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    Stickler_modeling baselines_final Stickler_modeling baselines_final Presentation Transcript

    • Centro de Sensoriamento Remoto
      UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS
      Modelling spatially explicit forward-looking baselines
      Claudia Stickler
      REDDex, July 13-15, 2010
    • Applications of the Amazon Scenarios
      modeling system in Amazon REDD projects
      • Juma (Amazonas State)**
      • Surui (Rondonia indigenous land project)**
      • State of Acre
      • Northwestern MatoGrosso project**
      • Xingu Social-environmental Carbon
      • Brazilian Amazon
      ** Used model results not developed for reference level estimation
    • MatoGrosso REDD targets within a national program
      Annual Deforestation (km2)
    • Indigenous Lands
      ~60% of area
      Protected Areas
      Sustainable Use Areas
      ~98% of deforestation
      Private Lands
      508,474 km2
      >95% of possible REDD+ participant nations
    • Historical average
      3.3% = 10,502 ha/yr
      2.3% = 216,376 ha/yr
      1.3% = 483,380 ha/yr
      0.0035% = 3791 ha/yr
      Nepstad et al. 2010
    • Simulated (modeled) baseline
      • Dinamica EGO platform (www.csr.ufmg.br/dinamica/)
      • High to medium resolution (100-m to 1-km)
      • Calibrated and run at nested sub-basin levels
      • Regrows forests and cerrado
      Stickler et al. 2009 GCB; Stickler 2009
    • Sub-basins (2nd order)
      Variable types for calibration
      clearing
      roads
      topography
      population centers
      streams
      protected areas
      soils/suitability
    • Basic units of change
      Microbasins (7th order +)
      7572 watersheds
      mean = 5981 ha
      range: 1 – 70,766 ha
      Cells
      2940 x 7434 cells
      4 ha (200 x 200-m)
    • Scenarios
      Business as Usual
      historical rate and pattern of deforestation continues
      historical level of compliance with environmental legislation continues
      low, high, average
      varying weight of historical protection of PAs, ILs, etc.
      Current Forest Code
      80% “legal reserve” (RL) in forest biome; 35% RL in cerrado; 100% forest in riparian zone
      Varying protection of indigenous lands, protected areas
      State Zoning Plans
      4 zones: 80% forest RL in 2 zones; 50% forest RL in 1 zone; 35% cerrado RL in 3 zones; 100% forest in riparian zone
      Varying protection of indigenous lands, protected areas
      Stickler 2009; Nepstad et al. 2010
    • High
      Low
      Nepstad et al. 2010
    • Comparison of modeled baselines with historical average, Xingu River Basin
      Nepstad et al. 2010
    • Initial
      (2007)
      BAU Average
      (2037)
      BAU Low
      (2037)
      BAU High
      (2037)
    • Comparison of modeled baselines with policy intervention scenarios
      Nepstad et al. 2010
    • BAU Average
      (2037)
      Forest Code
      (2037)
      Zoning
      (2037)
      Forest Code + 20% in ILs
      (2037)
    • Comparison of modeled baselines for private lands in the Xingu River basin
      Nepstad et al. 2010
    • Comparison of modeled baselines for indigenous lands in the Xingu River basin
      Nepstad et al. 2010
    • Carbon stocks & emissionsonindigenouslands in theBrazilian Amazon
      Nivel de amenaza
      Priorización de áreas protegidas
      Soares-Filho et al. 2010 PNAS
    • Assessing ecological & economic trade-offs
      • Hydrology:THMB surface hydrology transport model (Coe et al. 2000, 2009)
      • Climate
      • Water Quality: Basic indicators (Neill et al. 2006, Nepstad et al. 2007; Macedo et al., in prep.)
      • Habitat Quality & Biodiversity Potential
      • Fire Incidence (and associated CO2 emissions) (Silvestrini et al. 2009, Stickler et al. in prep)
      • Carbon sequestration potential
      • Opportunity cost
      • Restoration costs
    • Collaborators
      UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS
      Ane Alencar (IPAM)
      Oriana Almeida (IPAM, UFPa)
      Alessandro Baccini (WHRC)
      Paulo Brando (IPAM)
      Oswaldo Carvalho (IPAM)
      Andrea Cattaneo (OECD)
      Mike Coe (WHRC)
      Laura Dietzsch (IPAM)
      Josef Kellndorfer (WHRC)
      Andre Lima (IPAM)
      Marcia Macedo (Columbia U)
      Paulo Moutinho (IPAM)
      Daniel Nepstad (IPAM)
      Hermann Rodrigues (UFMG)
      Britaldo Soares Filho (UFMG)
      Osvaldo Stella (IPAM)
      Wayne Walker (WHRC)
      Toby McGrath (WHRC, IPAM)
      Frank Merry (Moore)
      Maria Bowman (UCB, WHRC)
      John Carter (AT)
      Sergio Rivero (UFPa)
      With support from:
    • Sample of REDD-Relevant Publications from Amazon Scenarios Program
      Merry, F., B. Soares-Filho, D. Nepstad, G. Amacher, and H. Rodrigues. 2009.
      Balancing conservation and economic stability: the future of the Amazon timber industry.
      Environmental Management
      Nepstad, D., B. Soares-Filho, F. Merry, A. Lima, P. Moutinho, et al. 2009.
      The end of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Science 326: 1350-1351.
      Nepstad, D, A. Veríssimo, A. Alencar, etal. 1999. Large-scale impoverishment of
      Amazonian forests by logging and fire. Nature. 398:505-508.
      Soares-Filho, B. S., P. Moutinho, D. Nepstad, et al. 2010. Role of Brazilian Amazon
      protected areas in climate mitigation. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci.
      Soares-Filho, B., D. Nepstad, L. Curran, et al. 2006. Modeling Amazon conservation.
      Nature 440: 520-523.
      Stickler, C.M., D.C. Nepstad, M.T. Coe, D.G. McGrath, H.O. Rodrigues, et al. 2009.
      The potential ecological costs and cobenefits of REDD: a critical review and case
      study from the Amazon region. Global Change Biology 15:2803–2824
      Vera-Diaz, M. del C., R. K. Kaufmann, D. C. Nepstad, P. Schlesinger. 2007.
      An interdisciplinary model of soybean yield in the Amazon Basin: the climatic,
      edaphic, and economic determinants. Ecological Economics
    • Proposal for distribution of benefits within nested levels
      Lima et al. 2010; Nepstad et al. 2010
    • Potential nesting of the Xingu “Socio-environmental Carbon” Project
      C-REDDs Allocated to Amazon States
      Mato Grosso C-REDD Allocation C-REDD Allocation to Other States
      State Institutions/
      Governance
      C-REDD Buffer
      Private Land Program
      Protected Area Program
      Farm Settlement Program
      Indigenous Land Program
      100 MtCO2e
      $
      Regulated
      Entities, Other
      Investors
      Indigenous Land Fund
      “C-REDDs”
      Indigenous Land Projects (Xingu, NW, etc.)
      Mato Grosso Indigenous Land Systemic Program
    • Historical average extended into future
      Nepstad et al. 2010