C S Rao


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C S Rao

  1. 1. WiMAX: Changing the Game CS RAO Chairman,WiMAX Forum, 16th Sept 2009
  2. 2. Internet Based World that’s going mobile 1.4 billion Internet users >150 million websites 10 hours of.new video uploaded to YouTube every minute 1 5B web searches daily 1 billion IM users 10 billion videos viewed every month 100, 100,000 blogs created daily ¾ of a trillion dollars online sales worldwide 3 million Twitter messages sent every day
  3. 3. PC Based World that’s going Mobile Commerce Information Productivity Entertainment Medical Communication Education
  4. 4. 1.4 billion Internet users >150 million websites 1.5B web searches daily Worldwide 10 hours of new video uploaded to YouTube every minute 1 billion IM users 10 billion videos viewed every month 100,000 blogs created daily ¾ of a trillion dollars online sales worldwide 3 million Twitter messages sent every day Internet users : 1.4M in 1998, 81 M in 2009 Jan YouTube : Total Users June ‘09 7.8 million Average is 326 min/month India 8% growth month on month Face book : Total Unique visitors June ‘09 5.9 million Average is 285 min/month 10% month to month growth
  5. 5. Explosion of Video Total Broadband Videos Viewed Worldwide – ’07 over 98% of HTTP Requests Were Video Billions 40 30 Average is Average is 350 285 min/month min/month 20 9% 10% growth month 10 growth month to month to month 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: ABI Research
  6. 6. Market Realities  The Internet  Always Connected  Mobile Computing is a Must  3 Mbps + Required
  7. 7. Rural Health Education eGovernance MicroFinance Video Safety WiMAX for India: The Right BB Connections for Young India , Inclusive India and Prosperous India
  8. 8. Mobile WiMAX: the Best of Available Options Peak Data Rate RAN Access Technology Downlink Uplink Latency WiMAX Release 1.0 40 Mbps 10 Mbps* 40 ms TDD (2:1 Ratio) 10 MHz Today HSPA (today) 14 Mbps 2 Mbps 50-250 ms HSUPA 14 Mbps 5.8 Mbps 50-250 ms HSPA Evolved (Rel 7) 28 Mbps 11.6 Mbps 50-250 ms MIMO 2x2 HSPA Evolved 42 Mbps 11.6 Mbps 50-250 ms Future MIMO+64QAM downlink LTE (Rel 8) 2x5MHz 43.2 Mbps 21.6 Mbps 30 ms Mobile WiMAX™ 2.0 300+Mbps, 20MHz expected ’10/’11 (802.16m)
  9. 9. Mobile Broadband Evolving to OFDMA + MIMO 2007 2010 Cellular 3GPP 1G 2G 3G LTE Analog TDMA WCDMA Broadband Wireless - WiMAX 802.16d 802.16d 802.16e 802.16e 802.16m Wireless LAN - Wi-Fi Wi- 802.11a/b/g 802.11a/b/g 802.11n 802.11n OFDMA + MIMO New Spectrum All- All-IP Core Network
  10. 10. WiMAX vs Other Technologies Average File Transfer Rates EV- EV-DO Rev. A 1.06 Mbps EV- EV-DO Rev. B 4.65 Mbps UMTS/HSDPA 3.91 Mbps Mobile WiMAX 14.1 Mbps Wi- Wi-Fi g 16 Mbps 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 (MB) Source: WiMAX Forum White Paper
  11. 11. WIMAX Is The BEST Choice To Deliver The Future ... TODAY • Most Spectrally Efficient • All IP Network • Cost-Effective Equipment Choices • Open Mobile Internet Business Model
  12. 12. WiMAX Delivers Highest Wireless & Mobile Broadband speeds • Today, Average speeds capability of 6 Mbps DL&512Kbps UL • Today Peak user speeds of 16Mbps DL&4Mbps UL . • Delivers user Mobile BB services at 3times the 3G ,now • 10 times scalability in performance with WiMAX releases like 802.16m • Highest Spectral efficiency thus WiMAX is 4G at 3G costs now and today • Operates in 2.3/2.5/3.5 Ghz bands already in just 2 years of it’s global launch • Conforms to IMT 2000 & ITU-R standards ITU- • All devices and equipments to date conform to TDD,Wave 2 Certified • It is All IP,Open Stds Complaint and supports Web2.0 & Streaming
  13. 13. WiMAX Global Momentum Continues to Build Deployments2 Over 450 Planned & 75 Commercial Fixed + Mobile 48 66 Networks In Over 135 Countries Price / Performance3 18 2-3x Today’s 3G Solutions And 99 73 Scalability To 10x In The Future 96 Vendors1 Over 20 Infrastructure Vendors Almost 100 Companies Offering Over 350 Client Device Designs! 1. Infrastructure: ABI Research, 2009; Client devices: Orr Technologies, 2009. 2. Informa Telecoms & Media, 2009 3. 2-3x based upon actual network performance in Korea, US, Russia, Taiwan & Japan; 10x per IEEE 802.16m Systems Requirements Document
  14. 14. Mobile WiMAX Being Deployed in 14 of Top 15 PC Markets USA 1.2 billion PCs deployed worldwide China Top 15 represent 71% of total Japan Germany All countries have 2.3/2.5 or 3.5GHz UK 16 IA OEMS supporting WiMAX today France Clear / US: 35+ models from 6 OEMs Russia Italy − 20+ available now South Korea UQ / Japan: 14 OEMs commit to embed Brazil Russia: 30 models available from 6 OEMs India Canada 100 notebook + netbook models Mexico by end of year Australia Spain Source: Computer Industry Almanac, Jan ‘09
  15. 15. Mobile Voice vs. Mobile Internet Traffic Equivalents* 1 Smartphone = 30 Handsets 1 Laptop = 450 Handsets A Network Optimized For Mobile Voice Cannot Handle High 1-5 Mbps Burst Traffic ~ 10 Kbps Constant Rate Numbers Of Mobile Internet Users More Spectrum Needed More Backhaul And Different Network Architecture Required Mobile Internet Requires a Technology Revolution * Source: Cisco, 2009
  16. 16. WiMAX Enables New Mobile Broadband Experience 3G PC Data Usage WiMAX Data Usage 10% 15% 20% 25% INACTIVE +3GB / mo. INACTIVE >10GB / mo. 25% 15% 0-500MB / mo. 1-3GB / mo. 50% 40% < 1GB / mo. 500MB- 10GB/mo. • Data usage expands when true broadband becomes available • WiMAX capable of providing primary broadband, not just mobile • 3G cost/bit and performance unable to meet BB experience expectations 3G Source: Major 3G service provider WiMAX Source: Major WiMAX service provider
  17. 17. Global Vision: 1 Billion “Connected Mobile Clients” in 5 Years Core Business Strategic Growth Areas CE Mobile Low- Low-Cost Embedded Client PCs (Internet) Internet PCs Devices Windows, Mac OS Microsoft Windows / Moblin Linux-based OS / Services Port of Choice Linux- One Architecture Across Multiple Mobile Client Platforms
  18. 18. PC Access to the Internet Has Gone Mobile … MU 400 Notebook Desktop 300 200 100 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Forecast Source: Gartner
  19. 19. … And Mobile PCs Will Be Connected to the Internet M Units % WAN Percent Connected to WAN Notebook Netbook WAN Connection is Essential Source: In-Stat . ABI & Intel Internal Estimates
  20. 20. … And These New Devices and Applications Are Rapidly Overloading Existing Networks Commerce Information Productivity Entertainment Medical Communication Education
  21. 21. Robust Dual- Mode HSDPA / WIBRO DEVICE Eco system is established Dual-  PCMCIA Card  USB Dongles  WiBro  WiBro + HSDPA DBDM  WiBro + T-DMB (mobile TV) DBDM, WiBro + MP3,  WiBro + Flash memory  Handsets  Triple mode (WiBro, EVDO, T- DMB), Voice call thru CDMA  Ultra Mobile PCs  WiBro, WiFi, WiBro, Bluetooth 2.0  WiBro, CDMA, 1xEVDO, Bluetooth  Embedded notebooks  Samsung: NT-Q35/C200  LGE: X-Note C1
  22. 22. A Diverse Offering of WiMAX Devices Available NOW
  23. 23. New affordable ways to compute & access the internet Intel’s ATOM processor has transformed devices so that they are small, smart & efficent affordable Nettops Netbooks Mobile Internet devices Affordable desktop computing for Internet companion device for easy Full access to the internet in a easy access to the internet access to the internet pocket able form factor (with voice) Internet content Internet content Entertainment consumption consumption Information E-mail and IM E-mail and IM Communication Social media Social media Productivity First time buyer PC density Smart phone device replacement* *2010 availability Personal Shared
  24. 24. A range of NetTop form factor WiMAX devices *Other brand and names are the property of their respective owners
  25. 25. By 2015 … INDIA would have …. 500 M Internet users 100 M Broadband connections 100 M Broadband Enabled devices 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 users bb connected devices bb subs
  26. 26. CLEAR WiMAX Portland Launched in U.S.
  27. 27. “ We actually welcome the use of heavy bandwidth data applications that conventional 3G network operators may discourage or simply can’t support. Scott Richardson Chief Strategy Officer, Clearwire WiMAX-Ready Clear Clear USB Clear Voice Clear Mobile Broadband Clear LAPTOPS MODEM MODEM ADAPTER ENTERTAINER SPOT • Over 35 notebook models from 6 manufacturers with over 20 in retail today • Plug in your Clear access device and surf, often in less than 60 seconds • Targeting coverage in over 80 markets by end of 2010 • Actual (typical) download speeds of 2-4 Mbps
  28. 28. Scartel’s Yota Service  Targeting over 40 of the largest cities in Russia  Carrying over 500TB of traffic per month TODAY 500TB  Average subscriber is consuming 9.5GB per month! − Twice that of DSL/Cable subscribers − Twice that of typical monthly data limit set by operators (5GB) (5  HTC GSM / WiMAX dual mode handset MOSCOW SAINT-PETERSBURG
  29. 29. OUTDOOR COVERAGE • First Mobile WiMAX network live in Europe • World’s first 3.5GHz carrier INDOOR COVERAGE • Installed over 100 base stations in 2 months; over 170 today • Nationwide coverage expected in 3 years • 8 Mbps downlink rates
  30. 30. Packet One, Malaysia: • Over 500 new subscribers / day • World’s largest 2.3 GHz deployment outside of So. Korea • Wireless @ KL provides free access to over 70,000 users 70,
  31. 31. Faster and Cheaper: Live speed tests on notebooks have reached about 16 Mbps down and 4 Mbps up, as simple, flat-rate pricing undercuts all current HSPA offers flat- • 13 PC manufacturers announced plans to offer embedded WiMAX notebooks • Launched with 3 major electronics retailer MVNOs • Unique railway and mobile application service offerings
  32. 32. Owner: SMiller • Pre-commercial network shows 3x the performance of HSPA • 30 MHz of spectrum in 2.5 GHz • Start in Taipei and then expand into northern Taiwan
  33. 33.  Phase 1: Serve over 250,000 subscribers across 80,000 villages 250, 80,  Phase 2: Serve 675,000 villages and ~ 1.1 million subscribers 675,  E-governance, telemedicine, distance education, e-travel, e-chaupal, e- e- e-chaupal, e- legal services, and e-media access e-  Plan to cover all urban India – 3 states already launched via franchisees
  34. 34. WiMAX Embedded Laptops & Netbooks Scaling to over 150 Models by EOY 2009 16 PC OEMs Have Announced Plans to Embed Intel’s WiMAX Modules Intel TEM Focus U.S.A. 35+ 35+ certified models from 6 OEMs 20+ 20+ models available in U.S. Channels NOW Japan 14 OEMs committed to embed WiMAX Russia 30+ 30+ Models Available from 6 OEMs
  35. 35. What is Intel Doing to Enable WiMAX? Wimax Silicon Ecosystem Development Interoperability Testing Intel Is Investing In … Equipment and Silicon Companies Service Providers Spectrum Auctions Infrastructure Companies Other brands and names are the property of their respective owners.
  36. 36. WiMAX and the Open Patent Alliance
  37. 37. WiMAX Today. A Vibrant Ecosystem Other brands and names are the property of their respective owners.
  38. 38. WiMAX Business Case Process Operator/ Market Inputs CapEx OpEx Market Spectrum Tower Rental Market Definition lease/purchase Operator/Market Inputs Site Acquisition Backhaul Service Definition / Operating Expenditure and Planning Usage Models Capital Expenditure Cell Site Marketing Penetration Model Demographic Information Electronics Backhaul and Core Subscriber Churn Network Acquisition Maintenance Customer Coverage and Retention Capacity OC12 Provisioning Administrative / Throughput / Overhead Oversubscription Air Link Components RF Planning Airlink Components CPE Cost CPE Airlink RF RAN CPE Subsidy Channel Model Cell Site Costs RAN CPE Installation Total Traffic Site Acquisition CPE Cost CPE Refresh Rate Channel Model Antenna’s Mix Software Traffic Growth Cabling Maintenance Outputs Software Upgrade Core Infrastructure Financial Market Outputs Benchmark Free Cash Flow NPV Discounted Cash Flow EBITDA Multiple Normalized OpEx Normalized CapEx 38 CCPU CPGA
  39. 39. Executive Summary of a WiMax India Operator • Top 250cities of India  in phase 1 coverage in first 4 years • WiMAX business model by WiMax Forum and strategic ecosystem players  Link /system level studies, real life device performance  Local operating expenses, ecosystem , device availability  Market data collected from vendors, carriers etc  one of the most attractive case for wireless broadband driven by unique factors :  population density of India, reduces coverage need BTS  Presence of Cell towers reduces cost of putting new sites  Attractive CapEx outlay &Attractive device prices  Availability of fiber reduces OpEx/backhaul cost of the model OpEx/backhaul  Very low Cost Per Gross Add  Prepaid model reduces working capital requirements  Access to one of the largest middle class populations of the world  Embedded Intel NB push will enable market even further -no subsidy market  Abundant international bandwidth available at competitive rates 39
  40. 40. Capacity of Single Operator for WiMax in 20 Mhz  Single WiMax Operator in India •potential to serve upto 28 Million WiMax Subscribers meeting TRAI specified norms Subscribers will range from • users of embedded Notebooks, Desktops, PC Cards, Smart phones and Enriched phones  A New range of devices such as Netbooks , Nettops will Likely Push WiMax adoption Even Higher 40
  41. 41. SLA Indicators considered in Biz Case • ARPU offering assumes unlimited ( all you can eat) nomadic and mobile broadband data plan • Model assumes no incremental revenue from VOIP • Content /services revenue not considered into business case, only subscription revenue taken into account • Model does not take into account wholesale/resale offerings on MVNO basis • ARPU does not include VAT • 50% decline in ARPU over 10 Years is assumed, while QOS on a per subscriber basis is consistently increased • Blended ARPU ~ $17 , reducing to ~$8 by year 10
  42. 42. Financials of WiMax Operator Business Case Parameter Values Coverage Timeline Phase 1 : 2010 to 2013, Phase 2 : 2014-2016, Phase 3: 2016- 2018 Phase 1 Coverage Top 250 cities Covered ( 2010 to 2013) Coverage BTS – Phase I ~14K Coverage BTS required for covering 17K sq Km. Estimated Subscriber Capacity of 28 Mil in the network Network Loading Network Loading of 40% assumed in the business model at the end of Phase I – End of Year 2013 EBITDA Breakeven ( Phase 1) Year 1 Cum FCF Breakeven ( Phase 1) Year 3 Discounted CF Breakeven Year 4 ( Phase 1) Cumulative CapEx ( Phase 1) $ 600 Mil - end of year 2013 Total Revenue ( Phase 1) $1.4 Billion – end of year 2013
  43. 43. WiMAX No longer next generation; here and now
  44. 44. Thank You
  45. 45. Backup
  46. 46. LTE Claims & Reality UPGRADE FALSE Complete forklift upgrade from RAN to Core LTE is a simple upgrade to 3G FALSE LTE needs wide FDD channels, or must SPECTRUM re-farm existing spectrum w/o compromising current LTE has plenty of spectrum services TBD Until IPR is resolved, depth and breadth DEVICE COST of devices suppliers limited. Chipsets burdened with legacy multimode. Plethora of devices will be there FALSE Standard not complete. Multi-year TIMING WiMAX Time-to-Market advantage and roadmap to .16m will provide a sustained lead over LTE will be ready when the market is alternatives. ready
  47. 47. Owner: ML WIMAX in Top PC Markets U.S. Clearwire, DigitalBridge, Towerstream, Xanadaoo & dozens of others Japan UQ soft launch Feb – fastest global network with up to 40Mbps downlink Germany DBD in market today with fixed/city wide hotspot; Half dozen others in service or planned UK Freedom 4, UK Broadband, Irish Broadband & almost dozen others in market today; 2.5GHz auction this year France Bollore deploying fixed and city wide hotspots; 5 others operators across France Russia 13 carriers include Scartel & Comstar deploying Fixed/Mobile networks Italy 10 carriers including AriaDSL launching fixed/city wide hotspots South Korea KT & SKT in market today with mobile Brazil Embartel, Telefonica, Brasil Telecom, TVA & others in market today with fixed, growing city wide hotspots to mobile India BSNL deploying today in 25,000 villages; auction in H1’09 for 2.3/5GHz Mexico 7 carriers including MVS deploying today fixed/city wide hotspot Australia 6 carriers today including Unwired expanding coverage Spain Iberbanda & NeoSky deploying fixed, city wide hotspot and mobile
  48. 48. Data Traffic is Taking Over Voice Networks Percentage of Overall Traffic 100% 100% 80% DATA 60% 40% 40% VOICE 20% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Cisco
  49. 49. Mobile WiMAX: the Best of Available Options Peak Data Rate RAN Access Technology Downlink Uplink Latency WiMAX Rel 1.0 (.16e) 40 Mbps 10 Mbps* 40 ms TDD (2:1 Ratio) 10 MHz 2x2 MIMO 1x2 cMIMO Today HSPA (today) 2x5 MHz 14 Mbps 2 Mbps 50-250 ms HSUPA 2x5 MHz 14 Mbps 5.8 Mbps 50-250 ms HSPA+ 2x5 MHz Rel 7 21 Mbps 5.8 Mbps 50-250 ms + 64 QAM HSPA+ 2x5 MHz 21 Mbps 42 11.6Mbps 5.8 Mbps 50-250 ms Future MIMO*+64QAMdownlink MIMO+64QAM downlink HSPA+ 2x10 MHz Rel 9 42 Mbps 84 11.6 Mbps 23 Mbps ? MIMO*+64QAMdownlink MIMO+64QAM downlink LTE (Rel 8) 2x5MHz 43.2 Mbps 21.6 Mbps 30 ms 2x2 MIMO Mobile WiMAX™ 2.0 300+ Mbps 112 Mbps < 30 ms (802.16m) 2x20 MHz 4x4 MIMO 2x4 MIMO * Signals Ahead, HSPA+: So Many Options, So Little Time, April 2009
  50. 50. Lower IPR is Key to Device Proliferation Relative IPR New Cost Entrants Don’t Enter Maximum Cost Do Bearable Enter Leading Incumbents Minimum Relative IPR Strength Needed IPR Strength
  51. 51. Mobile Broadband Technology Open Vision Well defined interfaces At all levels for a simple Mobile Internet Services All IP Architecture 3GPP/3GPP2 Specifications) (Interworking supported in NWG Specifications WiMAX Forum Flexible Deployment IETF based protocols Architectures GPP/3GPP2 Minimized number of All- All-IP Core Networks Layers and protocols with Interworking for backend systems re-use re- Message based control Signaling for flexibility All- All-IP Flexible RANs Retail model enabled by Standards Industry certification profiles 802.16 WiMAX IEEE 802. + Inexpensive Radios OFDM+MIMO to Optimize bandwidth efficiency Innovation at all levels
  52. 52. WiMAX or LTE = Same Level of Upgrade 2G, 3G Network (GSM, EV-DO, HSPA) 2G, 3G Core Network SGSN MGW GGSN Upgrade core network to New data overlay network support more IP data traffic 4G Network: All IP Core (WiMAX or LTE) SAE GW PCRF HSS MME/UPE OCS Radio Access Network (RAN): Core Network Equipment > 90-95% of new CapEx* < 10% of new CapEx* Both WiMAX & LTE require new RAN equipment & devices. Neither is “backward compatible” to 3G. Both can interwork well with existing 2G, 3G networks. * Intel estimates. Percentage varies based upon the operator’s existing network.
  53. 53. Why do we need +2 Mbps Mobile broadband? +2 Internet is getting more complex with rich multimedia Mobile Internet Trends Web pages getting more complex  Avg web page size has tripled in past 5 years  +75% HTTP requests from images, 75%  +90% of web pages have images today 90% Video and HD are here  Average file size on the web : 10 MBytes  Video accounts for ~99% of all bytes transferred ~99% Laptop users account for  And they are growing in size and length; 90% of 90% >80% of KT WiBro videos are +3min, up from under 1 min in ‘97 +3 ‘97 data access*  Quality is degrading Thus Mobile Internet Requires Multi-Mbps Connection Per User and WiMAX meets and far exceeds this need Other brands and names are the property of their respective owners. *Source: KT Q1’08. *Forrester Research
  54. 54. What is the Wireless Broadband killer application?* sina.com.cn 播客最热机构风 PersianBlog.Com 云榜单 设定本页为浏览 器首页 Anything Internet Can Provide & More
  55. 55. The Mobile Internet experience is not simple Radio Access 4G RF Network + 4G Devices WiMAX + Customer Customer Experience Experience Multimedia Content + Open Applications