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Morgan Stanley: Economy and Internet Trends 2009

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Morgan Stanley: Economy and Internet Trends 2009 - Presentation Transcript

  1. Economy + Internet Trends October 20, 2009 Web 2.0 Summit – San Francisco mary.meeker@ms.com / scott.devitt@ms.com / liang.wu@ms.com www.morganstanley.com/techresearch Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Customers of Morgan Stanley in the US can receive independent, third-party research on companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at www.morganstanley.com/equityresearch or can call 1-800-624-2063 to request a copy of this research. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
  2. Economy + Internet Trends Outline • Financial Market + Economy Update / Dashboard 1. Financial Markets Have Rebounded, Technology Sector = Relatively Impressive. 2. Leading Economic Indicators Seem to Have Turned Corner, Coincident / Lagging Indicators Still Weak. • Mobile = Incremental Driver of Internet User / Usage Growth 1. Mobile Internet Usage Is and Will Be Bigger than Most Think. 2. Apple Mobile Share Should Surprise on Upside Near-Term. 3. Next Generation Platforms (Social Networking + Mobile) Driving Unprecedented Change in Communications + Commerce. 4. Mobile in Japan + Desktop Internet Provide Roadmaps for Mobile Growth + Monetization. 5. 3G Adoption / Trends Vary By Geography. 6. Carriers in USA / W. Europe Face Surging Network Demand But Uncertain Economics. 7. Regulators Can Help Advance / Slow Mobile Internet Evolution. 8. Mobile-Related Share Shifts Will Create / Destroy Material Shareholder Wealth. 2
  3. Financial Market + Economy Update / Dashboard Financial Markets Have Rebounded, Technology = Relatively Impressive. 3
  4. Stock Market = Often a Leading Indicator of Economic Growth Russia +181% vs. 36-Month Low / India +109% / China +72% / USA (S&P500) +59% 400 2007 2008 2009 350 300 Indexed Value (base = 100) 250 200 150 100 50 0 10/06 1/07 4/07 7/07 10/07 1/08 4/08 7/08 10/08 1/09 4/09 7/09 10/09 S&P 500 NASDAQ Composite Index China Shanghai SE Composite India SENSEX Russia RTS Crude Oil (NYM $/bbl) Gold (NYM $/ozt) Japan Nikkei 225 Note: all indices start at a value of 100 on 3/17/06; data as of 3/18/09; Source: FactSet. 4
  5. Credit Spreads Narrowing = Easier to Borrow Money But Borrowing Cost Still High vs. ‘Normal’ Credit Spreads (to U.S. Treasury Securities), 1925 – 2009 YTD Option-Adjusted Spread to Treasury (bps) 600 400 Current (10/09) Level: 299 bps 200 0 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 BBBs (to Treasury) AAA/AA (to Treasury) Note: Data as of 10/09. Source: Moody’s, Yield Book, Morgan Stanley Credit Strategy Research. 5
  6. Stock Market Volatility Implies Relatively Stable Outlook Volatility Index (VIX) Has Returned Near ‘Normal’ Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, 1990 – 2009 YTD 80 60 VIX Index Value (%) 20-Year 40 Average 20 0 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Note: Data as of 10/09. VIX is a measure of implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. Source: FactSet. 6
  7. S&P500 Positive Earnings Estimate Revisions Rising After Largest Cuts in 20 Years (in C2008 / CQ1:09) Consensus S&P 500 EPS Trends, 2001 – 2011E $130 S&P500 Earnings Per Share ($) $110 Rolling 12 month Forward EPS 2011E $90 2007 2006 2010E 2005 2008 $70 2004 2003 2009E $50 2001 2002 $30 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E Note: S&P 500 earnings estimate based on consensus forecasts, as of 10/09. Source: IBES, Jason Todd, Morgan Stanley Research. 7
  8. Technology Sector Shining Relative to Others 19% of S&P500 Market Capitalization vs. 15% in 2008 S&P 500 Sector Market Capitalization Share, 1995 – 2009 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* InformationTechnology Information Technology 9% 12% 12% 18% 29% 21% 18% 14% 18% 16% 15% 15% 17% 15% 19% Financials 13 15 17 15 13 17 18 20 21 21 21 22 18 13 16 Health Care 11 10 11 12 9 14 14 15 13 13 13 12 12 15 13 Energy 9 9 8 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 9 10 13 13 12 Consumer Staples 13 13 12 11 7 8 8 9 11 10 9 9 10 13 11 Industrials 13 13 12 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 12 11 10 Consumer Discretionary 13 12 12 13 13 10 13 13 11 12 11 11 8 8 9 Utilities 5 4 3 3 2 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 Materials 6 6 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 Telecom Services 9 7 7 8 8 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 S&P 500 Mkt Cap ($T) $5 $6 $8 $10 $12 $12 $10 $8 $10 $11 $11 $13 $13 $8 $10 Note: Data as of year end for 1995 – 2008, *2009 data as of 10/15/09, Green = largest sector by market capitalization. Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research. 8
  9. Intel as Proxy For Technology Spending CQ3:09 Revenue (+17% Q/Q) = Highest CQ3 Sequential Growth in 30+ Years $12,000 Intel Revenue & Y/Y Growth Rate, CQ1:96 – CQ4:09E 40% 30% $10,000 Average Y/Y Growth = 5% Quarterly Revenue ($MM) 20% $8,000 Y/Y Growth (%) 10% $6,000 0% $4,000 -10% Similar Patterns $2,000 -20% $ -30% CQ4:09E CQ1:96 CQ3:96 CQ1:97 CQ3:97 CQ1:98 CQ3:98 CQ1:99 CQ3:99 CQ1:00 CQ3:00 CQ1:01 CQ3:01 CQ1:02 CQ3:02 CQ1:03 CQ3:03 CQ1:04 CQ3:04 CQ1:05 CQ3:05 CQ1:06 CQ3:06 CQ1:07 CQ3:07 CQ1:08 CQ3:08 CQ1:09 CQ3:09 Revenue ($MM) Y/Y Growth (%) Note: CQ4:09E based on midpoint of company guidance issued on 10/13/09. Source: Intel, FactSet. 9
  10. Global Technology Revenue Estimates Imply Recovery…So Far, a 2001 Redux $600 Global Technology Sector Revenue & Y/Y Growth, CQ1:96 – CQ4:09E 40% 30% $500 Average Y/Y Growth = 10% 20% Quarterly Revenue ($B) $400 Y/Y Growth (%) 10% $300 0% $200 Similar Patterns -10% $100 -20% $ -30% CQ1:96 CQ3:96 CQ1:97 CQ3:97 CQ1:98 CQ3:98 CQ1:99 CQ3:99 CQ1:00 CQ3:00 CQ1:01 CQ3:01 CQ1:02 CQ3:02 CQ1:03 CQ3:03 CQ1:04 CQ3:04 CQ1:05 CQ3:05 CQ1:06 CQ3:06 CQ1:07 CQ3:07 CQ1:08 CQ3:08 CQ1:09 CQ3:09E CQ4:09E Revenue ($B) Y/Y Growth (%) Note: Revenue / Y/Y Growth / CQ3 / CQ4:09E estimates compiled from 435 publicly traded global technology companies, data as of 10/15/09. Source: FactSet, Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research. 10
  11. Technology IPO Market 2x Deal Volume…4x Dollar Volume YTD vs. 2008 Annual Technology IPO Dollar Volume & Deal Volume, 1980 – 2009 YTD $30 320 280 $25 10/09 240 IPO Dollar Volume ($B) # of Technology IPO Deal Volume (#) $20 IPOs in 200 Registration - 8 $15 160 120 $10 80 $5 40 $0 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Dollar Volume ($B) Deal Volume (#) Note: Data as of 10/9/09. Source: Securities Data Corp., Colin Stewart, Morgan Stanley GCM. 11
  12. Financial Market + Economy Update / Dashboard Leading Economic Indicators Seem to Have Turned Corner, Coincident / Lagging Indicators Still Weak. 12
  13. Domestic GDP + Consumption Trends Becoming Less Bad U.S. Real GDP vs. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Q/Q % Change, CQ1:05 – CQ2:09 6% 4% 2% Q/Q Growth Rates 0% CQ1:05 CQ3:05 CQ1:06 CQ3:06 CQ1:07 CQ3:07 CQ1:08 CQ3:08 CQ1:09 -2% -4% -6% U.S. Real GDP Q/Q Growth U.S. Real PCE Q/Q Growth Note: Real GDP and real PCE are inflation and seasonally adjusted; Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. 13
  14. Global GDP Growth Forecasts Have Turned Positive…Led by China / India Difference from 7/09 IMF Forecasts, 10/09 IMF Forecasts Country / Region 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2009E 2010E USA 2.0% 0.4% -2.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.6% Euro zone 2.7 0.7 -4.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 UK 2.6 0.7 -4.4 0.9 -0.2 0.7 China 13.0 9.0 8.5 9.0 1.0 0.5 India 9.4 7.3 5.4 6.4 0.0 -0.1 Russia 8.1 5.6 -7.5 1.5 -1.0 0.0 Brazil 5.7 5.1 -0.7 3.5 0.6 1.0 Developed Markets(1) 2.7 0.6 -3.4 1.3 0.4 0.7 Emerging Markets(2) 8.3 6.0 1.7 5.1 0.2 0.4 World 5.2 3.0 -1.1 3.1 0.3 0.6 Note: (1) IMF equivalent of “advanced economies”; (2) IMF equivalent of “emerging and developing economies”; Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) database, 10/09. 14
  15. Advertising Spending Should Grow in 2010E Based on Regression Analysis U.S. Advertising Spending vs. Real GDP y = 3.2458x – 0.0475 20% 1986 – 2008 R2 = 0.6887 y – ad spend growth x – real GDP growth 15% Ad Spend Y/Y Growth If real GDP Ad spend Y/Y growth Y/Y growth 10% is… could be… 5% 11% 5% 4 8 3 5 2 2 1 -2 0% 0 -5 -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% -1 -8 -2 -11 -5% -3 -14 Real GDP Y/Y Growth -4 -18 -5 -21 -10% U.S. Ad Spend vs. Real GDP Y/Y Growth Current MS Estimate Range Linear Regression Line ( y= 3.2458x - 0.0475, R^2 = 0.6887) Note: R2 of 0.6887 indicates that correlation is not perfect (n=23), and correlation does not equal causation. Source: Zenith Optimedia, IMF, Morgan Stanley Research. 15
  16. Retail Sales + eCommerce Growth Troughed in CQ1:09 Adjusted Retail Sales vs. Adjusted E-Commerce Sales Y/Y Growth, CQ3:01 – CQ2:09 40% 30% 20% Y/Y Growth 10% 0% -10% -20% CQ4:01 CQ3:02 CQ2:03 CQ1:04 CQ4:04 CQ3:05 CQ2:06 CQ1:07 CQ4:07 CQ3:08 CQ2:09 US Adjusted Retail E-Commerce Sales US Total Retail Sales Note: E-Commerce adjusted for eBay by adding eBay US gross merchandise volume and subtracting eBay US transaction revenue; Source: US Dept. of Commerce (CQ2:09), Morgan Stanley Research. 16
  17. Consumer Confidence Rising But Still Well Below ‘Normal’ USA Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), 1/78 – 9/09 160 140 30 Year Average 9/09 CCI = 95.06 CCI = 53.07 120 Consumer Confidence Index 100 80 60 40 2/09 Trough CCI = 25.30 20 0 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 Note: Index started in 1967 / benchmarked to 1985=100. The Index is calculated each month on the basis of a household survey of consumers' opinions on current conditions and future expectations of the economy. Source: The Conference Board, 9/09. 17
  18. Manufacturing Returning to ‘Normal’ 80 U.S. PMI (Purchasing Managers Index), 1/48 – 9/09 PMI > 50 = 70 Expansion 60-year Average 9/09 = 52.6 PMI=52.6 60 ISM PMI Index (%) 50 40 10/01 2/91 PMI < 50 PMI=40.8 PMI=39.4 = 5/82 Contraction PMI=35.5 30 12/08 PMI=32.9 20 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Note: PMI is a composite index based on five major indicators including: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries, and employment environment. A PMI index over 50 indicates that manufacturing is expanding while anything below 50 means that 18 the industry is contracting. Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
  19. Risk Low Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Implies Weak Demand USA Capacity Utilization, 1/67 – 8/09 95% 90% 40 Year Average = 81% Capacity Utilization (%) 85% 80% 75% 8/09 70% 70% 65% 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Note: Capacity utilization measures the percentage of plant capacity being used, and is calculated as the ratio of actual output to 19 potential output. Source: Federal Reserve, 8/09.
  20. Risk New Home Sales Off Historic Lows But Way Below ‘Normal’ USA Monthly New Houses Sold, 1/63 – 8/09 1400 1200 45 Year Average 8/09 # of Monthly New Home Sold (000) = 688K 429K 1000 800 600 400 1/09 Trough 329K 200 0 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 8/09. 20
  21. Risk Consumer Credit Card Defaults Rising U.S. Consumer Credit Card Delinquency Rates, CQ1:91 – CQ2:09 4% % of Credit Card Payments Past Due 3% 2% 1% 0% CQ1:91 CQ1:93 CQ1:95 CQ1:97 CQ1:99 CQ1:01 CQ1:03 CQ1:05 CQ1:07 CQ1:09 30-89 Days Past Due 90+ Days Past Due 30-89 Days Past Due 18-Year Average 90+ Days Past Due 18-Year Average Source: FDIC Commercial Bank Database, Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley Research. 21
  22. Risk Residential Mortgage Defaults at All-Time Highs & Rising Residential Mortgages Delinquency Rates, All / Prime / Subprime, CQ1:98 – CQ2:09 25% CQ2:09 Subprime Default Rate = 25% Delinquency Rates (%) 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 All U.S. Mortgages Prime Mortgages Subprime Mortgages Note: Delinquencies limited to mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties, seasonally adjusted. CQ2:09 overall delinquency rate of 9.24% is the highest on record since CQ1:72 when data first became 22 available. Source: Mortgage Bankers Association.
  23. Risk Commercial Mortgage Defaults Rising Total CMBS (Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities) Outstanding & Delinquency Rates, 1/02 – 9/09 800 9/09 5% 4.06% 4% CMBS Delinquency Rates (%) Total CMBS Outstanding ($B) 600 8 Year Average 3% Delinquency Rate = 1.17% 400 2% 200 1% - 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total CMBS Outstanding CMBS Delinquency Rates Note: CMBS is A type of mortgage-backed security that is secured by the loan on a commercial property. 23 Source: TREPP, 9/09.
  24. Risk Unemployment High & Rising – USA at 10% in 9/09 vs. 6% Y/Y U.S. State Unemployment Rates, 5-yr Lows vs. 8/08 vs. 8/09 17% 15% 15% 13% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% Unemployment Rate 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 11% 10% 10% 9% 8% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 7% 7% 5% 5% 3% a y ia ia is a a n a a e o nd C an m ck ad in se id in go hi D rn rg no g la ba ol or ol O tu es ev n hi ifo re eo i Is Ill ar ar to Fl la en ic O nn N G al de C C ng A M K C Te th h ho hi ut or as R So N W 5-yr Low Aug-08 Aug-09 8/09 National Average Note: 9/09 preliminary USA unemployment rate = 9.8%; 9/09 state unemployment rates not available as of 10/15/09. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Morgan Stanley Research. 24
  25. Risk Unemployment Peak = Typically Key for Sustainable Economic Turn S&P 500 Index & U.S. Unemployment Rates, 1928 - 2009 10000 30% 25% 1000 S&P 500 Index Value (Log Scale) Unemployment Rate 20% 100 15% 10% 10 5% 1 0% 1928 1933 1938 1943 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Recessions S&P 500 Index Price Unemployment Rate Unemployment Peak Note: Unemployment rates from 1928–1943 are annual estimates from John Dunlop and Walter Galenson’s Labor in the Twentieth Century (1978); data unavailable between 1943-1948; Post 1948 unemployment data from BLS, peaks are: 9/49 - 7.9%; 9/54 - 6.1%; 7/58 - 7.5%; 5/61 – 7.1%; 8/71 - 6.1%; 5/75 - 9.0%; 11/82 - 10.8%; 6/92 - 7.8%; 7/03 - 6.3%. Latest data shows 9/09 unemployment rate at 9.8%, 100 basis points below 11/82 peak. 25 Source: FactSet; Bureau of Labor Statistics. Morgan Stanley Research.
  26. Risk Debt Levels at Historic Levels & Rising, USA Government Leading Charge U.S. Domestic Credit Market Debt as % of GDP, 1929 – 2009 YTD & Sector Share Breakdown 350% 1973 - 2009 % Share of Total Debt Net Increase 359% 1933 1973 2009 Amount ($T) 300% Government + GSE 24% 29% 35% $17 U.S. Credit Market Debt / GDP (%) Households 18 30 27 $13 250% Corporates 51 35 22 $10 GSE Financials 7 6 16 $8 200% Financials 150% Government 100% Corporates 50% Households 0% 1929 1934 1939 1944 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 Households Corporates Financials GSE Government Note: 2009 YTD data as of CQ2; GSE (Government Sponsored Enterprises) debt includes various agency-backed mortgages; Source: Federal Reserve, Ben Wattenberg, The Statistical History of the United States, From Colonial Times to the Present, 26 Neil McLeish, Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley Research.
  27. Risk USA Income Statement = Expenses Exceed Revenue Entitlement Expenses (Social Security + Medicare…) Going Lots Higher F2001 … F2005 … F2009E Comments Revenue ($B) $1,991 $2,154 $2,106 Y/Y Growth -2% 15% -17% Individual Income Taxes $994 $927 $916 Primary source of federal government revenue, varies with economic growth % of Revenue 50% 43% 43% Social Insurance Taxes $694 $794 $891 Second largest source of revenue, but massively underfunding growing liabilities % of Revenue 35% 37% 42% Corporate Income Taxes $151 $278 $139 Like individual income taxes, varies with % of Revenue 8% 13% 7% economic growth Other $152 $154 $160 Includes excise / estate / gift taxes, deposits of % of Revenue 8% 7% 8% earnings and customs duties Expense ($B) $1,863 $2,472 $3,998 Y/Y Growth 4% 8% 34% Fastest growing line item on a normalized basis, Entitlement / Mandatory $992 $1,284 $1,725 causing massive future burdens % of Expense 53% 52% 43% Includes infrastructure / health / education Non-Defense Discretionary $360 $508 $1,440 spending / disaster relief / emergency financial % of Expense 19% 21% 36% (TARP) + economic (ARRA) stimulus packages Defense $305 $495 $690 Steady rise in defense spending related to on- % of Expense 16% 20% 17% going War on Terror Decreasing Interest expense from lower short- Net Interest on Public Debt $206 $184 $143 term interest rates and lower costs for inflation- % of Expense 11% 7% 4% indexed securities Profit / Loss ($B) $128 -$318 -$1,892 $13T gross federal debt outstanding, $110K per Profit Margin (%) 6% -15% -90% household, 2x median annual household income Note: US federal government fiscal year ends in September. Non-defense discretionary spending in 2009 includes “one-time” items such as $549B TARP funds (excl. $70B returned, incl. $100B to Public-Private Partnership Fund; $85B to automakers; $70B to AIG; $50B to Citigroup; $45B to BofA; $79B to other financial firms; $55B TALF; $50B to homeowners), payment of $96B to Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac, and ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act) related spending of ~$120B. Entitlement / mandatory expense include social security, Medicare, Medicaid, and income security (unemployment / food / housing / retirement benefits). Source: Department of the Treasury, Office of Management and Budget, and 27 Congressional Budget Office.
  28. Web 2.0 Summits 6 Years of Internet Trends for John & Tim 2004 – China Internet - Opportunity is Immense 2005 – Broadband - Becoming Pervasive, Driving Growth in Communications / UGC 2006 – Online Video - Building Momentum 2007 – Social Networks - Proliferating, Driving Platform Changes 2008 – Economic Recession - Creates Challenge + Opportunity for Web Companies 2009 – Mobile Internet - Is and Will be Bigger Than Most Think ` UGC = User-Generated Content. Note: Previous / current Web 2.0 Summit presentations can be downloaded at http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch 28
  29. 8 Key Mobile Internet Themes 1) Mobile Internet Usage Is and Will Be Bigger than Most Think. 2) Apple Mobile Share Should Surprise on Upside Near-Term. 3) Next Generation Platforms (Social Networking + Mobile) Driving Unprecedented Change in Communications + Commerce. 4) Mobile in Japan + Desktop Internet Provide Roadmaps for Mobile Growth + Monetization. 5) 3G Adoption / Trends Vary By Geography. 6) Carriers in USA / W. Europe Face Surging Network Demand But Uncertain Economics. 7) Regulators Can Help Advance / Slow Mobile Internet Evolution. 8) Mobile-Related Share Shifts Will Create / Destroy Material Shareholder Wealth. 29
  30. Key Theme # 1 Mobile Internet Usage Is and Will Be Bigger than Most Think Explosive Apple iPhone / iTouch ramp shows that usage of mobile devices on IP-based networks should surprise to upside for years to come and bandwidth suppliers (telcos / cable) face serious challenges in managing incremental traffic. 30
  31. Mobile Internet Next Major Computing Cycle Mainframe Mini Personal Desktop Internet Mobile Internet Computing Computing Computing Computing Computing 1950s 1960s 1980s 1990s 2000s 31
  32. New Computing Cycles Supported by 10x More Devices Opportunities for Semiconductor / Hardware / Software / Services Car Electronics Mobile Computing Growth Drivers Over Time, 1960 – 2020E GPS, ABS, A/V Video Home 1,000,000 Entertainment Mobile Consumer Games 100,000 Wireless Home Devices / Users (MM in Log Scale) Appliances n Cellphone / 10,000 atio Desktop Internet Smartphone r n teg Kindle 1000 ingI Tablet e as PC 10B+ Incr Units??? MP3 100 Cell phone / Minicomputer 1B+ Units / PDA Users 100MM+ 10 Units Mainframe 10MM+ Units 1 1MM+ Units 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Note: PC installed base reached 100MM in 1993, cellphone / Internet users reached 1B in 2002 / 2005 respectively; Source: ITU, Mark Lipacis, Morgan Stanley Research. 32
  33. Mobile Internet Outpaces Desktop Internet Adoption iPhone + iTouch Users = 8x AOL Users 8 Quarters After Launch iPhone + iTouch vs. NTT docomo i-mode vs. Netscape vs. AOL Users First 20 Quarters Since Launch ~57MM 60 Mobile Internet Desktop Internet iPhone + iTouch Netscape* 50 Launched 6/07 Launched 12/94 Subscribers (MM) 40 ~25MM Mobile Internet 30 NTT docomo i-mode Launched 6/99 20 ~11MM Desktop Internet 10 AOL* ~7MM v 2.0 Launched 9/94 Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19 Quarters Since Launch iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. 33 Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research.
  34. Real-Time Wireless Remote Controls Everywhere Number / Types of Cloud-Based Mobile Connected Devices Growing Rapidly  GPS – 421MM+ chipsets sold in 2008E, +57% Y/Y; Cell Phones / PDAs = 60% of GPS shipments  3G – 490MM global users, +45% Y/Y in CQ2, >12% mobile user penetration, rising to 44% by 2013E…Japan / W. Europe / USA already >30% penetration.  Wi-Fi – 319MM chipsets sold in 2008E, +42%Y/Y with 862MM installed base; ~60% of iPhone / iTouch usage may be on Wi-Fi, providing crucial (~10x faster) offload to stressed 3G networks  Bluetooth – 1.3B Bluetooth-enabled units shipped in 2008, +45% Y/Y; 2B+ Bluetooth devices in use Source: 3G subscribers data per Informa, Wi-Fi usage estimates per AdMob, Wi-Fi shipments by Wi-Fi Alliance; installed base per iSuppli, assuming 4-yr replacement cycle; Bluetooth shipment per iSuppli, installed base per The Bluetooth Special Interest 34 Group; GPS shipment per Future Horizons.
  35. Global 3G Subscribers – Wireless Broadband 2010E Inflection Point, Penetration >20% Global 3G+ Subscribers & Penetration, 2007 – 2014E 3,500 43% 45% 2010E: Inflection Point 3G+ Penetration Reaches 38% 40% 3,000 Sweet Spot 2,776 33% 35% 2,500 2,348 3G+ Penetration (%) 27% 30% 3G+ Users (MM) 1,928 2,000 25% 21% 1,503 1,500 20% 15% 1,055 15% 1,000 11% 8% 688 10% 430 500 273 5% 0 0% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 3G+ Users 3G Penetration Note: 3G+ technologies include WCDMA, HSPA, TD-SCDMA, 1xEV-DO, LTE and WiMax. Source: Ovum, Morgan Stanley Research. 35
  36. Location-Based Services Key to Mobile Internet ‘Secret Sauce’ Thanks to the iPhone 3G and, to a lesser extent, Google’s Android phone, millions of people are now walking around with a gizmo in their pocket that not only knows where they are but also plugs into the Internet to share that info, merge it with online databases, and find out what – and who – is in the immediate vicinity…Simply put, location changes everything. This one input – our coordinates – has the potential to change all the outputs. Where we shop, who we talk to, what we read, what we search for, where we go – they all change once we merge location and the Web. – Mathew Honan, WIRED magazine, 1/19/09 Source: WIRED magazine. 36
  37. Key Theme # 2 Apple Mobile Share Should Surprise on Upside Near Term Near term, Apple is driving the platform change to mobile computing. Its mobile ecosystem (iPhone + iTouch + iTunes + accessories + services) market share / impact should surprise on upside for at least the next 1-2 years. Long term, emerging markets competition, open mobile web (paced by likes of Google Android) and carrier limitations pose challenges. RIM likely to maintain enterprise lead for 1-2 years owing to installed base. 37
  38. Momentum Favors Apple iPhone + iTouch Ecosystem Fastest Hardware User Growth in Consumer Tech History Global Cumulative Unit Shipments in First 10 Quarters iPhone + iTouch vs. Wii / DS / PSP / iPod / BlackBerry 60 Nintendo Wii Cumulative Unit Shipments (MM) 50 Apple iPhone + iTouch Nintendo DS 40 Sony PSP 30 20 Apple RIM iPod Blackberry 10 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q10 Quarters Since Launch Note: iPhone launched in CQ2:07; iTouch launched in CQ3:07; iPod launched in CQ4:01; Wii launched in CQ4:06; DS launched in CQ4:04; PSP launched in CQ1:05; Blackberry smartphone launched in C2002. Source: Apple, Nintendo, Sony, 38 RIM, Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley Research.
  39. Mobile Internet Usage Likely a Leading Indicator of Smartphone Shipments iPhone / Android Usage Share Much Higher than Shipment Share Global Smartphone Share of HTML Mobile Page View / Mobile Internet + Apps Usage / Unit Shipments 70% 65% 60% HTML Mobile Page Views Share (Net Applications, 4/09) 49% 50% Mobile Internet + Apps Usage Share (AdMob, 4/09) 43% Global Unit Shipment Share (Gartner, CQ1:09) 40% % Share 36% 30% 20% 20% 11% 10% 9% 8% 8% 10% 7% 7% 6% 5% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 0% iPhone Symbian RIM Windows Android Palm Other Note: Net Applications collects data from ~160MM monthly visitors on mobile devices that render full HTML pages and Javascript. Visits to WAP pages are excluded. Source: AdMob Mobile Metrics Report, 4/09, Net Applications, Gartner. 39
  40. Key Theme # 3 Next Generation Platforms (Social Networking + Mobile) are Driving Unprecedented Change in Communications + Commerce Improvements in social networking and mobile computing platforms (led by Facebook + Apple ecosystems) are fundamentally changing ways people communicate with each other and ways developers / advertisers / vendors reach consumers. Mobile devices will evolve as remote controls for ever expanding types of real-time cloud-based services, including emerging category of location-based services, creating opportunities + dislocations, empowering consumers in unprecedented + transformative ways. 40
  41. Facebook Largest Share Gainer of Online Usage Over Past 3 Years Share of Global Online Time Spent, 6/06 – 8/09 14% 12% % Share of Global Minutes 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 6/06 9/06 12/06 3/07 6/07 9/07 12/07 3/08 6/08 9/08 12/08 3/09 6/09 Yahoo.com Msn.com Google.com YouTube.com Facebook.com Source: comScore global, 8/09. 41
  42. Powerful New Publishing / Distribution Platforms Users Y/Y Growth Comments #2 site in global minutes; 1B+ video views each day, 20+ hours of video uploaded each 445MM(1) +35% minute; #2 global search engine – 17B search queries on YouTube in 8/09 (+80% Y/Y) vs. Yahoo! sites’ 9B searches (+8% Y/Y).(1,2,3) #1 site in global minutes – 6B+ minutes spent on Facebook each day; 2B+ pieces of content 390MM(1) +153% shared every week; 2B+ photos / 14MM+ videos shared every month; 350K+ applications / 1MM+ developers(1,4) Real-time micro-broadcasting; ~5K tweets per second during peak times(5); available via web 55MM(5) +1171% + apps + SMS 3B+ social media interactions per month across 6 web domains / 1B+ cumulative video 55MM(5) +46% streams / ~3K pieces of content produced per day(6) Source: (1) comScore global 8/09; (2)YouTube; (3) comScore qSearch global, 8/09,(4) Facebook; (5) estimated peak time tweets during President Obama’s inauguration in 1/09; (6) Demand Media. 42
  43. New Communications Platforms Facebook = Unified Communication + Multimedia Repository in Your Pocket Messages VoIP Calls Connectivity / Presence provided by Mobile Phone Chat Play Games Wall Posts + Share Videos / Music / Photos / Stories Status Updates 43
  44. Mobile Social Networking in Japan ~3x Greater (and Rising) than Desktop Social Networking per Mixi Mixi’s (Japan’s Leading Social Network) Monthly Page Views, Mobile vs. PC, CQ2:06 – CQ1:09 16,000 14,000 12,000 Monthly Page Views (MM) 10,000 65% 8,000 14% 6,000 4,000 86% 2,000 26% - 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 Desktop Mobile Note: Mixi is one of Japan’s leading social networking sites on PC and mobile with 23MM registered users as of 5/09. It monetizes mobile usage via sales of avatars, customized homepages and other premium services. Source: Mixi, Naoshi Nema, Morgan Stanley Research. 44
  45. Apple Unshackled Mobile Developers from Carrier Walled Gardens Leveraged 100MM+ iTunes Users Trained to Purchase Digital Goods Apple’s Way iTunes on PC Linked Credit Cards / Gift Cards iTunes on iPhone App Store on iPhone One-Click Purchase Tap to Buy Source: Apple. 45
  46. ‘Walled Gardens’ Collapsed Nearly Overnight UK Mobile Users Fleeing From Carrier Portal Sites Mobile Web Sites’ Share of UK Mobile Internet Users 2007 2008 Carriers Google 82% 57% Google 44% BBC 56% BBC 34% Nokia 56% Nokia 24% Facebook 40% Yahoo! 15% Webmails 31% eBay 11% YouTube 30% Microsoft 11% Microsoft 28% Webmails 10% Wikipedia 27% Amazon.com 7% Yahoo! 25% Wikipedia 7% Carriers 22% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Note: Share of users refers to the percent of users who have accessed these sites on a mobile phone during each year; i.e. 82% of UK mobile Internet users accessed Google in 2008, up from 44% in 2007. Source: Nokia Siemens Networks, Nokia UK Smartphone Study. 46
  47. Facebook + Apple iPhone / iTouch Driving Independent / Overlapping Innovation in Social Networking + Mobile Platforms Facebook Apple iPhone / iTouch 390MM users 57MM users +153% Y/Y +166% Y/Y Social Mobile Networking 350K+ Apps 85K+ Apps 500MM+ Downloads 2B+ Downloads Note: Facebook data as of 9/09, Apple data as of 10/09. Source: comScore, Facebook, Apple. 47
  48. Key Theme # 4 Mobile in Japan + Desktop Internet Provide Roadmaps for Mobile Growth + Monetization Mobile Internet development in Japan and desktop Internet business models indicate significant runways for mobile online commerce / paid services / advertising monetization; data access is likely to lose relative revenue share in mobile Internet ecosystem. 48
  49. Japan’s Mobile Internet Revenue Mix Shows Growth Potential for eCommerce, Paid Services + Advertising Mobile Internet Revenue Mix World ex. Japan Japan 1% 2% 100% 2% 4% Mobile 9% 10% 11% Advertising % Share of Mobile Internet Revenue 80% 21% Mobile Paid Services 60% Déjà vu? 88% 86% 40% Mobile Online 66% Commerce 20% Mobile Data Access 0% ROW 2008E Japan 2000E Japan 2008E $194B $6B $43B Revenue Revenue Revenue Note: Mobile online commerce includes retail sales of physical goods and digital / virtual goods such as ringtones / wallpapers / avatars; mobile paid services include travel / hotel booking + mobile banking / brokerage services. Source: Naoshi Nema / Hironori Tanaka for Japan data, Morgan Stanley Research. 49
  50. Mobile Commerce Ramping Rapidly in Japan 18% of Rakuten’s CQ1 eCommerce Revenue Derived from Mobile Rakuten’s eCommerce Revenue, Desktop vs. Mobile, 2004-2008 CQ1:09 Y/Y Growth $1,000 Desktop eCommerce Revenue ($MM) Total Mobile eCommerce Revenue ($MM) Rakuten eCommerce Rakuten eCommerce Revenue ($MM) $800 % Mobile Share of Total eCommerce 21% $600 Desktop 18% $400 Mobile $200 40% 16% 4% 7% 10% 14% $0 C2004 C2005 C2006 C2007 C2008 Note: Rakuten Ichiba is Japan’s leading eCommerce company, eCommerce revenue excludes travel. Source: Rakuten, Naoshi Nema, Morgan Stanley Research. 50
  51. While Vendors / Advertisers Tend to ‘Pay’ on Desktop Internet (via Advertising + eCommerce)… Revenue Mix for Top 50 Global Internet (ex. Data Access) Companies 2008 – $91B Users Pay for Instant Access Advertising 40% eCommerce 35% Digital Content (Music, Video…) 5% Paid Services 25% Note: eCommerce is limited to online retail goods sales; paid services include online banking, travel services…; top 50 global Internet companies ranked by 2008 revenue. Source: FactSet, company data, Morgan Stanley Research. 51
  52. …Users Tend to ‘Pay’ on Mobile Internet (via Premium Services) Mobile Internet - Revenue Mix (ex. Data Access) 2008E – $37B Advertising 5% Users Pay for Instant Access eCommerce 73% Paid Services Digital Content 22% (Wallpaper, Ringtone, Downloadable Game, Music, Video…) 54% Note: eCommerce is limited to online retail goods sales; paid services include online banking, travel services; Source: IDC, eMarketer, Juniper Research, Morgan Stanley Research. 52
  53. Key Theme # 5 3G Adoption / Trends Vary by Geography Regional 3G adoption trends, in part, will dictate geographic advancements in mobile Internet products / services. Emerging markets lag developed markets. 53
  54. 3G Penetration Inflection Points Vary by Region W. Europe + N. America = 2007–2008, ROW = 2010-2012E 3G* Connections & Penetration by Region, 2007 – 2014E (All connection numbers in 000s) 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E Western Europe 79,617 126,724 205,962 299,220 381,422 448,691 499,686 549,615 3G Penetration 17% 25% 39% 54% 67% 77% 85% 92% Japan 72,690 88,434 101,320 110,823 116,581 120,463 123,217 124,770 3G Penetration 72% 84% 91% 96% 98% 99% 99% 100% Asia / Pacific (ex. Japan) 50,163 83,514 151,192 295,230 482,981 693,995 918,063 1,135,626 3G Penetration 4% 5% 7% 13% 19% 25% 31% 37% North America 53,307 83,460 116,575 145,683 177,451 204,835 231,271 260,575 3G Penetration 20% 29% 38% 46% 54% 61% 67% 74% Eastern Europe 8,785 19,918 40,944 72,321 120,291 139,960 166,288 199,977 3G Penetration 2% 5% 9% 16% 26% 29% 34% 40% Middle East & Africa 5,781 18,424 50,409 91,085 165,564 239,805 309,251 383,238 3G Penetration 1% 3% 7% 12% 19% 25% 30% 35% South & Central America 3,126 9,265 21,875 40,448 59,107 80,087 100,027 122,258 3G Penetration 1% 2% 4% 7% 10% 12% 15% 17% Total 273,469 429,739 688,278 1,054,810 1,503,397 1,927,837 2,347,804 2,776,058 3G Penetration 8% 11% 15% 21% 27% 33% 38% 43% Note: Regions ranked by 2008 absolute numbers of 3G connections. 3G* technologies include WCDMA, HSPA, TD-SCDMA, 1xEV-DO, LTE and WiMax. Source: Ovum, Morgan Stanley Research. 54
  55. Key Theme # 6 Carriers in USA / W. Europe Face Surging Network Demand But Uncertain Economics. Global mobile IP traffic likely to grow 66x by 2013E (with 130% CAGR), per Cisco. Increasing 3G / smartphone penetration + emerging usage models (such as video / audio streaming) likely to put significant stress on carrier wireless networks. Carriers will ultimately need to compete on strength of their macro networks, plus availability of Wi-Fi. Scale in mobile market share / full network sharing agreements / co-operation with fixed / Wi-Fi providers will be key. Pricing decisions will be driven by competitive pressure, but will need to take account of potential for VoIP to erode voice revenue. Tiered data pricing (speed, quantity) will likely be key to growing revenue long-term. Source: Cisco, Nick Delfas, Morgan Stanley Research. 55
  56. Heavy Mobile Data Users Likely to Triple to 1B+ by 2013E Wireless modems (1,000MB 3G mobile data consumption per month) / iPhones (200MB) / Other smartphones (20MB) Global Wireless Modem / iPhone / Other Smartphone Users, 2008 – 2013E 1,200 08-13E 1,094MM CAGR R 1,000 C AG 881MM -13E Wireless 08 Modem 155% 9% Users Global Users (MM) 800 12 696MM 538MM 600 iPhone 153% Users 407MM 400 303MM 200 Other Smartphone 123% Users 0 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E Source: Wireless modem forecast per Ovum, iPhone user forecast per Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley Research. 56
  57. AT&T 50x Mobile Data Traffic Increase in Past 3 Years AT&T Mobile Data Traffic Growth, CQ2:06 – CQ2:09 5000 Mobile Data Traffic on AT&T's Network 4000 (Normalized, CQ2:06=100) se 3000 re a Inc 3 2% 4, 9 2000 1000 0 CQ2:06 CQ4:06 CQ2:07 CQ4:07 CQ2:08 CQ4:08 CQ2:09 Source: AT&T. 57
  58. Wi-Fi = Material Portion of USA iPhone Traffic, per AdMob Wi-Fi Providing Some Relief to Challenged 3G Networks Optimized Wi-Fi Can Be… 10x Faster vs. 3G Speed 35MM* 70% Strategic Hotspots Option Cheaper Global Free / Paid For Carriers vs. 3G Networks / Community Wi- Cost Per Bit + 3G Fi Access Points Monthly Data Plans 862MM Devices Large & Growing Installed Base, 2008 Note: 42% of iPhone usage happen on Wi-Fi networks per AdMob 11/08. 35MM Wi-Fi networks discovered / registered by WeFi members, including 275K public free & paid access points; community access points include neighborhood / building / office / broadcasted home Wi-Fi networks. Global 58 total number of Wi-Fi access points likely to be much higher. Source: AT&T, In-Stat, Wi-Fi Alliance, WeFi. Morgan Stanley Research.
  59. Key Theme # 7 Regulators Can Help Advance / Slow Mobile Internet Evolution Potential Supports: 1. Net neutrality enforcement = key to drive decentralized mobile Internet innovation. Key question whether regulators allow continued blocking of bandwidth-intensive apps on mobile or leave it to mobile operators to adopt tiered bandwidth pricing. 2. International data roaming price ceilings (price reductions of >50%) should encourage mobile Internet usage, particularly in Europe. Potential Drags: 1. Copyright protection - proposed laws (France, UK, Sweden) to cut off persistent mobile Internet illegal file sharers likely to encourage development of mobile payment system, but could increase overhead for carriers. 2. Zoning laws could continue to slow 3G network rollout – but network sharing (as shown by Vodafone + O2 in W. Europe) may be a partial answer. 3. China / India 3G licenses (issued in 1/09 / expected in CQ4:09E, respectively) reshape competitive landscape for carriers. High license prices or standards confusion could impede rollout / adoption. Source: Nick Delfas, Morgan Stanley Research. 59
  60. Key Theme # 8 Mobile-Related Share Shifts Will Create / Destroy Material Shareholder Wealth Massive technology changes typically shift dynamics between incumbents / attackers creating winners / losers. 60
  61. Mobile Internet Likely to Follow Timing & Development Patterns of Desktop Internet Market Timing & Development of Internet Market Segment – From Our 1996 Internet Retailing Report Source: Morgan Stanley Research. 61
  62. Technology Cycles - Wealth Creation / Destruction New Companies Often Win Big in New Cycles Mainframe Mini Personal Desktop Internet Mobile Internet Computing Computing Computing Computing Computing 1950s 1960s 1980s 1990s 2000s Winners Winners Winners Winners Digital Equipment Microsoft Google IBM Data General Cisco AOL NCR HP Intel eBay Control Data Honeywell Apple Yahoo! Sperry Honeywell Prime IBM Yahoo! Japan Computervision Oracle Amazon.com Burroughs Wang Labs EMC Tencent Dell Alibaba HP Baidu Compaq Rakuten Note: Winners from 1950s to 1980s based on Fortune 500 rankings (revenue-based), desktop Internet winners based on wealth created from 1995 to respective peak market capitalizations. Source: Factset, Fortune, Morgan Stanley Research. 62
  63. Appendix USA Income Statement, F2000 – F2009E F2000 F2001 F2002 F2003 F2004 F2005 F2006 F2007 F2008 F2009E Revenue ($B) $2,026 $1,991 $1,853 $1,783 $1,880 $2,154 $2,407 $2,568 $2,524 $2,106 Y/Y Growth 11% -2% -7% -4% 5% 15% 12% 7% -2% -17% Individual Income Taxes $1,005 $994 $858 $794 $809 $927 $1,044 $1,164 $1,146 $916 Y/Y Growth 14% -1% -14% -8% 2% 15% 13% 11% -2% -20% % of Revenue 50 50 46 45 43 43 43 45 45 43 Social Insurance Taxes $653 $694 $701 $713 $733 $794 $838 $870 $900 $891 Y/Y Growth 7% 6% 1% 2% 3% 8% 6% 4% 4% -1% % of Revenue 32 35 38 40 39 37 35 34 36 42 Corporate Income Taxes $207 $151 $148 $132 $189 $278 $354 $370 $304 $139 Y/Y Growth 12% -27% -2% -11% 44% 47% 27% 5% -18% -54% % of Revenue 10 8 8 7 10 13 15 14 12 7 Other $161 $152 $146 $144 $149 $154 $172 $165 $174 $160 Y/Y Growth 6% -5% -4% -2% 3% 4% 11% -4% 5% -8% % of Revenue 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 8 Expense ($B) $1,789 $1,863 $2,011 $2,160 $2,293 $2,472 $2,655 $2,729 $2,983 $3,998 Y/Y Growth 5% 4% 8% 7% 6% 8% 7% 3% 9% 34% Entitlement / Mandatory $927 $992 $1,060 $1,150 $1,225 $1,284 $1,351 $1,450 $1,509 $1,725 Y/Y Growth 30% 7% 7% 8% 7% 5% 5% 7% 4% 14% % of Expense 52 53 53 53 53 52 51 53 51 43 Non-Defense Discretionary $345 $360 $432 $453 $452 $508 $556 $490 $605 $1,440 Y/Y Growth -29% 4% 20% 5% 0% 12% 9% -12% 23% 138% % of Expense 19 19 21 21 20 21 21 18 20 36 Defense $294 $305 $348 $405 $456 $495 $522 $551 $616 $690 Y/Y Growth 7% 4% 14% 16% 13% 9% 5% 6% 12% 12% % of Expense 16 16 17 19 20 20 20 20 21 17 Net Interest on Public Debt $223 $206 $171 $153 $160 $184 $227 $237 $253 $143 Y/Y Growth -3% -8% -17% -10% 5% 15% 23% 5% 7% -44% % of Expense 12 11 9 7 7 7 9 9 8 4 Profit / Loss ($B) $236 $128 -$158 -$378 -$413 -$318 -$248 -$161 -$459 -$1,892 Profit Margin (%) 12% 6% -9% -21% -22% -15% -10% -6% -18% -90% Note: US federal government fiscal year ends in September. Non-defense discretionary spending in 2009 includes “one-time” items such as $549B TARP funds (excl. $70B returned, incl. $100B to Public-Private Partnership Fund; $85B to automakers; $70B to AIG; $50B to Citigroup; $45B to BofA; $79B to other financial firms; $55B TALF; $50B to homeowners), payment of $96B to Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac, and ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act) related spending of ~$120B. Entitlement / mandatory expense include social security, Medicare, Medicaid, and 63 income security (unemployment / food / housing / retirement benefits). Source: Department of the Treasury, Office of Management and Budget, and Congressional Budget Office.
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