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Mwc Tipping Pointv1


LTE Tipping Point

LTE Tipping Point

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  • The company says in its “State of the Mobile Web” quarterly report being released today that visits to social networks comprise almost 41 percent of all mobile web traffic. In the U.S., South Africa and Indonesia, more than 60 percent of the traffic goes to social networks. Nearly a quarter of all worldwide mobile traffic goes to search engines and content portals. The data is useful to anyone following the growth of social networks on cell phones
  • Buffering and faster-than- real-time transmission allow for easy compensation for any packet losses or jitter YouTube, which appear to do streaming, are in fact using progressive downloads with faster-than-real-time transfers. The bottom line is that if one has a transmission link with capacity higher than the live signal rate, and one can tolerate some buffering, then using the standard TCP that handles congestion well works to provide high quality.
  • Communications is Changing Users are spending hours a day connected to richer websites and less on IM tools (AOL IM down 4% in 2008) IM is changing to Embedded IM (Browser-based IM+Email The Facebook Chat toolbar used by 60% of users : 75M users The Internet introduces richer and alternative communication options Sync web contacts with mobile address book Communication and messaging between mobile and Internet Upload content from the mobile to social sites Mashups: Autoconference start a multi-conference when every selected participant is “online” after a concrete date and time Goal “informer” When Barça FC scores a goal, if my friend (Real Madrid supporter) is near me send an IM to him, if not, start a phone call with my friend Messaging Reachability monitor an email account and forward the interesting filtered emails to the mobile (just when out of office) as an SMS or a text-to-speech call when driving monitor an email account and forward the interesting filtered emails to the mobile (just when out of office) as an SMS or a text-to-speech call when driving


  • 1.  
  • 2. What is the Tipping Point for LTE ? Dr. Vish Nandlall CTO Nortel Carrier Networks Mobile World Congress, February 2009 Version 1.0
  • 3. New Market Dynamics B/W x Ux = ROI UX = Enabled User Experience B/W = Per User Session Bandwidth Ux: Time to Download content is less than 1 minute Time to Upload content is less than 1 minute Low Bearer latency Cell edge Performance
  • 4. The Virtuous Cycle of Ux and Bandwidth Increasing dependency on wireless broadband for a compelling Ux “ US carrier revenues for data totaled $14.8 billion for the first six months of 2008. That’s an increase to 20 percent of their total revenue, up from the previous ten percent.” - CTIA Service Penetration, Smart v. Feature Phones, April 2008, US 23% 20% 11% 6% 6% 4% 4% 40% 45% 59% 28% 17% 24% 24% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Photo Messaging Playing Games Browsing Music Video Social Network/Blogs Downloaded Apps Percent Phone Owners Using Service in Month Smartphone FeaturePhone Service Penetration, 3G v. 2.5G Phones, April 2008, US 17% 20% 12% 4% 4% 5% 4% 41% 25% 22% 17% 17% 7% 8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Photo Messaging Playing Games Browsing Music Video Social Network/Blogs Downloaded Apps Percent Phone Owners Using Service in Month 3G 2.5G
  • 5. What defines the “Tipping Point” ?
    • The Broadband Wireless Consumer
    • LTE or HSPA+ ?
    • Next Gen ARPU and Telco 2.0 Business Model
    • Smart phone subscribers represent a new usage profile governed by BW AND Ux
    • 3G data patterns suggest that “effective” spectral efficiency is driven by cell edge. LTE’s reuse properties at cell edge dominate over HSPA/+
    • As to smart phone subscribers increase, an operators ability to attract new revenue models will be limited by when they deploy LTE
  • 6. What is broadband wireless behavior ? ...and how do you engineer a network to support it ? Apple iTunes 1.5 billion YouTube Apple App Store Mobile MySpace 1.5 billion songs downloaded Videos viewed per day 100 million 200 million Downloads in first 100 days Impressions per month 1.5 billion
  • 7. Understanding the Ux for Data Engineering Cell-Edge Beyond Voice Requirements HSPA+ EV-DO UMTS EDGE CDMA 1X GPRS 60 kbps 115 kbps 256 kbps 400 kbps 1.0 Mbps 35 kbps Total Time 11.5 mins 6 mins 2.5 mins 1.5 min 40 secs 10 secs 19.5 mins LTE 4.0 Mbps From Mobile Web 0.1 to 2.0 Cell Edge Rich Web Page MP3 The Impatience Index You can’t have broadband without the user experience ! 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 (MB)
  • 8. What is “real world” Performance ? It’s all about the cell-edge !
    • Peak rate can be a misleading measure of system performance. In reality, users are unlikely to achieve these data rates across a meaningful area except if small cells are deployed
    • Technologies such as fast frequency reuse (FFR) provides superior cell-edge throughput for LTE, thus providing greater “real-world” spectral efficiency relative to HSPA.
    Cell-Edge Cell edge Cell center *Nortel Networks Study LTE Performance vs HSPA & HSPA+ @ 5MHz*
      • For ideal network condition (Full Queue model): LTE is 84%, 50% and 27% more efficient than that of HSPA (with MRxD and MMSE equalization), HSPA+ (with 2X2 MIMO) and HSPA+ (with SIC and 64 QAM), respectively.
      • For realistic network condition (Ultra-Fair model): LTE is 205%, 137% and 106% more efficient than that of HSPA (with out MRxD), HSPA+ (with MMSE equalization, SIC and 64 QAM) and HSPA+ (with 2X2 MIMO), respectively
  • 9. Next Gen Subscriptions Terminal capabilities are raising the stakes ! Entry Broadband 2GB plan @$50/Month (25.74 Kbps/user) Internet & e-mail Basic Broadband 4GB plan @$60/Month (48.11 Kbps/user) Internet & e-mail Multimedia DL/Streaming Advanced Broadband 8GB plan @$80/Month (99.21 Kbps/user) Internet & e-mail Multimedia DL/UL/Streaming Gaming 1.2B Mobile Handsets shipped in 2008 1B Feature Phones shipped in 2008 Over 168M Smart Phones in 2008 iPhone users generate 1.6 times more revenue than the average AT&T customer User Profiles: Advanced User Entry User Basic User
  • 10. The LTE Tipping Point How long can you wait ? Entry BW User Basic BW User Advanced BW User Active Users per Sector Increased Capacity Increased Spectral Efficiency Reduced Latency Average Throughput per Sector for 5 MHZ FDD (Mbps) HSPA HSPA+ LTE Second 3G Carrier in 2010 Joint-analysis of 3G NA penetration, entry vs basic vs advanced profiles with outage criteria, & fair-use spectral efficiency within a single carrier-sector
  • 11. LTE Business Models From “take what you are given” to “take what you want” $$$ Basic Internet Service $ B/W-based Tiered Services Flat Rate Bundles 10% consume 80% of B/w 0.5% consume about 40% of B/w 80% use less than 10% of B/w
      • Context Services
      • Mash Up Services
      • Third Party Services
      • Personal Communication
      • Services
      • Legal Download Services
      • On-Deck Portal Services
      • Security Services
      • On-Demand QoS/BW
      • Navigation
    1. 2. 3. $$ LITE VALUE POWER Enables Telco 2.0 over Enables
  • 12. B/w x Ux = ROI
    • Ux :
    • Very low Time to download
    • Cell edge support for SLAs
    • Low bearer Latency
    • LTE:
    • The Tipping Point is 2010
    • Need to deploy early to intercept smartphone & WID users
    • New revenue opportunities to bridge the GB vs Revenue gap
  • 13.  
  • 14. User Profile Detail 99.219 48.110 25.742 Total DL Throughput per User 3.600 1.60 0.400 Interactive Gaming 20.480 6.83 3.413 Multimedia Download - 30 minute Clip 0.033 0.01 0.004 Multimedia Upload - 2 minute Clip 3.641 2.05 0.910 Multimedia Download - 2 minute Clip 0.240 0.24 0.160 Audio Streaming 2.276 1.59 0.910 FTP Download 15.172 7.12 4.944 Email 53.778 28.67 15.000 Web Browsing Advanced User Basic User Entry User Applications
  • 15. Smartphone US Penetration Rates
  • 16. Addressing the long tail of the market Sales Revenue Services Mobile 2.0 Core Services: Developed in container against enabler APIs Long tail services: customization and usage is driven by loose composition and users: Web 2.0 using widgets and 3rd party applications built on Service Overlay Plethora of short lived applications to try/deploy, update and retire easily. Innovation comes from wide community of developers => Third party services provided by third party as SOA services against enablers APIs (WS/SOA) Trusted Applications in container requiring high performances and “permissions” 3rd party applications requiring lower level of permissions and capabilities Mashups of widgets by third party with Web 2.0 applications
  • 17. Who does what & Who gets what ? Business Model Transition Carrier Opportunity for Channel ARPU Ad Revenues The Great White Hope ? Email Instant Messaging Blogs Social networks/ online forums Competition dynamics
    • Continue to bundle with internet access
    • Match webmail providers’ innovations to limit their market share
    Carrier strategies USA Worldwide
    • After trying to push their own solutions, carriers are now partnering with leading IM providers
    • Still dominated by independent companies but consolidating
    • Consolidation by media companies
    • Isolated initiatives to transform the homepage activitiy
    • No significant initiative apart from SK Telecom’s acquisition of Cyworld and BT’s failed bid of Bebo
  • 18. Breaking the Bandwidth Barrier From Mobile Web 0.5 to Mobile Web 2.0
    • Web2.0 delivers:
      • User generated content
      • Social Networking
      • Web Services (SaaS)
      • Mashups
    • Mobile 2.0 adds:
      • Mobility
      • Location services
      • Anytime, anywhere access.
    Applications in LTE must deliver the personal internet experience Web 1.0 Mobile 2.0 Web 2.0 56Kbps 150MB @ 45min 500Kbps 150MB @ 5min
  • 19. LTE Enables the User eXperience (UX)
    • Higher Peak Data Rates
      • DL : > 100Mb/s in 20MHz spectrum
      • UL : > 50Mb/s in 20MHz spectrum
    • Increased Capacity
      • > 400 simultaneous broadband users/sector (in 20 MHz)
    • Reduced Latency
      • below 10ms radio
      • below 30ms end to end
    • Increased Spectral Efficiency
      • DL : 3-4 times 3G (HSDPA)
      • UL : 2-3 times 3G (HSUPA)
    • Wide range of operating frequencies
      • Scalable bandwidth : 1.4, 3, 5, 10, 15, 20MHz
      • All IMT-2000 frequencies: 450 MHz to 2.6 GHz
    MIMO All-IP OFDM LTE Bridging all 2G/3G Paths – Global Mobile Broadband Choice …
  • 20. What does the mobile Ux mean ? Lifestyle-Enabling Personalized Uniform Service Context-Aware Football Enthusiast “ Tween Mu” Soap Opera Buff Formula 1 Fan Uniform UI Cell Edge Performs as expected My preferences My device My subscriptions My buddies Location Device Capability Presence
  • 21. Application usage is proportional to bandwidth available © COMSCORE M:METRICS 2008
  • 22. Application Usage is Proportional to Ux © COMSCORE M:METRICS 2008