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South Corridor Development Summary

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Todd noell, South Corridor Development Summary

Todd noell, South Corridor Development Summary

Published in: Business, Technology

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  • 1. [INSERT IMG] SOUTH CORRIDOR DEVELOPMENT SUMMARY URBAN LAND INSTITUTE112 KROG STREET NE SUITE 14 | ATLANTA, GA 30307 CONTACT | 404.681.0006
  • 2. NCG OVERVIEW• Noell Consulting Group • Real estate consultant based in Atlanta • Conduct market analyses and consumer research for both public sector and private sector clients • Conduct numerous studies along transit corridors and locations • Studied South Corridor since 2002 • Three other planned corridors • Conducted numerous TOD analyses in Washington, DC, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Atlanta, Raleigh & Charlotte
  • 3. OVERVIEW OF THE SOUTH LINE• Corridor opened in November 2007 • First corridor in five corridor system• Includes 11 stations outside of Center City• Follows existing rail line to the south
  • 4. SOUTH LINE CONTEXT• Using existing rail line • Bringing people to the CORE corridor, not the corridor to people• Corridor does not traverse any major employment cores outside of Center CORE City CORE• Higher incomes largely to the east• Crosses/accesses freeway only at the ends of corridor CORE
  • 5. SOUTH LINE CONTEXT S S S S S S S S S S S
  • 6. CONTEXT—TIMING WAS TOUGH Mecklenburg Employment Growth 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 -10,000 -20,000 -30,000 -40,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Mecklenburg Office Absorption2,500,0002,000,0001,500,0001,000,000 500,000 0 -500,000-1,000,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • 7. SOUTH LINE SUCCESS TO DATE• In spite of challenges, TOD has been quite strong• Completed Projects • $341M in tax value added • 2,168 MF units • 9.2% capture • 308,400 SF office • 1.9% capture • 252,000 SF retail • 2.5% capture
  • 8. TALE OF THREE SEGMENTS• South End • Carson • East-West • Bland • New Bern• Mid-Corridor Stations • Scaleybark • Tyvola • Woodlawn • Archdale• Southern Stations • Arrowood • I-485 • Sharon West
  • 9. SOUTH END SEGMENT• Completed Projects • $324M in tax value added • 95% of corridor total • 1,976 MF units • 91% of corridor total • 308,400 SF office • 100% of corridor total • 190,300 SF retail • 76% of corridor total
  • 10. SOUTH END SUCCESS• Leasing agents & Realtors • transit access important for 30% - 40% of residents• South End rental apartments • 12.5% premium over inner ring, non- rail projects • Achieving rents that allow more urban product ($1.52/SF)• Office & retail • Growing design district, restaurants/ nightlife, urban Lowe’s • Commercial generally not achieving premiums over other intown cores
  • 11. MID-CORRIDOR• Completed Projects • $1.76M in tax value added • 1% of corridor total • 0 MF units • 0% of corridor total • 0 SF office • 0% of corridor total • 7,150 SF retail • 3% of corridor total
  • 12. SOUTHERN STATIONS• Completed Projects • $15.6M in tax value added • 5% of corridor total • 192 MF units • 9% of corridor total • 0 SF office • 0% of corridor total • 54,600 SF retail • 22% of corridor total
  • 13. TRANSIT IMPORTANT FACTOR, BUT NOT MOST CRITICAL• “Transit doesn’t make a bad location good, it makes a good location better” • Portland TriMet interview• Transit is a key part of creating convenience and lifestyle, but must have other lifestyle or selling propositions • Employment proximity • Affluence of neighborhoods • Create price alternative hsg needs • Walkability • Unique character
  • 14. CASE STUDY COMPARISONBland Street Station Tyvola Station S S
  • 15. CASE STUDY COMPARISON Bland TyvolaPredominant Land Use Mix of Loft Commercial, Mix of Strip Retail, Bus. Residential, some Ind. ParkShortest Walk to Exist Res, 2005 .19 miles .31 milesWalk Score 82 68Avg Area Home Sales Price $291,000 $166,000Distance to Major Office Core .8 Miles 2.8 MilesStation Format Surface ElevatedRental Apt Lease Rates $1.50 $1.00 - $1.10 Parking Supported Decked SurfaceSupportable Densities 60 – 100+/Acre 25 – 30/AcreRetail Rents $22 - $26/SF $12 - $16/SF
  • 16. WHERE ARE WE HEADING?• Next wave of apartment construction starting up • 1,535 new units in next two to three years • 3,700 new residential units in roughly a decade • Projects in South End, extending south to New Bern Station• Developers very tuned into value of transit—emphasize Blue Line access as a key selling feature• Commercial still a tougher challenge, but housing creates more potential
  • 17. WHERE ARE WE HEADING?• Central and Southern sections likely to remain relatively quiet• City/CATS will need to identify strategies & investment to create value • Parks & Plazas • Greenways • Institutional units & anchors • Use of financial tools• Lack of land control around stations an issue
  • 18. IN CLOSING• Development has been strong given timing, market struggles, and attributes of corridor • Residential has been much stronger than commercial• Transit undoubtedly “elevating” locations where lifestyle proposition/ convenience already exist • 3,700 units in 10 years• Stations lacking that proposition a much tougher development scenario • Other investments/steps may be needed to facilitate development • Lack of CATS property makes this more challenging
  • 19. [INSERT IMG] SOUTH CORRIDOR DEVELOPMENT SUMMARY URBAN LAND INSTITUTE112 KROG STREET NE SUITE 14 | ATLANTA, GA 30307 CONTACT | 404.681.0006
  • 20. OTHER FACTORS WEIGH HEAVILY Center SouthernFactor South End Stations StationsHousing $325,000 $128,000 $71,000ValueWalkability 76 60 44ScoreDistance to 1.3 4.5 6.75Center CityCharacter Med. To High Low LowStation High—one More Moderate—Visibility parcel deep removed— somewhat from S. Blvd generally low removedFeasibility of Redev. Redev—not Mixed—someDevelopment Feasible feasible greenfield