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Report on the JISC Observatory Disruptive Innovation Online Survey
Report on the JISC Observatory Disruptive Innovation Online Survey
Report on the JISC Observatory Disruptive Innovation Online Survey
Report on the JISC Observatory Disruptive Innovation Online Survey
Report on the JISC Observatory Disruptive Innovation Online Survey
Report on the JISC Observatory Disruptive Innovation Online Survey
Report on the JISC Observatory Disruptive Innovation Online Survey
Report on the JISC Observatory Disruptive Innovation Online Survey
Report on the JISC Observatory Disruptive Innovation Online Survey
Report on the JISC Observatory Disruptive Innovation Online Survey
Report on the JISC Observatory Disruptive Innovation Online Survey
Report on the JISC Observatory Disruptive Innovation Online Survey
Report on the JISC Observatory Disruptive Innovation Online Survey
Report on the JISC Observatory Disruptive Innovation Online Survey
Report on the JISC Observatory Disruptive Innovation Online Survey
Report on the JISC Observatory Disruptive Innovation Online Survey
Report on the JISC Observatory Disruptive Innovation Online Survey
Report on the JISC Observatory Disruptive Innovation Online Survey
Report on the JISC Observatory Disruptive Innovation Online Survey
Report on the JISC Observatory Disruptive Innovation Online Survey
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Report on the JISC Observatory Disruptive Innovation Online Survey

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The online survey used the Fountain Park Sensemaker tool during November and December 2010 as part of the ”JISC Observatory”, a joint project between JISC CETIS and UKOLN.

The online survey used the Fountain Park Sensemaker tool during November and December 2010 as part of the ”JISC Observatory”, a joint project between JISC CETIS and UKOLN.

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  1. Report on the JISC ObservatoryDisruptive Innovation Online Survey December 2010
  2. About the SurveyThe survey instrument was openly available during part of Novemberand December 2010.Visitors were asked to make short statements about potentialdisruptive innovations relevant to Higher Education. Following this,they were presented with a random selection of responses from otherparticipants and asked to rank them by both probability and potentialimpact.Visit Statistics:• 98 visitors passed through all the way to the end page• Median time used 16 min 50 sec• 438 incomplete visits• 287 left at least their background variables• 330 individual responses
  3. Background data (all visits)
  4. Analysis process• Classification of all open answers by theme• Evaluation results for the themes – Probability – Impact• How individual responses fared in the evaluation? – Results for both evaluation boards
  5. Causes of disruption Theme classes• Technology / HW – Responses discussing primarily computers, devices and other hardware-related issues• Technology / Software – Responses about UI, services, software, cloud, social media etc.• Student viewpoint – Responses concerning how students themselves might change or have changed• Institution viewpoint – Potential disruptions stemming from institutions of higher learning - or their replacements• Cost of education – Rising cost of higher education and the impacts it could have• Assessment – How student assessment might change and change the world of HE• Copyright – Ownership of content
  6. Probability• How responses in each class have been evaluated• The size of the bubble indicates relative amounts of responses in each class• Higher = more probable, to the right = more disagreement Average probability + -
  7. ”Probability” – response count and average probability Response Count Average ProbabilityNote: small range of average probability and small sample sizes
  8. Potential impactImpact
  9. ”Potential Impact” – response count and average impact Response Count Average Impact Note: small range of average impact and small sample sizes
  10. Individual responses in evaluation (All responses that were evaluated 5 times or more)
  11. Evaluation board ”Probability” – Top 10 Heading Long description Probabil ity1. mobile technologies Think there will be new mobile technologies beyond the ipad. 91,5 %2. students as clients As fees rise, the expectation from students is that they are in receipt of a service which they have paid for. Could it then 88,4 % be the case that students will believe that they should have a greater say in what they are taught and how and how they are assessed, Demanding forms of assessment that suit their own learning style. Refusing to accept a one size fits all approach?3. For the wealthy The increasing immersion, and ubiquitous access, wont be for all. Those who cannot afford access will become 86,5 % increasing immersion, increasingly isolated, and left out of policy, education, and decision making. the poor isolation Universities prohibitive fees will gradually shift brick and mortar institutions toward becoming "old boys clubs" . Digital education will become the norm for the working class, and those unable to step onto the increasingly high first step of the ladder will join a growing disenfranchised underclass.4. Mobile technology Currently, it is usually the case that though students have laptops for note taking purposes in the class room, they 86,3 % being linked in the download any files from the VLE before or after the session. As technology improves will students want to link to the lecture theatre powerepoint immediately. Will the inevitable it glitches be disruptive?5. Mobile technology and Theres a growing divide between those who use it and those who dont. 86,3 % social media.6. Any time any place any Yep again with the personal computing and mobile internet augmented reality tools are here and are not going to go away 85,5 % where (B&Q have QR codes today that link to wallpaper hanging videos) GPS + personal internet is creating a digital layer today7. Widespread/universal At the moment its mostly just academic staff who have smartphones; this will change. When it does, it will be a lot easier 85,5 % smartphone adoption to use technologies like Twitter or QR code scanning to engage students during and around classes. Well go from the and use. current scenario (students struggle to get 3G signal in lecture theatre and can barely complete a google search in the break) to a system in which its possible to use Twitter (or whatever exists instead/as well) to get real-time feedback, QR codes to send students on data-hunts, and students will do informational searches without really thinking about it (as opposed to now when they often seem surprised to be asked to use phones (social tool) in class (learning setting).8. Devices There used to be a conception that university should provide devices such as laptops or mobile phones for students. But 85,2 % increasingly users want control over their own devices and may already have something. Therefore we need to be able to accommodate multiple devices.9. Teaching structured Information-delivery in classes is going to look very silly and old-fashioned when all the students have the internet in their 85,1 % around "lets find out" jeans pocket. Innovation is HE should mean putting fast wireless broadband in all the teaching rooms and everyones phone being used at some point during classes (and afterwards) to find stuff out. Lessons need to be shaped around information-hunting and information-filtering, because those are going to be the defining 21st-century skills. I hope that smartphones and more technology-savvy academics will lead to teaching that is based on an approach of "well, anyone can find X out, but what use is it to us, and how will it help us answer question Y?" In other words, back towards critical thinking, enquiry, and actual thoughts occurring in the classroom, instead of later or not at all.10. Mobile technologies Mobile technologies are growing increasingly popular among students and staff. They offer the opportunity to change the 85,0 % way we do teaching in terms of participation and access. That could disrupt traditional models, which will seem limited in comparison.
  12. Grid report Strong Signals Emerging issues Ø Current mental model Relevance “No Action” Potential weak issues signals Possible blind spots Ø Deviation“Deviation” indicates the degree of disagreementbetween respondents as to the probability or impact.
  13. Grid report Strong signals – high probability, low deviation – Top 10 Heading Long descriptionmobile technologies Think there will be new mobile technologies beyond the ipad.students as clients As fees rise, the expectation from students is that they are in receipt of a service which they have paid for. Could it then be the case that students will believe that they should have a greater say in what they are taught and how and how they are assessed, Demanding forms of assessment that suit their own learning style. Refusing to accept a one size fits all approach?For the wealthy increasing The increasing immersion, and ubiquitous access, wont be for all. Those who cannot afford access will become increasingly isolated, and leftimmersion, the poor out of policy, education, and decision making.isolation Universities prohibitive fees will gradually shift brick and mortar institutions toward becoming "old boys clubs" . Digital education will become the norm for the working class, and those unable to step onto the increasingly high first step of the ladder will join a growing disenfranchised underclass.Mobile technology being Currently, it is usually the case that though students have laptops for note taking purposes in the class room, they download any files from thelinked in the lecture theatre VLE before or after the session. As technology improves will students want to link to the powerepoint immediately. Will the inevitable it glitches be disruptive?Mobile technology and Theres a growing divide between those who use it and those who dont.social media.Any time any place any Yep again with the personal computing and mobile internet augmented reality tools are here and are not going to go away (B&Q have QRwhere codes today that link to wallpaper hanging videos) GPS + personal internet is creating a digital layer todayWidespread/universal At the moment its mostly just academic staff who have smartphones; this will change. When it does, it will be a lot easier to use technologiessmartphone adoption and like Twitter or QR code scanning to engage students during and around classes. Well go from the current scenario (students struggle to getuse. 3G signal in lecture theatre and can barely complete a google search in the break) to a system in which its possible to use Twitter (or whatever exists instead/as well) to get real-time feedback, QR codes to send students on data-hunts, and students will do informational searches without really thinking about it (as opposed to now when they often seem surprised to be asked to use phones (social tool) in class (learning setting).Devices There used to be a conception that university should provide devices such as laptops or mobile phones for students. But increasingly users want control over their own devices and may already have something. Therefore we need to be able to accommodate multiple devices.Teaching structured around Information-delivery in classes is going to look very silly and old-fashioned when all the students have the internet in their jeans pocket."lets find out" Innovation is HE should mean putting fast wireless broadband in all the teaching rooms and everyones phone being used at some point during classes (and afterwards) to find stuff out. Lessons need to be shaped around information-hunting and information-filtering, because those are going to be the defining 21st-century skills. I hope that smartphones and more technology-savvy academics will lead to teaching that is based on an approach of "well, anyone can find X out, but what use is it to us, and how will it help us answer question Y?" In other words, back towards critical thinking, enquiry, and actual thoughts occurring in the classroom, instead of later or not at all.Mobile technologies Mobile technologies are growing increasingly popular among students and staff. They offer the opportunity to change the way we do teaching in terms of participation and access. That could disrupt traditional models, which will seem limited in comparison.
  14. Grid report Strong signals – low probability, low deviation – Top 10 Heading Long descriptionNo disruption, but evolution HE is quite resitant to substantial changes, so I think there will bei more of an evolution than a disruptive innovation, especialliy in my countrie. I think we will get to HE which cares more about heterogenous learners, inclusive teaching and diversity.The web is everything Weve changed a lot in such a short time, its hard to remember a time when there was not the web. People are increasingly connected online, for better or for worse. Universities have to evolve to fit in this world, but that doesnt mean they have to become entirely like it.Battle of information HE in general is very into ownership: after graduates, intellectual property is the other obvious visible output. Publishing in journals is allownership vs. information about ownership, rights, etc. So there is going to be a lot of resistance to giving that up. But we will have to give it up, because increasingly,delivery. most information can be found on the internet. If universities want to add value (more important than ever now that fees are rising) they will have to innovate in their delivery. Which I think means being less precious about owning the information and more concerned with developing better teaching methods that use emerging technologies. I can see this potentially leading to a research- vs. teaching-universities argument (again).Tools for expressing Used in conjunction with taking students into unfamiliar, unknown online spaces and asking them to express their learning, what connectionscreativity they make in a multimodal way. The discomfort of the unfamiliar together with a choice of tools at hand for expression will help students find a creativity of missed by other learning/assigment modesOpen journals for The PLoS model takes off in the humanities.everythingPersonal Research Profile Researchers are becoming part of linked up Communities of Practice or Research Groups across Institutional boundaries within Virtual Research Environments, however outward promotion of their work and their research is of major importance rather than being hidden away in closed online collaborative environments. So it makes sense for an individual to look outside of the institution and use internationally recognised applications such as Linked-In or ResearcherID (http://www.researcherid.com) to promote themselves and their work. Thus operating outside of one particular institution.AI tools to construct Artificial intelligence tools may be used by people (or other entities) to create objects and environments for test, simulation, design,environments from collaborative (amongst other) purposes using natural interfaces based on the semantic properties and relationships of online resources. Forsemantic resources example, instead of creating a physics test, social behaviour simulation, 3D animation or game using a specific authoring toolset, a general purpose AI tool may be able to create these given natural language commands by translating them (with a prompt-feedback discussion as necessary for correction, augmentation and refinement) via a semantic web interface connection to an Internet of resources, and cobble together the required output in a standard format that can be further manually tweaked or edited by conventional tools. Of course, such a system would effectively be an answer machine; a far more sophisticated version of an automated twenty questions game. Good for playful and serious research, creative inspiration and prototyping, but not very good (potentially) implications on student homework.A nonsense analysis Young people have more time for informal learning and thus pick up new technology - anyone can immigrate, no need to have a physically young brain.We connect internationally National education policies become less and less relevant or useful.with no intrusive interfaceHuman-machine interfaces Artificial memory stores, access to information banks, remote control of cybernetic operatives, turbo boost and time dilation technologies,at brain level mind-to-mind communication over the Internet, collaborative reasoning, brain back-ups, students literally burning out.
  15. Grid report Potential weak signals – low probability, high deviation – Top 10 Heading Long descriptionCrisis in originality may Theres an episode of the South Park animation series where everything a character plans to do has already been done in thelead to digital cloisterization Simpsons animation series, as his friend points out. Having access to a digital world where everything (seemingly) has been done already may have a crushing effect on students. An option might be to (voluntarily, as a cohort) undergo a period of (possibly selective) digital exclusion through term time.virtual worlds that mimicreal lifeseperation of degree Massive growth of AP(E)L, students learning outside of a single inst, only coming "in" for assessment and accreditation, facultyawarding powers and teaching as public rather than student facing and supported by assessment fees.teaching provisionDiminishing reliance on This is really complicated, because universities will want to retain a tight hold of all their intellectual property and the mentalityuniversity-hosted data seems to be very old-school (our stuff has to be on our servers), but as cloud-based data storage becomes increasinglystorage. affordable, universities will have to start thinking about whether its cheaper than maintaining servers themselves. From the student perspective, they will be growing up in a world where cloud-based services are increasingly the norm, so getting them to interact with the cloud will probably be easier than it will be to get academics to engage with it.The obvious place to put Relatively little creative or productive output benefits from being made in isolation on one device.anythingCommunities of practice Professional bodies have to keep up with this and many are not doing so. People can connect directly with others with similarrather than monumental interests, they dont need organisations which wont help facilitate this.organisationsMobile Learning Universities have controlled how students learn and kept the same model of chalk and talk since their inception. I think mobile epitomises the move away from learning in lecture theatres to studenst deciding their own learning methods. Although we do have lots of e-learning out there the domintant model is still campus basedInteresting bit. Technology might bring some interesting contribution, for instance the mirroring of personal tracked data.highly customized Each user can select an existing curriculum or create a brand new one and be able to customize every facet of it. The curriculumcurriculum os owned by the learner (no two learners having the same one).Cloud computing, open IT departments are so intent on security and control at the moment. That is going to have to go.source, socially openworking.
  16. Evaluation board ”Impact” – Top 10 Heading Long description Impact1. Technology will be adaptive We will be able to combine resources, editors, publsiher and recommender systems to advance learning 87,5 %2. mobile technologies Think there will be new mobile technologies beyond the ipad. 87,4 %3. Data Analytics The ability to exploit data for recommender services, tailored by institution, course and student - through friends, or similar 86,0 % clicks - similar to the kind of analysis done by Amazon to encourage you to buy, but for educational themes and areas of interest with papers, multimedia, images and data sets linked. Exposing metadata as linked data will help support this.4. competence based Currently higher education is attendance based - attend for three years and do some work and we will give you a degree. 85,1 % qualifications In the near future a commercial university will offer competence based qualifications - demonstrate that you are good enough - have the knowledge and skills and we will give you a qualification. This will probably by a mixture of portfolio and examination. I would see the provider as offering diagnostic tests - you need to improve these areas in order to qualify / get this grade. They may also offer courses for remediation or broker courses from other providers. I suspect the cost would be around £5,000 (though that is a wild guess) . The key point is that it wouldnt matter how the knowledge / skills / experience are acquired - from a bunch of courses, at work, personal study etc. This would undermine the whole higher education model.5. Teaching structured around Information-delivery in classes is going to look very silly and old-fashioned when all the students have the internet in their 83,2 % "lets find out" jeans pocket. Innovation is HE should mean putting fast wireless broadband in all the teaching rooms and everyones phone being used at some point during classes (and afterwards) to find stuff out. Lessons need to be shaped around information-hunting and information-filtering, because those are going to be the defining 21st-century skills. I hope that smartphones and more technology-savvy academics will lead to teaching that is based on an approach of "well, anyone can find X out, but what use is it to us, and how will it help us answer question Y?" In other words, back towards critical thinking, enquiry, and actual thoughts occurring in the classroom, instead of later or not at all.6. Re think of curricullum design 83,1 % and delivery methods7. Blending online and F2F I am involved in online learning, but engage in daily discussion with many HE colleagues who teach in traditional F2F 82,7 % learning (e.g. programmes. Many of them see online programmes as "other", something entirely separate from the "main business" of the department. I have encouraged staff to consider flipping, i.e. putting course content online -- for students to engage with outside class time -- and using class time for more interactive work, problem-solving, etc. Most staff believe students would not do this, they believe it is too much of a culture shift. I think we *must* do this... the conversation continues!8. Technology independent I can exchange email with others and not have to be concerned about their technology - their email client, OS, device etc. 82,6 % connection I want to be able to message, video call, speak and share with others without having to be concerned with whether they use skype, msn, facebook, moodle, IE, safari, Windows or Mac OS. I want standards based technology for all communication.9. There is no distinction All learning in HE involves online elements and online collaboration. This is the new benchmark of learning. Large lecture 82,6 % between "online" & F2F halls, one-way delivery.... these become relics. learning10. mobile learning mobile devices have never been though of as devices for learning but they are increasingly used for it. people who are 81,7 % otherwise difficult to reach, who do not have access to the internet via pc can now access the internet via their mobile phone and participate in mobile learning offers
  17. Grid report Strong signals – high impact, low deviation – Top 10 Heading Long descriptionTechnology will be adaptive We will be able to combine resources, editors, publsiher and recommender systems to advance learningmobile technologies Think there will be new mobile technologies beyond the ipad.Data Analytics The ability to exploit data for recommender services, tailored by institution, course and student - through friends, or similar clicks - similar to the kind of analysis done by Amazon to encourage you to buy, but for educational themes and areas of interest with papers, multimedia, images and data sets linked. Exposing metadata as linked data will help support this.competence based Currently higher education is attendance based - attend for three years and do some work and we will give you a degree.qualifications In the near future a commercial university will offer competence based qualifications - demonstrate that you are good enough - have the knowledge and skills and we will give you a qualification. This will probably by a mixture of portfolio and examination. I would see the provider as offering diagnostic tests - you need to improve these areas in order to qualify / get this grade. They may also offer courses for remediation or broker courses from other providers. I suspect the cost would be around £5,000 (though that is a wild guess) . The key point is that it wouldnt matter how the knowledge / skills / experience are acquired - from a bunch of courses, at work, personal study etc. This would undermine the whole higher education model.Teaching structured around Information-delivery in classes is going to look very silly and old-fashioned when all the students have the internet in their jeans pocket."lets find out" Innovation is HE should mean putting fast wireless broadband in all the teaching rooms and everyones phone being used at some point during classes (and afterwards) to find stuff out. Lessons need to be shaped around information-hunting and information-filtering, because those are going to be the defining 21st-century skills. I hope that smartphones and more technology-savvy academics will lead to teaching that is based on an approach of "well, anyone can find X out, but what use is it to us, and how will it help us answer question Y?" In other words, back towards critical thinking, enquiry, and actual thoughts occurring in the classroom, instead of later or not at all.Blending online and F2F I am involved in online learning, but engage in daily discussion with many HE colleagues who teach in traditional F2F programmes. Many oflearning (e.g. them see online programmes as "other", something entirely separate from the "main business" of the department. I have encouraged staff to consider flipping, i.e. putting course content online -- for students to engage with outside class time -- and using class time for more interactive work, problem-solving, etc. Most staff believe students would not do this, they believe it is too much of a culture shift. I think we *must* do this... the conversation continues!Technology independent I can exchange email with others and not have to be concerned about their technology - their email client, OS, device etc. I want to be able toconnection message, video call, speak and share with others without having to be concerned with whether they use skype, msn, facebook, moodle, IE, safari, Windows or Mac OS. I want standards based technology for all communication.There is no distinction All learning in HE involves online elements and online collaboration. This is the new benchmark of learning. Large lecture halls, one-waybetween "online" & F2F delivery.... these become relics.learningmobile learning mobile devices have never been though of as devices for learning but they are increasingly used for it. people who are otherwise difficult to reach, who do not have access to the internet via pc can now access the internet via their mobile phone and participate in mobile learning offersrate of change of social institutions can never attempt to keep up with the rate of change of developments in the social web so we have to decide whether to make useweb of everything out there or stay behind our own walls and risk being left behind. Student demands mean we cant pretend to not be aware of what is going on out there.
  18. Grid report Strong signals – low impact, low deviation – all Heading Long descriptionMobile technology being Currently, it is usually the case that though students have laptops for note taking purposes in the class room, they download anylinked in the lecture theatre files from the VLE before or after the session. As technology improves will students want to link to the powerepoint immediately. Will the inevitable it glitches be disruptive?A nonsense analysis Young people have more time for informal learning and thus pick up new technology - anyone can immigrate, no need to have a physically young brain.No more secrets? With the Wikileaks releases of secret data, and increasingly surveillance being available to the general public, the idea of testing knowledge against secrets held in an answer sheet may need to be updated. Tests of knowledge and understanding may need to be uniquely and dynamically created to avoid the possibility that some examinees may, with future technology and data access, know more than they are saying.The obvious place to put Relatively little creative or productive output benefits from being made in isolation on one device.anythingFashion industry? Tuning! What should be de-learned, is the dropping-out game society: only one wins, and others?? Live on social benefits? This thinking scheme has been imposed and taught over and over again by various reality-TV games and idols or top model or designer competitions. Healthy society does not function with only one winner. The Internet / social media should empower everyone to tune up their own profiles and show off their own achievement for recognition. However, education has much to achieve in educating also appreciation of others, and weeding bullying and other bad behaviour models.wikipeadia types Free resources are a great asset but if the resource can be edited by anyone then it may also be wrong and not a reliable source. Already I spend a lot of time, disabusing people of what they think they know, will this extend?HTML5 HTML5 disrupts the way we think about "the web" from being principally around sites and documents to a much richer ecosystem of dynamic, real-time applications. This potentially disrupts all technologies deployed in educationSchool from the cloud A teleoperator has presented functioning prototype of a virtual school desk. All the texbooks and workbooks as well as personal journals and portfolios can be saved into a cloud service and accessed where ever the student wishes to continue their work.Multitasking is the rule Learner who are not able to multitask will loose. The teachers have already lost.
  19. Grid report Potential weak signals – low impact, high deviation – Top 10 Heading Long descriptionMobile Learning Universities have controlled how students learn and kept the same model of chalk and talk since their inception. I think mobile epitomises the move away from learning in lecture theatres to studenst deciding their own learning methods. Although we do have lots of e-learning out there the domintant model is still campus basedFor the wealthy increasing The increasing immersion, and ubiquitous access, wont be for all. Those who cannot afford access will become increasinglyimmersion, the poor isolated, and left out of policy, education, and decision making.isolation Universities prohibitive fees will gradually shift brick and mortar institutions toward becoming "old boys clubs" . Digital education will become the norm for the working class, and those unable to step onto the increasingly high first step of the ladder will join a growing disenfranchised underclass.Part-time and distance This is not strictly an innovation, but since it is likely to grow at a much accelerated rate, due to funding pressures, it is alearning development which promises to be highly disruptive. HE institutions may have to reverse the current approach of regarding campus-based study as their core business, and distance education as (at best) an extra. In my opinion, the VLE will continue to act as a mainstream channel, supplemented by blogs, wikis, Twitter, etc., in some quarters. However, disruption may be more apparent in the synchronous field with increased use of videoconferencing and webcasting systems, including Elluminate. I think that we have only just begun to work with the potential of these, and I can see part-time learners working with these for a good time to come.Games based Learning /tablet PC/IpadMobility of both people,content and devicesserious gaming increasing demand of students to combine fun and learning and to bridge school and free time...more learning outside the The current models of undergraduate degrees are no longer fit for purpose - they are too expensive - some centres need to offerorganisation better value Open University type programmes - blended on-line learning Learners can buy these from lots of places including private and international universities who are going to start competing for fees. Universities and JISC need to get cleverer at sharing learning and teaching resourcesWireless PLN and always Wireless PLN and always on - where we need to be aton Can your institutions get this - technologically or the mindset - and adapt programmes that support knowledge at a keystrokeUse of cloud computing not Geographically diverse users with limited on board computer storage and demands for current and high tech software solutionscentral data silos accessing solutions through the internet both for processing and for storage.a virtual tutor to gide mylearning process towards agoal
  20. The online survey used the Fountain Park Sensemaker tool during November and December 2010 as part of the ”JISC Observatory”, a joint project between JISC CETIS and UKOLN.This report was compiled by Fountain Park.This report is Copyright Fountain Park 2010 but licenced undercreative commons attribution licence:http://creativecommons.org/licences/by/3.0.Please give attribution as ”Fountain Park with project fundingfrom the Joint Information Systems Committee (JISC)”

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