Glevum Afghanistan presidential election 2014 wave one survey findings

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Glevum Afghanistan presidential election 2014 wave one survey findings

  1. 1. Core Glevum Associates –  Developed Afghanistan Presidential Election 2014 Poll Results (Wave 1) December 2013 Key Findings from face-to-face survey of 2,148 Afghans in 34 provinces who are likely to vote in the April 5, 2014 Presidential election 1
  2. 2. CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE Unless otherwise indicated by Glevum Associates, the information contained herein is Glevum Proprietary Information and therefore confidential. This brief is intended for the exclusive use of the individual or entity receiving this brief from an authorized Glevum representative. If the reader of this brief is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this brief is strictly prohibited. If you have received this brief in error or are not sure whether it is confidential, please immediately notify Glevum by e-mail and destroy any copies, electronic, paper or otherwise, which you may have of this brief. The authorized recipient of this brief is requested to protect this proprietary information and not to share this brief with any other person or entity without written authority from Glevum Associates.
  3. 3. Methodology Methodology 3
  4. 4. Methodology - Overview Glevum Associates is pleased to present the main findings from a national level representative survey measuring the opinions among Afghans in 34 provinces regarding the presidential election due to be held on April 5, 2014. The study sampled 2,148 Afghan individuals who are likely to vote in the upcoming election and was fielded between November 27 and December 3, 2014 using face-to-face interviews. The sampling margin of error is + 2.11 with a 95% level of confidence. For subgroups, the margin of error is larger. 4
  5. 5. Methodology – Sampling Method Summary The sample was selected using a randomly-selected, probability sample proportionate to size method. The sample was obtained using the following steps: 1.  The number of completed interviews needed in each province was proportionate to the country’s total population. (Population figures from the Central Statistics Organization (http://cso.gov.af/en) were used.) –  The number of sampling points needed in each province was determined by dividing by 10. (An estimated 10 interviews were conducted at each sampling unit.) 2.  Each district represented a primary sampling unit (PSU). The number of districts selected in each province was proportionate to the respective provincial population. The districts were randomly selected using “probability proportional to size” (PPS) so that each district or PSU, regardless of population, had the same probability of being sampled. 5
  6. 6. Methodology – Sampling Method Summary 3.  Villages in each district were then randomly selected using a simple random selection process. –  Within cities, neighborhoods (nahias) were used; in rural areas towns and villages were used 4.  Starting points (the point at which interviewers begin the household selection process) were randomly selected using a simple random selection process. –  Starting points were recognizable locations – such as mosques, schools, bazaars, or other easily recognizable locations within each of the selected settlements for the survey. 5.  Interviewers used a Kish grid to randomly select individual respondents within each selected household. The Kish grid avoids only heads of household being interviewed. 6.  Due to local cultural traditions, the universe was divided at the outset into male and female sub-samples. However, males have registered to vote in larger numbers than females. 6
  7. 7. Methodology – Sampling Method Summary 7.  To avoid oversampling females, the samples was split into approximately 60% males and 40% females. 8.  Instability and violence in some provinces/districts has required some sampling points to be substituted to keep interviewers out of more unstable and unpredictable areas for their own safety. 7
  8. 8. Methodology - Regions Provinces were assigned to the following regions: North   South   East   West   Badakshan   Daykundi   Bamyan   Badghis   Baghlan   Helmand   Ghazni   Farah   Balkh   Kandahar   Kabul   Ghor   Faryab   Urozgan   Kapisa   Herat   Jawzjan   Zabul   Khost   Nimroz   Kunduz   Kunar   Samangan   Laghman   Sar-e-Pul   Logar   Takhar   Nangarhar   Nuristan   Paktika   Paktya   Panjsher   Parwan   Wardak   8
  9. 9. The Sample: Achieved Population Sample Achieved Population Sample Male Total Province Female Achieved Sampling Points 1 Achieved Population Sample Number Percent Number Percent Badakshan 9   77   44   57.1%   33   42.9%   Badghis 4   36   23   63.9%   13   36.1%   Baghlan 8   84   48   57.1%   36   42.9%   Balkh 12   122   74   60.7%   48   39.3%   Bamyan 4   31   19   61.3%   12   38.7%   Daykundi 4   43   24   55.8%   19   44.2%   Farah 3   43   24   55.8%   19   44.2%   Faryab 9   82   49   59.8%   33   40.2%   Ghazni 11   89   53   59.6%   36   40.4%   Ghor 5   54   34   63.0%   20   37.0%   Helmand 8   71   47   66.2%   24   33.8%   Herat 17   134   80   59.7%   54   40.3%   Jawzjan 5   49   31   63.3%   18   36.7%   1 Average of 9 interviews per sampling point 9
  10. 10. The Sample: Achieved Population Sample Achieved Population Sample Male Total Female Province Achieved Sampling Points 1 Achieved Population Sample Number Percent Number Percent Kabul 38   321   192   59.8%   129   40.2%   Kandahar 9   98   57   58.2%   41   41.8%   Kapisa 4   39   22   56.4%   17   43.6%   Khost 5   40   27   67.5%   13   32.5%   Kunar 4   40   26   65.0%   14   35.0%   Kunduz 9   70   39   55.7%   31   44.3%   Laghman 4   41   27   65.9%   14   34.1%   Logar 3   34   19   55.9%   15   44.1%   Nangarhar 14   106   60   56.6%   46   43.4%   Nimroz 1   15   10   66.7%   5   33.3%   Nuristan 1   12   8   66.7%   4   33.3%   Paktia 5   48   28   58.3%   20   41.7%   1 Average of 9 interviews per sampling point 10
  11. 11. The Sample: Achieved Population Sample Achieved Population Sample Male Total Female Province Achieved Sampling Points 1 Achieved Population Sample Number Percent Number Percent Paktika 4   36   24   66.7%   12   33.3%   Panjshir 1   13   9   69.2%   4   30.8%   Parwan 6   56   36   62.1%   22   37.9%   Samangan 3   26   15   57.7%   11   42.3%   Sar-i-Pul 5   34   19   55.9%   15   44.1%   Takhar 9   87   53   60.9%   34   39.1%   Uruzghan 3   33   29   87.9%   4   12.1%   Wardak 5   56   34   60.7%   22   39.3%   Zabul 3   26   16   61.5%   10   38.5%   236   2,148   1,300   60.5%   848   39.5%   TOTALS: Note: Males have registered to vote in significantly larger numbers than females. To avoid oversampling females, the samples was split into approximately 60% males and 40% females. 11
  12. 12. Methodology - How “Likely Voters” Were Determined Summary: To be considered a likely voter, respondents must have had a voter registration card or plan to obtain a registration card and “definitely” or “probably” will vote in the upcoming election. •  Likely voters were determined by asking respondents three questions (provided below). These questions determined whether the respondent had a voter registration card, planned to get a card, and whether he or she said they planned to vote. •  Respondents were asked the following: –  Do you currently have a voter registration card? •  If the respondent answered “no, not sure, or prefer not to answer” to the question above, respondents were then asked: –  Do you plan to register to vote so that you can vote in the presidential election in April? •  If a respondent did not have a voter registration card (or was not sure or preferred not to answer) and said that s/he did not plan to register to vote, s/he was not considered a likely voter and was not interviewed. 12
  13. 13. Methodology - How “Likely Voters” Were Determined •  If a respondent had a voter registration card or planned to register to vote, s/he was asked: –  Will you definitely vote for the president in April, probably vote, or will you not vote? •  If a respondent indicated s/he will not vote, s/he was not considered a likely voter and was not interviewed. •  Additionally, if a respondent answered “don’t know/not sure” or “prefer not to answer” to all three questions used to determine likely voters, s/he was not interviewed. •  The requirements for being considered a likely voter will change with waves 2 and 3 by becoming more strict. 13
  14. 14. Summary of Key Summary of Key Findings Findings (by Issue) 14
  15. 15. Summary of Key Findings Most Popular Candidates •  Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay has a 4-point lead over Doctor Abdullah Abdullah (29% compared to 25%, respectively). About one in ten likely voters (11%) is undecided. •  Respondents who were undecided or preferred not to say who they would vote for were then asked if there is a candidate for whom they might vote. Of those respondents, 13% said they would vote for Doctor Abdullah Abdullah and 8% said they would vote for Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay. •  When the answers to these two questions – for whom would you vote and, if no candidate is mentioned, for whom might you vote – are combined, Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay remains in the lead with 30% followed by Doctor Abdullah Abdullah at 26%. •  Additionally, when the two questions are combined, 11% are still undecided about which candidate they will vote for. 15
  16. 16. Summary of Key Findings Most Popular Candidates •  Respondents were asked for whom they would vote, if they could not vote for their preferred candidate. Again, Ahmadzay and Abdullah are neck and neck (21% and 20%, respectively) as the second choice candidate. •  All other candidates are below 10%. •  Support for candidates varies by region but varies only slightly between genders. •  Regardless of whom they support, 26% of respondents still said Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay would win and 21% opined that Doctor Abdullah Abdullah would win. •  Among all candidates, Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay’s support is the most firm with 70% of those respondents who indicated that they will vote for him saying that they will not change their minds before the April election. 16
  17. 17. Summary of Key Findings Voter Preferences •  A majority of respondents (63%) prefer the presidential and vicepresidential candidates be from different tribes or ethnic groups, while a third (34%) says tribal or ethnic affiliation does not matter. •  Fully 84% of respondents indicate that they would vote for a candidate from a different tribe or ethnic group than their own or that it would not matter if the candidate was from a different tribe or ethnic group. •  Most respondents (59%) would or might vote for a female candidate for President. Fully 82% would or might vote for a candidate who asked a woman to run as vice-president. •  Majorities of respondents consider it is important that a candidate listens to all sides of an issue before making decisions; provides specific plans to address AF’s problems; and understand the problems of people like themselves. •  Half (50%) support women having more freedom. 17
  18. 18. Summary of Key Findings •  •  •  •  •  •  •  Most respondents indicated that they would not be induced to vote for an endorsed candidate or such an endorsement would not matter. Fully 85% said they would not be swayed by President Karzai’s endorsement or it would not matter. However, 58 percent said they would consider voting for a candidate that a family member supports. Security (49%) tops the list of the most important issues the new president must address followed by economic issues (17%) and education (6%). A sizable majority (61%) would vote for a candidate who wants to negotiate with the Taliban. An even larger majority (71%) would vote for a candidate who wants positive relations with the U.S.. Overall, 40% think it important that candidates should want to keep some international troops in AF after 2014; 51% think it important that candidates want to maintain good relations with Pakistan. 18
  19. 19. Summary of Key Findings •  A large majority (89%) said that they would not vote for a candidate with a history of corruption. •  Similarly, 78% indicated that they would not vote for a candidate with a history of human rights violations. 19
  20. 20. Summary of Key Findings Importance/Fairness of Election •  A majority (60%) have heard a lot about the presidential election. Only 8% have heard nothing. •  Radio is the most common source of information about the election (47% get “a lot” of information from it) followed by family members, TV, and friends and neighbors. In contrast, only 2% indicated they get “a lot” of information about the election from religious leaders. •  Respondents resoundingly indicated that it is very important (96%) to elect their leader. Similarly, 86% said that elections are Islamic; only 2% opined that elections are un-Islamic. •  Most respondents are at least somewhat clear about the presidential election process. However a third do not understand the process at all. •  However, most (79%) understand the process for voting on Election Day “very well.” •  Most respondents (55%) opined that it is “very important” that their vote is confidential. And, a majority of respondents (53%) are “very confident” their vote will be confidential. 20
  21. 21. Summary of Key Findings •  Most respondents (77%) indicated some confidence that the election will be fair and transparent. About a quarter (23%) are “very confident” and about half (54%) are a “little confident”. •  Most respondents (65%) are familiar with the Independent Elections Commission (IEC). Of those who are familiar with it, about a quarter (24%) are “very confident” it will manage the elections effectively and fairly; 51% have “a little” confidence. •  Almost half of respondents (47%) are familiar with the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC). A little over a quarter (28%) are “very confident” that it will resolve complaints fairly. Concerns About Violence •  About half of respondents are concerned about violence in their districts prior to the election and on Election Day. •  Fully 45% are either “very” or “a little” concerned about violence in the days leading up to the election and 53% are either “very” or “a little” concerned about violence occurring in their districts on Election Day. 21
  22. 22. Summary of Key Findings •  However, only 13% indicated that a threat of violence in their districts would keep them from voting. •  About a third (35%) of respondents are either “very” or “a little” concerned about violence occurring after the election. Most (60%) are not concerned about violence after the election. 22
  23. 23. Main Survey Findings By Question 23
  24. 24. News About the Elections A majority (60%) have heard “a lot” about the presidential election. Only 8% have heard “nothing”. However, fewer respondents in the southern region have heard “a lot” about the election than in other regions. Q1. Have you heard a lot, a little, or nothing about the 2014/1393 presidential election? 70 62 60 61 57 60 51 50 40 33 32 32 30 32 30 19 20 11 8 10 7 5 0 Total North South A lot A little East West Nothing 24
  25. 25. News About the Elections Radio is the most common source of information about the election (47% get “a lot” of information from it) followed by family members, TV, and friends and neighbors. In contrast, only 2% indicated they get “a lot” of information about the election from religious leaders. (Asked only of those who have heard “a lot” or “a little” about the 2014/1393 presidential election in Q1) Q2. I’m going to read a list of ways some people get information about elections. For each one, please tell me whether you have heard a lot, a little, or nothing about the election from each item. 100 92 87 90 95 84 80 70 60 50 47 41 40 38 32 30 48 45 42 41 30 32 29 27 22 45 26 20 15 17 20 10 10 2 2 1 5 0 5 1 0 A lot A little Nothing Radio Family members Television Friends & neighbors Candidate ads Elders Religious leaders Internet Newpapers SMS 25
  26. 26. News About the Elections Sources of information about the election vary by region. For example, only 7% of respondents in the southern region get information from television compared to 42% in the eastern region. (Asked only of those who have heard “a lot” or “a little” about the 2014/1393 presidential election in Q1) Q2. I’m going to read a list of ways some people get information about elections. For each one, please tell me whether you have heard a lot, a little, or nothing about the election from each item. Radio 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Television 63 47 100 47 46 39 38 15 39 37 30 45 16 32 20 29 17 20 7 42 38 7 13 20 47 30 23 0 Total North A lot A little South Nothing East Don't know A little 43 39 18 47 34 19 70 43 36 21 9 North A lot Nothing East West Don't know 60 60 45 50 40 30 50 32 22 2424 23 16 20 Total South Tribal elders 36 16 North A lot 55 4242 Total West Friends and family 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 40 53 48 60 17 13 80 80 A little South Nothing East Don't know West 3436 28 41 36 23 10 0 Total North A lot A little South Nothing East West Don't know 26
  27. 27. Most Popular Candidates Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay has a 4-point lead over Doctor Abdullah Abdullah (29% compared to 25%, respectively). All other candidates are below 10%. About one in ten likely voters (11%) is undecided. Candidate   Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay   Doctor Abdullah Abdullah   Abdul Qayoom Karzai   Professor Abdulrab Rasool Sayaf   Zalmay Rasool   Abdul Rahim Wardak   Mohammad Shafiq Gul Agha Sherzay   Engineer Qutbodin Helal   Prefer not to answer   Mohammad Dawood Sultan Zoy   Mohammad Nadir Nayeem   Hedayat Amin Arsala   Do not Know/not sure   Total   Q3. Next, if the election for president of Afghanistan were held today, for whom would you vote?   %   29   25   8   6   6   5   4   2   2   1   1   *   11   100   *=Less than .5% 27
  28. 28. Most Popular Candidates Respondents who were undecided or preferred not to say who they might vote for were asked if there is a candidate for whom they might vote. Answers to this question indicate respondents who “lean” toward voting for a candidate. When responses to Q3 and Q4 are combined, Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay remains in the lead with 30% followed by Doctor Abdullah Abdullah at 26%. Candidate   Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay   Doctor Abdullah Abdullah   Abdul Qayoom Karzai   Professor Abdulrab Rasool Sayaf   Zalmay Rasool   Abdul Rahim Wardak   Mohammad Shafiq Gul Agha Sherzay   Engineer Qutbodin Helal   Mohammad Dawood Sultan Zoy   Mohammad Nadir Nayeem   Hedayat Amin Arsala   Do not Know/not sure   Prefer not to answer   Total   Q3. Next, if the election for president of Afghanistan were held today, for whom would you vote?   %   29   25   8   6   6   5   4   2   1   1   *   11   2   100   [Asked only of those who answered "don’t know" or "prefer not to answer" in Q3 and Q4 Combined   Q3] Q4. Is there a candidate you might vote for?   %   %   8   30   13   26   4   9     1 6   6   7   1   5   *   4     1 3   0   1   2   1   1   *     46 6   17   2   100   100   *=Less than .5% 28
  29. 29. Most Popular Candidates – “Soft” Support More than a third of respondents indicated they might vote for a different candidate than the person they selected in the previous questions (3% said “yes” and 32% said “maybe”) which indicates a level of “soft” support or support that could change. Among candidates, Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay’s support is the most firm with 70% of the respondents who indicated that they will vote for him and saying they will not change their minds before the April election. (Asked only of those who selected a candidate in Q3 or Q4.) Q5. Do you think you might change your mind and vote for a different candidate in April?   Response choices   %   Yes   3   Maybe   32   No   63   Prefer not to answer   2   Total   100   Q5. Do you think you might change your mind and vote for a different candidate in April?   Prefer Candidate selected in Q3 or Yes   Maybe   No   not to answer   Q4   %   %   %   %   Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay   3   24   70   3   Doctor Abdullah Abdullah   5   32   61   2   Abdul Qayoom Karzai   2   29   63   6   Professor Abdulrab Rasool Sayaf   2   47   51   0   Engineer Qutbodin Helal   4   35   61   0   Zalmay Rasool   2   45   50   3   Abdul Rahim Wardak   1   33   66   0   Mohammad Dawood Sultan Zoy   9   51   40   0   Mohammad Shafiq Gul Agha Sherzay   2   40   58   0   Mohammad Nadir Nayeem   7   53   40   0   Hedayat Amin Arsala   0   32   68   0   29
  30. 30. Most Popular Candidates - Gender Males and females support candidates in similar percentages indicating no discernable gender gap. Females tend to favor the two frontrunners (Ahmadzay and Abdullah) slightly more frequently than males. Gender   Candidate Selected in Q3 or Q4   Male   Female   %   %   Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay   29   32   Doctor Abdullah Abdullah   Abdul Qayoom Karzai   25   9   28   8   Zalmay Rasool   7   6   7   6   6   4   Mohammad Shafiq Gul Agha Sherzay   5   3   Engineer Qutbodin Helal   Mohammad Dawood Sultan Zoy   3   1   2   1   Mohammad Nadir Nayeem   1   *   Hedayat Amin Arsala   *   6   *   7   2   2   100   100   Professor Abdulrab Rasool Sayaf   Abdul Rahim Wardak   Do not Know/not sure   Prefer not to answer   Total   30
  31. 31. Most Popular Candidates - Regions Support for candidates varies by region. Frontrunner Ahmadzay’s support tends to be located in the northern and eastern regions while, for example, Karzai’s support is largely in the southern region. Candidate   North   %   Region   South   %   East   %   West   %   Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay   31   18   36   17   Doctor Abdullah Abdullah   41   15   20   28   Abdul Qayoom Karzai   Professor Abdulrab Rasool Sayaf   Engineer Qutbodin Helal   2   2   1   31   4   9   20   3   Zalmay Rasool   Abdul Rahim Wardak   9   3   *   0   3   3   0   8   5   4   8   8   1   3   2   0   *   18   4   1   1   *   *   1   1   6   3   100   0   5   3   100   *   4   2   100   2   13   1   100   Mohammad Dawood Sultan Zoy   Mohammad Shafiq Gul Agha Sherzay   Mohammad Nadir Nayeem   Hedayat Amin Arsala   Do not Know/not sure   Prefer not to answer   Total   31
  32. 32. Most Popular Candidates – Second Choice Respondents were asked whom they would vote for president, if they could not vote for their preferred candidate. Again, Ahmadzay and Abdullah are neck and neck (21% and 20%, respectively) as the second choice candidate. Q6. Let’s say your top choice is no longer available to vote for in the elections. Who would be your second choice as president among the remaining candidates?   Candidate   %   Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay   21   Doctor Abdullah Abdullah   20   Abdul Qayoom Karzai   Zalmay Rasool   9   9   Abdul Rahim Wardak   8   Professor Abdulrab Rasool Sayaf   7   Mohammad Shafiq Gul Agha Sherzay   5   Engineer Qutbodin Helal   2   Mohammad Dawood Sultan Zoy   1   Mohammad Nadir Nayeem   1   Hedayat Amin Arsala   *   Do not Know/not sure   13   Prefer not to answer   Total   4   100   32
  33. 33. Voter Preferences – Tribal and Ethnic Affiliations A majority of respondents (63%) prefer the presidential and vicepresidential candidates be from different tribes or ethnic groups. A third (34%) say tribal or ethnic affiliation does not matter. Q7a. Should the presidential and vice-presidential candidates be from different tribes or ethnic groups, the same tribe or ethnic group, or does it not matter? 70 63 60 50 40 34 30 20 10 2 1 0 Different tribes or ethnic groups Same tribe or ethnic group Does not matter Don't know 33
  34. 34. Voter Preferences – Tribal and Ethnic Affiliations Fully 84% of respondents indicate that they would vote for a candidate from a different tribe or ethnic group than their own or it would not matter if the candidate was from a different tribe or ethnic group. Another 15% said they might vote for a candidate from a different tribe or ethnic group. Q7b. Would you vote for a candidate for president who is from a tribe or ethnic group that is different from yours, or would it not matter? 60 57 50 40 27 30 20 16 10 0 0 Yes Maybe No Would not matter 34
  35. 35. Voter Preferences – Vote for a Female Candidate Most respondents (59%) would or might vote for a female candidate for president. Fully 82% would or might vote for a candidate who asked a woman to run as vice-president. 70 Q7c. Would you ever vote for a female candidate for president? Q7d. If a candidate for president asked a woman to run as a vice president, would you vote for that presidential candidate, or not? 59 60 50 42 40 36 30 23 20 17 16 10 4 2 1 0 Yes Maybe No Don't know Prefer not to answer Q7c. Vote for a female presidential candidate Q7d. Vote for a candidate who asked a woman to run as vice-president 35
  36. 36. Voter Preferences – Vote for a Female Candidate Females are much more likely than males to consider voting for a female presidential candidate (23% and 68%, respectively) and to vote for a presidential candidate who asked a female to run as vice-president (46% and 77%, respectively). Q7c. Would you ever vote for a female candidate for president? Q7d. If a candidate for president asked a woman to run as a vice president, would you vote for that presidential candidate, or not? 80 68 70 90 60 50 70 40 30 77 80 48 60 23 24 50 19 20 40 9 10 4 3 1 1 0 Yes 46 Maybe No Male Don't know Prefer not to answer Female 29 30 23 15 20 6 10 2 2 0 Yes Maybe Male No Don't know Female 36
  37. 37. Most Popular Candidates – Who Will Win? Asked whom they think will win the presidential election regardless whom they support, a plurality of respondents (26%) said Ahmadzay will win. However, 3 in 10 (30 percent) are not sure whom will win. Q8. Regardless of whom you support, who do you think will win the presidential elections scheduled for April 5, 2014?   Candidate   %   Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay   26   Doctor Abdullah Abdullah   21   Abdul Qayoom Karzai   6   Zalmay Rasool   4   Professor Abdulrab Rasool Sayaf   4   Abdul Rahim Wardak   3   Mohammad Shafiq Gul Agha Sherzay   2   Engineer Qutbodin Helal   1   Mohammad Dawood Sultan Zoy   1   Mohammad Nadir Nayeem   *   Hedayat Amin Arsala   *   Do not Know/not sure   30   Prefer not to answer   Total   2   100   37
  38. 38. Voter Preferences – Most Important Issues for New President to Address Security (49%) tops the list of the most important issue the new president must address followed by economic issues (17%) and education (6%). Q8a. Next, what is the most important issue the next president of Afghanistan must address? Security issues Economic issues Improve education Government reform; corruption Provide basic necessities Women's issues Equality; rule of law; human rights; justice Solve country's problems Remove/punish/monitor foreigners Unite AF Negotiate with Taliban Improve transportation Develop mining Agricultural issues Pakistan Islamic principles; sharia law Health care Defeat/remove Taliban Don't Know 49 17 6 6 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 38
  39. 39. Voter Preferences – Second Most Important Issue for New President to Address Three in ten (30%) of respondents named economic issues as the second most important issue the new president must address; security is the next most mentioned issue (22%) followed by education (10%). Q8b. Next, what is the second most important issue the next president of Afghanistan must address? (open ended) Economic issues Security issues Improve education Government reform; corruption Provide basic necessities Equality; rule of law; human rights; justice Unite AF Women's issues Solve country's problems Negotiate with Taliban Improve transportation Develop mining Agricultural issues Remove/punish/monitor foreigners Pakistan Maintain positive relations with other countries Islamic principles; sharia law Illegal drugs Health care Defeat/remove Taliban Don't know 30 22 10 7 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 39
  40. 40. Voter Preferences – Candidate Qualities Majorities of respondents want a presidential candidate to have experience in international relations (85%) and have a college education (86%). Only 21% indicate they would like the candidate to be younger than 50 years old, although for most (63%) it does not matter. Q9. I’d like to ask you about some traits that a presidential candidate may or may not have. Should a presidential candidate [INSERT ITEM], or does it not matter? 100 90 86 85 80 70 63 60 50 40 30 21 20 15 10 7 4 10 4 2 1 2 0 Yes No Q9a. International relations Does not matter Be young (less than age 50) Don't know Have a college education 40
  41. 41. Voter Preferences – Candidate Qualities Majorities of respondents consider it important that a candidate listens to all sides of an issue before making decisions; provides specific plans to address AF’s problems; and understand the problems of people like you. Half (50%) support women having more freedom. Q10a-f. Next, is it important, not important, or does it not matter if a presidential candidate [INSERT ITEM]? Understands the problems of people like you 95 Provides specific plans to address AF's problems 99 Wants good relations with Pakistan 36 43 14 30 Listens to all sides of issues before making decisions 25 87 Supports women having more freedom 10% Does not matter 20% 30 30% 40% Don't know 3 2 6 4 3 50 0% Not important 1 0 46 Wants to keep some international troops in AF beyond 2014 Important 121 50% 60% 18 70% 80% 90% 2 100% Prefer not to answer 41
  42. 42. Voter Preferences – Candidate Qualities Women are much more likely than men to indicate that it is important for a presidential candidate to support women having more freedom (36% and 69%, respectively). Men and women tended to see eye-to-eye on other items in this battery of questions. Q10a. Next, is it important, not important, or does it not matter if a presidential candidate supports women having more freedom such as working outside of the home. 80 69 70 60 50 40 36 40 30 22 16 20 14 10 2 1 0 Important Not important Does not matter Male Don't know Female 42
  43. 43. Voter Preferences – Candidate Qualities Overall, 40% think it important that candidates should want to keep some international troops in AF but by region this varies from 19% in the south compared to 51% in the north. A slight majority (51%) think it important that candidates want good relations with Pakistan. This opinion is highest in the South (68%) and lowest (40%) in the East. Q10c. Next, is it important, not important, or does it not matter if a presidential candidate wants to keep some international troops in Afghanistan beyond 2014? 60 80 56 50 44 43 50 25 32 31 28 23 20 25 23 19 20 40 20 10 2 1 Important North Not important South East Does not matter 43 40 42 36 34 25 21 25 14 12 3 1 3 4 2 1 10 4 1 2 1 0 2 Total 0 Total 46 30 10 2 62 60 43 40 30 68 70 51 30 Q10d. Next, is it important, not important, or does it not matter if a presidential candidate wants good relations with Pakistan? North South East West West Don't know Important Not important Don't know Does not matter Prefer not to answer 43
  44. 44. Voter Preferences – Candidate Qualities A large majority (89%) said that they would not vote for a candidate with a history corruption. Similarly, 78% indicated that they would not vote for a candidate with history of human rights violations. Responses to these questions varied by region with, for example, almost a quarter (23%) of northern respondents indicating that they would either vote for a candidate with human rights violations or it would not matter Q11a. Would you vote for a candidate who has a history of human rights violations, or would it not matter? Q11c. Would you vote for a candidate who has a history of corruption or bribery, or would it not matter? 100 100 86 90 80 90 81 80 78 70 91 89 80 70 60 74 70 50 93 90 60 40 50 30 20 10 10 4 15 5 3 8 4 3 3 3 9 8 2 6 40 11 3 3 3 2 30 20 0 Total North South East West 20 10 Yes No Would not matter Don't know Prefer not to answer 4 4 21 1 5 1 2 4 1 1 3 3 2 2 1 3 3 0 Total Yes No North Would not matter South Don't know East West Prefer not to answer 44
  45. 45. Voter Preferences – Candidate Qualities A sizable majority (61%) would vote for a candidate who wants to negotiate with the Taliban, and an even larger majority (71%) would vote for a candidate who wants positive relations with the U.S.. Q11b. Would you vote for a candidate who wants to negotiate with the Taliban, or would it not matter? 100 Q11d. Would you vote for a candidate who wants positive relations with the United States, or would it not matter? 90 90 84 81 87 80 71 80 66 70 70 64 61 57 60 60 52 50 50 50 40 40 28 30 20 18 28 21 20 21 17 14 6 7 10 1 1 30 16 20 3 1 North Yes No South Would not matter East Don't know West 18 13 14 10 10 2 0 Total 21 18 3 2 4 11 2 5 0 0 Total Yes No North Would not matter South Don't know East West Prefer not to answer 45
  46. 46. Voter Preferences - Endorsements Candidate endorsements would not prompt most respondents to vote for the endorsed candidate or it simply would not matter to them. Fully 85% said they would not be swayed by President Karzai’s endorsement or it would not matter. However, 58 percent said they would consider voting for a candidate that a family member supports. Q12a-­‐e.  If  [INSERT  ITEM]  supported  a  specific  presiden>al  candidate,  would  you  consider  vo>ng  for  that   candidate  or  who  it  not  maGer  who  [INSERT  ITEM]  supported? Your family 58 Your friends 21 30 Your Tribal Elders 32 25 Your Mullah 12 President Karzai 0 Yes 26 No 20 47 20 62 14 10 5 71 20 1 0 36 20 7 20 30 Would not matter 40 50 Don't know 6 60 70 80 90 1 2 100 Prefer not to answer 46
  47. 47. Importance/Fairness of Elections - Transparency Most (77%) respondents are at least somewhat confident that the upcoming presidential election would be fair and transparent. About a quarter (23%) are “very confident” that the election will be fair and transparent; more than half (54%) mentioned being “a little confident” in the election’s fairness and transparency. Q13. Next, are you very confident, a little confident or not confident at all that the elections scheduled for April 5, 2014 will be fair and transparent? 60 54 50 40 30 23 20 15 8 10 0 Very confident A little confident Not confident at all Don't know 47
  48. 48. Importance/Fairness of Elections - IEC Most respondents (65%) are familiar with the Independent Elections Commission (IEC). Men are more likely than women to be familiar with the IEC (71% and 56%, respectively). Of those who are familiar with the IEC, about a quarter (24%) are “very confident” it will manage the elections effectively and fairly; 51% have “a little” confidence. (Asked only of those who answered “yes” in Q14a) Q14b. Are you very confident, a little confident, or not at all confident that the Independent Election Commission or IEC will manage the elections effectively and fairly? Q14a. Are you familiar with the Independent Election Commission or IEC? Don't know 8% 60 51 50 No 27% 40 30 24 21 Yes 65% 20 10 4 0 Very confident A little confident Not at all confident Don't know 48
  49. 49. Importance/Fairness of Elections - IEC About half of respondents (47%) are familiar with the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC). Similar to the question about familiarity with the IEC, men are more familiar with the ECC than women (52% to 40%, respectively). Of those who are familiar with the ECC, 28% are “very confident” that it will resolve complaints about the election fairly. (Asked only of those who answered “yes” in Q15a). Q15b. Are you very confident, a little confident, or not at all confident that the Electoral Complaints Commission or ECC will fairly resolve complaints regarding the election or electoral process? Q15a. Are you familiar with the Electoral Complaints Commission or ECC? Don't know 8% Prefer not to answer 1% 50 45 45 40 Yes 47% 35 30 No 44% 28 25 21 20 15 10 6 5 0 Very confident A little confident Not at all confident Don't know 49
  50. 50. Importance/Fairness of Elections – Understanding the Electoral Process Most respondents are at least somewhat clear about the presidential election process (36% said they understand the process “very well.”). However a third do not understand the process at all. Men are more likely than women to understand the electoral process with 40% of men answering “very well” compared to 30% of women. Q16. Overall, do you understand the presidential election process very well, a little bit, or not at all? Male/Female Split 50 40 45 36 33 35 40 29 30 43 40 35 33 30 30 25 25 26 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 2 1 0 Very well 0 Very well A little bit Not at all Don't know 3 A little bit Male Not at all Don't know Female 50
  51. 51. Importance/Fairness of Elections – Understanding the Electoral Process Most (79%) respondents do understand the process for voting on Election Day “very well”, although respondents in the southern region were less likely to understand the voting process than those in other regions. Q17. Do you understand the process for voting on Election Day very well, a little bit, or not at all? 90 80 85 80 79 70 76 64 60 50 40 28 30 20 18 20 17 14 8 10 3 4 3 1 0 Total North South Very well A little bit East West Not at all 51
  52. 52. Importance/Fairness of Elections – Where to Vote Most respondents (83%) provided an answer when asked where people in their areas go to vote. Overall, this suggests that most voters know where to vote. If they know where to vote then they are more likely to vote. Q18. Where do people in your area go to vote? 100 90 88 84 83 85 82 78 80 71 70 60 50 40 28 30 20 16 14 Total Male 20 17 14 12 10 0 Female Provided an answer North Don't know South East West Prefer not to answer 52
  53. 53. Importance/Fairness of Elections – Voting Attitudes Respondents resoundingly indicated that it is very important (96%) to elect their leader. Similarly, 86% said that elections are Islamic; only 2% opined that elections are un-Islamic. Women are more likely than men to indicate that elections are Islamic (81% and 91%, respectively). Q19. Do you think it is very important, a little important, or not important at all that Afghans elect their leader? A little important 3% Not important at all 1% Q20. Some people feel that elections are un-Islamic, while others feel that they are Islamic. What is your opinion on this topic? In general, are elections Islamic or un-Islamic? 100 90 91 86 81 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 14 9 10 Very important 96% 2 1 3 6 3 2 2 0 Elections are Islamic Elections are unIslamic Total Male Don't know Prefer not to answer Female 53
  54. 54. Importance/Fairness of Elections – Electoral Confidentiality Most respondents (55%) opined that it is “very important” that their vote is confidential. And, most respondents (53%) are “very confident” their vote will be confidential. Q21. No one is supposed to know for whom a person has voted. Is it very important, a little important, or not important at all that no one knows for whom a person has voted? 60 Q22. Are you very confident, a little confident, or not confident at all that no one will know for whom you voted? 60 55 53 50 50 40 40 36 30 30 23 18 20 20 10 4 8 10 1 0 Very important A little important Not important at all Don't know 2 0 Very confident A little confident Not confident Don't know at all Prefer not to answer 54
  55. 55. Importance/Fairness of Elections – Concerns About Violence Fully 45% of respondents are either “very” or at least “a little” concerned about violence in the days leading up to the election. Concerns about violence are highest in the south. Similarly, 53% are either “very” or “a little” concerned about violence occurring in their districts on Election Day. Again, concerns are highest in the south. Q24. What about on Election Day? Are you very concerned, a little concerned, or not at all concerned about violence occurring in your district on Election Day? Q23. Violence can be used to influence people. Are you very concerned, a little concerned, or not concerned at all about violence occurring in your district on the days leading up to the election? 70 70 60 60 54 55 54 50 50 40 33 30 32 31 35 33 20 30 18 15 10 1 2 0 1 North South East 48 46 2627 29 27 32 29 24 18 14 4 17 10 0 Total 46 20 8 7 53 40 28 30 58 60 West Very concerned A little concerned Not at all concerned Don't know 1 1 3 1 0 0 Total North South East West Very concerned A little concerned Not at all concerned Don't know 55
  56. 56. Importance/Fairness of Elections – Concerns About Violence Only 13% of respondents indicated that a threat of violence in their districts would keep them from voting on Election Day. However, 22% of respondents in the southern region said a threat of violence would prevent them from voting compared to only 6% in the western region. Q25. Would a threat of violence in your district on Election Day keep you from voting on Election Day? 80 74 69 70 64 63 60 46 50 40 30 30 22 20 23 22 19 17 13 14 11 10 6 3 1 2 1 0 0 Total North Yes South No Don't know East West Prefer not to answer 56
  57. 57. Importance/Fairness of Elections – Concerns About Violence A majority of respondents (60%) are not concerned about violence occurring after the elections. About a third (35%) are. However, 56% of respondents in the western region indicated they are either “very” or “a little” concerned. Q26. After the election, some people use violence as revenge if they do not like the election results. Are you very concerned, a little concerned, or not at all concerned that violence will occur in your district soon after the election? 80 67 70 60 62 58 60 50 42 40 27 30 26 20 10 25 14 8 24 14 11 5 2 6 3 2 38 6 0 Total North Very concerned South A little concerned East Not at all concerned West Don't know 57
  58. 58. Importance/Fairness of Elections – Prior Voting Fully 58% of respondents said they voted in the 2009 presidential election. Of those who did not vote in 2009, a plurality said they were too young in 2009 (31%) and another 30% indicated that they had no voter registration card. Q27. Now, I’d like you to think back to the 2009 presidential election. There are many reasons why people do or do not vote in elections. Did you vote in the 2009/1388 presidential elections or did you not vote? Q28. What was the main reason you did not vote in the 2009/1388 presidential elections? Too young 31 No registration card 30 Personal issues/too busy/out of town 11 Security/fear of violence No 42% 10 Did not want to vote Yes 58% 5 Prefer not to answer 4 No election/polling place 3 Forbidden by husband/family 2 Other 3 Don't know 1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 58
  59. 59. Importance/Fairness of Elections – Prior Voting An almost identical percentage said they voted in the 2010 Parliamentary election as voted in the 2009 Presidential Elections. This is not an unusual response given that this is a survey of likely voters. Q29. Did you vote in the 2010 election for members of Parliament? Don't know 1% Yes 41% No 58% 59
  60. 60. Core –  Developed Demographics 60
  61. 61. Demographics – Gender and Age Fully 57% of respondents were male. A larger percentage of males are in the sample because more males than females are registered to vote. Respondents tended to be younger with 54% under age 30. Age Gender 60 54 50 40 Female, 43 Male, 57 30 25 20 13 10 6 2 0 17-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+ 61
  62. 62. Demographics - Education Some 40% of respondents have never attended school. Only 47% have received any formal schooling (primary/secondary) whatsoever, with just 19% finishing secondary school. Just 1% were educated in a Madrassa. D5. What is the highest level of education you have completed? Never went to school 40 Finished some primary school 12 7 Finished primary school Finished some secondary school 9 Finished secondary school 19 6 Finished 2-year college Finished 4-year college 4 Finished graduate school 1 Finished Madrassa 1 Home schooled 1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 62
  63. 63. Demographics – Household Monthly Incomes Fully 28% of respondents have monthly incomes of 10,000 Afghanis or less; 21% have no income. •  Note: An income of 10,000 Afghanis equals about 200 USD. Prefer not to answer 5% Less than 5000 Afghanis 11% Don't know 8% 5001- 10,000 Afghanis 17% No income 21% More than 20000 Afghanis 8% 10001-15000 Afghanis 18% 15001-20000 Afghanis 12% 63
  64. 64. Demographics - Occupation Housewife (does not work outside of the home) is the most common occupation (30%). A quarter (25%) are unemployed. D7. What do you do for a living? Housewife 30 Unemployed 25 Business owner 9 Work for government 8 Farmer 7 NGO worker 5 Teacher 5 Student 5 Other 5 Prefer not to answer 1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 64
  65. 65. Demographics - Ethnicity A plurality of respondents (40%) indicated they are Pashtun; 36% said Tajik. Fully 12 ethnicities are represented in the sample. Ethnic group   %   Pashtun   40   Tajik   36   Hazara   10   Uzbek   8   Aymaq   2   Pashaye   1   Arab   1   Nuristani   1   Turkmen   1   Baloch   *   Kirgiz   *   Kochis   *   Other   *   65
  66. 66. Demographics - Language Dari is spoken most frequently among respondents Language   %   Dari   50   Pashto   40   Uzbeki   8   Pashaye   1   Turkmani   1   Balochi   *   Nuristani   *   66
  67. 67. For an electronic (soft) copy of this report plus the survey methods report and supporting survey data please visit: voteafghanistan.com 67
  68. 68. For more information, please contact: Alicia Boyd Vice President of Research Alicia.boyd@glevumusa.com 68

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