Employment Outlook Survey 2005

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  • 1. 1st Quarter 2005 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Ireland
  • 2. Contents Republic of Ireland Employment Outlook Regional Comparisons 3 Sector Comparisons 5 Global Employment Outlook 9 International Comparisons - Americas 10 International Comparisons - Asia Pacific 11 International Comparisons - Europe 12 About the Survey 14 About Manpower 15 Please note that throughout this report, the figure used in all graphs is the “Net Employment Outlook”. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. 2
  • 3. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Ireland Republic of Ireland The Question How do you anticipate total employment at your location quarter is recorded at the overall national level, the Net to change in the three months to the end of March 2005 Employment Outlook is up 12 percentage points compared to the corresponding period of 2004. Table 1: Q1 Results for last 5 Quarters % Increase % Decrease % no change % Don’t know Net employment outlook Q1 2005 19 4 74 3 +15 Q4 2004 18 4 76 2 +14 Q3 2004 23 5 72 0 +18 Q2 2004 16 7 77 0 +9 Q1 2004 14 11 75 0 +3 as compared to the current quarter? Of the Irish Chart 1: Q1 Results for last 5 Quarters employers interviewed, 19% said they expect to hire 40 more people during the first quarter of 2005. Only 4% 30 expect to reduce their workforce, and 74% anticipate no 20 change. The Net Employment Outlook therefore remains 10 at an upbeat +15%.Whilst no meaningful quarter-on- 0 -10 -20 2003 2004 2005 Regional Comparisons Positive hiring intentions are found in all of the Irish As is shown in the following section, whilst quarter regions. Employers in Munster and Connaught have the on quarter Net Employment Outlook increases are most optimistic expectations, with those in Ulster and observed in only two regions [Dublin and Leinster], Dublin holding more cautious views. year on year increases are recorded in every region. Chart 2: Net Employment Outlook by Region Connaught + 24 Dublin +7 Leinster +15 Munster +28 National average +16 Ulster +8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 3
  • 4. Connaught Dublin The greatest quarter-on-quarter increase is recorded in The trend of increasing optimism observed throughout Connaught where the Net Employment Outlook is up 2004 ends with the Net Employment Outlook for Dublin 25 percentage points to a healthy +24%. halving since the previous quarter to a level similar to that recorded at the corresponding period of 2004. Chart 3: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Connaught Chart 4: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Dublin 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005 Leinster Munster Despite a percentage point quarter-on-quarter The greatest year-on-year regional increase is observed decrease, employers in Leinster expect a positive start in Munster. With the Net Employment Outlook up 27 to 2005, the Net Employment Outlook up 16 percentage points year-on-year and 13 percentage percentage points year-on-year to +15%. points quarter-on-quarter, employers here are expecting active levels of first quarter hiring activity. Chart 5: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Leinster Chart 6: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Munster 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005 4
  • 5. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Ireland Ulster No meaningful quarter-on-quarter or year-on-year change is found in Ulster where employers have cautiously optimistic first quarter hiring intentions. Chart 7: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Ulster 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2003 2004 2005 Sector Comparisons Employers across all but one sector of the labor market Employers in the Wholesale and Retail Trade [+24%] have positive hiring intentions for the first quarter of and Electricity, Gas and Water [+21%] anticipate the 2005. As was the case last quarter, the single greatest optimism regarding the forthcoming quarter. exception is the Restaurants and Hotels [-8%] sector. Chart 8: Net Employment Outlook by Sector Agriculture, etc. 15 Community, etc. 7 Construction 19 Electricity, etc. 21 Finance, etc. 13 Manufacturing 3 Mining & Quarrying 1 Pharmaceutical 2 Restaurant & Hotels -8 Transport, etc. 6 Wholesale & Retail 24 National average 9 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 5
  • 6. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Community, Social and Personal Despite a 6-percentage point quarter-on-quarter The greatest quarter-on-quarter decrease is observed decrease in Net Employment Outlook, employers in the in the Community, Social and Personal sector where Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing sector have upbeat the Net Employment Outlook is down 28 percentage expectations regarding the first quarter of 2005. points. Is is noticeable however that employers in this sector are considerably more positive than at the corresponding period of 2004 when the Net Employment Outlook stood 17 percentage points ower at -10%. Chart 9: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Chart 10: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Community, Social and Personal 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005 Construction Electricity, Gas and Water Unlike 12 months previously, employers in the The greatest quarter-on-quarter increase in Net Construction sector anticipate positive first quarter Employment Outlook is recorded in the Electricity, Gas hiring activity, the Net Employment Outlook standing at and Water sector where employers anticipate active an upbeat +19% first quarter hiring activity. Chart 11: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Chart 12: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Construction Electricity, Gas and Water 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005 6
  • 7. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Ireland Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Manufacturing and Business Services The greatest year-on-year increase in Net Employment Whilst employers in the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Outlook is observed in the Manufacturing sector. That and Business Services sector are upbeat regarding said, employers here expect a quiet start to 2005 with their first quarter hiring intentions, a notable year-on- the Net Employment Outlook largely unchanged since year downturn is observed, with the Net Employment the last quarter at +3%. Outlook down 7 percentage points on the corresponding period of 2004. Chart 13: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Chart 14: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services Manufacturing 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005 Mining and Quarrying Pharmaceutical Employers in the Mining and Quarrying sector Within the Pharmaceutical sector, employers expect a anticipate a stagnant start to 2005 with the Net slow-paced first quarter with the Net Employment Employment Outlook down 15 percentage points Outlook down 17 percentage points to +2%. This quarter-on-quarter and 12 percentage points year-on- does reflect an improvement since the corresponding year to +1%. period of 2004 when the Net Employment Outlook stood 7 percentage points lower at -5%. Chart 15: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Chart 16: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Mining and Quarrying Pharmaceutical 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005 7
  • 8. Restaurants & Hotels Transport, Storage and Communication Whilst employers in the Restaurants & Hotels sector have pessimistic expectations regarding first quarter Only modest levels of hiring activity are expected by hiring activity, a notable year-on-year Net Employment employers in the Transport, Storage and Outlook improvement of 16 percentage points is Communication sector where the Net Employment observed. Outlook stands at +6%. Chart 17: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Chart 18: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Restaurants and Hotels Transport, Storage and Communication 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005 Wholesale and Retail Trade Solid first quarter hiring activity is expected by employers in the Wholesale and Retail Trade sector where the Net Employment Outlook for the current quarter [+24%] is higher than at any previous time since the establishment of the survey in Ireland. Chart 19: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Wholesale and Retail 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 2003 2004 2005 8
  • 9. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Europe Global Employment Outlook Over 35,000 employers have been interviewed across 19 countries and territories to measure anticipated employment trends between January and March 2005. Regional & International Comparisons Employers in 17 of 19 countries and territories say they since the first quarter of 2004, whilst employer expect positive hiring activity in the coming quarter, with confidence in Italy has decreased slightly over the same 12 countries reporting stronger hiring levels compared period of time. to one year ago. New Zealand and Hong Kong In the U.S., Canada and the UK, seasonally adjusted employers once again reported the strongest results reveal continuing employer optimism and solid anticipated hiring trends for the quarter ahead. hiring levels with all three countries recording year-over- Although employers in both Italy and Germany are year improvements. Notably, Canadian and American reporting negative Net Employment Outlooks for this employers reported the strongest first-quarter outlooks quarter, German employer confidence has improved in four years. REGIONAL & INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change AMERICAS Q4 2004 Q1 2005 Q4 2004 to Q1 2005 % % 1 1 Canada 13(17) 4(18) -9(+1)1 Mexico 18 12 -6 1 1 United States 21(20) 14(21) -7(+1)1 Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change ASIA PACIFIC Q4 2004 Q1 2005 Q4 2004 to Q1 2005 % % Australia 17 17 0 Hong Kong 25 26 1 Japan 11 13 2 New Zealand 29 30 1 Sinapore 14 8 -6 Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change EUROPE Q4 2004 Q1 2005 Q4 2004 to Q1 2005 % % Austria 4 1 -3 Belgium 7 5 -2 France 5 2 -3 Germany -2 -6 -4 Ireland 14 15 1 Italy -1 -1 0 Netherlands 6 3 -3 Norway 7 12 5 Spain 5 5 0 Sweden 9 5 -4 1 1 1 UK 18(14) 14(18) -4(+4) 1. Number in parentheses is Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity for Canada, the UK and the United States. 9
  • 10. Americas Over 21,000 interviews have been conducted across Based on the seasonally adjusted data, employers in the United States, Canada and Mexico to measure the United States posted the region’s strongest Net anticipated employment trends between January and Employment Outlook. U.S. and Canadian employers March 2005. The overall regional outlook is positive reported their strongest first-quarter outlooks in four with employers in all three countries forecasting year- years. Mexican employers expect to hire less in the first over-year improvements. quarter than they did at the close of 2004. However, the hiring outlook is comparable to levels reported at this time last year. Canada Mexico 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005 Line shows seasonally adjusted data. USA 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2003 2004 2005 Line shows seasonally adjusted data. 10
  • 11. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Europe Asia Pacific Over 6,000 interviews have been conducted across Kong, it is noticeable that Hong Kong’s Net Asia Pacific to measure anticipated employment trends Employment Outlook has increased at every quarter between January and March 2005. since the establishment of the survey. Singapore employers reported weaker hiring activity compared to Continued positive hiring activity is expected in all of the the previous quarter. Employers in Japan revealed a countries surveyed in Asia Pacific, with employers in considerable Net Employment Outlook improvement New Zealand reporting the most positive outlook. year-over-year. Employers in both Australia and Employers in Hong Kong also revealed optimistic hiring Singapore reveal no meaningful year-over-year changes intentions for the first three months of the year with in anticipated hiring patterns. their strongest outlook in seven quarters. In Hong Australia Hong Kong 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005 Japan New Zealand 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005 This country joined the survey in Q2 2004. Singapore 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2003 2004 2005 No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. 11
  • 12. Europe Over 10,000 interviews have been conducted across most buoyant hiring intentions in Europe with Ireland 11 European nations to measure anticipated reporting a considerable year-over-year improvement. employment trends between January and March 2005. Employers in Norway are very upbeat about first- The overall regional Net Employment Outlook for quarter hiring intentions, reporting the highest level ever Europe is positive with only employers in Italy and recorded for the country. Employers in Germany, Germany continuing to reveal negative hiring intentions although forecasting a negative outlook for the quarter for the quarter ahead. However, 6 of the 11 countries ahead, are less pessimistic than they were in the first anticipate decreases in year-over-year outlooks. quarter of 2004. Notably, in the next three months French employers are anticipating the weakest hiring Employers in Ireland and the UK continue to report the levels since the survey began in this country. Austria Belgium 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005 No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. France Germany 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005 12
  • 13. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Global Ireland Italy 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005 No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. Netherlands Norway 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005 Spain Sweden 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005 UK 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2003 2004 2005 Line shows seasonally adjusted data. 13
  • 14. About the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted clearer picture of the data over time. Manpower intends to add quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the future, decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the as more historical data is compiled. next quarter. The survey has been running for more than 40 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in Sectors the world. Various factors underpin the success of the Manpower The industry sectors that are reported for each country in this Employment Outlook Survey: report are representative of the local economy. In some areas of Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of the report, we have reported the data in two broad sector focus. categories: Industry and Services. These categories are consistent Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the only with standards of other respected international data sources. The forward-looking survey, asking employers to forecast employment “Industry” category includes sectors such as: construction, over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus manufacturing, mining and public utilities. The “Services” category on retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past. includes wholesale and retail trade; restaurants and hotels; Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derived all transportation and storage; communication; finance; insurance; of its information from a single question. real estate; other business services and public administration. Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative sample of employers from throughout the countries in which it is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from History of the Survey Manpower’s customer base. 1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook Robust: The survey is based on interviews with more than 35,000 Survey launched in the United States and Canada. public and private employers across 19 countries and territories to 1966 Manpower’s UK operation launches the equivalent of the measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This United States survey, naming the report the Quarterly sample allows for analysis to be performed across specific sectors Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts the and regions to provide more detailed information. same forward looking research format as the United States survey and is the first of its kind in Europe. Methodology 1976 2nd generation of Manpower’s Employment Outlook The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using a Survey launched in the United States and Canada. validated methodology, in accordance with the highest standards Research methodology is updated to evolve with in market research. The research team for the 19 countries and advancements in the field of market research. territories where the survey is currently conducted includes 2002 Manpower UK’s Quarterly Survey of Employment Manpower’s Market Intelligence team; the Organization Research Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research and Analysis Division of Right Management Consultants - an methodology. Manpower’s operations in Mexico and independent operating division of Manpower Inc.; NOP World and Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries. Grupo IDM. The survey has been structured to be representative 2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook of each national economy. The margin of error for all national, Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total 18 regional and global data is not greater than +/-4.2%. countries worldwide: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, In Ireland, the national survey is conducted by Right Management Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Consultants and includes 562 employers. With this number of United Kingdom and United States. interviews, the margin of error for the Ireland Survey is +/-4%. 2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. Net Employment Outlook Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment Outlook”. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook. Seasonal Adjustment Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for Canada, the United States and United Kingdom to provide additional insight into the survey data. These adjustments make it possible to review the data without the employment fluctuations that normally occur at the same time each year, thus providing a 14
  • 15. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey About Manpower Inc About Manpower Ireland Manpower Inc. (NYSE:MAN) is a world leader in the employment Manpower is Ireland’s leading provider of workforce management services industry, offering customers a continuum of services to solutions specializing in permanent and temporary recruitment, meet their needs throughout the employment and business cycle. HR services, managed services, outsourcing and HR consultancy. The company specializes in permanent, temporary and contract Manpower Ireland’s network of offices allows the company to recruitment; employee assessment; training; career transition and meet the needs of local and national customers. This includes organizational consulting services. Manpower’s world wide numerous small and medium sized enterprises, as well as larger network of 4,300 offices in 67 countries and territories enables the organisations. company to meet the needs of its 400, 000 customers per year, including small and medium size enterprises in all industry The focus of Manpower’s work is on raising productivity through sectors, as well as the world’s largest multinational corporations. improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction, enabling The focus of Manpower’s work is on raising productivity through customers to concentrate on their core business. improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction, enabling customers to concentrate on their core business activities. In Manpower has a highly skilled workforce of over 2000 temporary addition to the Manpower branch, the company operates under employees who stay loyal to the company (and it customers) the brand names of Right Management Consultants, Jefferson thanks to best in class employment benefits. These include a Wells, Elan, Brook Street and Right Management Consultants. contract of employment and a free e-learning toll offering staff More information on Manpower Inc. is available at over 1,000 courses in a diverse range of subjects, keeping www.manpower.com. Manpower’s workforce up to date with today’s ever-changing working environment. 2004, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved 15
  • 16. Manpower, 54 Grafton Street, Dublin 2 Tel: (+)35 31 645 5200 www.manpower.ie © 2004, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved.