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Research on impacts of climate change in norway
Research on impacts of climate change in norway
Research on impacts of climate change in norway
Research on impacts of climate change in norway
Research on impacts of climate change in norway
Research on impacts of climate change in norway
Research on impacts of climate change in norway
Research on impacts of climate change in norway
Research on impacts of climate change in norway
Research on impacts of climate change in norway
Research on impacts of climate change in norway
Research on impacts of climate change in norway
Research on impacts of climate change in norway
Research on impacts of climate change in norway
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Research on impacts of climate change in norway

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  1. Information Exchange Event JRC-NorwayResearch on Impacts of Climate Change in Norway Asbjørn Aaheim CICERO CIENS, June 18, 2010
  2. Sketch of climate scenarios for Norway Seasonal variations: Highest dT in winter Highest dP in autumn Extremes: Higher frequency of heavy rain periodsChange in mean Change in annual temperature precipitation
  3. Anticipated impacts of climate change in Norway L a n d S b k r o u g k L e n g r e v e k s t s e s o n Increased average temperature in Norway g ø k e r p r o d u k t i v i t e t M e r n e d b ø r r e d u s e r e r p r o d u k t i v i t e t +1 OC +2 OC +3 OC +4 OC + 5 OC Extended growth season - higher productivity Higher frequency of droughts (south- east) Agriculture More rain lowers productivity Forests Tree line extends and more biomass New species Bark beetles attack Less pine and more birch Fish and oceans New species in Nordic areas Cod stock move north Sea-level rise Urban areas floodedEnergy and residents Damage from increased humidity Reduced energy demand for heating Increased energy demand cooling Hydro power potential increases Water supply Pressures on sewage sytsems Increased energy demand cooling Skiing season shortens Winter holiday resorts at risk Tourism Drier and warmer summers Biodiversity changes Floods and high tides Natural disasters Increased frequency of slides and avalanches Health More ticks Allergic responses Reduced water quality Transport Easier traffic and transport - less snow cleaning Extended basis for commercial ocean transport Polar areas Melting of glaciers and polar ice Extinction of snow and ice dependent species Source: Report to NOU Klimatilpassing 3
  4. Quantifications of total impacts in Norway Sector Evaluation QuantifiedAgriculture Well covered - outdated totals Yes Fairly good. Norway part of several Europe/NordicForestry No studies, but no separate studies Many studies, but vast uncertainties. UnifiedFisheries No perception of direction, but no specificationsSea-level rise Estimates of level available, costs unknown No Energy demand, hydro-power supply and impact ofEnergy and humidity is coverd, but long-term effects and Yesbuildings adaptation in power production is not addressed Impacts known, but local focus. No assessments ofWater supply No total impacts Relationship between climate and tourism basicallyTourism No unknown, but potentially significant. Uncertain. Cost estimates of events available, but thoroughNatural hazards No assessment of the total expected cost unavailableHealth Possible impacts indicated, no assessments of totals No A range of potential impacts indicated, but fewTransport assessments. Estimated impacts of slides indicate No small totals. 4
  5. Impacts functions - examplesTourismAgriculture 5
  6. Estimate of direct economic impacts in at +3°C 6
  7. Economic impacts to Norway at +3°C with autonomous adaptation 7
  8. The uncertainties of impacts estimates: The costs of slides estimated with reference to assessments of slide frequenciesTake for given: Future climate Climate change impact on extreme weather events Relationship between weather events and slides The force of a slide No human losses or injuries
  9. Mapping of values: HjelledalenThe uncertainty about the actual value is substantial
  10. Risk of material loss in case of a slideHow much is destroyed? …we can make assumptions, but do not know much
  11. Added economic risks in case of a slide …based on guesstimates
  12. Probability density functions for economic costs of slides in Hjelledalen (Material loss only)
  13. Expected annual loss by slide type and case area kr 5 000  000  kr 4 500  000  kr 4 000  000  kr 3 500  000  kr 3 000  000  kr 2 500  000  kr 2 000  000  kr 1 500  000  kr 1 000  000  kr 500  000  kr ‐ Akershus Oppland Sogn og Fjordane Troms Shallow landslide kr 421  346  kr ‐ kr ‐ kr ‐ Rock fall kr ‐ kr 271  274  kr 395  807  kr 42 924  Quick‐clay slide kr 501  462  kr ‐ kr ‐ kr ‐ Flood slide kr ‐ kr ‐ kr ‐ kr 535  061  Debris flow kr ‐ kr 1 491 546  kr 144  233  kr 136  765  Avalanche kr ‐ kr ‐ kr 1 490 867  kr 3 671 565  13
  14. Adaptation to climate change…is to make appropriate decisions underuncertainty – and acknowledge the risks Thanks! 14

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