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Arab spring

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  • 1. The Arab Spring: What it represents & implications for national security (Data from Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, & Saudi Arabia) Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co-PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong
  • 2. The Arab Spring: What it represents & implications for national security (Data from Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, & Saudi Arabia) Overview • The Arab Spring as a departure from extremism: Non-ideological movements for democracy & economic prosperity • The Internet as an ideologically-neutral organizing tool • A shift in people’s political and cultural values• A shift in people’s political and cultural values • Who participated in the Arab Spring? • Westernization, democracy, equality, & economic prosperity • Interest in Western technology • Positive implications for national security: (1) The Arab Spring’s focus on freedom and democracy counters tendencies toward political violence (2) Positive attitudes toward Westernization and Western technology provide a basis for constructive dialog with the Arab public
  • 3. Data Collection Methods Face-to-face interviews with nationally- representative samples Survey Field Period Sample Size Survey questionnaire available: http://mevs.org/data/survey-summary/1004 Egypt June – August 2011 3,496 Iraq January – February 2011 3,000 Lebanon March – July 2011 3,034 Saudi Arabia January – February 2011 2,005
  • 4. People’s Explanations for the Arab Spring: Movements for democracy & economic prosperity 59% 51% 40% 50% 60% 70% %reportingmainreasonfortheArabSpring 25% 9% 2% 2% 3% 15% 9% 10% 9% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% Freedom & democracy Economic equality & prosperity Islamic government Counter Western influence Part of a Western conspiracy Arab unity %reportingmainreasonfor Egypt Lebanon
  • 5. %Relying on Satellite TV, Internet, or Mobile as Sources of Information 49% 69% 74% 62% 49% 50% 60% 70% 80% 14% 14% 10% 28% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Egypt Iraq Saudi Arabia Satellite TV Internet Mobile
  • 6. Trends in values among Egyptians, Iraqis, and Saudis National Identity Which one of the following best describes you? 1. I am an Egyptian, Iraqi, Saudi, above all 2. I am a Muslim, above all 3. I am an Arab, above all 4. I am a Kurd, above all 5. Other
  • 7. Egypt: % Expressing “I am an Egyptian, Muslim, or Arab, above all” 81% 50% 48%50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 8% 1% 50% 48% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Above all, Egyptian Above all, Muslim Above all, Arab 2001 2011
  • 8. Iraq: % Expressing “I am Iraqi, above all” 56% 59% 63% 57% 40% 50% 60% 70% 23% 32% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Dec.-2004 Apr.-2006 Mar.-2007 Jul.-2007 Dec.-2008 Jan.-2011
  • 9. Saudi Arabia: % Expressing “I Am Saudi, Muslim, or Arab, above all” 75% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 17% 9% 46% 44% 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Saudi, above all Muslim, above all Arab, above all 2003 2011
  • 10. Trends in values Religion & Politics Is it very important, important, somewhat important, not important, or not at all important for a good government tofor a good government to 1.Implement only the Shari'a law? 2.Implement only the wishes of the people?
  • 11. Egyptian Muslims: People’s Wishes Versus the Shari’a 48% 64% 40% 50% 60% 70% 31% 28% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Shari'a law Laws according to the people's wishes 2001 2011
  • 12. Egypt: Which is better in a politician? Strong religious beliefs or strong commitment to national interests(2011) 78% 60% 70% 80% 90% 22% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Strong religious beliefs Strong commitment to national interests
  • 13. Iraq: % Agree that Iraq would be a better place if religion and politics are separated 50% 55% 60% 70% 69% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Dec.-2004 Apr.-2006 Oct.-2006 Dec.-2008 Jan.-2011
  • 14. Saudi Arabia: Decline in support for the Shari’a & in trust of religious institutions 69% 84% 60% 70% 80% 90% 31% 46% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Shari'a law very important Trusting religious institutions a great deal 2003 2011
  • 15. Egypt: Democracy vs. Strong head of gov’t (% Strongly agree) 68% 79% 84% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2% 9% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Democratic political system Strong head of government 2001 2008 2011
  • 16. Iraq: % Strongly agree that form of government is good 59% 55% 53% 40% 50% 60% 70% 30% 11% 5% 22% 11% 6% 15% 12% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% Democracy Islamic government Strong head of government Army rule 2004 Apr-06 2011
  • 17. Saudi Arabia: Democracy as the best form of government (% agree) 58% 71% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2003 2011
  • 18. Trends in values Attitudes toward gender equality 1. A wife must always obey her husband. 2. Men make better political leaders than women do.than women do. 3. University education is more important for boys than it is for girls.
  • 19. Egyptian Muslims: Increase in support for gender inequality 47% 55% 68% 60% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 16% 21% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Wife must always obey her husband Men make better political leaders University education is more important for boys 2000 2011
  • 20. Iraq: Decline in support for gender inequality (% Strongly agree) 64% 71% 63% 69% 42% 50% 60% 70% 80% 29% 25% 33% 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% A wife should always obey her husband Men make better political leaders University education is more important for boys 2004 2006 2011
  • 21. 53% 61% 44% 44% 50% 60% 70% Saudi Arabia: Decline in support for gender inequality (% Strongly agree) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Men make better political leaders A wife must always obey her husband 2003 2011
  • 22. Egyptian Muslims: Correlates of protest participations (Correlation coefficients) .14 .25 .15 .17 .16 .25 .11 .20 .13 .18 .11 .15 .20 .25 .30 .11 .11 .00 .05 .10
  • 23. Egypt: Increased Westernization is tied to increased gender equality, democracy, and overall standard of living 90% 93% 95% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Equality between women & men Democracy The overall standard of living
  • 24. COUNTRY Would Be Better with Technology of the West (2011) 85% 89% 84% 90% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Egypt Iraq Lebanon Saudi Arabia
  • 25. Summary 1. Increase in national identity 2. Decline in support for the shari’a 3. Increase in gender equality (except in Egypt) 4. Positive implications for national security: (1) The Arab Spring’s focus on freedom and democracyfreedom and democracy counters tendencies toward political violence (2) Positive attitudes toward Westernization and Western technology provide a basis for constructive dialog with the Arab public