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Per olsson adaptive gov 20120313



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  • 1. Welcome to Stockholm Resilience Centre – Research for Governance of Social-Ecological Systems Shaping change: understandingtransformations in social-ecological systems Per Olsson Stockholm Resilience Centre
  • 2. OutlinePart I BackgroundPart II Insights from empirical studiesPart III Future challenges and research
  • 3. Background
  • 4. There is a recognition for the need of major changein how humans interact with the biophysical system(Folke et al. 2011)But, there is the general lack of understanding abouthow to transform social-ecological systems that arelocked into unsustainable development pathways toimproved trajectories that enhance the capacity ofecosystems to generate services and increase humanwellbeing.
  • 5. Understanding transformations insocial-ecological systems Photo: B Christensen / Azote Photo: B Christensen / Azote
  • 6. Understanding transformations insocial-ecological systems Photo: B Christensen / Azote Photo: B Christensen / Azote
  • 7. Understanding transformations insocial-ecological systems ? Photo: B Christensen / Azote Photo: B Christensen / Azote
  • 8. Text
  • 9. “…some now consider it easier to acceptfuture temperature increases of up to 4[degrees] C or more within this century (alongwith other environmental and social changes)than to pursue transformative strategies toavoid such changes.” O’Brian (2011)
  • 10. Addressing transformations Transforming bureaucracies Institutionalising participatory approaches and processes for natural resource management
  • 11. Theories and frameworks • Social movement theory • Garbage can theory • Punctuated equilibrium • Organizational learning • Transition theory • Social innovation • Resilience theory
  • 12. Transitions in Socio-TechnologicalSystems (Rotmans et al. 2001, Loorbach and Rotmans 2010, Geels and Shot 2007)
  • 13. Transitions in STSRegimes - dominant rule-sets, social networksand organizations, prevailing infrastructuresLandscapes - geographical position of the land,climate, available resources, politicalconstellations, economic cycles, and broadsocietal trendsNiches - small protected spaces in which newpractice can develop, protected from harshselection criteria and resistance from prevailingregimes
  • 14. Transitions in Socio-Technologicalsystems (Rotmans et al. 2001, Loorbach and Rotmans 2010, Geels and Shot 2007)
  • 15. Social innovation• Social innovation refers to new concepts, strategies, initiatives, products, processes or organizations that meet pressing social needs and extend and strengthen civil society• Social innovations can be pioneered by a wide range of actors, including non-governmental organizations (NGOs), community groups, charities, governments, business, academics, philanthropists, or combinations of these groups• Innovation differs from invention in that it does not refer only to the creation of new ideas or products, but also to the process of implementation or diffusion that make promising ideas useful in meeting social needs The Young Foundation 2006, Westley et al. 2006, McKeown 2008
  • 16. BiofuelsA systemic shift to biofuels mightslow climate change but lead to:• destructive land-use change and biodiversity loss• further ecological degradation, regime shifts and lock-in traps in social-ecological systems that are difficult to get out of Grau and Aide 2008
  • 17. Limitations with existing frameworks• tends to miss the ecological dimension of such shifts addressing only the social dimension will not be sufficient to guide society toward sustainable outcomes.• societies may undergo major transformations without improving their capacity to learn from, respond to, and manage environmental feedback from dynamic ecosystems
  • 18. Understanding transformations in social-ecological systems
  • 19. Transformations in SES Gunderson and Holling 2002
  • 20. Adaptability and Transformability • ADAPTABILITY is the capacity of a SES to adjust its responses to changing external drivers and internal processes and thereby allow for development within the current stability domain, along the current trajectory. • TRANSFORMABILITY is the capacity to create new stability domains for development, a new stability landscape, and cross thresholds into a new development trajectory.” Walker et al. 2004, Folke et al. 2010
  • 21. SES transformations• Purposefully navigated transformations of social-ecological systems• Focus on transformations that increase our capacity to learn from, respond to, and manage environmental feedback from dynamic ecosystems• Include redirecting governance into restoring, sustaining, and developing the capacity of ecosystems to generate essential services Folke  et  al  2010
  • 22. SES Transformations cont’d• Systemic change and regime shifts• The incorporation of ecosystem dynamics into the governance system• Innovation and agency, and strategies to overcome barriers to change• Traps and path dependence as well as windows of opportunity for change Olsson  et  al.  2010
  • 23. Insights fromempirical work
  • 24. Understanding transformations in social-ecological systems Window of opportunity Preparing Navigating the Stabilizing transitiona)b) Olsson et al 2004, Olsson et al 2006
  • 25. Transformations in SES - multi-phasePreparing for transformation • Engage stakeholders to identify dysfunctional states and raise awareness of problems • Identify thresholds, plausible alternative states, pathways, and triggers • Identify the barriers to change, potential change agents, and strategies to overcome barriersNavigating the transition • Identify potential crises and use them as opportunities to initiate change • Maintain flexible strategies and transparency • Foster institutions that facilitate cross-scale and cross-organizational interactions and stakeholder participationBuilding resilience of the new regime • Create incentives and foster values for stewardship in the new context • Initiate and mobilize social networks of key individuals for problem- solving • Foster interactions and support of decision makers at other levels Olsson et al 2004
  • 26. Building knowledge Vision and goals in comprehensive framework Social networks Triggers Window-of - opportunityEcosystem Conventionalmanagement management Olsson et al 2004
  • 27. Shadow  networks  
  • 28. Shadow networks • Characterized by political independence and out of the fray of regulation and implementation • Incubators - places to develop alternative policies, dare to learn from each other, and think creatively about how to resolve resource problems • Their ability to link in to the formal political arenas and networks at different levels Olsson  et  al.  2006
  • 29. Shadow networks andtransformations in SES
  • 30. Preparing for systemic change• Generating new knowledge• Building support for the new approach• Developing a vision Landscape perspective and an ecosystem approach
  • 31. Shadow networks and transformations in SESPreparing Navigating Stabilizing
  • 32. Socio-political change as window of opportunity - thecase of Chilean marine coastal resources Gelcich et al. 2010
  • 33. Agency  -­‐  Leadership  and  Institutional  Entrepreneurs  
  • 34. Institutional  entrepreneurs,  global  networks,  and  the  emergence  of  international  institutions  for  ecosystem  stewardship:  The  Coral  Triangle  Initiative Franciska  Rosen  and  Per  Olsson  (manuscript) Photo:
  • 35. Westley,  Olsson  et  al.  2011
  • 36. Future challenges and research
  • 37. Transformers
  • 38. Transformers  -­‐  change  makers  and  leaders
  • 39. Ecosystem  stewardship  
  • 40. Ecosystem Stewardship: Sustainability Strategies for a Rapidly Changing PlanetIntegrates three broadly overlapping sustainability approaches:• reducing vulnerability to expected changes• fostering resilience to sustain desirable conditions in the face of perturbations and uncertainty• transforming from undesirable trajectories when opportunities emerge Chapin et al. 2010
  • 41. Governance transformations and the emergence of ecosystem stewardship Bal$c  Sea B.C. Calif. NWHI Hawaii Mexico Kenya Salomon  Isl. Coral  Triangle Great  Barrier  Reef Chile Southern  Ocean Map:  www.seaaroundus.orgOlsson,  Österblom,  Ban,  Basurto,  Crona,  Evans,  Gelcich,  KiKnger,  Nyström,  Rosen,  Troell,  Valman,  Folke  (manuscript)
  • 42. Emergence of planetarystewardship
  • 43. Crisis  and  opportunity  for  transformations
  • 44. Crisis and opportunity for transformations
  • 45. Social-ecological innovations New technology, strategies, concepts, ideas and organizations that enhance the capacity of ecosystems to generate (bundles of) services • have the potential to build resilience in SES, increase human well-being, and reduce vulnerability to present and future challenges • can enhance the fit between ecosystems and governance systems and help can help break self-reinforcing feedbacks, unlock social- ecological systems’ lock-ins, escape traps and move to new trajectories of sustainability Olsson  and  Galaz  2012
  • 46. Feedback  mapping
  • 47. Transformations in a water management regime inthe Tiscza River, Hungary Sendzimir  et  al  2007
  • 48. Transformations in a water management regime inthe Tiscza River, Hungary Sendzimir  et  al  2007
  • 49. Transformations in a water management regime inthe Tiscza River, Hungary Sendzimir  et  al  2007
  • 50. CURRENT  DYNAMICS  IN  MAKANYAAt a system level, current social-ecological feedbacks reduce the agro-ecological productivity