• Like

Loading…

Flash Player 9 (or above) is needed to view presentations.
We have detected that you do not have it on your computer. To install it, go here.

Vinod Khosla: “Smart Grid” or “Smart Hype” — An Analytical Perspective From a ‘Grid’ Neophyte

  • 2,449 views
Uploaded on

 

  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
2,449
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0

Actions

Shares
Downloads
82
Comments
0
Likes
1

Embeds 0

No embeds

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide
  • Example (corresponds to letters in chart):Point A shows 27,000 megawatts of demand at a given point in timeIn order to reach a cumulative supply of 27,000 megawatts, all of the available wind, hydro, nuclear and coal plants will be runningAdditionally, all of the gas plants to the left of plant B and including plant B will run. This makes plant B the marginal plant.Plant B’s $52 per megawatt bid at point C becomes the market price (the market clearing price) for that hour and all plants get that same priceLine D represents the generating margin for coal plant E. The margin is the spread between the clearing prie and plant E’s variable cost.Line F is the generating margin for nuclear plant G.
  • McKinsey report on Smartgrid summer 2010“Instead of installing meters capable of receiving high-speed broadband Internet signals, Southern California Edison, San Diego Gas & Electric and Pacific Gas & Electric have opted for cheaper, lower-speed connections.Yet the utilities are also laying the groundwork for advanced "smart grid" networks that will use broadband technology for managing power supplies and distribution.The upshot: smart grids and smart meters that, in essence, won't speak the same language.”
  • http://www.mydesert.com/article/20101020/NEWS01/10200309/Southern-California-Edison-s-new-meters-raise-concerns
  • http://www.latimes.com/business/custom/yourmoney/la-fi-lazarus20apr20,0,7194397.column
  • Survey of regulators in 17 statesWrong FRAMING… Consumers don’t want a smart grid that just costs more money… what do they actually want, if anything?
  • http://realitypod.com/2010/08/net-zero-energy-home/
  • Most people trust their utility more than their cellular carrier, FYI.
  • Prof. Mani Chandy at Caltech

Transcript

  • 1. ”smart grid” or “smart hype”… an analytical perspective from a ‘grid’ neophyte
    Vinod Khosla
    vk@khoslaventures.com
    November 2010
  • 2. Last year’s summary…
    I’m not skeptical about investing in the grid
    Storage better than Demand response
    Let’s not get caught up in the hype of the smart grid
    one successful smart grid company doesn't create a wave
    networked grid = new applications
    Open = innovation
    hype cannot defy economic gravity
    Consumer behavior hard to change
    Opportunity exists, hype exists
    2
  • 3. …”certain” dispatchable supply
    3
    Source: Morgan Stanley
  • 4. Solar & Uncertain
    4
  • 5. Wind & Uncertain
    5
  • 6. Uncertainty Time Scales
    Faults
    Demand/
    Response
    Milliseconds
    Seconds
    Minutes
    Tens of minutes
    Hours
    Days
    Years
    Decades
    PV
    Backup
    Gen
    Wind
    Markets
    EV uptake
    C credits
    6
    Source: Resnick Institute
  • 7. Drivers of Uncertainty
    Increased renewables deployment, EVs
    Increased reliance on innovation (e.g., Storage, renewables, software, etc)
    Huge capital at risk & fast changing technology
    Increased security requirements
    Consumer response
    7
  • 8. Increasing Certainty…
    Aggregating supply: wind, solar, coal, gas, nuclear…
    Aggregating over geography
    Aggregating over time
    Information technology
    Dynamic response of subsystems
    Design for non-catastrophic failure
    8
  • 9. Central problem of uncertainty demands grid infrastructure redo … not minor issues like meter reading …though AMI has a role… Silver Spring with $800m of DOE funding does not make for sustainable “wave” even if it means good equity returns
    9
  • 10. …REAL smart grid wisdom?
    smart meters, HAN and thermostats
    Closed protocols
    Real-time pricing
    most value is automating meter reading
    Focus on demand response
    Increases energy security
    Intelligentconsumer electronics
    More money in the GRID than in the HOME
    OPEN protocols will win (mesh?)
    Diverse, bandwidth needs 100X larger?
    Grid = smart power electronics (PE)
    hard to predict needs (flexibility)
    Architecture determines security
    distribution automation, 2-way flow, redundancy
    10
  • 11. …where’s the BEEF?… SECURITY & CYBER WARS… De-coupling “rigid grid”: self healing & adaptive… Local “power quality”: locally self adjusting… Evolvable architecture, open, predictive… Power Electronics (control, quality, locality…)… (modularity/flexibility & Management)
    11
  • 12. Opportunity: $130B in US alone?
    Storage and DG can play these roles…
    Storage and DG can play these roles…
    5-15% from consumer behavioral change or
    …efficiency could shrink by 50%
    This is what many utility commissions focus on
    May grow…
    12
    Source: McKinsey
  • 13. Issues, drivers & concerns
    13
  • 14. … useful (concerning) but hyped?
    …. smart meters (automation, not smart device)
    …. demand response (5-15% factor?)
    …. consumer engagement
    …. time of day pricing
    …. proprietary networks
    …. fashion of the day & “deterministic need” assumption
    14
  • 15. … modularity and “design for the future”
    “The problem here is there has been a rush to install these fancy new hi-tech meters and they're not energy-saving devices; they are simply meters. They're not going to be worth the customer investment.”
    15
  • 16. Westinghouse’s Law vs. Moore’s Law
    When a 70 year lifecycle collides with 18 months..
    “Instead of installing meters capable of receiving high-speed broadband Internet signals, Southern California Edison, San Diego Gas & Electric and Pacific Gas & Electric have opted for cheaper, lower-speed connections.
    Yet the utilities are also laying the groundwork for advanced "smart grid" networks that will use broadband technology for managing power supplies and distribution.The upshot: smart grids and smart meters that, in essence, won't speak the same language.”
    16
  • 17. Eco:nomics vs. Greco:nomics
    ( or the principle of economic gravity)
    Avoid the hype (and the environmentalist’s solutions)
    Economic gravity WILL win: with consumers, regulators and Governments
    17
  • 18. Consumers resistant to costs
    …who decides, who pays?
    18
  • 19. Smart grid subsidies?
    Misdirected…
    $19M for networked home appliances
    Needed…
    $19M for power distribution & management
    19
  • 20. Smart hype ….even your remote is smart grid
    20
  • 21. Zero Net-Energy vs. Efficiency
    VS.
    Environmentalists dream
    “pay for itself 1st year” Efficiency
    Zero energy is an irrelevant focus
    21
  • 22. efficiency vs. “smarts”
    ..what if everything used 80% less electricity?
    Standby Power
    22
  • 23. What if we had fundamental new power electronics devices?
    …early transistor
    …Intel I7 (transistors 774million)
    23
  • 24. What if we had the perfect power electronics sub-system?
    Reactance worries=expensive
    1 MW wind “converter”: huge=expensive
    1900’s transformers
    24
  • 25. What if a Russian Hackathon brought down electricity to 20 million US homes?
    ….is a hackers “how many homes” competition improbable?
    25
  • 26. Managability: focus on IT to Increase Certainty?
    Silos
    ESB
    Adapter-based
    Common
    …but managing (Smart) Grid means manageable grid elements
    System Integration (IBM) Approach
    DoD “style”
    Approach
    Standards –based
    Internet-style
    Current-state
    26
    Source: Jeff Gooding, Jeremy McDonald, SCE
  • 27. What if we asked …
    Efficiency vs. DR
    Efficiency vs. conservation/insulation
    Storage vs. DR
    Storage vs. DG
    Transmission vs. storage
    Load regulations vs active devices
    Command & control vs resilient networks
    A lot of the “wisdom” may be made obsolete by technology
    27
  • 28. … beefy solutions?
    Active sub-systems, manageable grid components
    Ultra efficient consumption devices (80% less!)
    Automated & predictive grid flow management
    Ubiquitous storage
    DC transmission
    Beyond networking - fundamental device capability
    Cyber security
    28
  • 29. Suggestions from a neophyte:
    Design for evolution
    Design for resiliency
    Design for competition
    Design for open standards
    …..
    29
  • 30. What will drive grid change?
    30
  • 31. Mckinsey : US mobile subscribers
    1986 forecast for 2000
    forecast
    actual
    31
    Source: American Heritage Magazine - http://www.americanheritage.com/articles/magazine/it/2007/3/2007_3_8.shtml
  • 32. yesterday’s technology, tomorrow’s forecast
    1980’s phone:
    year 2000 phone:
    2010 phone:
    300,000 available apps
    7bn+ apps downloaded
    32
  • 33. Forecasters, Analysts, Pundits & Astrologers
    1990 Unimaginable: >480 pixel, interlaced, analog HDTV
    1995 Unimaginable: IP in telco networks
    2007 Unimaginable: Iphones & wireless bandwidth use
    Today’s unimaginable becomes tomorrow’s conventional wisdom
    33
  • 34. What would change?
    vk@khoslaventures.com
    34