Lucky for some

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Viability's Guy Wilkinson writes a monthly column for Hotelier Middle East Magazine. This article originally appeared in September 2011.
For more information about Viability, please visit http://www.linkedin.com/company/2347942 or http://www.viability.ae/

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Lucky for some

  1. 1. 20RESEARCH EXCLUSIVE Lucky for some Viability director Guy Wilkinson will present his exclusive GCC hotel industry pipeline research at the Hotelier Middle East Great GM Debate this month. Here’s a sneak peek… drilled down to verify the status of each project confirmed to us last year. We found that no less than 58 proj- ects had been ‘put on hold’ or can- celled altogether since the 2010 rank- ings, accounting for 15,757 potential rooms. Since the recession started in earnest, back in 2009, we calculate that around 50,000 rooms in total have fallen into this category. Due mainly to continuing financial uncertainties in various parts of the GCC, many hotel projects have also COLUMNIST been delayed. To be precise, 98 proj- ects had been delayed by between hey say 13 is an unlucky num- one and five years compared to their T ber and in this 13th year of my GCC future hotel pipeline survey, the numbers are down for the second consecutive year. Over the last five years, the total Hilton will be opening six hotels with more than 4000 rooms at Jabal Omar in Makkah, Saudi Arabia. OUR INVESTIGATIONS REVEALED THAT 167 original programmes declared to us in 2010, and this is without taking into account that in many cases they were already behind schedule by at least a year last year. However, our inves- pipeline of confirmed future hotels tigations revealed that 167 projects increased from 199 in 2007 to a peak PROJECTS WERE STILL BANG ON SCHEDULE, were still bang on schedule, which of 325 in 2009, then fell to 283 last WHICH REPRESENTS 61% OF THE TOTAL, AS represents 61% of the total, as com- year and 274 this year. In terms of COMPARED TO JUST 50% IN 2010 pared to just 50% in 2010. There were room count, the 2011 total amounts even nine projects that were ahead of to 77,020 hotel rooms (excluding ser- schedule, perhaps reflecting an exces- viced apartments and villas) com- sive level of pessimism about market pared to 92,026 in record year 2009. prospects on the part of their develop- My team of expert researchers at ers in previous years. TOP 30 RANKING BY PROPERTIES Viability Management Consultants Indeed, the picture in 2011 is far 33 35 30 PROJECT STATUS CHART 2011 26 24 25 Delayed 4 years, 2,1% Delayed 5 years, 1,0% 20 Delayed 3 years, 13,5% Advanced 1 year, 9,3% 20 18 17 17 15 15 Delayed 2 years, 32,12% 10 9 9 10 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 0 Delayed 1 year, Marriott IHG Hilton Rotana Accor Starwood Millennium Best Western Movenpick Rezidor Coral Fairmont Raffles Golden Tulip Kempinski Jumeirah Citymax Four Seasons Hyatt Wyndham Anantara City Seasons MENA Premier Inn QNH Ramee Ayla Banyan Tree Formosa Mandarin Oriental MGM Others 50,18% On time, 167,61% September 2011 • Hotelier Middle East www.hoteliermiddleeast.com

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