Global adaptive governance slides

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  • 1. Adaptive Governance Global Networks and Global Challenges Victor Galaz Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm University
  • 2. non-regimes
  • 3. Global Networks (very large-scale) Polycentric Order International Institutions
  • 4. The Anthopocene Planetary Boundaries “The Great Acceleration Three forces that Political shifts towards networked reshaping the forms of governance are PlanetCommunication Mass-Self Information Revolution
  • 5. What are the long term institutional and organizational implications of information technology in the Anthropocene? Decreasing costs for information Mass Self-Communication
  • 6. Bubonic Plage, Surat (India)1994 In 1994 the spread of bubonic plague in the city of Surat deaths of 57 people, significant economic losses, and social and political effects. Over 300,000 people deserted the city (in two days!)
  • 7. Late warnings, information overload and collapse
  • 8. Development of web crawler GPHIN at Health Canada (1995) ProMED - moderated e-mail list hosted by the International Society for Infectious Diseases (1994).
  • 9. “atypical pneumonia”, “unknown respiratory disease”
  • 10. PNEUMONIA - CHINA (GUANGDONG): RFI ********************************** Date: 10 Feb 2003 From: Stephen O. Cunnion, MD, PhD, MPH <cunnion@erols.com> This morning I received this e-mail and then searched your archives and found nothing that pertained to it. Does anyone know anything about this problem? "Have you heard of an epidemic in Guangzhou? An acquaintance of mine from a teacher's chat room lives there and reports that the hospitals there have been closed and people are dying." -Stephen O. Cunnion, MD, PhD, MPH International Consultants in Health, Inc Member ASTM&H, ISTM <cunnion@erols.com>
  • 11. “All of the sudden, we had a very powerful system that brought in much more information from more countries, and we where able to go to countries confidentially and validate what was going on, and if they needed help, we provided help. And we provided help by bringing together many different institutions from around the world that started to work with us.” David Heymann, WHO
  • 12. Breaking down of the information pyramid
  • 13. Two new phenomena Collective Intelligence Supernetworks
  • 14. Supernetworks “Networks of Networks” - interconnected at multiple levels; information technology plays a key role; complex system Global supply chain networks, financial networks, knowledge networks and power grids (Nagurney et al 2006).
  • 15. There is a bigger "networks of networks" […]. In GOARN you have CDC, MSF and Red Cross. Which you also have in the different coordination groups for meningitis vaccine and yellow fever vaccine. Or in global polio eradication. These are enormous, but some are very small and, you would bring in the global influenza with laboratories and national influenza centers. But that is the “network of networks” which has no substance, no defined substance. It's there, the function, but in a highly chaotic, very undefined way. Patrick Drury, GOARN/WHO.
  • 16. European Centre for Disease Control, EpiNorth US-CDC Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) over 120 actors and others! Rotavirus Asian Surveillance Network Southern Cone EID Surveillance Network
  • 17. International Institutions international agreements, conventions, rules governing the activities of the members of international society (Young). Global Networks globally spanning information sharing and collaboration patterns between organizations, including governmental and/or non-governmental actors (Galaz 2014). Polycentric order self-organizing relationship between many centers of decision-making that are formally independent of each other (Galaz 2014)
  • 18. Galaz et al 2012 in Ecological Economics
  • 19. Steering?
  • 20. David wanted to take the GPHIN business and what WHO was doing, and develop a "network of networks". These would be highly unformalized, highly unstructured, as chaotic as possible, because if we allowed it to coagulate or set down at any part of the WHO, the apparatus of the organization, […] would start to drag it down […]. All of these rules would just slow down what was trying to be done. Patrick Drury, GOARN/WHO
  • 21. We have the international level, the WHO and the FAO. And at the national level we try to bring together agriculture and human health ministries. […] group involves academics, and a few key people in the agencies, such as Stephan from the FAO, Pierre […] from the WHO, OIE […]. You have focal points in the agencies, and you have focal points in NASA, and from 4 or 5 different universities. That network is a little bit loosely defined, but flexible and effective, you know. When there is the need, everybody jumps in to action. I think the way it works is highly commendable perhaps, because it’s not fringed or wrapped up in an organizational structure. People just make it work because they know each other. And it’s not a larger group to get lost in, the flexibility is there. I believe this is key to the success. Jan Slingerbergh EMPRES/FAO
  • 22. Wouldn’t it be great if we actually could map these networks? Hyperlink analysis of major players in EID early warning and response NOTE: Illustration!
  • 23. ECDC WHO Red Cross US Gov Cluster FAO UN Agencies Cluster
  • 24. ECDC International Red Cross
  • 25. What makes them work?
  • 26. Q: What if you are facing some uncertainty of the disease? How do you coordinate your networks? A: Each time we have a suspecting case of fever, or something very wrong, the first thing we do, is that we contact WHO. Immediately. […]. So there is immediate collaboration, so we call them and "send you the sample with the first plane”, or the first car or whatever. So, “please go on with your laboratory and tell us what's going on". That is systematic. Q: So that is not formalized? No, no, but it's not personal. WHO knows that we will always call them if we are suspecting things or something is very bizarre. Dan Sermand, MSF
  • 27. Formal: a) within organization rules, budget, responsibility b) between organizations - partnerships, memorandum of understanding, etc Informal: social networks, linked through institutional role + personal history
  • 28. Coordination - Is that it?
  • 29. Collective Intelligence - large, distributed problem solving through information and communication technology. Distributed activity is emergent and collective, rather than orchestrated.
  • 30. Adhoc Virtual Network for “The good thing is that it SARS Etiology isn’t flu. Then well, what is 13 laboratories in 9 countries it?” Daily telephone conferences
  • 31. ProMED 1994-2006 #25 054 postings (total) #373 postings included ”Request for information”
  • 32. How Decreasing Costs of Information Processing and Mass SelfCommunication Builds Resilience Supernetworks! Collective intelligence! They build on the combination btw ICT and social networks and polycentric order.
  • 33. Are these general phenomena? Information processing Multi-network dynamics Legitimacy Harnessing diversity Galaz et al. 2014 (in review)
  • 34. ocean acidification Existing international partnership Strategic selection of 20 interviews with key policy actors at the international level marine biodiversity climate change Theoretical approach: ‘polycentric governance’, network theory Galaz et al. 2011, Ecological Economics
  • 35. Robust international institutions will have a very difficult time to evolve problem not well understood likely to interplay with existing institutions difficult to “fit” extreme actor heterogeneity (Young 2008, “institutional diagnostics” )
  • 36. Robust international institutions will have a very difficult time to evolve Networks and polycentric coordination?
  • 37. Very complex institutional setting
  • 38. INCOP UNEP World Bank IUCN UNESCO WorldFish Centre Global Forum on Oceans Coasts and Islands ICES FAO UN Ocean ICRI GPA-Marine PacFa Galaz et al. 2011, Ecological Economics
  • 39. World Bank OECD UNDP FAO Evolving network, with patterns of information sharing, coordination, and conflict resolution. Affected by changes in complex institutional setting (climate, biodiversity, marine regimes)
  • 40. Main conclusions Evolving coordination patterns, emphasis on information sharing + lobbying -> tension Increasing degree of formalization Highly centralized to 3 core international organizations Negative institutional interactions Galaz et al. 2011, Ecological Economics
  • 41. Global networks Enforcement Adaptability Incentives International institutions Interactions Earth system “tipping points” Galaz et al. 2012 (in review)
  • 42. THANK YOU victor.galaz@stockholmresilience.su.se twitter.com/vgalaz