1:30 PM – 2:45 PM , 2011
Welcome and Introduction Partner, Ballard Spahr LLP  Washington, DC Executive Vice President, Midland Loan Services, Inc. ...
FROTHY 2007
TSUNAMI – 2009 and 2010
2011 – HAS THE SNAKE FULLY DIGESTED THE RAT?
CMBS Market Composition Source: TREPP LLC, Market Snapshot, October 24, 2011 As of September 2011, the total amount of out...
There is currently a  9.63%   delinquency rate for CMBS real estate loans nationwide.   Source: TREPP LLC, Market Snapshot...
Loans in Special Servicing Approximately  13%  or  4,400   of CMBS real estate loans are in Special Servicing, representin...
Types of Collateral in Special Servicing Office projects represent  29%   of current Special Servicing volume — up almost ...
Underlying Collateral in Special Servicing: Geographic Distribution  Source: TREPP LLC, Market Snapshot, October 24, 2011 ...
REO Properties Held by Special Servicers:  Geographic Distribution Source: TREPP LLC, Market Snapshot October 24, 2011 3.5...
Types of REO Properties in Special Servicing Source: TREPP LLC, Market Snapshot October 24, 2011 Office Multifamily Retail...
CMBS Loan Maturity Timeline Nearly  $559 billion (91%)   of outstanding CMBS  real estate loans will mature within the nex...
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 $50 billion $100 billion $150 billion $200 billion $250 billion CMB...
The Spectre of Long-Term Unemployment There are  1.0 million  additional “discouraged workers” who have given up on lookin...
The Spectre of Long-Term Distressed Housing <ul><li>About  16.2 million  borrowers–or nearly  28%  of all homeowners with ...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Distressed Assets in a Volatile Economy: Investor Opportunities and Strategies for Acquisition and Resolution of Specially Serviced CMBS Commercial Real Estate Assets (Kelly Wrenn) - ULI fall meeting - 102711

316 views
261 views

Published on

Published in: Business, Economy & Finance
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
316
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
6
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Distressed Assets in a Volatile Economy: Investor Opportunities and Strategies for Acquisition and Resolution of Specially Serviced CMBS Commercial Real Estate Assets (Kelly Wrenn) - ULI fall meeting - 102711

  1. 1. 1:30 PM – 2:45 PM , 2011
  2. 2. Welcome and Introduction Partner, Ballard Spahr LLP Washington, DC Executive Vice President, Midland Loan Services, Inc. Washington, DC Senior Vice President, CWCapital Asset Management LLC Baltimore, MD Vice Chairman/General Counsel, LNR Partners, LLC. Miami, FL Senior Managing Director/General Counsel, C-III Asset Management LLC Dallas, TX | | | | | | | | | | Moderator Kelly Wrenn Panelists Stacey Berger Andrew Hundertmark Thomas Nealon Jenna Unell
  3. 3. FROTHY 2007
  4. 4. TSUNAMI – 2009 and 2010
  5. 5. 2011 – HAS THE SNAKE FULLY DIGESTED THE RAT?
  6. 6. CMBS Market Composition Source: TREPP LLC, Market Snapshot, October 24, 2011 As of September 2011, the total amount of outstanding CMBS loans was approximately $618 billion . Office 30.22% Retail 29.98% Multifamily 14.24% Industrial 4.79% Other 11.35% Lodging 9.42%
  7. 7. There is currently a 9.63% delinquency rate for CMBS real estate loans nationwide. Source: TREPP LLC, Market Snapshot, October 24, 2011 Commercial R/E Loan Delinquency Rates Delinquency Rate
  8. 8. Loans in Special Servicing Approximately 13% or 4,400 of CMBS real estate loans are in Special Servicing, representing a total loan balance of nearly $82 billion . UPB ($billion) % of total CMBS universe Source: Fitch Ratings, CMBS 2Q2010 Servicing Update , August 11, 2010; TREPP LLC, Market Snapshot, October 24, 2011 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q2
  9. 9. Types of Collateral in Special Servicing Office projects represent 29% of current Special Servicing volume — up almost 17% from year-end 2009. Source: TREPP LLC, Market Snapshot, October 24, 2011 Office Multifamily Retail Lodging Other Industrial 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 29.0% 20.1% 21.1% 14.3% 10.9% 4.7%
  10. 10. Underlying Collateral in Special Servicing: Geographic Distribution Source: TREPP LLC, Market Snapshot, October 24, 2011 3.0% 24.6% 19.2% 3.1% 7.4% 10.4% 2.9% 11.1% 15.0% Collateral outside US: 0.3%
  11. 11. REO Properties Held by Special Servicers: Geographic Distribution Source: TREPP LLC, Market Snapshot October 24, 2011 3.5% 8.6% 23.0% 5.0% 14.5% 11.5% 1.8% 16.0% 15.9% Properties outside US: 0.2% Approx. Count: 980 REO
  12. 12. Types of REO Properties in Special Servicing Source: TREPP LLC, Market Snapshot October 24, 2011 Office Multifamily Retail Lodging Other Industrial 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 24.5% 22.6% 32.6% 12.3% 4.4% 3.6%
  13. 13. CMBS Loan Maturity Timeline Nearly $559 billion (91%) of outstanding CMBS real estate loans will mature within the next 6 years . Source: TREPP LLC, Market Snapshot , October 24, 2011 Outstanding Loan Balance (billions)
  14. 14. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 $50 billion $100 billion $150 billion $200 billion $250 billion CMBS New Issuance In the first three quarters of 2011, there was $26.7 billion of new CMBS issuance — more than double the 2010 total. Source: TREPP LLC, Market Snapshot, October 24, 2011 2011
  15. 15. The Spectre of Long-Term Unemployment There are 1.0 million additional “discouraged workers” who have given up on looking for employment. Long-term unemployment (6 months+) has grown by almost 400% — from 1.3 million people in 2007 to 6.2 million people in 2011. In August 2011, there are 4.7 workers for every available job in the U.S.; before the Great Recession (December 2007) there were 1.5 . Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 2011
  16. 16. The Spectre of Long-Term Distressed Housing <ul><li>About 16.2 million borrowers–or nearly 28% of all homeowners with a mortgage–have homes which are </li></ul><ul><li>“ underwater.” </li></ul><ul><li>(Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Michigan, California) </li></ul><ul><li>The U.S. has 10 million vacant single family homes and an additional 18 million single family homes are now rented. </li></ul>Sources: Zillow Inc., October 24, 2011; CoreLogic, October 24, 2011; Fannie Mae, January 25, 2011

×