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Hans-Peter Brunner at Open Economics Workship
Hans-Peter Brunner at Open Economics Workship
Hans-Peter Brunner at Open Economics Workship
Hans-Peter Brunner at Open Economics Workship
Hans-Peter Brunner at Open Economics Workship
Hans-Peter Brunner at Open Economics Workship
Hans-Peter Brunner at Open Economics Workship
Hans-Peter Brunner at Open Economics Workship
Hans-Peter Brunner at Open Economics Workship
Hans-Peter Brunner at Open Economics Workship
Hans-Peter Brunner at Open Economics Workship
Hans-Peter Brunner at Open Economics Workship
Hans-Peter Brunner at Open Economics Workship
Hans-Peter Brunner at Open Economics Workship
Hans-Peter Brunner at Open Economics Workship
Hans-Peter Brunner at Open Economics Workship
Hans-Peter Brunner at Open Economics Workship
Hans-Peter Brunner at Open Economics Workship
Hans-Peter Brunner at Open Economics Workship
Hans-Peter Brunner at Open Economics Workship
Hans-Peter Brunner at Open Economics Workship
Hans-Peter Brunner at Open Economics Workship
Hans-Peter Brunner at Open Economics Workship
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Hans-Peter Brunner at Open Economics Workship

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  • 1. OPEN KNOWLEDGE TOOL: OPERATIONS,OUTCOMES, OBSTACLES, OPTIONS IN THECASE OF REGIONAL TRADE INTEGRATION-- USING GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS (GIS) (ADB R-PATA 7248 – Financed by the Investment Climate Facilitation Fund, established by the Government of Japan) • Hans-Peter Brunner, • Kislaya Prasad • Asian Development Bank • (December 2012) • Disclaimer [ The views expressed in this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank. By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area]
  • 2. Presentation overview:• 1) The GIS application needs and functions – also quick review on work of other development institutions• 2) Grasping big benefits for the region through soft and hard project investments• 3) Visualization of 3 simulation scenarios (How to pick up the “big bills left on the sidewalk” Mancur Olson)• 4) Implications for action (Getting things to openly flow)
  • 3. ADBs Statistical data provided to Google (by ERD)• http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=hbk05e7q8pair_&safe=on&hl=en&dl=en#ctype=m&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=s &met_s=pop_perc_change&scale_s=lin&ind_s=false&idim=country:CO-94:CO-109:CO-47:CO- 13&ifdim=country&pit=1138118400000&hl=en&dl=en 5
  • 4. AidFlows http://www.aidflows.org/• Map navigation of aid statistics from OECD, WB, and ADB Beneficiary statistics Development indicators
  • 5. 1. Needs for GIS in ADB1. Mapping project results as finder As data clearing2. Archive of developed map data house Reduce unnecessary3. Map sharing for infrastructure project replication of data planning For ADB project planning process4. Visualization and analyses of macroscopic data (Economic indices or data for sector outlook) To enhance CoP and ERD function5. Making maps for project support (Map section) This will be skipped to avoid the conflict of the disputed boundary issue.6. Additional application in individual purposes:7. For instance web GIS based regional integration model 7
  • 6. 1. Outcome of functions • Potential outcomes of introducing ADB GIS platform 1. Map data shared by staff/clients 2. Maps found and shared easily Project A GIS platform Project B GIS platformMaps and satellite Use the data in ADB Map in GIS is easy to find and shareimagery purchased in GIS platformeach project 4. Centralized GIS (Core system shared) 3. Thematic analysis performed GIS1 GIS2 GIS3 efficiently GIS platform Project A Project B Project C GIS enable users to perform statistical analysis efficiently GIS 9 platform shared in GIS platform Basic data and software
  • 7. 1. GMS atlas 10
  • 8. 1. Visually layering investments on GIS (over district poverty) ‘Potential, pre-identifiedSouth AsiaRail plus Road Network (purple or orange) investments plus soft border/ ‘behind border’ infrastr. [By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area in(orange dots) this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]
  • 9. 2. Aggregating big benefits/outcomes for the region through soft and hard projectinvestments (Grasping the “big bills left on the sidewalk” Mancur Olson)
  • 10. 2. Agent-Based Model After study region is divided into “tiles”  We populate tiles with economic agents  Match regional demographics Allow agents to produce, consume, work, trade, etc. Match current, or proposed trade infrastructure Simulate COMPETITIVE economic activity  Track incomes, prices, etc.  Evaluate / prioritize investments in simulations
  • 11. 2. Agent based, economic geography model -- Tiles and ‘districts’ overlay[In preparing any country program or strategy, financing any project, or by making any designationof, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian DevelopmentBank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]
  • 12. 2. Trade flow generation by scenario and country Percent Increase in Total Volume of Inter-tile Trade Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh India All Scenario 2 4.05 9.10 2.62 4.74 4.12 Scenario 3 5.24 15.97 4.42 7.22 6.34 Increment 1.19 6.86 1.79 2.48 2.14Both “hard” and “soft” investments have significant effects on inter-tile trade: the totalvolume of trade is higher for all countries (although there are differences in magnitude). Percent Change in Net Exports (Inter-Country Flows) Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh India Scenario 2 6.52 9.47 3.24 33.64 Scenario 3 7.96 16.98 3.69 49.27 Increment 1.35 6.86 0.44 11.70 Inter-country effects are large: Infrastructure investments lead to net exports that are larger for all countries.
  • 13. 2. The trade generation iceberg (‘bills on the side-walk’)• $million p.a.• Wilson Otsuki (2007) for all South Asia• 2643•• Phase 1• 3000• Phase 2• 4000
  • 14. 3. Visualization of 3 operationalsimulation scenarios (Plan and invest –or How to pick up the “big bills left on the sidewalk” Mancur Olson )
  • 15. 3. Prioritizing investments Simulate the economy with alternative trade infrastructure scenarios Three specific investment scenarios are considered (detailed above) (S1) A benchmark scenario with existing, present day transport network only [no new investment] (S2) Enhancement of existing transport with a set of non- perishable trade-supporting investments only (S3) Enhancement of existing transport with a full set of perishable and non-perishable investments
  • 16. 3. Income dynamics (Existing Infrastructure) S1, District-Level Incomes (click to run movie)[By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic areain this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make anyjudgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]
  • 17. 3. Income differences District-income: Income growth above baseline S1, due to S2 investments (click to run movie)[By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic areain this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make anyjudgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]
  • 18. 3. Income differences District-income: Income growth above S2 due to S3 investments (click to run movie)[By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic areain this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make anyjudgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]
  • 19. 3.Income differences District-level income growth above baseline from full AfT investment package (click to run movie)[By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic areain this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make anyjudgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]
  • 20. 3. Some key results Average incomes increase due to AfT investments  Both “hard” and “soft” investments are important for welfare Significant variation is observed across the study region in the benefits from AfT transport and trade investments Many regions in the economic periphery enjoy dramatic improvement in income from investments Regions that become well connected due to infrastructure investments gain the most User fee structure does not significantly affect income growth and levels (but does affect trade flows)
  • 21. 4. Get things to flow•From locked-up •To shared, greenpotential prosperity
  • 22. 4. What next? General Application Development (see business case)  User friendly interface for web GIS, Run MyCode…  Licensing arrangements  Restricted access arrangements, to satisfy government concerns (sovereign rights, info and legal integrity, commercial confidentiality…) Partnering to open the application, and to show its potential of combining with open data How knowledge tool can be made public for use? Ensure sustained development of data base, and refinement Open provision of basic data? Provision of club goods?
  • 23. 4. What next? From Roadmap Approach to Country Investment  Further development of regional integration indicators with targets, baselines  Further development of project concepts, implementation plan, with strong country ownership  Engage governments in opening up the data and application, while serving specific investment needs of governments and ADB, with legally mandated confidentiality

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