How unmarried women, youth and people     of color defined this election              December 12, 2012
Methodology and SpecificationsThis presentation is based on a survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan RosnerResearch for Dem...
By Holding the RAE, Obama Held the White HouseThinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- Democrat Barac...
Unmarried Women Decided this election            © Greenberg Quinlan Rosner   4
Y                       RAENearly Half the 2012 Electorate                                         Percent of the Electora...
Obama Holds Unmarried Women and Grows Hispanic                      Support Thinking about the presidential election, did ...
Congressional Democrats Rebound from 2010 Among                    Unmarried Women  Now let me ask you about the election ...
Gender Gap is Big, but Marriage Gap is HugeThinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- Democrat Barack O...
Conservative Validation               “Far more significant than the                 gender gap is the marriage           ...
Marriage Gap Extends Throughout the Electorate                            Obama-                                          ...
Marriage Gap in Battleground States   Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- Democrat Barack Obama ...
Marriage Gap in Battleground States   Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- Democrat Barack Obama ...
#1 reason people voted for Obama – brought us through                   economic crisisNow let me read you a list of reaso...
Women’s Narrative a Leading Reason to Support              President among Unmarried WomenNow let me read you a list of re...
Voted against Romney because out-of-touch and for the rich above                              all  Let me read you a list ...
Women’s Narrative Hurts Romney Among Unmarried                          WomenLet me read you a list of doubts about Mitt R...
Looking Ahead: Will 2014 Look Like 2006 or 2010      Now let me ask you about the election for Congress. Did you vote for ...
Agenda Moving ForwardNow that Barack Obama has won another term in office and we have a RepublicanCongress, which two or t...
Progressive Role for Government Which is closer to your view:                          -12                                ...
WORLD HEADQUARTERS       EUROPEAN HEADQUARTERS                    LATIN AMERICAN HEADQUARTERS10 G Street, NE          405 ...
Successes to Date and Looking Forward    www.voterparticipation.org         @VoterCenter          www.wvwvaf.org          ...
2012: Unmarried Women Breakthrough          “Who wins them at the end of the day, wins the          election.”- Chuck Todd...
2012 Registration ProgramOver 875,000 Americans returned registration applications for an average return rate             ...
Bending the Voter Registration Cost Curve                             2004     2008        2012          VR Response %:   ...
Crossing Platforms      •Integrated trackable URLs into      mailings in states with online      registration (CO, IN, NV,...
Vote By MailPartnering with the League of Conservation Voters Education  Fund, VPC mailed a combined 1.8 million VBM appli...
Bending the Vote By Mail Cost Curve                               2004      2008      Sept 2012     VBM Response %:       ...
Looking Ahead: Importance of Absentee/Early Vote                                     VPC program responders voted early/ab...
Looking Ahead: More Lessons for 2014 and 2016Run a quarterly mailings program.Improve List technology and the ability to...
www.voterparticipation.org     @VoterCenter     www.wvwvaf.org     @Women_Vote
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How Unmarried Women, Youth, and People of Color Defined the 2012 Election

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Presentation given by Page Gardner of Voter Participation Center, featuring research from Green Quinlan Rosner Research.

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How Unmarried Women, Youth, and People of Color Defined the 2012 Election

  1. 1. How unmarried women, youth and people of color defined this election December 12, 2012
  2. 2. Methodology and SpecificationsThis presentation is based on a survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan RosnerResearch for Democracy Corps.The survey of 1001 likely 2012 voters nationwide was conducted from November 5-7, 2012.Survey results weighted to reflect National Exit Survey.Unless otherwise noted, margin of error= +/-3.1 percentage points at 95%confidence. 2
  3. 3. By Holding the RAE, Obama Held the White HouseThinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney? Obama Romney +39 +35 +19 +28 69 67 63 59 40 32 35 30Obama McCain Obama Romney Obama McCain Obama Romney 2008 2012 2008 2012 Rising American Electorate Non-Rising American Electorate 3 *Note: 2008 results reflect the findings of the combined WVWV/CAF/RR/DCOR post-election results.
  4. 4. Unmarried Women Decided this election © Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 4
  5. 5. Y RAENearly Half the 2012 Electorate Percent of the Electorate +3 +3 +1 - +1 48 45 23 20 18 19 13 13 9 10 2008 2012 2008 2012 2008 2012 2008 2012 2008 2012 Rising Unmarried African Youth Hispanics American women Americans Electorate *Note: Survey Results Reflect Estimates From Edison/Mitofsky/CNN exit polls. 5
  6. 6. Obama Holds Unmarried Women and Grows Hispanic Support Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney? +34 +23 +40 +36 +36 +44 70 71 66 67 67 60 37 32 30 31 31 27Obama McCain Obama Romney Obama McCain Obama Romney Obama McCain Obama Romney 2008 2012 2008 2012 2008 2012 Youth (18-29) Unmarried Women Hispanics *Note: results come from Edison/Mitofsky/CNN exit polls. 6
  7. 7. Congressional Democrats Rebound from 2010 Among Unmarried Women Now let me ask you about the election for Congress, did you vote for -- (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)?Marriage 43 30 48Gap: -3 +40 -14 +16 -9 +39 69 69 56 57 54 48 51 42 45 41 29 30 Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Cand Cand Cand Cand Cand Cand Cand Cand Cand Cand Cand Cand Married Unmarried Married Unmarried Married Unmarried Women Women Women Women Women Women 2008 2010 2012 7 *Note: 2008 results reflect the findings of the combined WVWV/CAF/RR/DCOR post-election results,
  8. 8. Gender Gap is Big, but Marriage Gap is HugeThinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney? Gender Gap: 18 Marriage Gap: 43 -7 +11 -7 +36 67 52 55 53 45 44 46 31Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney Men Women Married Women Unmarried Women *Note: Survey Results Reflect Estimates From Edison/Mitofsky/CNN exit polls. 8
  9. 9. Conservative Validation “Far more significant than the gender gap is the marriage gap. And what was made clear in the 2012 election was that the cohorts of unmarried women and men are now at historic highs​—​and are still increasing.” -Jonathan Last 9
  10. 10. Marriage Gap Extends Throughout the Electorate Obama- Obama- Romney Romney Marriage gapMarried women 46-53 Unmarried women 67-31 43White married women 37-62 White unmarried women 52-46 31Non-white married women Non-white unmarried 78-22 91-7 28 womenMarried women under 30 Unmarried women under 53-45 30 71-26 37Married women, non- Unmarried women, non-college 41-58 college 68-31 54Married women, college 49-49 Unmarried women, college 67-31 36Married women, Unmarried women,battleground states 46-53 battleground states 65-33 39 10 *Note: Survey Results Reflect Estimates From Edison/Mitofsky/CNN exit polls.
  11. 11. Marriage Gap in Battleground States Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney? Romney ObamaMarriageGap: +29 +36 +38 +46 71 69 61 63 52 54 53 52 48 47 47 45 36 36 27 28 Unmarried Married Unmarried Married Unmarried Married Unmarried Married Women Women Women Women Women Women Women Women Colorado Florida Iowa Nevada *Note: Results come from Edison/Mitofsky/CNN exit polls. 11
  12. 12. Marriage Gap in Battleground States Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney? Romney ObamaMarriageGap: +19 +38 +36 +35 66 67 63 64 54 52 53 50 50 45 47 46 35 33 35 32 Unmarried Married Unmarried Married Unmarried Married Unmarried Married Women Women Women Women Women Women Women Women New Hampshire Ohio Virginia Wisconsin *Note: Results come from Edison/Mitofsky/CNN exit polls. 12
  13. 13. #1 reason people voted for Obama – brought us through economic crisisNow let me read you a list of reasons to support Barack Obama. Which THREE describe the most importantreasons why you voted for Barack Obama?Took out Osama bin Laden and ended warsin Iraq and Afghanistan 27 Leadership and National SecurityRespect him as a leader 21Passed Affordable Health Care Act for all 30 Social InsuranceWill protect Medicare and Social Security 26from cutsBrought America through the economic 39crisis and needs more timeHis jobs plan for American energy, auto 21efficiency, infrastructure and more teachers Economic ActionWill get millionaires to pay higher taxes and 18pay their fair shareRescued U.S. auto industry 13For Planned Parenthood, preventive health 26care and pay equity for women Support WomenStood up for minorities and equal 19 and Minoritiesrights, like the Dream Act 0 25 50 13
  14. 14. Women’s Narrative a Leading Reason to Support President among Unmarried WomenNow let me read you a list of reasons to support Barack Obama. Which THREE Unmarrieddescribe the most important reasons why you voted for Barack Obama? Total RAE WomenBrought America through the economic crisis and needs more time 40 40 34Passed Affordable Health Care Act for all 30 27 23Took out Osama bin Laden and ended wars in Iraq and Afghanistan 27 32 24For Planned Parenthood, preventive health care and pay equity for women 26 23 30Will protect Medicare and Social Security from cuts 26 27 30Respect him as a leader 21 21 23His jobs plan for American energy, auto efficiency, infrastructure and more 21 23 23teachersStood up for minorities and equal rights, like the Dream Act 19 20 21Will get millionaires to pay higher taxes and pay fair share 18 19 19Rescued U.S. auto industry 13 10 9Could not vote for Romney 10 11 13 14
  15. 15. Voted against Romney because out-of-touch and for the rich above all Let me read you a list of doubts about Mitt Romney. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Mitt Romney?With the rich and out of touch with average 28peopleHis statement that he doesnt care about the "47 27percent" 20 For rich andWants more tax cuts for the wealthy out of touchClosed companies and shipped jobs abroad 19when CEO of Bain CapitalFor the Bush trickle down policies that caused 17the economic crashPlan to change Medicare and raise costs for 24seniors Threats toWould repeal Obamacare 16 Social InsuranceChanged positions so often we dont know what 30he believes LeadershipStands for Tea Party Republicans who produce 15 Qualitiesgridlock in WashingtonBeing against Planned Parenthood and 27preventive health services for women WomenWould increase military spending and let 14generals decide whether to keep troops in Foreign PolicyAfghanistan 0 25 50 15
  16. 16. Women’s Narrative Hurts Romney Among Unmarried WomenLet me read you a list of doubts about Mitt Romney. Regardless of how youvoted, which THREE describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Mitt UnmarriedRomney? Total RAE WomenBeing against Planned Parenthood and preventive health services for women 27 27 33Changed positions so often we dont know what he believes 30 28 29His statement that he doesnt care about the "47 percent" 27 31 33With the rich and out of touch with average people 28 32 35Plan to change Medicare and raise costs for seniors 24 25 28Wants more tax cuts for the wealthy 20 20 18Closed companies and shipped jobs abroad when CEO of Bain Capital 19 14 11For the Bush trickle down policies that caused the economic crash 17 19 22Would repeal Obamacare 16 16 19Stands for Tea Party Republicans who produce gridlock in Washington 15 15 13Would increase military spending and let generals decide whether to keep 14 17 11troops in Afghanistan 16
  17. 17. Looking Ahead: Will 2014 Look Like 2006 or 2010 Now let me ask you about the election for Congress. Did you vote for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)? Democrat Republican100 +33 +20 +22 +17 +79 +81 +39 +30 89 9080 6860 65 64 60 60 5740 40 38 40 34 32 2920 10 9 0 2006 2010 2006 2010 2006 2010 2006 2010 Unmarried African Youth** Hispanic** Women* American** Page 17 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner *Note: 2006 and 2008 results reflect Democracy Corps Post Election Research **Note: Results reflect CNN/Edison Miftosky exit poll figures
  18. 18. Agenda Moving ForwardNow that Barack Obama has won another term in office and we have a RepublicanCongress, which two or three of the following do you believe should be the first Unmarriedpriority of Congress and the President: Total RAE WomenInvest in education, including hiring 100,000 more teachers, more Pell Grants for college 33 41 37and investing in early childhood education.Protect Social Security and Medicare from significant cuts 33 34 36Support a grand bargain to reduce the deficit where Democrats agree to cuts in spending 30 27 27and Republicans agree to tax increases for the wealthyInvest in an "all of the above" energy strategy that exploits domestic oil, gas and coal, but 29 24 25also expands new, clean energy like wind, solar and bio-fuels.Pass a new jobs bill that increases exports and rebuilds roads, bridges and economic 25 21 14infrastructureCrack down on companies that pay women LESS money if they perform THE SAME job as 18 23 29their male colleaguesRaise taxes on top earners to help reduce the deficit and pay for important programs. 12 13 14Fully implement the health care reform law 12 13 15Protect Planned Parenthood and womens health care choices, including the right to 14 18 21choose to have an abortion. 18Protect programs for the vulnerable, including food stamps and Medicaid 12 13 15
  19. 19. Progressive Role for Government Which is closer to your view: -12 +13 56 51 44 38Gov’t should do more to Gov’t is doing too many Gov’t should do more to Gov’t is doing too many solve problems things better left to solve problems things better left to businesses and individuals businesses and individuals Total Unmarried Women *Note: Results Reflect Estimates From Edison/Mitofsky/CNN exit polls. 19
  20. 20. WORLD HEADQUARTERS EUROPEAN HEADQUARTERS LATIN AMERICAN HEADQUARTERS10 G Street, NE 405 Carrington House Cabrera 6060, 7DSuite 500 6 Hertford Street C1414 BHNWashington, DC 20002 London, UK W1J 7SU Ciudad de Buenos Aires, ArgentinaT: 202.478.8300 T: +44.(0).207.096.5070 T: +54.11.4772.0813F: 202.478.8301 F: +44.(0).207.096.5068 www.greenbergresearch.com | www.gqrr.com
  21. 21. Successes to Date and Looking Forward www.voterparticipation.org @VoterCenter www.wvwvaf.org @Women_Vote
  22. 22. 2012: Unmarried Women Breakthrough “Who wins them at the end of the day, wins the election.”- Chuck Todd NBC News, 11/5/12 “The big story of the night was single women,”- Meghan Daum, Los Angeles Times, 11/8/12 “We knew exactly who we had to go get – [unmarried women, Latinos, African Americans] --and thats how we got the turnout numbers that mattered." Obama Campaign Manager Jim Messina, Rolling Stone, 12/7/12
  23. 23. 2012 Registration ProgramOver 875,000 Americans returned registration applications for an average return rate of 8.3% at an average cost of $5.10 per application. 2012 Registration 875,000 380,000 364,000 300,000 Total People of Color Young People Unmarried Womenwww.voterparticipation.org VPC Cycle Counts 12/4/12
  24. 24. Bending the Voter Registration Cost Curve 2004 2008 2012 VR Response %: 2.90% 4.51% 8.29% Cost per App: $9.79 $7.65 $5.10 Cost per Voter: $13.73 $11.32 $7.53www.voterparticipation.org 24
  25. 25. Crossing Platforms •Integrated trackable URLs into mailings in states with online registration (CO, IN, NV, OR) . •Added QR codes for mobile use. 34,000 mail recipients used QR codes or URLs to check their registration status online. •Ran online campaigns including Facebook and Google ads, registering an additional 12,000 voters and generating 60,000 “clicks”. Ads featuring state flags worked best. 25www.voterparticipation.org
  26. 26. Vote By MailPartnering with the League of Conservation Voters Education Fund, VPC mailed a combined 1.8 million VBM application forms to RAE members and high scoring true green modeled individuals. Resulting VBM Requests 140,000
  27. 27. Bending the Vote By Mail Cost Curve 2004 2008 Sept 2012 VBM Response %: 4.80% 5.51% 8.29% Cost per App: $8.92 $6.26 $5.10 Cost per (Early) Voter: $12.38 $9.79 $7.85www.voterparticipation.org 27
  28. 28. Looking Ahead: Importance of Absentee/Early Vote VPC program responders voted early/absentee (AVEV) at rate that was 25% higher than that of the average voter and 14% higher than newly registered voters in general. Absentee/Early Vote: VPC vs. Overall 90 Percent Voted Absentee/Early 80 70 77 72 60 66 50 58 58 40 50 45 41 30 36 31 29 20 10 19 20 10 - CO NV NM NC OH WA WI VPC Program Responders Overall 28Source: Catalist Records, December 3, 2012
  29. 29. Looking Ahead: More Lessons for 2014 and 2016Run a quarterly mailings program.Improve List technology and the ability to match andtarget names more accurately.Grow the suite of registration tools –including online.Speak to and advocate for the policy agenda that helpedmotivate the RAE and UMW this year.Make voting easier, not harder. 29
  30. 30. www.voterparticipation.org @VoterCenter www.wvwvaf.org @Women_Vote
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