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Hindalco industries

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  • 1. Hindalco Industries - An Integrated ntegrated Report 08/06/2010 www.capitalheight.com
  • 2. info@capitalheight.com Phone- (0731)4295950 HINDALCO INDUSTRIES SCRIP ID – HINDALCO 52 WEEKS HIGH – 188.20 BSE CODE – 500440 52 WEEKS LOW – 68.40 INDUSTRY – ALUMINIUM BOOK VALUE – 147.50 FACE VALUE – 1.0 EPS – 10.82 An industry leader in aluminum and copper, Hindalco Industries Limited, the metals Flagship Company of the Aditya Birla Group is one of the world's largest aluminum rolling companies and one of the biggest producers of primary aluminum in Asia. At present Hindalco is metals powerhouse with high-end rolling capabilities and a global footprint in 12 countries. Its consolidated turnover of USD 15 billion (Rs. 600,128 million) places it in the Fortune 500 league. Recently Hindalco declared its FY10 results. It posted 8 fold net profit, up 709% due to improved earnings from Novelis and It proposed a dividend of 135% at Rs. 1.35 per share. Hindalco’s subsidiary Novels produces an estimated 19 percent of the world's flat-rolled aluminum products and is the number one producer in Europe, South America and Asia, and the second-largest in North America. Aditya Birla Minerals is located in Western Australia and Queensland, respectively. ABML, an S&P ASX 300 Index company, is the largest pure copper company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange. And Hindalco Almex manufactures high-strength aluminium alloys for applications in the aerospace, sporting goods and surface transport industries. www.capitalheight.com
  • 3. info@capitalheight.com Phone- (0731)4295950 CapitalHeight view - Hindalco Industries strength is being the largest aluminum producer in India and possesses biggest copper smelting capacity plant in Asia. Hindalco is tripling its production in aluminum with the help of various expansion plans progressively going on specifically Hirakud’s and Brownfield and based near Bauxite mines ensures low cost of production. Its Aluminum Segment has reported improvement in margins due to higher LME prices & rise in product premiums while its expansion capacity will kick start in FY12 boosting its volumes in FY13. Novelis too has shown turnaround of its business on the basis of end of price ceiling contracts and reprising of margins in North America. Novelis, particularly, improved the revenue margin significantly for Hindalco. Its EBITDA run-rate of $200mn is expected to continue and company will increase its North American shipments of aluminum for cans by 3% increasing its Aluminum segment wise revenue. With that, Hindalco sits on a heavy cash flow in near future with many expansion plans going on its various business front at the same time. Its Aluminum segment reported 11% fall in revenue and consolidated sales too dropped by 8%. Undecided copper TcRc due to rigid supply of concentrate is continuing to depress its copper margins and company is in much need to seek copper mines and low cost of concentrate. On the expansion side, its Utkal aluminum, Mahan Aluminum and Aditya Aluminum plans are pushed back by 2 months and are expected to be completed by Q2-Q3FY12. Hirakud plant is further proposed to be expanded from 213ktpa to 360 ktpa which will require huge financing, burdening the liability side. Its Utkal Aluminum project cost is increased by Rs. 400mn, Mahan and Aditya aluminum cost is increased by Rs 10bn to Rs. 92bn as well. This signals a worrying cash outflow company is sitting on and it will increase the consolidated debt as well in the near future. This will be only eased in FY12 and there is no particular good news in earnings of the company for the time being. We recommend SELL on Hindalco. www.capitalheight.com
  • 4. info@capitalheight.com Phone- (0731)4295950 Strength & Opportunities The standalone sales increased by 7% Rs. 19,536 cr for FY 10. The company has sustained a better cost management in FY10. In this FY10, Hindalco operated very much efficiently producing the highest metal ever complemented by its substantial cost savings. Hindalco has scaled up its Hirakud smelter and power expansion project to 360 KTPA from the earlier planned 213 KTPA. The captive power plant for the project too will be raised to 967.5 mw as against the proposed 467.5 mtpa. The copper business contributed Rs 12,575 cr in net sales, a rise of 13%. The EBIT for the copper business soared three times to Rs 1,003 cr. Aditya Birla Minerals, the Australian mining subsidiary of Hindalco, reported a net profit of Rs 246 cr against a loss Rs 304 cr last year. Hirakud’s Brownfield expansion is underway from 155 ktpa to 213 ktpa by 2012. Hindalco is the largest aluminum producer in india with a market share of 45% and is the only player that converts 67% of metal production into value added products like aluminum foils & packaging material. Hindalco has a copper smelting capacity of 500 kpta that is largest in Asia. The company has a future plan of tripling its aluminum production in next three years through Brownfield and Greenfield expansions in india. www.capitalheight.com
  • 5. info@capitalheight.com Phone- (0731)4295950 Weakness & Threats Copper business lost Rs. 750 cr as well on lower by-product credit. Post repayment of bridge loan and low treasury corpus for acquisition of Novelis and expansion plans led other income of the company too declined by Rs. 377 cr to Rs. 260 cr. Hirakud’s Brownfield expansion from 155kpta to 213 kpta is pushed back by 8 months i.e. inQ4FY12. The company’s consolidated sales fell by 8% to Rs. 60, 722 cr due to weak global demand. Utkal alumina 1.5 mtpa aluminum refinery’s commissioning has been pushed back to Q2 FY12 presents a major challenge in its domestic business front. Commitment on Rs. 56b capex has been increased by 15pp to 81% taking its project cost marginally higher to Rs. 400 mn. a worrying cash outflow for Hindalco industries. Aluminum business, one of its core business revenue fell by 11% to Rs. 48,901 cr due to lower LME and less demand in world markets and eroded its aluminum business profit by around Rs. 750 cr. In short term Hirakud’s expansion is seen in FY11 while most of its project are completing in FY 12 & FY 14. Till then the company has a huge cash outflow to maintain. www.capitalheight.com
  • 6. info@capitalheight.com Phone- (0731)4295950 Company's dividend payouts over the last 5 years Year Month Dividend (%) 2010 Jun 135 2009 Jun 135 2008 Jun 185 2007 Mar 170 2006 Jul 220 Key Financial Ratios (On Quarterly Standalone Basis) Year End 4QFY09 4QFY10 %YoY FY09 FY10 %YoY 31 Mar Sales(Rsm) 37718.00 54434.00 44.30 181731.00 197723.00 8.80 EBITDA(Rsm) 3144.00 8644.00 174.90 29894.00 27099.00 -9.30 EBITDA +760 8.30 15.90 16.40 13.70 -270 BPS (Margin %) BPS Interest (Rsm) 821.00 705.00 -14.10 3369.00 2780.00 -17.50 Depreciation 1681.00 1684.00 0.20 6452.00 6672.00 3.40 (Rsm) Other 948.00 777.00 -18.10 6834.00 2599.00 -62.00 Income(Rsm) PBT(Rsm) 1590.00 7031.00 342.20 26907.00 20246.00 -24.80 Tax(Rsm) 407.00 1286.00 216.20 6108.00 4130.00 -32.40 Tax(%) 25.60 18.30 -730BPS 22.70 20.40 -230BPS PAT(Rsm) 1183.00 5744.00 385.50 20798.00 16116.00 -22.50 www.capitalheight.com
  • 7. info@capitalheight.com Phone- (0731)4295950 Quarterly Results Particulars Mar 2010 Dec 2009 Sep 2009 Jun 2009 Gross Sales 5358.46 5286.10 4892.56 3870.90 Other Operating Income 45.94 29.18 24.55 28.59 Other Income 77.66 49.58 57.29 75.32 Total Income 5482.06 5364.86 4974.40 3974.81 Total Expenditure 4569.03 4567.69 4307.95 3141.69 PBIDT 913.03 797.17 666.45 833.12 Interest 70.54 72.94 66.29 68.23 PBDT 842.49 724.23 600.16 764.89 Depreciation 168.41 167.61 165.86 165.33 Tax 10.16 129.52 90.25 119.00 Deferred Tax 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Reported Profit After Tax 663.92 427.10 344.05 480.56 Extra-ordinary Items 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Adjusted Profit After Extra- 663.92 427.10 344.05 480.56 ordinary item EPS (Unit Curr.) 3.47 2.41 2.02 2.83 EPS (Adj) (Unit Curr.) 3.47 2.41 2.02 2.83 Calculated EPS (Unit Curr.) 3.47 2.23 2.02 2.83 Calculated EPS (Adj) (Unit Curr.) 3.47 2.23 2.02 2.83 Calculated EPS (Ann.) (Unit 13.88 8.93 8.09 11.30 Curr.) Calculated EPS (Adj) (Ann.) 13.88 8.93 8.09 11.30 (UCurr.) Book Value (Unit Curr.) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Dividend (%) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 www.capitalheight.com
  • 8. info@capitalheight.com Phone- (0731)4295950 Equity 191.37 191.36 170.05 170.05 Reserve & Surplus 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Face Value 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Public Shareholding (No 0.00 1134544349 920858710 917580678 Of.Shares) Public Shareholding (% in Equity) 0.00 59.29 54.16 53.97 Pledged/Encumbered - No. of 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Shares Pledged/Encumbered - % in 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total Promoters Holding Pledged/Encumbered - % in 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total Equity Non Encumbered - No. of Shares 0.00 613797188 613797188 613797188 Non Encumbered - % in Total 0.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 Promoters Holding Non Encumbered - % in Total 0.00 32.08 36.10 36.10 Equity PBIDTM(%) 17.04 15.08 13.62 21.52 PBDTM(%) 15.72 13.70 12.27 19.76 PATM(%) 12.39 8.08 7.03 12.41 www.capitalheight.com
  • 9. info@capitalheight.com Phone- (0731)4295950 Peer Group Comparison Partulcars 10-Mar 10-Mar 10-Mar 9-Mar Parekh Ess Dee Hindalco Nalco Aluminium Aluminium Sales 19,536.28 5,158.00 637.46 401.48 PAT 1,915.63 832.60 46.29 66.46 Equity 191.37 644.31 12.94 27.83 Key Financial Ratios OPM 16.43 29.37 17.28 26.63 % NPM 9.81 16.14 7.26 16.55 % RONW 1,001.01 129.22 14.85 16.54 EPS 10.82 12.92 35.77 23.88 CEPS 13.50 17.87 55.24 25.76 PE -- -- -- 21.63 PB -- -- 0.57 1.02 BV -- -- 240.95 144.44 Ownership As on March 2010 Promoter & 61,37,97,188 56,14,99,635 43,87,400 1,65,31,881 Promoter Grp Indian 61,37,97,188 56,14,99,635 43,87,400 1,65,31,881 Foreign -- -- -- -- Public 1,13,45,22,125 8,28,09,993 85,52,600 1,12,92,884 Institution 85,33,35,847 6,12,44,391 18,54,194 64,85,115 FII 55,37,68,633 2,63,92,215 18,54,194 34,08,159 DII 29,95,67,214 3,48,52,176 -- 30,76,956 Non Institution 28,11,86,278 2,15,65,602 66,98,406 48,07,769 Bodies Corporate 7,87,64,335 1,64,51,986 9,89,097 11,53,752 www.capitalheight.com
  • 10. info@capitalheight.com Phone- (0731)4295950 Technical View Fibonacci Retracement % (Retracement) 75.00 61.80 50.00 48.00 38.20 25.00 Level 153.94 133.31 114.88 111.75 96.44 75.81 Moving Average Levels Level Daily Weekly 20 day’s 151.42 161.46 50 day’s 167.18 140.22 100 day’s 162.92 106.88 200 day’s 147.73 130.87 Monthly Pivot Script R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4 HINDALCO 287 241 194 163 147 116 100 54 7 Key Levels Resistance – 140.50, 149.00, 156.00 Support – 125.50, 115.00, 105.75 www.capitalheight.com
  • 11. info@capitalheight.com Phone- (0731)4295950 Weekly Chart Daily Chart www.capitalheight.com
  • 12. info@capitalheight.com Phone- (0731)4295950 Disclaimer The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Capitalheight recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Capitalheight shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE. The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to Capitalheight might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer. All Rights Reserved. Investment in Commodity and equity market has its own risks. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. we are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above. Capitalheight does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken. www.capitalheight.com