It’s the end of the (startup) world as we know it and you should feel fine. Calit2 - University of California Irvine Feb 3...
Startup Empowerment Lower cost Easier Money Global Social Savvy
The End of the (Startup) World  As We Know It <ul><li>100s of thousands of Entrepreneurs </li></ul><ul><li>Capital to serv...
3 Popular Startup Philosophies Be Like Steve (Jobs) Just Do It Lean Startups
Why Lean Startups?
<ul><li>The vast majority of startups fail NOT because they couldn’t build a product, but because no one wanted the produc...
<ul><li>“ The vast majority of successful [startups] abandoned their initial plans and  learned  what would and would not ...
<ul><li>The problem and the solution are UNKNOWN </li></ul><ul><li>Your business model will change </li></ul><ul><li>You h...
Product + Customer Development
Philosophy
Question your assumptions  Get out of the building Iterate through learning
Lean Startups & Market Assessments <ul><li>Top-Down Approach </li></ul><ul><li>and </li></ul><ul><li>Bottom-Up Approach </...
Lean Startups & Market Assessments <ul><li>Is your objective: </li></ul><ul><li>Writing a Business Plan? </li></ul><ul><li...
Cupcakes Top-Down <ul><li>Usually a massive, aggregate  </li></ul><ul><li>number reported by Gartner* </li></ul><ul><li>Ex...
Cupcakes Bottom Up <ul><li>Market Size = $X * Y * Z </li></ul><ul><li>Average Transaction ($X) = $42.00 (1 mini Red Velvet...
Bottom Up Details <ul><li>Segment market into likely target groups based on buyer, demographics, etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Do...
Lean Startup Resources @sgblank – steveblank.com @ericries – startuplessonslearned.com @seanellis – startup-marketing.com ...
20% Discount Code:  CALIT2 PDF http://CustDev.com Paperback  (AMAZON)   http://bit.ly/EGCDPaperback Kindle  (AMAZON)  http...
Lean Startup Buzzword-ology, uh, uhm, Principles
Does this word look familiar?
Minimum Viable Product
Product-Market Fit <ul><li>The Shangri-La of startups </li></ul><ul><li>- You’re there when you don’t have to ask </li></u...
“ Nail it Before You Scale it” <ul><li>Pre-mature Self-Aggrandization is Anathema </li></ul><ul><li>- PR is vanity </li></...
Next: Lean Startup
Lean Startups ≠ Bootstrapping
Lean Startups ≠ Small
Lean Startups ≠ Dictatorship of the Customer  Your customer
Lean Startups ≠ Deterministic
Lean Startups ≠ Any Guarantee of Success
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  • The biggest risk you face is building something no one wants.
  • Ask audience if they are doing a Lean startup. And ask them why.
  • Ask audience if they are doing a Lean startup. And ask them why.
  • The biggest risk you face is building something no one wants.
  • The biggest risk you face is building something no one wants.
  • Ask audience if they are doing a Lean startup. And ask them why. 100s of thousands of Entrepreneurs Lean Startups to prove business model Capital to serve entrepreneurs (not vice versa) End of the dominance of the “Big Win”? Creating an economic “Innovation Machine”
  • Ask audience if they are doing a Lean startup. And ask them why. 100s of thousands of Entrepreneurs Lean Startups to prove business model Capital to serve entrepreneurs (not vice versa) End of the dominance of the “Big Win”? Creating an economic “Innovation Machine”
  • Ask audience if they are doing a Lean startup. And ask them why. 100s of thousands of Entrepreneurs Lean Startups to prove business model Capital to serve entrepreneurs (not vice versa) End of the dominance of the “Big Win”? Creating an economic “Innovation Machine”
  • Ask audience if they are doing a Lean startup. And ask them why. 100s of thousands of Entrepreneurs Lean Startups to prove business model Capital to serve entrepreneurs (not vice versa) End of the dominance of the “Big Win”? Creating an economic “Innovation Machine”
  • Calit2 UC Irvine

    1. 1. It’s the end of the (startup) world as we know it and you should feel fine. Calit2 - University of California Irvine Feb 3, 2011 <ul><li>Brant Cooper </li></ul><ul><li>Twitter: @brantcooper </li></ul><ul><li>Blog: </li></ul><ul><li>marketbynumbers.com </li></ul><ul><li>Patrick Vlaskovits </li></ul><ul><li>Twitter: @vlaskovits </li></ul><ul><li>Blog: </li></ul><ul><li>vlaskovits.com </li></ul>
    2. 2. Startup Empowerment Lower cost Easier Money Global Social Savvy
    3. 3. The End of the (Startup) World As We Know It <ul><li>100s of thousands of Entrepreneurs </li></ul><ul><li>Capital to serve entrepreneurs (not vice versa) </li></ul><ul><li>End of the dominance of the “Big Win” strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Creating an economic “Innovation Machine” thru Lean Startups </li></ul>
    4. 4. 3 Popular Startup Philosophies Be Like Steve (Jobs) Just Do It Lean Startups
    5. 5. Why Lean Startups?
    6. 6. <ul><li>The vast majority of startups fail NOT because they couldn’t build a product, but because no one wanted the product. </li></ul><ul><li>(One of Steve Blank’s (many) Big Ideas.) </li></ul>Lean Startups Big Idea #1
    7. 7. <ul><li>“ The vast majority of successful [startups] abandoned their initial plans and learned what would and would not work in the market.” </li></ul><ul><li>-Clayton Christensen, The Innovator’s Dilemma </li></ul>Lean Startup Big Idea #2
    8. 8. <ul><li>The problem and the solution are UNKNOWN </li></ul><ul><li>Your business model will change </li></ul><ul><li>You have limited $ </li></ul><ul><li> Maximize # changes/$ </li></ul>Basic Tenets of a Lean Startup
    9. 9. Product + Customer Development
    10. 10. Philosophy
    11. 11. Question your assumptions Get out of the building Iterate through learning
    12. 12. Lean Startups & Market Assessments <ul><li>Top-Down Approach </li></ul><ul><li>and </li></ul><ul><li>Bottom-Up Approach </li></ul>
    13. 13. Lean Startups & Market Assessments <ul><li>Is your objective: </li></ul><ul><li>Writing a Business Plan? </li></ul><ul><li>Raising Capital? </li></ul>
    14. 14. Cupcakes Top-Down <ul><li>Usually a massive, aggregate </li></ul><ul><li>number reported by Gartner* </li></ul><ul><li>Example: “The market for </li></ul><ul><li>gourmet cupcakes </li></ul><ul><li>in the USA is 9 bazillion dollars!” </li></ul><ul><li>Useful for demonstrating size of vision; </li></ul><ul><li>Also good for self- (and investor) delusion </li></ul>*insert any well-known, reputable market research firm here
    15. 15. Cupcakes Bottom Up <ul><li>Market Size = $X * Y * Z </li></ul><ul><li>Average Transaction ($X) = $42.00 (1 mini Red Velvet Coconut Jalapeno Cupcake) </li></ul><ul><li>Customers in market (Y) = 1,000,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Number of Annual Transactions (Z) = 14 </li></ul><ul><li>= $42 * 1,000,000 * 14 = $588,000,000 </li></ul>Openly cribbed from Dave McClure’s Startup Viagra: How to Pitch a VC - http://vlskvts.co/dMHjSq  go read the original
    16. 16. Bottom Up Details <ul><li>Segment market into likely target groups based on buyer, demographics, etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Do Customer Development to validate segments, sizing, pricing estimates, etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Remember – your numbers are guesses until you validate your business model; </li></ul><ul><li>The more the proof, the better the assessment </li></ul><ul><li>Most investments don’t come before proof </li></ul>
    17. 17. Lean Startup Resources @sgblank – steveblank.com @ericries – startuplessonslearned.com @seanellis – startup-marketing.com @hnshah – blog.kissmetrics.com @davemcclure – 500hats.com @richcollins – LSC Google Group
    18. 18. 20% Discount Code: CALIT2 PDF http://CustDev.com Paperback (AMAZON) http://bit.ly/EGCDPaperback Kindle (AMAZON) http://bit.ly/EGCDKindle Contact Info: [email_address] @vlaskovits http://vlaskovits.com @brantcooper http://marketbynumbers.com
    19. 19. Lean Startup Buzzword-ology, uh, uhm, Principles
    20. 20. Does this word look familiar?
    21. 21. Minimum Viable Product
    22. 22. Product-Market Fit <ul><li>The Shangri-La of startups </li></ul><ul><li>- You’re there when you don’t have to ask </li></ul><ul><li>- You have scalability issues </li></ul><ul><li>You grow despite your flaws </li></ul><ul><li>You look young, but are growing old quickly </li></ul><ul><li>You’re there one day and lost the next </li></ul>
    23. 23. “ Nail it Before You Scale it” <ul><li>Pre-mature Self-Aggrandization is Anathema </li></ul><ul><li>- PR is vanity </li></ul><ul><li>- “Launch early” means get users while imperfect </li></ul><ul><li>- Marketing launch = fill up your funnel </li></ul><ul><li>Pre-P-M fit do the former, not the latter </li></ul><ul><li>TechCrunch bump can be deadly </li></ul>
    24. 24. Next: Lean Startup
    25. 25. Lean Startups ≠ Bootstrapping
    26. 26. Lean Startups ≠ Small
    27. 27. Lean Startups ≠ Dictatorship of the Customer Your customer
    28. 28. Lean Startups ≠ Deterministic
    29. 29. Lean Startups ≠ Any Guarantee of Success

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