Space Policy - Vis Viva - 10th bi-weekly meeting - August 7, 2013

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This presentation was given by Philippe Carous, LLM Air and Space Law, at the 10th bi-weekly meeting of the Society of Space Professionals Vis Viva.

It shall be pointed out that our meetings are about more than just slides—they are about the interaction of our Fellows. Vis Viva offers a forum for the active discussion of space topics, and so our talks are lively get-together with a permanent conversation of the speaker and the audience. Since just slides cannot get this across, we kindly invite you to join one of our bi-weekly activities.

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Space Policy - Vis Viva - 10th bi-weekly meeting - August 7, 2013

  1. 1. 12
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  3. 3. 1 US, EU and Russian Space Policy Past , present and future Vis Viva society 07 August 2013 Philippe Carous LLM in Air & Space Law (candidate) Promotion 2013 University of Leiden, the Netherlands mailto:philippecarous@gmail.com
  4. 4. 2 PLAN .The global picture » The three successive waves theory (A. Dupas) slide 4 » Legal and regulatory development (E. Sadeh) slide 5 .USA and Russia: past and present » Space race (1955-1975): the facts slide 6 » Space race: the political analysis slide 7 » International cooperation and competition (1975-today) slide 14 .Europe: past and present » Emergence and governance of space activities in Europe slide 17 » Progressive emergence of an EU space policy slide 18 » Definition, implementation and content of EU space policy slide 19 » Observation and political analysis slide 20 .The future of space activities slide 22 .Policy case: The Shuttle, Arianespace and Galileo slide 25 .Conclusion slide 26 .Some figures + bibliography
  5. 5. 3 PLAN Past Present Future USA Slide 6-7 (1955-1975) Slide 14 (1975-2013) Slide 22 USSR / Russia Europe Slide 17-18-19-20
  6. 6. 4 The three successive waves theory (A. Dupas) 1945 Today Space exploration (1960’s) End space race Teledetection (1970’s) Landsat 1 (1972) Landsat 7 KH12 Telecommunication (1990’s) Intelsat (1964) SES (1985) O3B (2013) 2010 (ISS + China) Corona (59-72) A. Dupas, La nouvelle conquête spatiale (2010), p.16-17
  7. 7. 5 Legal and regulatory development (E. Sadey) E. Sadeh, Space Politics and Policy: An Evolutionary Perspective (2002), p.169-172. 1945 Today Classical period (1958-1980) Transitional period Modern period UNCOPUOS (1958) UN Res. (1961) UN. Decl. (1963) 5 Space Treaties Creation of binding space international law New space technology civil to commercial Developing countries Apparition of commercial space law Four major resolutions (Nucl-TV-RemS-benef.) Multilateral alliance (SL) Domestic legislation Renewal of (non- binding) international space law
  8. 8. 6 Space race (1955-1975): the facts Eisenhower (53-61) Kennedy (61-63) Jonhson (63-69) Nixon (69-74) Mercury (59-63) Gemini (62-66) Apollo (61-72) Skylab (65-79) Nuclear Bomb (49) ICBM R7 (57) Sputnik R7 (57) Jupiter No payload (56) Korolev A4 to R1 (53) Vanguard « Flopnik » (57) Explorer 1 Von Bron (58) Vostok 1 Gagarin (61) NASA (58) Shepard Sub-10 min (61) JFK Speach - Moon (61) Vostok 2 24h + Contrl (61) Mariner 2 Venus (62) Ranger 7 Moon pics (64) Vostok 3 & 4 Simultanerous (62) Vostok 5 & 6 Woman + longest (63) 4 Vostok  Voskhod (62) Voskhod 1 2 crew (64) Gemini 10 man mission (64-66) JFK Proposal (63) Wednesday Focuss on Moon N1 secret (64) Stalin (22-53) Khrutchev (53-64) Brehznev (64-82) Vostok(61-63) Voskhod (64-65) Soyuz (65-71) N1/L3(63-74) Korolev deceased (66) Soyuz 1 Parachute crash (66) Soyuz 11 Fatal accident Salyout 1 (71) Luna-9 Radiation (66) Apollo-Soyouz Test Project July 1975 Apollo 11 31 kgs (69) Apollo 14-17 (69-72) 1950 1960 1965(…) 1970 1975(…) (…) (…) Voskhod 2 Spacewalk (64) Skylab (65-79)
  9. 9. 7 Space race (1955-1975): the political analysis USA USSR The role of german engineering The role of german engineering Eisenhower too prudent? The decision to launch Spoutnik JFK the visionary? Focussed on ideological impact rather than technological achievement (+ risks) NASA = oversight authority Organizational problem Transparency Opacity - Secret program (N-1) USSR reaction after Apollo 11 Late but improving (Gemini) What’s next? Programmatic Vision?
  10. 10. 8 Operation Paperclip (1944-45) Redstone (52-54)  Mercury, Shepard (61) Saturn V (Apollo 11) France: A8  Diamant A (65) A4(V2) R1  R7 ICBM USSR
  11. 11. 9 Wernher von Bron (1912-1977) JFK visit to Cape Canaveral (1963) Apollo 11 splashdown in Pacific (1969)
  12. 12. 10 Sergei Korolev (1907-1966) ‘’Korolev Cross’’ Soyouz flying to ISS (2008)
  13. 13. 11 Satellite picture (1968) N-1 Rocket Last launch (1972) 106 sec. N-1 Rocket Saturn V vs. N-1 Rocket Lunar secret program (1966-1974)
  14. 14. 12 speech available here Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI) -2 mission per year on the Shuttle -1st and only mission in April 1991 (AF-675) - Project abandoned in May 1993 Reagan “Star Wars” speech (1983)
  15. 15. 13 Bourane-Energya secret program (cancelled in 1993) - 1st an only flight in 1988 - 3 hours in space + 2 orbits - Destroy in 2002 in hangar accident (+ 8 victims)
  16. 16. 14 From 1975 to 2013: competition and cooperation USA USSR - Shuttle program (Nixon, 1973), 1st flight (1981) end (2011) + Skylab - Salyut (1971-1986) – Mir (1986-2001)+ EU and Canada (1973Spacelab ) - Bourane 1st flight = 1988- Shuttle 1st flight = 1981 - Bourane replaced N-1 secret program - Reagan « Star wars » speech in 83 - USSR collapsed in 1991 - Clinton: Russia to join ISS (1993) - Challenger + Mir (1995) - Mir destructed in 2001- 9/11 September (ITAR rules) - Columbia accident (2003)  Bush Vision For Space Exploration (2004) - Augustine report (2004) - Soyouz = only access to ISS - Obama policy (2004): innov. + comm. No cooperation in military projects!
  17. 17. 15 Apollo–Soyuz Test Project 24 July 1975 Challenger + MIR 1995 ESA spacelab 1983 (signed 1973) Saluyt 7 - 1982 (+ French Astronaut) ISS: 84 (US) + EU/JAP/CAN (86) + RUSS (93)  2010 -2020? Civil International cooperation and competition (1975-today)
  18. 18. 16 Augustine report (2009): the US flexible path Available here (see page 40)
  19. 19. 17 FR-GE NATIONAL APPROACH Symphony (1963) FR-GE Lisbon Treaty (2009) Art.189 TFEU (mixed) COM 1988 SEA (1987) RTD title Maastricht (1992) RTD extended FP7 (2007) « Space and security » External Action Service (2009) : CSDP ESA (1975) FP4-5-6 SATCOM - EO EU – ESA FA (2004) Space Council GMES – GALILEO (2000) (TEN program) European Defence Agency (2004) Military, defence and security applications Other (untill mid 60’s) ELDO / ESRO (1964)INTERGOVERNMENTAL APPROACH SUPRA NATIONAL APPROACH Helios (1995-2009) French + BE-GE-GR-SP-IT 2000 MIL or DUAL satellites SAR-Lupe (GE) Cosmo Skymed (IT) Asterix (1965) France (MIL) Ariane (1979) ESA projectEuropa II (1972) 1945 2010 1973 US restrictions Emergence and governance of space activities in Europe 7th Council (2007) ESP (EC-ESA) MUSOS (MIL SAT) By 2015 (EDA)
  20. 20. 18 .EU is a growing actor but no consensus on its future role .Two turning points in the history of the European Space Policy .In Europe, space activities are conducted at 3 levels  Kosovo war (1996) and failure of Galileo PPP (2007) .The European Space Policy started as a purely intergovernmental affair but gradually acquired supranational dimension - GMES and GALILEO = flagship “test” programs / ESA = technical arm - Diversity of national space policy logics (FR-GE-UK-IT) - From FP4 and TRAN to Article 189 TFEU - Space is a tool to conduct (new) EU policies (EA, Frontex, EDA, CFSP) - However, there is a consensus on specific point (PR, ESA expertise, national program) .The creation of ESA was not easy and favoured by the US attitude  Package deal (1973) + US restrictions to Symphony (1973) Emergence of an European Space Policy
  21. 21. 19 Definition, goals, implementation and content of the ESP DEFINITION IMPLEMENTATION CONTENT OF THE ESP Resolution of the Space Council (2007) jointly prepared by ESA-EC Role of the EP Coordination between NSA- EC-ESA-EUMETSAT ESP activities under ESA-EU FA GOALS - Social - Economic (EUROPE 2020+) - Strategic (eco / pol independance) 1. COPERNICUS (climate change) AND GALILEO 2. SECURE SPACE TO ACHIEVE SEC/DEF OBJECTIVES - GMES MIL / DUAL / Frontex - Making space infrastructure secure (SSA + COC) - Pooling of MIL resources (MUSIS / EDA) 3. SPACE EXPLORATION - ISS – Access to space (European launcher policy) 4. COMPETITIVENESS [189(2) TFEU] - EU space industrial policy (PR, R§I, STAN, EU=client) - SATCOM (60% turnover) and EU Digital Agenda 5. INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION - Africa (GMES + EGNOS), COC, Bilat. (China, BRIC?) - Climate change / humanitarian aid (EAS) 6. CLEAR GOVERNANCE [MS/ESA]
  22. 22. 20 .Parallel with the European Defence and Security Policy (European Defence Agency only created in 2004) .Optimism: - ESA was created during the oil crisis (1975) - “Europe will not be made all at once, or according to a single plan” (R. Schuman, 1950) .Shift towards total EU management of space in Europe does not look acceptable – (mixed competence) .ESP will increase (SST/EU20+)  resources (€ + expert.)  Treaty modification? .In Europe, activites are conducted at 3 different levels (equilateral? Isoceles? Random?) Observation and political analysis
  23. 23. 21 Illustration National space activities budget in 2008 (Millions of EUR) This chart illustrates the diversity with regard to national space policy within EU Member States
  24. 24. 22 The Future of space activities Space sustainibility / Weaponization / Cooperation with China / Private actors / budget constraints / Future of ISS / US leadership USA EU RUSSIA - Giant launcher? - Flexible path? - Commercial sector - Transitional period - Most advanced - Space = military tool - MoD vs NASA - Space dominance - ITAR? - No more errors - Future of ESA - ATV to Orion with USA - Institutional challenges (not technical) - Ariane VI - Access to space? - Arianespace, SES. - UK? - France – Italy - Germany - To continue ISS alone? - Increased budget - Behind USA - Code of Conduct with China - Proton failure (02.07.2013)!!!!!!  Attitude of CHINA will shape US policy (and vice versa)  CHINA replaced Russia as a new challenger  But no Kennedy’s “before the decade is out”
  25. 25. 23Shenzhou 5 (2003) SpaceX – Dragon visits ISS (May 2012) US Flexible Path (Augustine Report) Columbia disaster (2003) The Future of space activities
  26. 26. 24 GLOBALIZATION-COMMERCIALISATION-COOPERATION Antares Rocket (Science Orbital Corp.) 21 April 2011 AJ26-58 engine (improved version of NK33) Russian Lunar N-1 Rocket (1966-1973) NK15 Engine (later NK33 improved version)
  27. 27. 25 Policy case  Arianespace (1980)  Ariane program decided in 1973 (ESA  CNES)  inaugural flight of Ariane 1 (1978)  First contract in 1979  Arianespace created in 1980  1st commercial LSP  impact of Challenger disaster (1986)  Ariane V critical period after inaugural flight failure  Starsem JU (Soyouz launched from Kourou)  New challenges: Ariane VI vs. SpaceX  Galileo (2000)  Kosovo war and US downgrading policy  Strategic aspects  US opposition (letter of Rumsfeld)  China to join?  EU Internal institutionnal challenges  Currently implemented  Owned by the EU  Shuttle (1973-2011)  Nixon: Apollo  job is done, cut the plug  Nixon decides the Shuttle programm in 1973 (but abandon of Skylab)  EU to join financial efforts for Spacelab  RFA (53%), Italy (18%), France (10%)  All in one – reusable vehicle – one flight a week – 4 shuttles Civ and Mil (Key Hole + SDI) – NASA (66%) MoD (34%) 3 satcoms paylod Strategic error: abandon of other launcer  Challenger (1986) benefit to Arianespace Strategic error: no development of emergency spacecraft for ISS  100% rely on Soyouz Design error? No ejection device (as opposed to Mercury, Gemini, Apollo, Soyouz)
  28. 28. 26 Conclusion  Policies are defined by (social, military, economical, political) needs and shapped by international law (principle of peaceful use of Outer Space)  new treaties?  China as a new challenger to replace Russia (but ASAT 2007!)  Budget contraints  international cooperation  Future of ISS? Are space activities necessary?  Christophe Columbus  Space = security and military aspects (ICBM, ITAR) US space dominance/control (space weaponization) Engineers to implement and propose policies / politicians to make choices
  29. 29. 27 Some figures Space governemental program in 2007 (billion USD) A. Dupas, La nouvelle conquête spatiale (2010), p.52
  30. 30. 28 Some figures Steve Bochinger (EUROCONSULT), Les marchés spatiaux: structure, tendances globales et perspectives in Droit de l’espace, Larcier ed. (2009), pp. 36-40. NASA budget in 2006 = 16 bn $ (55% of total civil expenses in the world) ESA budget = 2,5 bn $ (15% of NASA budget) US MoD budget = 21,5 bn $ NASA exploration costs up to 2016 = 104 bn $ (EU annual budget = 145 bn) In comparaison: - Price 1 satellite + launch: 450 million $ - Airbus A380 = 300 million $ - EU budget in 2012 = 147 bn EUR - EADS revenue in 2012 = 57 bn EUR - Boeing revenue in 2012 = 82 bn $
  31. 31. 29 Bibliography - A.Dupas, La nouvelle conquête de l’espace, Odile Jacob ed. (2010) - M. J. Neufeld, Von Braun (2007) - E. Sadeh, Space Politics and Policy: An Evolutionary Perspective (2002) - J. P. Morin, La naissance d’Ariane (2009) - R. Godwin, Russian Spacecraft, Pocket Space Guide (2006) - X. Pasco, La politique spatiale des Etats Unis 1958-1995, L’Harmattan (1997) - L. Marta, “”National visions of space European space governance”” in Space Policy 29 (2013) - N. Peter, ‘’The EU emergent space diplomacy”, in Space Policy 23 (2007) - K. Suzuki, Policy Logics and Institutions of European Space Collaboration (2002) - P. Achilleas, Droit de l’espace, Larcier (2007) - 2010 United States National Security Space Strategy (2011), in ZLW (2011) 264-279. - S. Robinson, The 2010 United States National Space Policy, ZLW (2011) 534-550. - European Space Policy progress report, COM (2008) 561 final - Christian Lardier, La saga du Shutlle, Air & Cosmos, N°2275, 22 July 2011
  32. 32. 30 Question? mailto:philippecarous@gmail.com
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  34. 34. 13 © NASA @SocietyVisViva +Society Vis Viva /SocietyVisViva

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