Wisconsin Water Presentation (May 2011   Final)
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Wisconsin Water Presentation (May 2011 Final)

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May 2011 Presentation on potable and wastewater issues and opportunities in Mexico, including detailed market size information

May 2011 Presentation on potable and wastewater issues and opportunities in Mexico, including detailed market size information

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Wisconsin Water Presentation (May 2011 Final) Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Mexico Potable & Wastewater Situation and Opportunities Vincent Lencioni LGA Consulting/Wisconsin Trade Office May 2011 Milwaukee, Wisconsin
  • 2. LGA Water Focus
    • 15+ Years working with Wisconsin companies with products for Mexico public and private water sector
      • Market Analysis, Intermediary and Client Searches
    • 3 years of formal & extensive regional water focus
    • Quarterly Mexico Water Report
    • Development of Mexican Water Intermediary contacts
      • Distributors, Reps, Integrators, EPCs, Consultants
      • Winners of Awards, Participants in Bids
    • Interaction with Mexican federal and local water officials and intermediaries for early project information
    • Monthly compilation & review of water bids & awards
    • WWEMA Presentation, Global Committee, Latin America assistance
    • Development of AWWA Manufacturers Committee, Mexico City
    • Various presentations on Mexico water sector in the US & Mexico
  • 3. Mexico Water Issues & Challenges
    • 1. Geographical Challenges : North (30/87/75) vs South (70/13/25) Altitude, precipitation, population, urban growth issues
    • 2. Overexploited aquifers : 15%; 10% will be soon
    • 3. Per Capita Water : 18,000 m3 (1950) to 4,400 m3 (2010)
    • BUT: 15,000 South; 1700 Central, only 500 North
    • 4. Potable/Sewer Coverage : Urban (94/94) vs Rural (79/63)
    • 5. Water Use : 80% Agri (US: 40%) vs 8% Industrial (US: 46%)
    • 6. Delivery Systems : 50% losses: Potable (43%), Agri (55%)
    • 7. Metering : Domestic (“obligatory”, < 2/3) vs Industrial (0%)
    • 8. Wastewater Treatment : < 40% Municipal; < 20% Industrial
  • 4. Mexico Water Goals: 2012 & 2012
    • 5 Year Plan (2007-2012)
      • Potable water coverage: 92%
        • Current: 91%
      • Sanitary/sewer coverage: 88%
        • Current: 87%
      • Wastewater treatment: 60%
        • Current: 40% (may be)
      • Rehabilitate 500 Dams
        • Current: 420; 750 by 2030
      • 8% increase: utility efficiency
      • Improve Water Productivity in the Agricultural Sector
      • Better flood prevention actions
    • 2030 Water Agenda
      • By 2016: all major urban areas free from risk of flood
      • By 2015, All Irrigation technified, 100% water reuse
      • 2024: Complete rural potable water and sewage access
      • 2025: All Industrial and Municipal wastewater treated
      • 2030: All aquifers and contamination in balance
      • From 64th in water infrastructure to between Panama (46) & Chile (35).
  • 5. Water & Wastewater Regulations
    • Wastewater Regulations
      • By where water goes:
        • NOM 001: Federal bodies
          • Rivers, Lakes, Coasts
          • All towns > 2500 inhabs (2600+) & all companies
        • NOM 002: Municipal
          • Sewer/Drainage System
        • Translations Available
      • Discharge “Rights” Fees
        • If NOM 001: Federal Fees
        • If NOM 002: Local Fees
      • By Reuse
        • NOM 003 = Water Reuse
        • NOM 004 = Sludge/Mud
    • Water Regulations
      • NOM 127
        • Water quality and disinfection rules; treatment options
      • NOM 179
        • Monitoring/sampling
      • NOM 230
        • Storage rules, samples, sanitary restrictions
    • Challenges
      • Metering, Leakage, bottled water trend, enforcement issues
  • 6. Municipal Wastewater Plants
    • 2010: How Much/Where
      • 43.4% Waste Treated
        • 200% increase since 1992
        • 100% Increase since 2000
      • Treatment capacity need: 196m3 = 71m3 deficit
        • 25% capacity increase since 2006
        • Flow Increase: 5% annual
      • Treatment Areas
        • North > 50% treatment
        • Center: 33% treatment
        • 48% Treatment in Río Bravo/Lerma Basins
  • 7. Municipal Treatment Opportunities
    • 2011 Budget and Plant Projects
      • Budget:
      • New: 50 Plants, another 50 expected: Rehab: 43% Plants ($225 million)
      • 2012 - Should be equal or better than 2011 – Year before Presidential Elections
      • 2013 – New Presidential Administration: considerable slow down / adjustments
    • “ In Vogue” Treatment Processes / Tendencies
      • 90% of Municipal Treatment in six categories:
        • Sludge = 46% treatment (546 Plants); Stabilization Ponds = 16% treatment (707 Plants); Advanced Primary = 10% treatment (16 Plants); Aerated Ponds = 8% treatment (32 Plants); Dual Plants (10) & Biological Filters (97) = 10% treatment
        • Plants with significant numbers but low treatment: RAFA/WASB (162), Wetlands (160)
      • New Plants and Plant Growth (2008 to 2009)
        • 1. Biological Filters (55, up 100%+); 2. Aerated Ponds (up 33%);
        • 3. Sludge (92, up 20%); 4. Wetlands (26, Up 20%)
      • Info on state preferences for treatment technology (see LGA Consulting website)
      • Problem – Physical/Chemical used over Biological – driven by upfront costs
    • Medium Size/2nd Tier Cities: Next/Current Targets
      • 8 Cities: 2.5 to 1 million; 20 Cities > 750,000; 30 Cities > 500,000; 45 Cities > 250,000; Over 60 Cities > 100,000 population.
    • Market Size: 5 models/scenarios : $220-546 Million; $357 Million (Median)
  • 8. Industrial Wastewater Treated: Not good but better than seems Up 66% since 1999 Industrial Wastewater since 1997 : Flow up 195% (64.5 to 190m3 p/s) Treated amount up 592% (5.3 to 36.7m3 p/s) Wastewater/BOD Treatment up 137.5% compared to flow (8% to 19%)
  • 9. Industrial Sectors – Problems * = Expected Investment 2011-2012 ( US Embassy, Mexico City ) 4. Chemicals / Pharmaceuticals / Plastics - $120 million US* 4. Food & Beverage / Dairy - $90 million US* 3. Petroleum / Petrochemical (Pemex) – Increasing investments in wastewater 3. Metalworking / Automotive – Large & Growing, Tier 1 & 2 issues, OEM compliant 2. Textile / Clothing / Leather – $70 million US*; many medium & small producers who are not compliant 2. Paper - $70 million US* - Highly regulated, improved Mfging processes, maintenance 1. Pork / Agriculture / Aquaculture – Target area for enforcement, Conagua investment increases. Problems worse than expected 1. Sugar – Requires regular, on-going investments even though meeting standards. High Frequency & Flow Priorities Top Priorities, heaviest polluters (2030)
  • 10. Industrial Wastewater Opportunities
    • Commercial & Industrial – Traditional Wastewater
      • Types of Plants & Technologies
        • Secondary Strong - Activated Sludge, Aeration Lagoons, Extended Aeration
        • Tertiary low but growing (2009: 66 Plants; 2010: 88 Plants = 25 a year?)
    • Industry Water Reuse & Savings
        • Water reclamation, water capturing systems more important with industrial water price increases
    • Infrastructure Projects
        • Resorts: Hotels and Restaurants, Residential and Golf Courses
        • 100 New plants (2011-2014)
    • States & Cities with best enforcement reputations
        • D.F., Monterrey, Chihuahua, Guanajuato, AGS, Queretaro
        • 173 Cities participating in PROSANEAR Program
    • Market Size Estimate: $110-$350 M; Median: $285 M
      • Industrial & Municipal Wastewater Markets > $500 M
  • 11. Potable & Sewerage Coverage
    • Potable: 91%
      • 2012 : 92%; 2030 : 100
      • Urban: 95 (05), 94 (09)
      • Rural: 72 (05), 79 (09)
        • 90: 51%, 2000: 68%
      • 8 states (25%) < 90%
      • Veracruz, Guerrero < 80%
    • “ Non-Drinking” Challenge
      • Bottled water tendency
    • Delivery System Pollution
    • Sewerage: 87%
      • 2012 : 88%; 2030 : 100
      • Urban: 89 (05), 94 (09)
      • Rural: 58 (05), 63 (09)
        • 90: 18%, 2000: 37%
      • 7 states (15%) < 80%
      • 19 states (60%) < 90%
    • System Competitiveness
      • 20% < Latam standard
        • Just below Peru
  • 12. Other Clean Water Issues
    • Potable Plants: 650+
      • 2/3 Convention Clarification
      • 90 m3/second treatment
    • Disinfection Coverage
      • 1991: 84%; 2009: 97%
    • Infectuous Diseases
      • Increased Problems with Tyfoid, Salmonela
    • Water Monitoring
      • 1500: Subterr/Bodies
      • 2000:BOD, COD, TSS
    • Aqueducts
      • Veracruz, Cutzamala, Nuevo Leon, Jalisco
    • Dams & Reservoirs
      • Rehabs: 420 to 750
    • Hydroagriculture
      • Inefficient / Low fees
    • Altitude Challenges
      • 1600 to 2700 meters
    • Aquifer Replacement & Water Reclamation
  • 13. Clean Water Opportunities
    • Municipal – Low Prices, Non-Drinkage Challenges
      • Total Water Budget: $6 Billion US; Federal Budget: $3 Billion US
        • 80% for urban projects; 62% given to State and Municipal governments
        • 50% for Potable (40%), Sewerage (50%), and Treatment Projects(10%);
        • 20% for HydroAgriculture Projects, up 60% in recent years and should continue to increase
        • Spending Increases: Since 2002: 250%; Since 2007: 70%; Spending increases expected
      • “ In Vogue” Technologies
        • Convention Clarification
        • Others: Direct Filtration (15-20% treated, 10% plants); Patent Clarification (7% treated, 20% Plants); Reverse Osmosis (<5% treated, 30% Plants)
        • Minor Presence: Slow Filters, Iron & Manganese, Blandment, Absorption
      • Needs: Monitoring, Delivery System Leakage, Water Efficiency (Agri), Metering, Aquifer restoration, Flooding, Reclamation, Testing
      • Northern and Central state focus – Scarcity and Aquifer Depletion and Advanced Culture
    • Industrial – Higher Prices, Greater Need, easier targets
      • Some but lower clean water & high purity demand: 46% vs 8%
      • High use: Paper, Sugar, Agriculture, F&B, Chemicals
    • Total Market Size Estimate: Harder to Establish than wastewater
  • 14. Tips for Mexico Opportunities
    • Get in/stay in, despite insecurity concerns
      • Demand Up : Economic Growth & Funding Up
        • Water Sector: 70% Imported, 2/3 from the US
        • Municipal : 2011 and 2012 up; 2013 down
        • Industrial : Locate proactive states/cities: target companies
    • Find in-country sales support…..
      • Ideally: Sales Staff or Rep + Integrators
      • Distributors – Viable in Private, not in Public
    • … but don`t rely solely on intemediaries for market analysis or business development
    • Bring financing/credit plan: Private > Public