01 기조 연설 로봇, 미래를 말하다 광운대학교 정보제어공학과 김진오 교수
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01 기조 연설 로봇, 미래를 말하다 광운대학교 정보제어공학과 김진오 교수

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01 기조 연설 로봇, 미래를 말하다 광운대학교 정보제어공학과 김진오 교수 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. 1 2009 지능로봇기술세미나 “지능로봇의 연구 및 교육을 위한 방향 제안”, 한국 NI 개최 지능로봇의 제안 , 로봇, 로봇 미래를 말하다 말하다. 2009.05.21 © 2009 Kwangwoon University Jin-Oh KIM, Ph.D. in Robotics (jokim@kw.ac.kr)
  • 2. 2 ROBOTICS는 무엇인가? 로봇 工學 로봇 ROBOTICS 로봇 科學 空學 로봇 돈學
  • 3. 3 Contents 1. What are Robots? 2. Robots: Now and Future 3. Characteristics of Robotics 4. What will make Faster Growth of Robots? 5. Conclusion
  • 4. 4 Joseph Engelberger: Father of Robotics “I can't define a robot, but I know one when I see one.”
  • 5. 5 Washing Machine • Hi all, I'm interested to hear from people what machines they think should qualify as a robot. Which of the following do you personally consider to be robots? 1. A washing machine. 2. A washing machine with temperature control. 3. A washing machine with a conveyer belt to automatically load/unload. 4. 4 A washing machine with an arm/gripper to automatically load/unload load/unload. 5. A washing machine which can move around and collect clothes, with an arm/gripper to automatically load/unload. 6. 6 A washing machine which is sentient and can have a conversation with you you. 7. A washing machine which is sentient and can have a conversation with you, with an arm/gripper to automatically load/unload. Many thanks - Hugo
  • 6. 6 로봇청소기와 청소로봇 Waste Allocation Load Lifter Earth-Class 지구 폐기물 수거-처리용 로봇
  • 7. 7 Definitions of Robot • Things that move: in CMU • Intelligent motion and force: in a textbook • Mechatronic Interface connecting Human and Task/Environment: defined by me • Most simply, things that sense, think and p y, g , act: in a textbook – Th There i no one d fi iti is definition of robot which f b t hi h satisfies everyone, and many people have their own.
  • 8. 8 Core Technology of Robotics Perception (Sensing) Cognition (Intelligence) Action (Motion) IS Robotics(USA)의 iRobot ( )
  • 9. 9 Robot Components Three Aspects of Intelligence (1) High Level of Environment Correspondence (2) High Level of Task Performing Dexterity (3) ( ) High Level of Human Robot Interaction (3) C (2) Task Human Interface Control M Mechanism Performance (1) P Environment Sensing Exploration Energy ne gy Five Elements of R b t I id Fi El t f Robot Inside Three Elements of Robot Outside
  • 10. 10 Robots: now and future 21C, Robots will change our life. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Industrial Robots Transition New Robots Industrial Electrical Many new Industrial Personal Professional Field Robots are Motor used concepts of Robot Service Service Robots born in Industrial Industrial saturation, Robots Robots Robots Robots Personal Robot are No. of Robot born Robots ~ Industry ~ No. of Automobile Automobiles Industry Unimation FANUC PUMA Robot Entertainment Building, Construction, Application Security Hospital, Military, Kawasaki DDARM Maintenance of Agriculture .. expands Education Yaskawa SCARA Public Spaces drastically Home Service Nachi 로봇의 역사는 짧지만 발전속도는 빠르다.
  • 11. 11 Robots: now and future 1. 20 Year Cycle of Technology Fusion and Application Expansion 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Interdisciplinar Inter-industry Digital Digital New New Integration yF i Fusion Expansion Fusion F i Diffusion Diff i Intelligence I t lli Intelligence I t lli with Bi l ith Biology Revolution Expansion Mechanical Robot+ Information Robot+ New Electronics Agriculture Communica Defense Intelligence Robot+ Biotech Electrical and tion different All Industries Computer Robot+ Energy from current and Services Robot+ intelligence Science Construction Home 2. Benefit/Cost > 2 for every 5 years 3. Robot labor cost (16 hours/day) < $1.0 now ( ( y) (2007) ) 4. New types of robots: 2 times more than last year
  • 12. 12 People Are Flexible, But More Expensive Every Year Labor L b cost/hr t/h $60 $50 U.S. Automotive $40 U.S. Electronic $30 Robot Labor (2 shifts) $20 U.S. Food $10 Korea China $0 1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002
  • 13. 13 Forecast of Smart Robots (유엔미래포럼) ( )
  • 14. 14 Market Forecast
  • 15. 15 Toyota의 Personal Mobility y y
  • 16. 16 휴머노이드 종합상사 • “로봇, 미래를 말하다”에서 히로치카 이노우에
  • 17. 17 Invisible Robot – 타케오 카나데 Eye Vision: 2001년 아메리칸 풋볼리그 결승전 CBS방송 - 30대의 카메라로봇을 이용한 시간/공간의 4차원 영상 구현
  • 18. 18 Characteristics of Robots: HRT System y • Necessary to understand Robots as integrated systems of Human, Robot and Task. HUMAN TASK ROBOT
  • 19. 19 Future Robots HUMAN TASK ROBOT
  • 20. 20 Robots as HRT Systems y Systematic Approach for a Given Task Task(T) = ∑ Easy tasks(t) ~ New task (2) (3) (1) (5) (6) (4) Robots(R) R b t (R) Robots(R) Human(H) R b t (R) + H (H)
  • 21. 21 Before and After Robot Application BEFORE AFTER Human - Task human – ROBOT - task Impossible Task human task Robot
  • 22. 22 Fantasy of Robots BEFORE AFTER Human - Task ROBOT - task Impossible Task
  • 23. 23 ROBOTICS의 새로운 정의 Human, Task 이 변화를 DESIGN하는 것 human , ROBOT, task 로봇의 정의: 인간과 작업을 연결하는 시스템
  • 24. 24 I, Robot: Isaac Asimov, 1950 Robot I Robot Substitution Collaboration Human-Robot-Task Human Task T k Robot - Manufacturing - Education - Vacuum cleaning - Health/Medical App - Humanoid - Silver App Hurdle: Social Intelligence Hurdle: Digital Human You, Human?
  • 25. 25 Robots are different? (1) Task Performance is critical. – Absolute performance is not necessary It is enough to necessary. perform the given task(service) successfully. (2) Another I – Robots are friendly for almost all people. – R b t are understood th Robots d t d through hi h himself. lf – Robots can be created by anybody. (3) Technology field than products. – Robot has tremendous application areas. Almost everything. – It is very difficult to define.
  • 26. 26 Meaning of Engelberger’s Definition I can't define a robot can t robot, -> Everyone has his/her own definition. but know one when I see one. b tIk h -> I have my own. y
  • 27. 27 For Next 10 Years Robot industry will grow much faster than before because of: (1) Failure experience: We understand better. experience (2) Education and training: Many challenging pioneers (3) Cost: Robots became cheap enough for many fields fields. (4) Three Mega Trends in Robot Industry
  • 28. Three Trends in Robot Ecosystem (1) Robot Fusion: 2001 ~ – 퍼스널로봇과제, 기획위원장 (2001) – 차세대 성장동력 10개중 하나로 로봇산업 선정됨 (2003) – 차세대성장동력, 차세대성장동력 기획단장 (2003 2004) (2003~2004) (2) Robot Plus: 2005~ 2005 – 로봇종합발전계획(2005) – 차세대성장동력 실무위원장 (2004 ~2008) (3) Robot Rush: 2008~ – 로봇특별법(2008) – 로봇산업정책포럼 의장 (2006 ~ 2008)
  • 29. 29 Robot Fusion • Technology fused into ( gy (integrated into) robots for better g ) performance or new performance – Motor Technology (1970 - ) – Computer Technology (1980 - ) – Sensor (Digital Camera) Technology (1990 - ) – Information Technology (1995 - ) – Mobile Communication Technology (2005 - ) – Understanding Human (2012 - ) – 3D Recognition Technology (2015 - ) – Battery T h l B tt Technology (2015 - ) – New Actuators (2015 - ) – Intelligence Technology (2020 - ) – Bio Technology (2040 - ) • IT companies are ready to cooperate with robotics companies.
  • 30. 30 Telepresence (Electronic Times, 6/25/2007)
  • 31. 31 Robot Plus • Robot+Anything: Combining two domains to create new y g g applications (benefits/values). – Robot+Education: to teach creative problem solving – Robot+Culture/Art: to have better effect – Robot+Illumination: to have dynamic illumination – Robot+Sports: to have better improvement – Robot+Home Network: to have better home environment – Robot+Automobile: to have more comfortable and reliable riding • This trend brings robotists into many new different applications. • That is, robotists are interested in applying their technology to other fields.
  • 32. 32 Robot Plus (Example) ( p )
  • 33. 3 3 Robot Rush • Relying on robots to solve current issues and/or problems to make better world; Problem domains invite robots to themselves. – Issues of energy, environment, and disasters – Issues from super-aged society – Issues from empty agricultural town – Issues from defense/security • This trend is motivated by non-robotists (potential user groups). – All companies ( p (manufacturing p g products and Providing services) g ) – All government ministries – All local governments – All universities and schools – All persons from young to old • This trend is different from Digital Convergence as in Cellular Phone
  • 34. 34 Robot Rush (Example) ( p ) • 2009, 2, 18, Traditional Musical with Robots • At Korea National Theater With Robot EVER and SEROPI
  • 35. 35 Robot Rush (Example) • Mining Robot 2009
  • 36. 36 Three Mega Trends for Big Explosion Market: Lots of New ROBOTs Application Robot Design of New Robot Fields: Plus Order/Standard Rush Robot Technology: Fusion
  • 37. 37 Uncanny Valley y y Uncanny Valley: a hypothesis that when robots and other facsimiles of humans look and act almost, but not entirely, like actual humans, it causes a response of revulsion ( (dislike or disgust) among human observers. ( ) (from Wikipedia)
  • 38. 38 Most Promising Job Fields:10 Years Later • KISTEP’s survey result of 625 p y professionals in Science and Technology, 2009 ( ) (1) Robotics: Excellent for all fields: Expertise, Growth, Income, p , , , Needs, Social Recognition (2) Cognitive Science and Brain Engineering: No. 1 in Expertise and Growth (3) Finance and the related Service: Highest Income (4) Environment and Energy (5) Bio Science and Medical Engineering g g (6) R&D Consulting (7) Ubiquitous and Cyber related (8) Safety in Life (9) Culture and Advertisement (10) Health and Silver KISTEP: Korea Institute of Science and Technology Evaluation and Planning
  • 39. 39 Technology Life Cycle gy y Market size Some industrial robots (welding, handling..) (welding handling ) Surgical robots Some service robots ( (Fire fighting ..) g g ) TIME
  • 40. 40 네 부류의 연구원 (1) 시작만 하는 연구원 - 마무리를 짓지 못하는 사람 • 기획가로서 활용가능 • 활과 화살을 준비만 하고 쏘는 방법에 대해 설명하지만 절대 쏘지 않는다 (2) 실패만 하는 연구원 • 관리직으로 활용가능 (Manual 대로 일하도록) • 과녁에서 멀리 벗어나는 사람 (3) 성공만 하는 연구원 – 쉬운 목표 또는 불명확한 목표 • 화살을 쏘고 과녁을 그리는 사람 (4) 성공하는 연구원 (참 드물다) • 실패의 가능성도 있는 성공할 수 있는 목표를 수립하고 • 중간의 작은 어려움과 실패도 예측하여 시나리오로 만들어 서 계획을 세운다 세운다. • 목표(과녁)에 도달하지 못하더라도 여기에 더 가치가 있다 • 실패를 할 수 있지만 발전하는 연구원: 가장 바람직 있지 발 하 구 바 직
  • 41. 결론 • 로봇학: 철학처럼 여러 과학기술분야와 협력하면서 자유자재로 영역을 왕래하면서 융합과 발전을 반복하는 존재 – 히데아키 세나: 로봇, 미래를 말하다 • 올바른 로봇학의 이해 필요: 공학적 실장에서 벗어나야 한다. 봇학의 필 빨리 인간과 작업을 포함하는 사회적 실장으로 넘어가야 한다. 여기서의 목표는 더 나은 사회시스템을 만드는 것. – (예) 불완전한 노인을 완전하게 돌봐주는 로봇의 개발 -> 불완전한 노인 10명을 보조원 1명이 돌볼 수 있도록 인간-로봇-작업/환경시스템의 디자인 - 학생들은 구현 중심으로 배우는 것이 아니라 상상, 표현, 구현을 모두 준비 - 즉 로봇을 포함된 사회를 디자인할 수 있는 능력을 갖추는 것이 중요 • 우리에게 가장 좋은 성공의 방법은 – ROBOT RUSH를 찾아 ROBOT PLUS와의 조화로운 만남을 연결시키는 것