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Världens eko 2010 timme 1

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    Världens eko 2010 timme 1 Världens eko 2010 timme 1 Presentation Transcript

    • Politisk styrning i en sammankopplad planet Victor Galaz Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm University
    • Dengue fever outbreak, Brazil, 2008
    • • Land use change (deforestation, urban sprawl) • Rapid urbanization • Infrastructural development (irrigation systems, creation of new urban ”habitats”) • Eroded health infrastructure in the 1980s and 1990s • ”Quick fix” solutions create more resistant vectors • Climatic factors (El Nino Oscillation trigger larger outbreaks)
    • Dengue epidemic in Brazil, 2007-2008 1. Fast evolving surprise with the ability to create a crisis that cascades across system boundaries, and spatial scales 2. Complex and multilevel underlying drivers 3. Recombination potential with additional stresses, such as poverty, eroded health infrastructure, creates the possibility of an escalation of the crisis.
    • Copenhagen 2009 - Nagoya 2010
    • Resilience capacity to deal with change, stress and shocks, and continue to develop
    • Adaptation ”Bounce back” Innovation Transformation
    • Three forces that are reshaping the Planet
    • The Anthopocene Planetary Boundaries “The Great Acceleration Three forces that are reshaping the Planet
    • The Anthopocene Planetary Boundaries “The Great Acceleration Three forces that Political shifts towards networked reshaping the are forms of governance Planet
    • The Anthopocene Planetary Boundaries “The Great Acceleration Three forces that Political shifts towards networked reshaping the are forms of governance PlanetCommunication Mass-Self Information Revolution
    • Political Shifts •Decentralization ”One of the most important global policy experiments” ”Decentralization can lead to more efficient governance, better link to local context” -> higher capacity to deal with complex problems Forest co-management, water management, ecosystem management, development projects, etc.
    • Public-Private Partnerships Formalized collaboration between state actors and private/ non-state actors Expectation: more flexible and efficient way to reach political aims. Not privatization – not state controlled Water, health, biodiversity conservation, etc.
    • Non-Governmental Organizations Increased number and participation of NGOs, ”think-tanks”, epistemic communities at all political levels. Biodiversity, climate policy, fisheries policy, m.m.
    • International agreements •Increased influence of multilateral agreements on national policy e.g. Kyoto-protocol, EU:s Framework Directives, Convention on Biological Diversity, World Trade Organization, etc 1960: 20 , 1990: 140, 2005: more than 700
    • Centralized decision-making Central policy-maker (e.g. environmental Decision-making ministry) Implementation and monitoring Regional or local state authorities Local natural resource users Behavioral response
    • Decision-making in complex governance systems International norms, agreements Central policy-maker (e.g. environmental ministry) Decision-making, implementation, negotiations, Non-state actors partnerships Regional or local state authorities Implementation, monitoring, negotiations, partnerships Decentralization Local natural resource users
    • Global Environmental Change + Global Political Change Are they compatible?
    • ?
    • ”Good Governance” according to the World Bank: Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, and Control of Corruption.
    • Does ”good governance” lead to better protection of ecosystems? Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of Violence/ Terrorism, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, and Control of Corruption.
    • Forest Cover Change
    • Biodiversity (bird population) High levels of corruption Low levels of corruption
    • Diversity Enhances our capacity to deal with with uncertainty and change. Elinor Ostrom: no ”blue-prints” for ecosystem management. Folke: helps us recover and innovate. ”Portfolio of options to deal with change”.
    • Centralization vs decentralization Decentralized systems + possibility to innovate in the face of surprises, early warning, and prompt response - can be overwelmed by disturbance, fail to coordinate with other ”small” units
    • Centralization vs decentralization Decentralized systems Centralized systems + have overview, track long term changes,possibility to innovate in the + compensate for maladaptive lower units of surprises, early warning, face and prompt response warnings, - too far away to detect early - can be overwelmed by and innovate. Information congestion. disturbance, fail to coordinate with other ”small” units
    • Möbius strip
    • Too Good to be True? “High Reliability Organizations” - organizations with the capacity to cope with both incremental change and catastrophic surprises.
    • Capacity to collect and analyze very large amounts of information, detect early warning signals, and facilitate fast coordination of large number of actors.
    • Capacity to collect and analyze very large amounts of information, detect early warning signals, and facilitate fast coordination of large number of actors. Decision-making dependent on the type of change in environment.
    • Capacity to collect and analyze very large amounts of information, detect early warning signals, and facilitate fast coordination of large number of actors. Decision-making dependent on the type of change in environment. High capacity for learning after crises, strong incentives to report and take initiatives to repair mistakes and cope with surprises.
    • Possible for severe global change challenges? How? Where?