, particularly in case of short-term investments. But if we use Technical analysis along with fundamental analysis or discount the industry and company related news while considering the valuation, our chances of minimizing the risk brightens.<br />One thing that we must realize is that technical analysis provides us only with the trend and judge future on that basis, it can be far from actual in few cases, one of them was the day Infosys crashed by 30% on a single day. By no imagination and no analysis one could have guessed the same or rather have come closer to it. Therefore the best use of technical analysis is to realize the trend and levels at which it will break the trend so that one is prepared to take positions when such trend breaks. It is because of this disadvantage that Technical analysis more useful only for short-term investing.<br />