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Världens eko timme 2

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  • 1. The Anthropocene and “Planetary Boundaries”
  • 2. Twitter Updates “Good Morning!” by JerThorp (via Vimeo)
  • 3. 1995: 40 million Internet users 2008: 1.4 billion Internet users 1991: 16 million access to cellphone 2008: 3.4 billion (52-60%)
  • 4. Can Information Technology Really Help Save the Planet?
  • 5. YES... ...definitely maybe... ...but I wouldn’t take it for granted
  • 6. “iPod Liberalism” by Evgeny Morozov - the assumption that information tech innovation always promotes freedom and democracy “iPod Environmentalism” by Victor Galaz - the assumption that tech innovation always promotes sustainability
  • 7. Hackers and CO2 emission trading (2010) 250,000 carbon credits - 4 million USD
  • 8. Hackers and illegal logging in the Amazon (2008) 1.7 million cubic meters
  • 9. “The `climate consensus’ may hold the establishment — the universities, the media, big business, government — but it is losing the jungles of the web.After all, getting research grants, doing pieces to camera and advising boards takes time.” Christopher Pearson, The Australian Special Interest 3.0
  • 10. What are the long term institutional and organizational implications of information technology in the Anthropocene? Mass Self-CommunicationDecreasing costs for information
  • 11. Bubonic Plage, Surat (India)1994 In 1994 the spread of bubonic plague in the city of Surat deaths of 57 people, significant economic losses, and social and political effects. Over 300,000 people deserted the city (in two days!)
  • 12. Late warnings, information overload and collapse
  • 13. Development of web crawler GPHIN at Health Canada (1995) ProMED - moderated e-mail list hosted by the International Society for Infectious Diseases (1994).
  • 14. “atypical pneumonia”,“unknown respiratory disease”
  • 15. PNEUMONIA - CHINA (GUANGDONG): RFI ********************************** Date: 10 Feb 2003 From: Stephen O. Cunnion, MD, PhD, MPH <cunnion@erols.com> This morning I received this e-mail and then searched your archives and found nothing that pertained to it. Does anyone know anything about this problem? "Have you heard of an epidemic in Guangzhou? An acquaintance of mine from a teacher's chat room lives there and reports that the hospitals there have been closed and people are dying." -- Stephen O. Cunnion, MD, PhD, MPH International Consultants in Health, Inc Member ASTM&H, ISTM <cunnion@erols.com>
  • 16. “All of the sudden, we had a very powerful system that brought in much more information from more countries, and we where able to go to countries confidentially and validate what was going on, and if they needed help, we provided help.And we provided help by bringing together many different institutions from around the world that started to work with us.” David Heymann,WHO
  • 17. Breaking down of the information pyramid
  • 18. Supernetworks Small World Networks Collective Intelligence Three new phenomena
  • 19. Supernetworks “Networks of Networks” - interconnected at multiple levels; information technology plays a key role; complex system Global supply chain networks, financial networks, knowledge networks and power grids (Nagurney et al 2006).
  • 20. There is a bigger "networks of networks" […]. In GOARN you have CDC, MSF and Red Cross.Which you also have in the different coordination groups for meningitis vaccine and yellow fever vaccine. Or in global polio eradication.These are enormous, but some are very small and, you would bring in the global influenza with laboratories and national influenza centers. But that is the “network of networks” which has no substance, no defined substance. It's there, the function, but in a highly chaotic, very undefined way. Patrick Drury, GOARN/WHO.
  • 21. Southern Cone EID Surveillance Network Asian Rotavirus Surveillance Network European Centre for Disease Control, EpiNorth US-CDC Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) over 120 actors and others!
  • 22. Steering?
  • 23. David wanted to take the GPHIN business and what WHO was doing, and develop a "network of networks".These would be highly unformalized, highly unstructured, as chaotic as possible, because if we allowed it to coagulate or set down at any part of the WHO, the apparatus of the organization, […] would start to drag it down […].All of these rules would just slow down what was trying to be done. Patrick Drury, GOARN/WHO
  • 24. Wouldn’t it be great if we actually could map these networks? Hyperlink analysis of major players in EID early warning and response NOTE: Illustration!
  • 25. UN Agencies Cluster US Gov Cluster WHO FAO ECDC Red Cross
  • 26. ECDC International Red Cross
  • 27. What makes them work?
  • 28. Small World Networks
  • 29. Q:What if you are facing some uncertainty of the disease? How do you coordinate your networks? A: Each time we have a suspecting case of fever, or something very wrong, the first thing we do, is that we contact WHO. Immediately. […]. So there is immediate collaboration, so we call them and "send you the sample with the first plane”, or the first car or whatever. So,“please go on with your laboratory and tell us what's going on".That is systematic. Q: So that is not formalized? No, no, but it's not personal.WHO knows that we will always call them if we are suspecting things or something is very bizarre. Dan Sermand, MSF
  • 30. Gulu Ebola outbreak, Gulu (Uganda), Oct 2000- Jan 2001 (224 deaths)
  • 31. Coordination through small-world networks. Is that it?
  • 32. Collective Intelligence - large, distributed problem solving through information and communication technology. Distributed activity is emergent and collective, rather than orchestrated.
  • 33. Monkeypox and the Internet 2003 (Maryland, USA) ”The results of that decision were extraordinary”
  • 34. Adhoc Virtual Network for SARS Etiology 13 laboratories in 9 countries Daily telephone conferences “The good thing is that it isn’t flu. Then well, what is it?”
  • 35. ProMED 1994-2006 #25 054 postings (total) #373 postings included ”Request for information”
  • 36. How Decreasing Costs of Information Processing and Mass Self- Communication Builds Resilience Supernetworks! Small world phenomena! Collective intelligence! They build on the combination btw ICT and personal connections.
  • 37. THE DARK SIDE OFTHE WEB
  • 38. Cyberpessimism POSSIBLE SCENARIOS ICT as a pure “social media” for fun Hackers, spammers and cyber-bullies find a new arena to exploit Rapid assimilation of ICT in markets increase natural resource pressure Special interests 3.0
  • 39. Green Cyber-Utopia Breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, nano-computing and Web 3.0 Self-repairing, automated, low cost ecological monitoring systems A New Green Social Movement 2.0/3.0
  • 40. Social-Ecological Resilience 2.0 ICT4D - with an ecological focus Crowd-sourcing crises preparedness and response (e.g. Ushahidi) Web crawler based ecological monitoring systems Virtual organizations, Collective Intelligence for ecological surprise Green flashmobs Tapping into Technologies in the Pipeline
  • 41. Three forces that are reshaping the Planet The Anthopocene Planetary Boundaries “The Great Acceleration Political shifts towards networked forms of governance Mass-Self Communication Information Revolution
  • 42. Can InformationTechnology Really Help Us Save the Planet? Yes, MAYBE! Don’t take it for granted. The web is what we make it into. If we want to see it evolving into vast information flows of junk, just sit back and watch it evolve. If we really want to transform it into a global phenomena that builds resilience - the capacity to deal with change and continue to innovate and develop, that will require some actual hard work. Collaboration btw SRC and SiG would make a huge difference.
  • 43. THANKYOU victor.galaz@stockholmresilience.su.se twitter.com/vgalaz
  • 44. NeverTake it for Granted!
  • 45. We have the international level, the WHO and the FAO.And at the national level we try to bring together agriculture and human health ministries. […] group involves academics, and a few key people in the agencies, such as Stephan from the FAO, Pierre […] from the WHO, OIE […].You have focal points in the agencies, and you have focal points in NASA, and from 4 or 5 different universities. Jan Slingerbergh EMPRES/FAO That network is a little bit loosely defined, but flexible and effective, you know.When there is the need, everybody jumps in to action. I think the way it works is highly commendable perhaps, because it’s not fringed or wrapped up in an organizational structure. People just make it work because they know each other.And it’s not a larger group to get lost in, the flexibility is there. I believe this is key to the success.