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    Tnc country pathways andrasko Tnc country pathways andrasko Presentation Transcript

    • Forest
Carbon
Partnership
Facility
 Pathways
to
Success
on
REDD+:

 Countries
Learning
from
Each
Other
 Ken Andrasko World Bank/Environment Dept./FCPF program At TNC REDD eX conference, Cancun, Mexico July 13-16, 2010 www.forestcarbonpartnership.org
    • REDD
+
is
...
a
policy
rocket
with
broad
support:

 Now
what??

 The
Good
News:


 •  

REDD+
is
likely
to
happen.


 •  Serious
discussion
of
up‐scaling
 and
funding.
 •  

We
are
slowly
invenJng
how
to
 do
REDD+,
at
project
and
 naJonal
scales.
 The
Other
News:
 • 


But
we
need
to
harvest
lessons
 faster,
&
apply
them
at
larger
 scales.
 • 



We
need
to
share
experience
&
 rapidly
develop
a
vision
of
what
 naJonal
REDD+

looks
like.
 Achieving REDD+ is a learning-by-doing endeavor for countries
    • Countries
Start
From
Different
Points,
and
Lose
 Forest
as
They
Develop.

Can
REDD+
alter
this
path?

 National forest cover Forest
TransiJon
Curve
 North Amazon Basin Congo Basin Conservation REDD+ bridge ? South Amazon Basin Europe REDD North America South East Asia North East Asia South Asia West Africa Enhancement Oceania Atlantic forest Time Source: Zarin, 2009
    • Three
major
levers
of
forest
based
mi2ga2on,


 each
with
different
characteris2cs


 
 Project
Catalyst
slide,
Copenhagen
2009 Reduced Forest-based abatement deforestation and potential forest degradation Gt CO2e / yr 8 (REDD) LARGEST 6 Enhancement of Forest Carbon Stocks & A/R 3 MEDIUM 2 1 Conservation & 2015 2020 2030 Sustainable Management of Forests SMALLEST Source: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0; Project Catalyst analysis 4
    • Only
30
countries
cover
90
percent
of
deforestaJon
and
80
 percent
of
carbon
stock.

(ForestaJon
is
more
concentrated)
 Project
Catalyst
slide,
Copenhagen,
2009
 Emissions from deforestation Gt CO2e 0.5 0 0 0.1 90% Brazil Indonesia Other top 20 Remaining 9 Next (54) China and Rest of S. Total deforestation with >1% of high/medium India hemisphere countries total ABG deforestation developing carbon stock countries countries 3V 80% 12 4 4 ABG Carbon stock FRA 2005, % of total Source: Houghton; FAO FRA 2005; Hooijer, A. et al., PEAT-CO2, Delft Hydraulics report Q3943 (2006); Project Catalyst analysis 5
    • Challenge: How to rapidly build REDD+ capacity in countries .. .
.
.
while
integraJng
REDD+
into
 naJonal
development
plans,
and

 altering
land
use

incenJves
and
 behavior
 …
for
lasJng
transformaJon
to
low‐ carbon
development
paths
?
 6

    • FCPF:
37
REDD
Country
Experiences.
 15
Readiness
PreparaJon
Proposals
(R‐PPs). 7

    • Countries
Start
From
DisJnct
SituaJons:
 Land
Use
Trends,
DeforestaJon
Drivers,
Governance
 Relative Forest Disclaimer: maps are for illustrative cover Suriname: purposes only. World Bank has no 2000 – 3000 ha views on national boundaries DR: 0%) Indonesia: 1,800,000 ha DR: 1.5 – 2%) Panama: 48,000 ha DR: 0.8 – 1.1%) Ghana: 120,000 ha DR: 1.6 – 2.0 %) Guyana: Absolute deforestation: 20 – 30,000 ha, Deforestation rate (DR: 0.1 – 0.3%) Time The countries on the transitional curve… 8
 Courtesy of Juergen Blaser, of FCPF Technical Advisory panel
    • REDD
Readiness
AcJviJes
(per
FCPF
)
 Contents
of
Readiness
PreparaJon
Proposal
(R‐PP):
 Component
1:

Organize
and
Consult
 1a.
Na2onal
Readiness
Management
Arrangements
 1b.
Stakeholder
Consulta2on
and
Par2cipa2on
 Component
2:

Prepare
the
REDD
plus
Strategy
 2a.
Assessment
of
Land
Use,
Forest
Policy
and
Governance
 2b.
REDD
Strategy
Op2ons
 2c.
REDD
Implementa2on
Framework
 2d.
Social
and
Environmental
Impacts
 Component
3:

Develop
a
Reference
Scenario
 Component
4:

Design
a
Monitoring
System
 4a.
Emissions
and
Removals
 4b.
Other
Benefits
and
Impacts
 Component
5:

Schedule
and
Budget
 Component
6:
Monitoring
&
EvaluaJon
of
program
 9

    • REDD+
requires
strongly
interrelated
program
components.
 Inadequate
design
of
one
leads
to
unsustainable

 or
unmarketable
REDD
 Stakeholder
Consulta2ons
 MRV
System
 Assessment
of
 REDD+

 Design: DeforestaJon
 Strategy
 
 Drivers

+
 Governance and
Programs Measure
and
 report
on
change
 Establish
reference
scenario over
Jme 10
 High quality MRV may be required for participation in global REDD markets & avoidance of REDD tonne price discounting.
    • REDD
Readiness
AcJviJes
(per
FCPF
)
 •  Contents
of
Readiness
Prepara2on
Proposal
(R‐PP):
 Component
1:

Organize
and
Consult
 1a.
Na2onal
Readiness
Management
Arrangements
 1b.
Stakeholder
Consulta2on
and
Par2cipa2on
 Component
2:

Prepare
the
REDD
plus
Strategy
 2a.
Assessment
of
Land
Use,
Forest
Policy
and
Governance
 2b.
REDD
Strategy
Op2ons
 2c.
REDD
Implementa2on
Framework
 2d.
Social
and
Environmental
Impacts
 Component
3:

Develop
a
Reference
Scenario
 Component
4:

Design
a
Monitoring
System
 4a.
Emissions
and
Removals
 4b.
Other
Benefits
and
Impacts
 Component
5:

Schedule
and
Budget
 Component
6:

Monitoring
&
EvaluaJon
of
program

    • Inclusive
consultaJons
on
REDD+

 are
criJcal
early
need
to
forge
a
common
vision
on
REDD+
 INSIGHT: Transparent early consultations with major stakeholders offers promise of REDD+ becoming more inclusive than previous land use dialogues. •  Consultations will require new openness from governments and stakeholders… and need to broaden over time. Examples:
 •  Panama
included
IP
leaders
in
formulaJon
of
R‐PP,
and
in
naJonal
 delegaJon
to
COP14
Poznan,
2008
 •  Ghana,
Nepal,
DRC
offer
detailed
mulJ‐stakeholder
consultaJon
plans.
 14

12

    • ParJcipaJon
in
REDD
Design
Can
Challenge
TradiJonal
 RelaJonships
Between
Governments
&
Stakeholders •  Issue
of
REDD
system
design
can
inherit
pre‐exisJng
failures,
unresolved
 governance,
land
tenure
uncertainty.

 •  Or,
be
fresh
start.

    • Guyana’s
land
tenure:
State
(86%
of
area
esJmated);
Amerindian
 lands;
private.

Mining
claims
overlap
Amerindian
reservaJons.


 •  Maps
oeen
have
been
drawn
in
Georgetown
,
with
minimal
consultaJon
or
 field
work

    • Consultations in Preparation and Refinement of DRC’s R-PP: Seeking a Consensual Plan Since April 2009, Since January 2010, >100 National REDD R-PP validation people refined R-PP via workshop Coordination consulted 4 consultation had 80 participants > 700 people. workshops.
    • REDD
Readiness
AcJviJes
(per
FCPF
)
 •  Contents
of
Readiness
Prepara2on
Proposal
(R‐PP):
 Component
1:

Organize
and
Consult
 1a.
Na2onal
Readiness
Management
Arrangements
 1b.
Stakeholder
Consulta2on
and
Par2cipa2on
 Component
2:

Prepare
the
REDD
plus
Strategy
 2a.
Assessment
of
Land
Use,
Forest
Policy
and
Governance
 2b.
REDD
Strategy
Op2ons
 2c.
REDD
Implementa2on
Framework
 2d.
Social
and
Environmental
Impacts
 Component
3:

Develop
a
Reference
Scenario
 Component
4:

Design
a
Monitoring
System
 4a.
Emissions
and
Removals
 4b.
Other
Benefits
and
Impacts
 Component
5:

Schedule
and
Budget
 16

    • Linking
SubnaJonal
Pilot
Projects
to
NaJonal
REDD:
 e.g.,
Indonesia
(e.g.,
Berau),
DRC,
Brazil,
Mexico

 National Baseline, ISSUES
TO
RESOLVE: 
 Accounting & monitoring • 
Harmonizing
reference
 scenarios
&
MRV
between:
 • 

NaJonal
scale,


 Inter-regional • 

SubnaJonal
regions,

 strategy and • 
REDD

projects.


 policies • 

Use
registry
of
acJviJes?
 • 
Who
owns
emissions
 REGION 1: REGION 3: reducJons?
 baseline & REGION 2: baseline & policies baseline & policies • 
How
revenues
would
be
 policies shared?
 • 
How
acJviJes
are
regulated? Adapted from: Andrea Cattaneo, Woods Hole Research Center
    • REDD+
requires
unprecedented
naJonal

 planning
across
sectors.


 Requires integrated vision of how REDD+ fits into emerging national, low-carbon development strategy. •  Mainstreaming REDD+ may require putting REDD at the center of national development policy •  . . . elevated to highest levels of government. Examples:
 •  DRC
Congo’s
REDD
unit
using
its
R‐PP
to
coordinate
across
ministries,
 donors,
and
FCPF
and
UN‐REDD
programs.
 •  Guyana
developing
Low
Carbon
Development
Strategy
led
by
its
President.
 18

    • CoordinaJng
NaJonal
REDD
AcJviJes:

DemocraJc
 Republic
of
Congo
example
 Harmonized Components REDD Activities and Funding of Readiness Coordinated via Single Country (UN-REDD / FFCPF) Readiness Preparation In Country’s FCPF R-PP: Proposal: (R-PP) Management
of
Readiness
 UN‐REDD

 REDD
Strategy
OpJons
 DRC’s
 naJonal
 REDD
ImplementaJon
 process
 Framework
 and
 FCPF
 Reference
Scenario
 workplan
 Other
 NaJonal
Monitoring
System
 Donors

    • What
REDD
Strategy
Makes
Sense
for
Each
Region
&
 Its
DeforestaJon
Drivers
&
Governance
Status
??
 Himalaya Mountains: NEPAL Exploitation for fuelwood Siliwak and Middle Hills: Community forestry innovation Terai Lowland Forest: Larger-scale agriculture; immigration; recent conflict Total Area: 147,181 Sq. Km. Population: 24 M
    • Linking REDD to Low Carbon Development Strategy: Finding Feasible Options (DRC example) From: “Democratic Republic of Congo’s REDD+ Potential,” December 2009 High 

AfforestaJon
 

Fuelwood
for
 Fossil
Fuel
 Intensified
 Subsistence
 Agriculture
 Agriculture
 Scale of GHG Commercial
 Agriculture
 Mitigation (extensive)
 

other
 

Irrigated
 

other
 Agriculture
 Low Feasibility of REDD Option High
    • Guyana’s
Low
Carbon
Development
Strategy:
 Using
REDD
to
Create
AlternaJves
to
DeforestaJon


    • REDD
Readiness
AcJviJes
(per
FCPF
)
 •  Contents
of
Readiness
Prepara2on
Proposal
(R‐PP):
 Component
1:

Organize
and
Consult
 1a.
Na2onal
Readiness
Management
Arrangements
 1b.
Stakeholder
Consulta2on
and
Par2cipa2on
 Component
2:

Prepare
the
REDD
plus
Strategy
 2a.
Assessment
of
Land
Use,
Forest
Policy
and
Governance
 2b.
REDD
Strategy
Op2ons
 2c.
REDD
Implementa2on
Framework
 2d.
Social
and
Environmental
Impacts
 Component
3:

Develop
a
Reference
Scenario
 Component
4:

Design
a
Monitoring
System
 4a.
Emissions
and
Removals
 4b.
Other
Benefits
and
Impacts
 Component
5:

Schedule
and
Budget
 23

    • REDD
AcJviJes
Selected
Vary
in
Timing,
&
Affect
Reference
 Case
&
MRV
Design.

DegradaJon
is
More
Complex

 24

    • Reference
Case:

Global
Requirements
&
Guidance
Likely
Different
 from
NaJonal
&
Project
Needs.

HarmonizaJon
is
Challenging.



 Global Global
 Objective Target
Reference
 Reference Case?:
 Case ?? ‐ Via
nego2a2ons?
 (independent, ‐ ‐
via
analy2c
 via remote Regional
 method?
 sensing?) Reference
 Case:
4‐5
 countries
 Issues: National -  National scale probably key Implementation for REDD and FCPF Reference Case ??: Subna;onal
 - To implement -  Policy discussion focusing Reference
 global case on global scale to date Case
 Subna;onal
 -  How resolve relation Reference
Case
 between global, national & project??
    • Brazil:
Amazon
Fund.

Example
of
One
Approach
for
a
 Historic
Reference
Scenario
Using
Annual
+
Default
Data.
 Carbon density data limited, so use conservative 100tC/ha as default.
    • Subnational Reference Case, Driven by Development Plans: Brazilian Amazon Baseline GHG emissions 2007-2050 Amazon Basin Business as Usual Deforestation Scenario = 2.6 million km2 deforested by 2050 Soares-Filho et al. 2006 Issues: ≅  47 billions of -  How find tons of Carbon project in ≅  172.3 billions of national refer. tons of CO e 2 case? 225 tC/ha -  Use project or large-scale Carbon Stock resolution & Saatchi et al., 2007 data? 0 tC/ha
    • SimAmazonia Model Results: Opportunity Cost of Land for Soy, Logging, Cattle (Soares-Filho et al. 2006) > US$ 13 per ton US$ 8-13 per ton US$ 3-8 per ton US$ 3-0 per ton deforested Paved road US$ 0 per ton Cerrado biome Unpaved road Custo de oportunidade
    • Expanding
SimAmazonia
Model
to
All
of
Brazil:
 Low Carbon Country Case Study, World Bank et al. Source: Britaldo Soares Filho 772 units 772 Amazônia Caatinga Cerrado Pantanal Scenarios of carbon Mata Atlântica emissions from expanding crops Pampa for biofuels 1x1 km = 4500x4500 = 20 M cells
    • Evolving
Mexico
MRV:

Combines
22,000‐plot
forest
inventory
+
 high
resoluJon
remote
sensing
+
naJonal
ecological
process
model
 •  Forest Inventory •  Landsat •  AVHRR •  MODIS •  SPOT
    • CCI
Guyana
Proposal:

Transparent,
NaJonally
Sustainable,

 And
InternaJonally
Acceptable
MRV
System


 ReporJng:
 NaJonal
Measurement
System
for
 Forest
Carbon
 NaJonal

 Economic

Development
 Data

 Strategy
 Models
 Outputs

 CollecJon
 Policy
 ReporJng
 Satellite
Data
 Algorithms
 Emissions
 ReporJng
NaJonal
 Accounts
 Ground
Data
 Data
Fusion
 Removals
 To
meet
internaJonal
 obligaJons
under
UNFCCC
 Climate
Data
 Raster
 Mapping
 (Emissions
EsJmates

 Environment
 and
 and
ProjecJons)
&

 Forest
ClassificaJon
 Visuals
 to
enter
Carbon
Markets
 SpaJal
Analysis
 Land
 Management
 InformaJon
 Management
 PracJces

    • Budget:

EsJmated
Cost
of
REDD+,
Early
 EsJmates
(Sathaye,
Andrasko
et
al.,
in
press)
 Components of RED FCPF 2010 FCPF 2008 Eliasch Readiness Estimates in 9 Estimate Estimate: High National R-PPs (Average, in (in ‘000) (‘000) ‘000) REDD management and $3,530 $525 + 365 $2,000 consultations Develop REDD strategy $1,920 $450 $1,000 Environmental and social $1,440 $50 - impacts assessment of REDD strategy REDD implementation $1,200 $341 $1,500 framework Develop reference scenario $2,020 $ 516 $4,000 Design REDD MRV system $6,960 $1,008 - TOTAL (without annual MRV $17,260 $3,250 $8,500 costs) Source: TNC, 2010 (average of 9 submitted country Readiness Preparation Proposals, on www.forestcarbonpartners.org); FCPF, 2008; Eliasch, 2008 as summarized in FCPF, 2008.
    • REDD
TargeJng
&
Modeling
Task:

Overlaying
 Dynamic
Land
Use,
Benefits,
&
Governance
Issues
 •  REDD Opportunities Vary by Deforestation Threat Opportunity Cost (OC) of Land, & C Density Class, Carbon Density, and Threat of for East Kalimantan Deforestation (Gibbs and Brown, 2007) •  Can we identify high priority interventions, with low barriers to implementation? •  What are priority governance concerns with these targeted lands and REDD strategies? • What are the capacity building and investment needs? • What are the potential risks, environmental and social, and economic? Gibbs, H. and S. Brown. 2007. Geographical Distribution of Biomass Carbon in Tropical Southeast Asian Forests: A Database. ORNL/CDIAC.
    • How
Can
FCPF
and
REDD+
Contribute
to
Low
Carbon
 Development
Strategies?
 •  Provide
best
pracJces
for
stakeholder
consultaJon
and
 parJcipaJon


 •  Encourage
cross‐sectoral
naJonal
REDD
management
structure.
 •  Share
early
methods
for
reference
scenario
sekng
for
forest
cover
 change
over
Jme:

historic
and
future
forecasJng
 •  Share
design
for
MRV
(measurement,
reporJng
and
verificaJon)
of
 REDD+
within
LCDS
context;
 –  Help
encourage
high‐quality,
internaJonally
consistent
MRV
 –  Help
countries
produce
compliance‐grade
REDD+
carbon
assets.
 •  Nest
REDD+
within
a
broader
vision
of
naJonal
development,
 reached
via
consensus
process

–

instead
of
carbon
cowboy
deals.
 •  
Provide
global
plamorm
for
experimentaJon,
pilot
methods
 development,
and
carbon
finance
pilots
–
leading
to
confidence
in
 REDD+
over
Jme.



    • Bonom‐line:
Major
new
REDD+
ideas
and
pilots
are
 emerging
from
the
countries

–

not
top‐down.


 
FCPF
provides
a
useful
plamorm
for
sharing
 knowledge
and
experience
 FCPF
example:
 •  
Brazil
is
sharing
Amazon
Fund
experience
with
 FCPF
countries,
inc.

Indonesia

&

DRC.
 •  Vietnam
+
Mekong
Basin
countries,
and
Congo
 Basin
countries,
exploring
regional
cooperaJon
on
 reference
scenarios
+
MRV.
 •  Indonesia
issued
naJonal
regulaJons
managing
 REDD
process,
followed
by
DRC
and
others.
 35

    • Summary:

FCPF
partnership
experiment
is
demonstraJng
the

 power
of
transparent
sharing
of
experience
–
but
needs
acceleraJon
 



 
 

Lesson:


 



REDD
countries
are
learning
by
 doing
and
sharing.

But
need:
 •  

Technical
assistance
to
build
in‐ country
capacity
to
plan
and
 implement
REDD+
acJviJes
 •  Clearer internaJonal
policy
and
 methods
guidance,
to

scale
up
 REDD+

Readiness.


 36

    • The
Road
Ahead
Shall
Be
InteresJng
…