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Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10
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Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10

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  • 1. Twin Cities Boise Chicago Rockford Salt Lake Northern CO Indianapolis Baltimore Denver Reno Suburban MD/DC Colorado Springs Sacramento Northern VA/DC Bay Area St. Geo/Mesquite Central Valley Las Vegas Triad Nashville Prescott Raleigh/Durham Central Coast Santa Fe Inland Empire Charlotte Albuquerque LA Coastal Atlanta Phoenix Tucson San Diego DFW Austin Houston North Florida (Jacksonville) San Antonio Tampa Bay Central Florida (Orlando) Rio Grande Valley Sarasota/Bradenton Treasure Coast Naples/Ft. Myers South Florida (Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-Palm Beach) © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 1
  • 2. NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Overall Consumer Confidence Index-Monthly 120 Dec. 2009 = 52.9 100 80 60 40 20 0 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Source: Conference Board © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 2
  • 3. NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Annual U.S. Non-Ag Job Growth 5,000,000 12 Months Ending 3,000,000 Nov. 2009: <4,659,000> Jobs 1,000,000 -1,000,000 -3,000,000 Nov. 2009 Unemployment -5,000,000 Rate = 10% -7,000,000 Nov-99 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Source: BLS © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 3
  • 4. THE U.S. HOUSING MARKET ANNUAL RATE OF SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING STARTS Thousands 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 Nov. 2009 Annual Starts= 482,000 600 (+5.7% from Nov. 2008) (-74% from Peak in January 2006) 400 200 Nov-89 Nov-90 Nov-91 Nov-92 Nov-93 Nov-94 Nov-95 Nov-96 Nov-97 Nov-98 Nov-99 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Source: Census Bureau © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 4
  • 5. TOP 15 STATES RANKED BY SF PERMITS – (Nov ’09) Rank State SF Annual Permit SF Annual Change 1 Texas 63,222 -20,425 2 Florida 26,574 -16,802 3 North Carolina 24,859 -18,941 4 California 23,305 -11,714 5 Virginia 15,933 -5,350 6 Pennsylvania 13,899 -5,678 7 Georgia 13,673 -14,030 8 South Carolina 13,203 -7,998 9 Washington 12,282 -5,519 10 Arizona 12,049 -7,241 11 Tennessee 11,174 -5,858 12 Louisiana 10,574 -1,515 13 Ohio 10,554 -6,959 14 Indiana 9,521 -3,321 15 New York 9,481 -3,611 Source: Metrostudy - MetroUSA 270,303 -134,962 © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 5
  • 6. THE U.S. HOUSING MARKET Months MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF NEW HOMES 15 14 Nov. 2009 MOS = 7.9 MOS 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Nov-89 Nov-90 Nov-91 Nov-92 Nov-93 Nov-94 Nov-95 Nov-96 Nov-97 Nov-98 Nov-99 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Source: Census Bureau Nov-09 © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 6
  • 7. THE U.S. HOUSING MARKET ANNUAL % CHANGE IN HOME PRICES BY QUARTER S&P CASE SHILLER and FHFA FIGURES 20.0% FHFA 3Q09 <3.8%> 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% S&P Case Shiller FHFA -10.0% -15.0% Case Shiller 3Q09 <8.9>% -20.0% 3Q94 3Q95 3Q96 3Q97 3Q98 3Q99 3Q00 3Q01 3Q02 3Q03 3Q04 3Q05 3Q06 3Q07 3Q08 SOURCE: S&P/Case Shiller & FHFA 3Q09 © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 7
  • 8. THE TEXAS HOUSING MARKETS AVERAGE ANNUAL % CHANGE IN HOME PRICES San Antonio Austin Dallas Ft. Worth Houston Texas 16 14 3Q09 Austin = -0.6% 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 3Q99 3Q00 3Q01 3Q02 3Q03 3Q04 3Q05 3Q06 3Q07 3Q08 3Q09 SOURCE: FHFA © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 8
  • 9. JOB GROWTH-MAJOR TEXAS MARKETS Annual Rate 2007, 2008 & Nov. 2009 120,000 87,000 76,000 2007 2008 Nov-09 70,000 22,500 26,100 24,800 9,900 20,000 4,800 -2,500 -6,200 -4,300 -30,000 -50,700 -80,000 -88,900 -130,000 HOUSTON DALLAS/FT. WORTH SAN ANTONIO AUSTIN SOURCE: Texas Workforce Commission © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 9
  • 10. AUSTIN ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Non-Ag Job Growth: Annual Totals 50,000 Net Job Losses Nov. ’08 to Nov. ’09 = 4,300 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 -10,000 Total Non-Ag -20,000 Employment 780,900 -30,000 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Nov- 09 Source: Texas Workforce Commission © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 10
  • 11. AUSTIN APARTMENT MARKET Occupancy/Rents 100% $1.25 OCCUPANCY 3Q09 $1.20 RENT RATE Avg. Rent = $.93/SF Avg. Occ. = 89% $1.15 95% $1.10 $1.05 90% $1.00 $0.95 85% $0.90 $0.85 80% $0.80 $0.75 75% $0.70 3Q99 3Q00 3Q01 3Q02 3Q03 3Q04 3Q05 3Q06 3Q07 3Q08 3Q09 Source: Austin Investor Interests © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 11
  • 12. AUSTIN RESALE MARKET-MLS STATISTICS Annual Closings History Closings 35,000 32,500 Nov. ‘09 Annual Closings = 20,758 30,000 27,500 25,000 22,500 20,000 17,500 15,000 12,500 10,000 Nov-99 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Source: Real Estate Center © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 12
  • 13. AUSTIN RESALE MARKET - MLS STATISTICS Active Listings & Months of Supply Listings Nov. ’09 Months of Listings 9,836 Listings Supply 14,000 Months Supply 9 5.7 MOS 8 12,000 7 10,000 6 5 8,000 4 6,000 3 2 4,000 1 2,000 0 Nov-99 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Source: Real Estate Center © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 13
  • 14. AUSTIN RESALE MARKET – MLS DATA Single Family MOS By Price Range-November 2009 MOS Previously Owned & New Construction 30 26.4 Prev. Owned New Const. 25.9 24 18 13.4 12 9.6 8.7 6.8 5.9 6.4 6.0 6.7 4.5 6.1 6 0 <$ 12 5 K $ 12 5 K- $ 17 5 K $ 17 5 K- $ 2 5 0 K $ 2 5 0 K- $ 4 0 0 K $ 4 0 0 K- $ 7 5 0 K >$ 7 5 0 K Source: ABOR © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 14
  • 15. AUSTIN RESALE MARKET-MLS STATISTICS Average & Median Price Trend $290,000 Nov. 2008 Avg. =$236,041 $265,000 (Single Family/TH/Condo) $240,000 Average Price $215,000 Median Price $190,000 $165,000 $140,000 Nov. 2008 Median= $115,000 $176,300 (Single Family) $90,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Nov- 09 Source: Real Estate Center © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 15
  • 16. AUSTIN MLS CLOSED SALES Distributed by Sales Price YTD Sept. 2008 vs. YTD Sept. 2009 30% 25% 2008 2009 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% <$100K $100K-$150k $150K-$200K $200K-$300K $300K-$500K +$500K SOURCE: Austin Board of Realtors © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 16
  • 17. THE AUSTIN NEW HOME MARKET ANNUAL STARTS TREND: 2001 to 2009 Detached Housing 18,000 17,000 15,940 16,000 14,638 15,000 14,000 12,190 12,436 13,000 11,225 12,000 10,260 10,450 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,012 8,000 6,490 7,000 6,000 5,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 17
  • 18. THE AUSTIN NEW HOME MARKET ANNUAL STARTS TREND: 3Q06 to 4Q09 Detached Housing 18,000 16,502 17,000 15,940 16,000 14,540 15,000 14,009 14,000 13,152 12,436 13,000 11,543 12,000 10,399 11,000 10,000 9,315 9,000 8,012 8,000 7,301 6,587 6,511 6,490 7,000 6,000 5,000 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 18
  • 19. THE AUSTIN NEW HOME MARKET ANNUAL STARTS & CLOSINGS 20,000 DETACHED HOUSING 18,000 Annual Closings 16,000 Annual Starts 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 6,490 Annual Starts 4,000 7,487 Annual Closings 2,000 0 4Q95 4Q96 4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 19
  • 20. THE AUSTIN NEW HOME MARKET 2009 ANNUAL STARTS BY SUB-MARKET Detached Housing 1,400 1,264 1,200 1,000 833 800 734 608 600 536 433 368 400 308 300 203 166 172 200 0 C P / Le a n. R R oc k K y l e / B uda S W A us. P f l ug. G. Town M a nor D . Va l l e H ut t o S E A ust i n Dr . L. Tr a v i s S pr i ngs © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 20
  • 21. THE AUSTIN NEW HOME MARKET Annual Starts by Price Range The Detached Market 2006 2007 2008 2009 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 <$150 $150- $200- $300- $500- >$750 $200 $300 $500 $750 © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 21
  • 22. TOTAL NEW HOME INVENTORY TREND (Under Construction & Finished Vacant Units) Detached Housing 10,000 9,000 Under. Const. Inv. = 1,420 Units 8,000 Fin. Vac. Inv. = 1,703 Units Total Inv. = 3,494 Units 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 4Q89 4Q91 4Q93 4Q95 4Q97 4Q99 4Q01 4Q03 4Q05 4Q07 4Q09 © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 22
  • 23. THE AUSTIN NEW HOME MARKET Annual Starts/ Vacant Developed Lot Trend Lot Inventory MOS 30,000 The Detached Market 48 Annual Starts Vacant Developed Lots Months of Supply 42 25,000 36 20,000 30 24 15,000 18 12 10,000 6 5,000 0 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 23
  • 24. FORECLOSURE POSTING & SALES TREND Travis & Williamson Counties Annual Rate 13,000 12,000 Annual Postings 11,000 10,000 Annual Foreclosure Sales 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 Annual Postings + 61% from Jan. ’09 to Jan. ‘10 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Annual Sales +24% from Dec. ’08 to Dec. ‘09 0 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-09 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 SOURCE: Real Estate Foreclosures © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 24
  • 25. Top 20 MSAs-Highest Rates of Home Appreciation Annual Change as of 3Q09 Wichita Falls, TX 6.0% Corpus Christi, 5.5% San Angelo, TX 5.4% Hinesville, GA 5.2% Texarkana, TX 4.7% Jonesboro, AR 4.5% Brownsville, TX 4.4% St. Joseph, MO- 3.7% Dubuque, IA 3.6% Midland, TX 3.5% Tyler, TX 3.4% Amarillo, TX 3.3% Wichita, KS 3.3% Abilene, TX 3.3% Lawton, OK 3.3% Sioux City, IA- 3.1% State College, PA 3.1% Pittsfield, MA 3.0% Burlington, NC 3.0% Elmira, NY 2.9% SOURCE: FHFA 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 25
  • 26. Bottom 20 MSAs-Lowest Rates of Home Appreciation Annual Change as of 3Q09 El Centro, CA -24.5% Las Vegas-Paradise, NV -22.5% Miami, FL -20.5% Bend, OR -19.4% Merced, CA -18.6% Reno-Sparks, NV -17.5% Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ -16.9% Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL -16.2% Port St. Lucie, FL -15.8% Ft. Lauderdale, FL -15.4% Visalia-Porterville, CA -14.9% Ocala, FL -14.9% Orlando-Kissimmee, FL -14.7% St. George, UT -14.0% Modesto, CA -13.9% Fresno, CA -13.8% Madera-Chowchilla, CA -13.6% Vallejo-Fairfield, CA -13.5% Prescott, AZ -13.4% Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ -13.4% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% SOURCE: FHFA © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 26
  • 27. STATES WITH HIGHEST SHARE OF NEGATIVE EQUITY AS OF THIRD QUARTER 2009 Oklahoma 6.0% TEXAS 11.0% New Mexico 11.0% Idaho 20.0% Ohio 20.0% Maryland 22.0% Virginia 24.0% Georgia 24.0% California 35.0% Michigan 37.0% Florida 45.0% Arizona 48.0% Nevada 65.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% SOURCE: First American Core Logic © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 27
  • 28. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Houston Dall as/Ft Wort h Orl ando Phoe ni x Mary land Aust in Austin San Antonio MD - C Northern Vi rginia Charlotte Cent Cal Inland Empir e Rale igh-Durha m NoVa-C Chicago © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 Atl anta Salt Lake City So Cal Coast Annual Starts Comparison Las Vegas National Comparison – 3Q09 Tampa San Francisc o Jack sonvi lle Nashvill e Minneapol is Denver 28
  • 29. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Chicago Orland o Atlanta Hou ston Phoenix Las Vegas San Francisco Dallas/Ft Worth So Cal Coast Maryland Inland Emp ire Char lotte Raleigh-Durham Denver Salt Lake City © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 North ern Virginia Cent C al Tamp a Jackso nville National Comparison – 3Q09 San Anto nio Minneapo lis Aust in Total New Housing Inventory - # of Units MD - C Austin NoVa-C Nashville 29
  • 30. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Orland o Atlanta Chicago Las Vegas Phoenix So Cal Coast Hou ston Dallas/Ft Worth San Francisco Maryland Char lotte Raleigh-Durham Jackso nville Denver Inland Emp ire © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 Tamp a Cent C al Minneapo lis National Comparison – 3Q09 Salt Lake City North ern Virginia Nashville San Anto nio Total Finished Vacant Inventory - # of Units Aust in MD - C Austin NoVa-C 30

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