predictive analytics!the future of predicting the future Vedant Misra firstname.lastname@example.org Boston BarCamp 2011
the big picture We are witnessing a data explosion. "Everywhere you look, the quantity of information in the world is soaring.According to one estimate, mankind created 150 exabytes of data in 2005. This year, it will create 1,200 exabytes." The Data Deluge. The Economist, Feb 25, 2010. P.S. 1 exabyte is 1 million terabytes.
the big pictureWe are witnessing a data explosion. "we create as much information* in twodays now as we did from the dawn of man through 2003" -Larry Page, CEO, Google *This is mostly lolcats and duckface photos.
ingesting data• tructured information s • xplicitly defined format e • elationships are clear r • SVs, relational C databases, XLS• nstructured information u • o data model n • ixed text, numbers, m figures • mails, webpages, e books, health records, call logs, phone recordings, video footage
digesting data• o NLP D • okenize t • etermine POS d • emmatize l• xtract entities E• ategorize entities Cusing a dynamicontology• eographical tagging G• ssociative net A
spitting up data• owerful visualizations p• ederated search f • eospatial, spatial, temporal g • ersistent background search (alerts) p
complications• igh-resolution access control h• ource, date, location, and other smetadata for tracking pedigree andlineage• dding insight and new data back into adata layer• ir-gapped networks a• evisioning databases r• eal-time hypothesis and intuition rsharing
whats left?• eep analytics: platforms that dunderstand• eplacing IA with AI r• ven fancier statistical methods e naive Bayes classifier, support vector machine, kernel estimation, neural networks, k-nearest neighbor,k-means clustering, kernel PCA, hierarchical clustering, linear regression, neural networks, gaussian process regression, principal component analysis, independent component analysis, hidden Markov models, maximum entropy Markov models, Kalman filters, particle filters, Bayesian networks, Markov random fields, bootstrap aggregating, ensemble averaging...
whats left?• ore science of prediction: m • odelling and validation m • enetic algorithms for finding g symbolic expressions• hen are systems unpredictable? w• escribing groups with game dtheory• hen is individual behavior wimportant?