DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07
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    DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07 DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07 Presentation Transcript

    • Victoria Oil and Gas Plc.West Medvezhye License AreaA Review of Selected Prospects July 2006
    • Agenda• The West Medvezhye license• Prospective Horizons• Wells 103, 105, 107, 109• Probabilistic Analysis• Gross Prospective Resources
    • The West Medvezhye License Area• Located in the Nadym-Pur hydrocarbon province just east of the Ob Bay• Just west of the Medvezhye field – A large Cenomanian (PK1) field – EUR 1.6 1012 m3 of dry gas• Good quality 2D seismic data• Potential structural and stratigraphic traps• Prospects exist in the Upper Neocomian reservoirs, Neocomian Shelf Complex, Achimov clinoforms, and Jurassic reservoirs
    • West Medvezhye and the Surrounding Area West Medvezhyе Field Urengoi Field Medvezhye Field
    • West Medvezhye and the Surrounding Area AY YAB KA OBS EAST- MEDVEZHIE Medvezhiya 3 MEDVEZHIE
    • Generalized View of West Siberian Geology Shallow water – upper shelfLowstand Prograding shelf edgewedge –IncisedCanyon Base of slope – deep water Bajenov – basinal facies
    • Prospective Horizons• Upper Neocomian - Upper Delta Facies• Lower Neocomian – Shelf Edge Facies• Achimov – Neocomian Base of Slope Fans• Jurassic – Continental Deposits
    • Upper Neocomian Prospects 105• BN1, BN4, BN5, BN7, BN8• Thin, laterally variable shallow marine sand and sand-silt deposits• 4-way closures 109• Northwest portion of the license 107 103
    • Neocomian Shelf Prospects 105• BN9-3, BN10, BN11, BN12• Major risks: reservoir and trap• Requires a stratigraphic trapping 109 component to be successful 107 103
    • Achimov Prospects 105• Achimov BN11, BN12, and BN13• Lower slope sands and silts• Major risks: reservoir and trap 109• Stratigraphic and stratigraphic- structural traps along strike or across 3-way structural closures 107 103
    • Jurassic Prospects 105• Several potential Jurassic reservoir segments• Non-marine sandstones associated with channel features 109• Stratigraphic and structural trapping along strike or across 3-way structural closures 107• Reservoir quality rock will depend on natural fracturing for most prospects evaluated. 103
    • Proposed Locations (Wells 103, 105, 107, 109)
    • Well 103• BN-10 High Energy, BN-11 Central, BN-12 South: Shelf edge, outer delta sands. Up-dip pinchout• Secondary targets: Achimov, Jurassic• TD 3,900 meters Gross Prospective Resources Unadjusted Pg Adjusted Best Best Estimate Estimate Depth Gas Pg Gas Condensate Prospect (m) (109ft3) (decimal) (109ft3) (103 bbl) BN10 HE 3,112 355.8 .180 64.0 3,202 BN11 C 3,323 132.1 .238 31.4 1,575 BN12 S 3,621 150.9 .238 35.9 1,805 Totals 638.9 .206 131.3 6,582
    • Well 103 103W E BN9 BN10 BN11-0 BN11 Achimov Bajenov
    • Well 103W E Achimov – deepwater fans BN12 BN13
    • Well 105 • BN1,2,3,7,8 – Stacked upper delta sands, 4 way closure • BN9-3 – Outer delta sand draped across structure • TD 3,700 meters Top BN9 Gross Prospective Resources Unadjusted Pg Adjusted Best Best Estimate Estimate Prospect Depth Gas Pg Gas Condensate (m) (109ft3) (decimal) (109ft3) (103 bbl)BN1,2,3,7,8 2,800 559.0 .295 164.9 5,452BN9-3 3,080 74.9 .252 18.9 945Totals 633.9 .290 183.8 6,397
    • Well 105 W Line 3588002 E BN5 BN10 BN11-0 Bajenov
    • Well 105 S N
    • BN10 Structure Well 107 • BN10 NW – Amplitude Anomaly • Fan1 – Lowstand wedge, BN11-0 to BN10 • Achimov 12 Central – Stratigraphic trap into saddle • TD 3,700 meters Gross Prospective Resources Unadjusted Pg Adjusted Best Best Estimate Estimate Prospect Depth Gas Pg Gas Condensate (m) (109ft3) (decimal) (109ft3) (103 bbl)BN10 NW 3,210 205.1 .180 36.9 1,833Fan 1 3,310 1,185.6 .158 186.7 9,289Ach-12 Cent 3,540 124.2 .208 25.8 1,286Total 1,514.9 .165 249.4 12,408
    • Well 107 BN10 Northwest – Amplitude Anomaly
    • Well 107W Dip Line 4004007 EBn 10 Hi AmpBn 9Fan 1 Achimov Bajenov
    • Well 107 Strike Line 4004011S N Fan 1 Ach Pinchout
    • Well 109 Bajenov Structure• BN11 North – Up-dip Pinch-out• Achimov 11 North Anticline – Broad sand fairway• TD 3,750 meters Gross Prospective Resources Unadjusted Pg Adjusted Best Best Estimate Estimate Prospect Depth Gas Pg Gas Condensate (m) (109ft3) (decimal) (109ft3) (103 bbl) BN11 N 3,310 652.0 .158 102.7 5,172 Ach-11 N 3,650 648.6 .208 134.8 6,670 Total 1,300.6 .183 237.5 11,842
    • Well 109NW 36 SE 101 102 31 63 109
    • Probabilistic Analysis• Standard probabilistic methods• Probabilistic distributions of various parameters were based on known data, analogy, and experience• 25 prospects evaluated• Each prospect was risked by the probability of geologic success (Pg), but probability of economic success factors (Pe) and threshold economic field size (TEFS) were not considered.• Utilized truncated normal or truncated lognormal distributions to model all variables• Pg adjusted prospective resources are not comparable to contingent resources or reserves
    • Estimated Prospective Gas and Condensate Resources as of June 30, 2006 Prospective Gas Resources Prospective Condensate R Probability Probability Best of Geologic Pg-Adjusted Pg-Adjusted Best of GeologicWell Estimate Success, Pg Best Estimate Best Estimate Estimate Success, Pg Prospect (106ft3) (decimal) (106ft3) (106BOE) (103bbl) (decimal)Well 103 Bn10HiEnergy 355,799.1 0.180 64,043.8 10,674.0 17,790.8 0.180 BN-11 Central 132,109.6 0.238 31,389.2 5,231.5 6,629.6 0.238 Bn12South 150,945.4 0.238 35,864.6 5,977.4 7,598.2 0.238Totals Well 103 638,854.1 0.206 131,297.6 21,882.9 32,018.7 0.206Well 105 Bn-9-3 West 74,918.0 0.252 18,879.3 3,146.6 3,751.1 0.252 NW Closure 558,984.5 0.295 164,894.0 27,482.3 20,191.4 0.270Totals Well 105 633,902.5 0.290 183,773.3 30,628.9 23,942.6 0.267Well 107 Bn10 NW 205,107.8 0.180 36,919.4 6,153.2 10,185.3 0.180 Fan 1 1,185,640.0 0.158 186,738.3 31,123.1 58,976.0 0.158 Achimov 12 Central 124,188.3 0.208 25,818.7 4,303.1 6,183.2 0.208Totals Well 107 1,514,936.1 0.165 249,476.4 41,579.4 75,344.5 0.165Well 109 BN-11 North 652,010.8 0.158 102,691.7 17,115.3 32,839.5 0.158 Achimov 11 North Anticline 648,578.6 0.208 134,839.5 22,473.3 32,084.5 0.208Totals Well 109 1,300,589.4 0.183 237,531.2 39,588.6 64,924.0 0.182Undesignated BN12 NE 130,655.3 0.144 18,814.4 3,135.7 6,539.4 0.144 Achimov 12 North Forked 262,484.4 0.135 35,435.4 5,905.9 13,062.6 0.135 Fan 3 238,445.6 0.158 37,555.2 6,259.2 11,930.6 0.158 Achimov 13 383,695.6 0.189 72,518.5 12,086.4 19,124.5 0.189Totals Undesignated 1,015,280.9 0.162 164,323.5 27,387.2 50,657.1 0.162Subtotals Planned Wells 4,088,282.1 0.196 802,078.5 133,679.8 196,229.8 0.190 Undesignated Wells 1,015,280.9 0.162 164,323.5 27,387.2 50,657.1 0.162Grand Totals 5,103,563.0 0.189 966,402.0 161,067.0 246,886.9 0.184Notes: 1. Application of Pg does not equate prospective resources to contingent resources or reserves. 2. Best estimates in this table are expected values (EV). 3. Only EVs can be arithmetically summed; P90, P50, and P10 cannot be arithmetically summed. 4. Pg is defined as the probability of discovering reservoirs which flow petroleum at a measurable rate. 5. Recovery efficiency is applied to prospective resources in this table. 6. Pg has been rounded for presentation purposes. 7. Gas is converted to oil equivalent using a factor of 6,000 cubic feet of gas per 1 barrel of oil equivalent.
    • Estimated Prospective Oil Resources as of June 30, 2006 Probability Low Median High Best of Geologic Pg-Adjusted Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Success, Pg Best Estimate Prospect (103bbl) (103bbl) (103bbl) (103bbl) (decimal) (103bbl)Upper J Thick 379.9 1,295.1 3,492.3 1,671.7 0.132 220.0JF NW1 286.1 1,013.8 3,155.4 1,477.7 0.097 143.6JF NE 537.4 1,971.5 5,993.1 2,768.5 0.097 269.1JF ECent 372.3 1,376.9 4,495.0 1,975.6 0.097 192.0JF SCent 507.5 1,963.0 5,616.8 2,694.3 0.097 261.9JF SWCent 109.2 442.2 1,272.1 629.3 0.097 61.2JF SW 292.0 1,091.6 3,460.2 1,564.8 0.097 152.1JF NW2 288.3 1,069.2 3,239.1 1,482.4 0.097 144.1JF NCentral 697.7 2,567.5 7,389.0 3,486.4 0.097 338.9JF Central 883.3 3,406.4 9,759.7 4,693.2 0.097 456.2LJ Channel 483.6 1,640.8 4,334.5 2,165.8 0.132 285.1Statistical Aggregate 14,244.0 22,749.8 37,309.5 24,609.7 0.103 2,524.2Notes: 1. Low, median, best, and high estimates follow the SPE/WPC/AAPG guidelines for prospective resources. 2. Application of Pg does not equate prospective resources to contingent resources or reserves. 3. Low, median, best, and high estimates in this table are P90, P50, EV, and P10, respectively. 4. Only EVs can be arithmetically summed; P90, P50, and P10 cannot be arithmetically summed. 5. Pg is defined as the probability of discovering reservoirs which flow petroleum at a measurable rate. 6. Recovery efficiency is applied to prospective resources in this table. 7. Pg has been rounded for presentation purposes.