Talk at ALM Chicago 2013.

1. Systems Thinking: A Foxy Approach
Venkatesh Rao, ribbonfarm.com

2. Inconsistent
Unreliable
Two negative archetypes Duplicitous
Selfish
Irresponsible
Scheming
Bullshitter
Hidebound
Bureaucratic
Holier-than-thou
Naïve Which do you dislike more?
Boring
Risk-averse
Predictable
2

3. Sees Hedgehogs as Sees Foxes as
Consistent Inconsistent
Conscientious Unreliable
Fair Duplicitous
Selfless Selfish
Hedgehogs
Responsible Irresponsible
Trustworthy Scheming
Realistic Bullshitter
Hidebound Open-minded
Bureaucratic Resourceful
Holier-than-thou Adaptable
Foxes Naïve Worldly
Boring Interesting
Risk-averse Adventurous
Predictable Imaginative
3

4. Story: The crazy personal trainer

5. “To be great at many things, not just
one. My clients will be well rounded
and competent in all areas of fitness.
They will be able to take on any
physical challenges and succeed. I
help people change their lifestyles for
a healthier tomorrow.”
Arthur Hsu

6. “The fox knows many things, the hedgehog knows one big thing.”
-- Archilocus
The philosophy primer: http://bit.ly/Ysr7ja
6

7. Definition:
Systems thinking is the consistent ability to get unstuck when
stuck…

8. …in the presence of VUCA
VUCA
Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity

9. Two complementary modes of getting unstuck
Directional systems thinking Operational systems thinking
Finding the right question Finding the right answer
Attributions:
Fox: Rob Lee
Hedgehog: Lars Karlsson
9

10. Anticipation Execution
Advantage FOX Advantage HEDGEHOG

11. Foxes appear to have
internalized cross-functional
teams inside their heads

12. …fox work
“Big picture” The right
porn questions
When hedgehogs do.. When foxes do…
The right Clumsy
answers hacks
…hedgehog work

13. Hedgehog Systems Thinking Done Right
GTD

14. Hedgehog Systems Thinking Done Wrong

15. Foxy Systems Thinking Done Wrong
Employers didn't start offering health benefits roughly 60 years ago
because they were experts in medical decisions. It was a way of
circumventing the World War II wage and price controls. Barred from
offering higher salaries to attract workers, employers offered health
insurance instead. Aided by an IRS ruling that said workers who
received health benefits did not have to pay income taxes on them,
and by the fact that employers could write off the cost of the health
benefits as a business related expense, this accidental arrangement
became the primary way most Americans access health care.
-- WSJ, December 10, 2008
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122887085038593345.html

16. Foxy Systems Thinking Done Right

17. Can you have your cake and eat it too? Maybe…
OODA: A fox dressed like a hedgehog (a story for another day…)

18. …fox work
Example:
Globalization
When hedgehogs do… When foxes do…
…hedgehog work

19. Where foxes get
terminally stuck, Hedgehogs are most
hedgehogs get started comfortable
developing momentum
DEVOPS = FOXHOG?
Foxes are most
comfortable finding
direction Where hedgehogs
get terminally stuck,
foxes get started

20. The fatal hedgehog error: understanding how a system works is
necessary for understanding how to work the system
The fatal fox error: an elegant insight into the workings of a
system is sufficient for building an elegant system that works

21. Dangerous books often bought and displayed proudly
…but (thankfully) rarely read

22. 2x2 diagrams Motifs Equipment in the Foxy Gym
Arbitrage Naming
Aphorisms Narrative
Archetyping Non Sequiturs
Bloody-mindedness Overloading
Bricolage Parables
Browsing Paradoxes
Caricature Pattern recognition
Collage Randomness
Constraint Triangles Serendipity
Free-lunching Theft
Gonzo longform Triage
Hacks Surprise seeking
Improvisation Viral Venn Diagrams
Maps Yin-Yang diagrams
Metaphor

23. Motif
A tangible symbol that evokes the gestalt of a complex system and
suggests a useful organizing perspective.
Test: if you make a mind-map with the motif at the root, you will
end up with a different diagram than if you start with the abstract
idea.

24. China
Jobs
World Outsourcing
is Flat Globalization
Internet
WTO
Currency
Trading

25. Backhaul
Supply
Problem
Chains Trade
Imbalance
Walmart
Dirty
Nukes
RFID
China

26. Weird
Fraud
Weather More
Controversy
droughts,
Global more rain
Is it Warming
real? Carbon
Emissions
Melting
Conspiracy Ice Caps
Theory

27. Global
Warming
Extinction Will our
children
Melting see polar
Ice caps bears?
Other What about non-
Implications? We share cute species?
this planet

28. Exercise #1A (3 minutes): draw a mind-map starting with…
Application
Lifecycle
Management

29. Exercise #1B (3 minutes): now draw one starting with…
Y2K bug

30. Why this can get you unstuck:
Good motifs naturally allow our minds to pick out the important patterns
rather than the conventional ones.
Drawing a mind-map starting with a new motif is like reseeding a random
number generator in your mind.

31. Aphorism
An aphorism is a succinct statement that captures an essential
insight into the workings of a complex system, without
characterizing it in detail.
Test: Retweetability

32. Gamification is the high-fructose corn syrup of user engagement -- Kathy Sierra

33. Plan to throw one away – Brooks
Never throw one away – Spolsky

34. Two from yours truly
Keep your psychology complex, but your morality simple
Civilization is the process of turning the incomprehensible into the arbitrary

35. Prize!
Exercise #2 (3 minutes): Tweet your own aphorism about application
lifecycle management in 120 characters to @almchicago
(hint: try to start with a few different motifs)

36. Why this can get you unstuck:
Good aphorisms are extremely high-leverage decision simplification
principles that allow you to eliminate entire classes of possibilities at the
systemic level and supply good defaults at the detailed level.

37. Metaphoric Map
A metaphoric map is a visualization that uses the rich phenomena of
geography to represent complex realities in ways that show things in
the right relative proportions and relationships, suggest a set of
coherent meanings and guide high-level prioritization.
Test: How often your map gets cited by others.

38. xkcd

40. Homework (3 hours): Draw a metaphoric map of your industry
Things to use:
• walls, mountains, gorges
• rivers, lakes, oceans, deserts
• forests, swamps
• villages, cities, countries
PRIZE: Free hour of consulting if you agree to post your finished map in public

41. Why this can get you unstuck:
Good maps suggest the right sense of proportion and rearrange priorities.
• Are you ignoring something huge?
• Are you wasting attention on something trivial?
• Are you missing a relationship?
• Are you underestimating the size of a barrier to action?

42. Advanced material: the 2x2 Diagram
A good 2x2 diagram discriminates a complex and messy reality into
four more tractable and equally rich classes by employing two
orthogonal but mutually relevant dichotomies.
Test: How easily you are able to name each quadrant with an
archetype label or motif.

43. Rich
A bad 2x2…why?
Wealth
Lucky Winner
Stupid Intelligence Smart
Loser Unlucky
Poor

44. High
A good 2x2
Perspective
(David Allen)
Master and
Crazymaker
Commander
Control High
Low
Victim Micromanager
Low

45. Centralized and Hierarchical
Another Good 2x2
(Microsoft: Rasmus/Salkowitz)
Organization
Continental Proud
Drift Tower
More More
Regionalized Globalization Globalized
Frontier Freelance
Friction Planet
Networked and Distributed

46. Hedgehog
One for Gene Kim
McCoy Spock
Ops Dev
Completing triads Scotty Kirk
into quadrants a
common
technique
Fox

47. Hedgehog
And one more…
(me!)
Values
Tolstoi Dante
Fox Hedgehog
Strengths
Shakespeare Taleb
(based on famous Isaiah Berlin Fox
essay)

48. You can make up the grid and find the motifs (easier)
or
You can start with motifs and get to the 2x2 (harder)
Example: Slytherin, Hufflepuff, Gryffindor, Ravenclaw

49. Noble
One possible solution
Why wouldn’t the following work? Hufflepuff Gryffindor
1. Good versus evil
2. Works smart/works hard
3. Loyal/disloyal Follower Leader
Ravenclaw Slytherin
Selfish

50. Another one
The four elements of Blitzkrieg*
1. Einheit (“culture”)
2. Fingerspitzengefühl (“instinctive skill”)
3. Auftragstaktik (“tactical contract”)
4. Schwerpunkt (“commander’s intent” or “focal point”)
*See Chet Richards’ Certain to Win for an accessible introduction

51. Vector
One possible solution
(from a very smart consulting client) Commander’s Tactical
Intent Contract
Tangible Intangible
Instinctive
Culture
Skill
Scalar

52. 7 rules for 2x2s
1. No unlabeled quadrants…
2. …but labeled-and-empty is okay
3. Name the prototypical instance, not the class
4. Bonus points if x and y axes are strongly related or identical
5. Drop either the axes labels or the end points labels if you can…
6. …but not both!
7. The middle must be unoccupied (related to Taleb’s “barbell principle”)

53. Prize!
Final exam, Part I: (5 minutes)
Draw a 2x2 relating to application lifecycle management.
(extra credit: take a picture and tweet it to @almchicago)

54. 2
Final exam, Part II: (5 minutes) Prizes!
Organize the following into a 2x2 matrix.
Hacker, Hustler, UX designer, sysadmin
Extra foxy credit: try and come up with two alternative 2x2s

55. Fox tools Hedgehog tools
1. Blank, one-sided print outs 1. Bound, ruled/graph notebooks
(“free lunch”) 2. Post-it notes
2. Index cards 3. Pencils
3. Pens 4. Complex, specialized software
4. Simple, versatile software 5. Takes serious training
5. Intuitive or easy to learn

56. • Question like a fox, answer like a hedgehog
• See like a fox, do like a hedgehog
• Imagine like a fox, execute like a hedgehog
• Create problems like a fox, solve them like a hedgehog
• Startup like a fox, scale like a hedgehog

57. Thank you!
In development: workshop/short course (ETA: Summer 2013)
Blog: http://ribbonfarm.com
Email: vgr@ribbonfarm.com
Twitter: @vgr